I think the Political Industrial Complex on the right is still trying to take control of the Tea Party, and is missing the point of the movement. I have said for a year this is a libertarian movement, not a social conservative movement. And two recent articles make the point quite clearly.

First, via RCP, there is this great USA Today article about how the only ‘civil war’ in the GOP, or in the country, is between the rising tide of voter anger with DC and the dinosaurs of the entrenched Political Industrial Complex:

Powell is right. The political center has shifted. Polls show that independents have moved right and are staying there. A recent one, conducted by Democratic pollster Doug Schoen in late August for the conservative Independent Women’s Voice, calls it a “fundamental realignment” as independents now lean to the right by 2 to 1. The survey asked independents what they would like candidates to do. The list of answers is clear: “Decrease the size and scope of government, cut spending and taxes, balance the budget, reduce the federal debt, reduce the power of special interests and unions, repeal and replace the healthcare legislation, and decrease partisanship.”

…

Notice what’s not on that list: climate change, financial regulation, bank bailouts, auto bailouts, troop surges, lawsuits on immigration reform, and repealing “don’t ask, don’t tell.”

Other things are also not on the list: ending abortion (though the making sure no dollars come from the feds for abortions will pass), forcing creationism on schools (though I would bet freedom to pray would be part of rolling back the government), etc. Anything that hints at an intrusive government pushing conservative social values is not a priority. The nation wants the government pared down to its minimum size needed. On the list: decrease partisanship – i.e., build consensus. It screams “more RINOs and DINOs and independents please“.

There is another article that brings this home by identifying ‘5 things [social] conservatives should be wary of in the Tea Party‘. Items #1 and #2 distill out the truth quite nicely:

1. Lack of reverence for conservative leaders and organizations. It has been my observation that many of today’s new activists are quick to conflate being “old” with being part the establishment. This is probably natural, but it is not always helpful. To be sure, some conservative leaders have been corrupted or co-opted.

…

2. A move away from social conservatism. Just as the rise of Christian conservatives in the late 1970s and 1980s profoundly changed the conservative movement, the Tea Party has the potential to change it once again, possibly making it more libertarian. While many Tea Partiers are full-spectrum conservatives, it’s fair to say that government spending and the failed economy are the galvanizing forces right now.

I think #1 shows why the movement is not being led by Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham or Mark Levin. They are cheerleaders, but not seen as the leaders. Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin get the nod as being the visionaries of the movement, as do all the elected candidates running for office across the country. They are the movement and will decide priorities and focus.

#2 is just a reminder that the common ground of this movement is limited and does not extend too far to the right. This has been from the beginning a centrist movement and a centrist shift. It was unique in that it grew spontaneously from those who never had been politically active before.

Remember, I am pro-life and against embryonic stem cell research, and I really wish the latter was on the agenda. But I come at it from a balance of scientific and moral opposition – one that uses science to prove the lives being destroyed for spare parts are human individuals. Few realize to this day that science and existing law regarding DNA testing can prove beyond doubt embryos are viable human beings. And the lack of results in embryonic research prove the claims of many of us that humanity is maybe a century away from manipulating cells at this level, while adult stem cell research keeps producing amazing results each and every year. This matter will have to be pushed carefully in proscribing the limits of government. To have a even a hearing, though, we need the Tea Party movement to win.

As the first article notes there is no battle going on in the movement, the consensus of its focus and wrath is quite clear:

Despite what the White House says, the Tea Party agenda is more mainstream than the Obama agenda. That’s why, by a 52-to-40 margin, a majority of likely voters say their views are closer to Sarah Palin’s than to President Obama’s, according to Rasmussen Reports.

Among all Americans, the federal debt now has become the “top perceived threat” to the future of our nation—even topping terrorism in Gallup polls from this summer—driven by Tea Party supporters’ heightened concerns about fiscal irresponsibility. The national debt has become its own national security issue.

…

What Obama doesn’t seem to see is that there’s already a consensus, a new American mainstream centered on the need for reining in government taxing and spending, ending the squabbling, and reforming entitlements. The White House doesn’t realize that the “war” is over. The voters won.

It’s not just the White House still trying to adjust to this Brave New Country out there. It is the entire Political Industrial Complex – who still don’t truly see what is coming.

Tags: Beck, Conservatism, Libertarian, Palin, Political Industrial Complex, Social, Tea Party

Since I have been for removing the Democrats in power and not for any specific group on the right, I have to break all my earlier complaints with Crist and Murkowski and others who could not listen to the voters and go with the idea of a Mike Castle write-in campaign. This is more in line with my support for Joe Leiberman, when he bolted the Dems after his primary loss.

As with then, the two primary candidates available are damaged goods. Someone asked me in the comments why I have been hard on O’Donnell over her falsifying campaign finance records. My answer was simple – I have not tossed out my principles or my views on the equal and fair application of the law for political power. Or worse, simply to be part of the latest political wave. I support every other Tea Party candidate out there, have issues with none of them. But as details have come out about O’Donnell’s misuse of campaign funds, I have concluded we cannot sell out our values and morals and honor for political gain.

Worse yet, the GOP & O’Donnell are trying to deflect from her illegal actions by admitting she had ‘mortgage’ problems back in the day. She was doing some kind of pro bono advertising work for someone or something. LOL! Good lord, that is the lamest excuse to break the law I have ever heard – and irrelevant. O’Donnell lied on government forms and used campaign money to feed herself, travel and pay her rent. That is all illegal. We don’t need more crooked people in Congress who skate by the laws the rest of us have to follow – got enough of those already.

So my choice is between a far left candidate who will keep Harry Reid in power, a serial misleader who admits she falsified government forms and a good man who votes center left verses more center right – but who has pledged to vote for a GOP senate leader and to repeal Obamacare.

I take the 3rd option. Mike Castle should run and let the entire population of DE chose who they want. My guess is he will blow out the other two easily, since they are currently in a battle to see who is the worst choice. I feel for DE, because all year it has been who is the worse choice. But now, with CA and WA possibly slipping away from the GOP and the Senate in the balance, not to mention my own personal values when it comes to equal application of our laws, I have no choice but to come out in support of a Mike Castle write-in campaign.

As for the Tea Party organizations and the GOP – when you lay down with mangy dogs you get the mange. You should never have been willing to ignore and accept someone who willfully broke laws and lied on government forms to line her pockets – no matter WHAT the rational. Maybe instead of playing Good Samaritan, O’Donnell should have been working? Whatever, we now see your standards are as low as all other political parties. You will ignore anything to gain power. If I have to chose between my values or someone who votes more left than I like, I pick the center left candidate. Every time. The law is the law, and it applies to all. And my values are worth more than one election race.

Tags: GOP, Mike Castle, O'Donnell, Tea Party, Write-In Campaign

Lame PR Stunts. That is all this liberal, disconnected and foolish Congress has been about under President Obama. Much of it is Obama’s fault, being inexperienced and not knowing how to reign in Congress or how to solve the nation’s challenges. It seems his golf game is now his escape mechanism from reality.

But the Democrat Congress underlined what an inept joke they are by bringing a joker to testify as if he was a conservative speaker.

Ditching his “prepared” testimony, Colbert delivered a punch-lined discourse on his chief qualification as an expert on the issue: A 10-hour stint working the fields. Staying in the character of a faux TV newsman, he also threw in a few one-liners more suitable for a late-night show on Comedy Central or Cinemax than morning C-SPAN.

“No doubt we just locked up the Comedy Channel vote,” Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis chided. “My opinion, we should forget social satirists. Given Congress’ low approval, maybe we should invite the ‘Glee’ cast to perform next.”

…

While Colbert might have killed it for his “nation” of TV followers, he bombed with political strategists and analysts in both parties.

For a Democratic majority that has had difficulty demonstrating to voters that its policies are addressing their needs, Colbert provided another day off message and, perhaps, an emblem of a party that has lost its footing as it limps toward a preelection adjournment.

Was it ‘bring in the clowns day’ – or just a getting together for famous clowns (Congress being littered with them). Why would anyone think Congress is an inept waste of time with this stupid stunt? It sure removed any hesitation to vote this crop of fools out.

Even the compliant media began to realize this was a horrible insult to serious Americans facing serious challenges. Follow the link if you think you can stomach watching this mess. Watch the liberals make a joke out our constitutional form of government, our great nation. If they are going to have actors testify and make things up – do we really need a full time Congress (and its price tag)?

And these people are the ones supposedly coming to fix our health care!

We are living in exciting times. This election cycle Washington DC is going to have its bell rung by all those average Americans who reside, work and live out their lives outside the beltway. Having grown up inside the DC beltway (literally and politically) I cannot express how exciting and moving this election year has become. When you watch for decades as power becomes entrenched and people are too busy to keep an eye on all the trouble an army of bureaucrats can create running around trying to play God, it is refreshing to see a national realization that it is time for change. Real Change.

President Obama campaigned on changing America. John McCain campaigned on changing DC. We should have been paying closer attention to the nuance and what it implied.

in 2009, after 8 weary years of fighting wars (which we are still winning) and 8 years of political finger pointing (to this day the GOP will not admit run away spending was the fault of the GOP Congress, not President Bush who proposed minimal growth in discretionary spending year in and year out), the nation decided to gamble on the Democrats. We forgot that, as bad as the GOP was, the Democrats had even worse ideas and intentions.

But now we have a clear understanding of what we must do. And it is laid out in a series of great web videos/ads that reflect the fact that we are not going to go back to the Bush days – we are going back to the Reagan Revolution!

First, a trip down memory lane:

And now, the image of today:

And finally, the rumble of a sea change building as we head into one of the most historic elections in living memory:

This call to arms is happening across the nation, and is now a feature of each campaign – as is clearly shown in the recent CO senate debates:

“We have expressed our opinions to Washington, D.C.,” Buck began.

“We have let them know when they were running up debt that we didn’t want it anymore. We told them to get off the back of small business…. When they tried to pass the nationalized health care bill, we sent them e-mails. We told them we need to secure our borders.”

Buck’s supporters at the debate, held in a deeply conservative community, had raucously cheered and jeered over the previous hour. They fell into silence as he enumerated their grievances. Then he did everything but pass out the pitchforks. “They have heard us; they heard us,” he continued. “But they ignored us. And come November 2, folks, they will ignore us no more.”

In that cri de coeur, Buck encapsulated the energy, confidence, and revolutionary zeal crackling through the huge class of GOP Senate challengers now approaching the Capitol from all points on the map.

The article goes on to claim this is a conservative movement, but if one takes the time to see what is ignited and is driving this movement it is a libertarian march on DC. The Reagan comment about DC elites deciding what is right or wrong for everyone is a non-partisan observation. Some conservatives have misread the movement and have tried to co-opt it. As long as the plan is to reign in and shrink government, the movement holds together.

A new morning in America is coming – but only if those attempting to lead the charge remember the reason for this movement. We are rising up to dismantle government and allow all Americans to pursue Life, Liberty and Happiness as they see fit, so long as they respect the rights of others. The grand progressive experiment is over, now is a time to get back to the grand experiment that is America.

Tags: 2010 Elections, Morning in America, Mourning In America, Tsunami

The bad news for Dems just keeps on coming. If you look at the RCP House Map today you find the GOP with 206 seats in their lean-strong categories (click to enlarge).

This includes picking up 31 Democrat seats in the ‘leans GOP‘ and ‘likely GOP‘ groupings. As I have watched the polls shift right all year I realize the battle this cycle is not really in the toss up group (today showing a potential to pick up 37 D seats) but is actually raging in the ‘leans Dem‘ turf. When you combine the total number of additional Dem seats in play in these two groups you get 37 +28 = 65 seats in jeopardy.

This means 65 + 31 = 96 Dem seats are on the line right now. Which makes this poll data truly stunning:

We looked at the sample in the 66 Democratic INCUMBENT districts that Charlie Cook lists as either toss-up or leaning Democratic at the time of the survey. In that key crosstab of Swing Democratic Incumbent Seats, the Republican lead grows to 49%-31% on the generic ballot. That is a very powerful crosstab that says the wave is coming.

(H/T Ed Morrissey) RCP has 65, Cook has 66 – so close enough, I will go with RCP’s numbers.

I have been predicting a wipe out since February, but even I was not going to predict an 80+ seat take over by the GOP. But right now it looks very possible. Assuming the GOP loses the 3 seats RCP has listed in the likely Dem or leans Dem categories, then that equates to a possible 62 seat pick up across the toss up and leans Dem races RCP is currently watching.

If the GOP really is holding +18% lead in these districts, I can see the GOP picking up well over 80% of these seats, but let’s tone down our excitement a bit and go with 80%. That equates to a 50 seat pick up for the GOP, on top of the 31 Democrat seats already in the GOP column.

Shazam – an 81 seat pick up! I am truly amazed.

Update: Pew is out with another nail in the coffin of the current Democrat Congress

Tags: 2010 Elections, GOP Landslide, House

Well, my prediction that WI would be shifted into the ‘leans GOP‘ category within the week was way off – it happened within 24 hours. RCP now has the GOP at 46 seats, the Dems at 48 (with DE in hand). But a new poll out in the NY-Special election showing a 1% race has Hillary’s old seat in jeopardy. The RCP senate map has been losing all its blue the past month, with WV now a toss up and WI now a GOP pickup, it is clear the November Tsunami is still rising up as we get closer and closer to November 2nd.

To put the DE Senate race is blunt perspective, Christine O’Donnell has about as much chance of winning her senate race as Blanche Lincoln has of winning hers. I am with Jay Cost here – focus our energies on WA, WV, CA and CT.

[Click image to see more excellent patriotic artwork]

For those on the right who think the GOP pledge does not go far enough to the right – thanks for standing up and letting us know who not to follow. Any element of the conservative movement that proposes to implode by pushing America outside its comfort zone and off its priorities the way Obama, Pelosi and Reid did is not someone to lead this nation forward. There is no reason to repeat the mistakes the liberals made and many on the right made leading into 2006 and 2008.

The pledge (full text here) looks to be a good balance of where to redirect our collective focus. This collective focus has been precisely scoped to not go outside common ground where consensus cannot be won with the broad middle of America. Its stays out of the fringes. But more than that, the pledge’s underlying premise is small, nonintrusive government. That libertarian streak throughout is why it holds together. I would like to echo the National Review Editorial here and note this is more than a contract with America:

The pledge is bolder. The Contract with America merely promised to hold votes on popular bills that had been bottled up during decades of Democratic control of the House. The pledge commits Republicans to working toward a broad conservative agenda that, if implemented, would make the federal government significantly smaller, Congress more accountable, and America more prosperous.

Emphasis mine. This last swing of the hyper-partisan pendulum we’ve been experiencing the last two years, which drastically thrust America to the left, was the straw that broke the People’s backs. The nation has finally accepted the idea a limited and constrained government is better than an all-intrusive, heavy-handed, busy-body government – whether the thrust behind the policies is liberal or conservative. Debate on how far and how fast to take these national objectives will consume us for many years. But it will be a debate with a direction acceptable to most Americans and not some social experiment backed by a minority.

The top priority is to get the government out of the way of the private sector so our economy can grow and create good jobs again. This area of the Pledge has the fewest specific actions listed, mainly because many other aspects of The Pledge will also have positive effects on businesses and the economy (e.g., lowering taxes, repealing and replacing Obamacare, shrinking the government and thus reducing deficits and debt). It is a recognition that government cannot do much more than get out of the way of the economy. Therefore a short list of actions to pull government’s jack boot from the economy’s neck is the right answer.

The longest list of actions is associated with trimming and fixing government. From overhauling Freddia Mac and Fannie Mae, to ending the failed stimulus bills that are still wasting money, to ending TARP and bailouts – the main thrust of the Pledge is healing our country by killing off the cancer of out-of-control government. There are so many things that the government needs to stop doing that this effort to get government back in shape will bear fruit for years and years to come. The important part of this is to make sure the Americans now working for the government are not punished or negatively impacted while this takes place. The compassionate path is to close down filling jobs or adding new ones, and let attrition and a growing private sector consume the fat of government over time.

I like the Pledge a lot. I think there is a lot for the broad center and the right to jointly cheer and support. There will be those who need to calibrate their expectations and there will be compromises. Lots and lots of compromises. But the debate will be on how far or fast to go – not which direction we will be heading.

No one will buy the claim a measured pace towards a libertarian balance of government and private sector is the same as being a big government liberal. There is no coherent argument there anymore. We are all RINO’s, because we are all Americans first, with diverse and independent views that can be handled with respect and a modicum of professionalism.

That is another trait we can dump that the Dems brought us. We don’t need conservative versions of snarky Carville’s and Begala’s – we need more Reagan’s, W Bush, Condi Rices, etc. Keep it classy folks.

Gallup has some stunning polls out today, which underline once again why 2010 is going to be as bad or worse than 1994 for the Democrat Party. When the nation says it aligns with the GOP on the role of government, you know the ‘Big Government Party” Dems are in serious trouble (click to enlarge):

It seems the GOP is also getting the nod on better values as well.

Why I maintain 2010 is going to be a lot worse for Dems than 1994 is the back drop of a horrible economy this cycle. When Clinton’s Democrat Party was whacked for over reaching (on health care primarily, but also on taxes, deficits, etc) the US economy was on fire. That muted the backlash. But even then, Clinton had to declare the era of ‘big government’ over and begin acting like a deficit hawk. To this day the Dems claim the GOPs’ successful efforts to force Clinton into signing balanced budgets prove they are the party of fiscal responsibility.

For the 2010 cycle there is no way for Obama to pretend he is fiscally responsible. His deficits will in four years equal the total amount of debt this nation piled up over 225 years – no minor issue. Obama and the Dems also committed the further sin of actually passing a government take over of health care, and are trying to understand why they cannot let the Bush tax cuts expire next year!

All in all, these factors indicate 2010 will make 1994 look quaint in comparison. Which is why I have never been surprised to see so many Democrats sinking under the voter backlash wave this year. Since Scott Brown’s win in MA early this year I have stated the Dems would pay a huge price for Obamacare. This is what I said right after Brown’s win:

We have heard the government run liberal fantasies. We reject them. We heard and understood. We know better. Now you listen DC!

You can pass some small health care solutions, ones there are broad agreements on. The Reps and Indies have to go along or else that wave of anger that is still building after it hit NJ, VA and MA will be coming for them.

…

If DC Dems are unwilling to use this lucky lesson well, then they deserve twice the heat in November. They were, in a sadly ironic way, given a huge gift by the passing of Ted Kennedy. If they had not been forced into this special election in MA, then they would still be blissfully ignorant of their pending demise.

The Dems did not listen and here we are with November elections a few short weeks away.

BTW, want another hint why Gallup is underplaying the backlash here? These are polls of adults – not registered voters or likely voters. If you factor in the intensity gap into those results I would bet the gap opens up from GOP +8 to GOP +16.

Tags: 1994 Elections, 2010 Elections, Gallup, GOP Gains

It is one thing to see the conditions for massive and historic election wave falling into place and showing up in the generic polls. It is another experience all together to see surprise races popping up like dandelions in the spring. The polling news from the last two days is just a wonder to see. Here is a long list of amazing poll news from the first half of this week:

WV Senate Seat Tilts Toward GOP
WI Senate About To Tip Towards GOP
In New York, GOP’s Paladino Trails Cuomo By Only 6? Only 6?!?
One New York House Seat, Looking Like a GOP Pickup
09:WA-09: Adam Smith At Risk?
Pollster Terry Madonna Ponders Pennsylvania ‘Landslide’
77% Disapprove Of Democrat Congress
Poll Shows Miller With Big Lead Over Murkowski
Even More Here!

It still amazes me to see states like WI, WV, WA, NV, CO, CA all toss ups in the senate (with WI on the brink of moving into the lean-GOP category within a week). And this barely touches on the state level breaking news (governors, state houses, etc).

When Scott Brown won the MA senate special election riding a never before seen wave of voter anger, the Democrats were given their warning shot. What sealed their fate this November was the way they ignored this warning and then thumbed their noses at the voters and rammed through Obamacare in one of the ugliest, most hyper-partisan spectacles ever seen in the swamps of DC. That moment of rejecting the the will of the voter unleashed this tsunami now consuming incumbents, taking mostly Democrats in it wake.

The Democrats should have listened to the voters, and not the inexperienced but seductive siren song that was coming out of the White House. All that power they were promised has turned to bitter ash.

Update: Reader Kathie makes a very astute observation about what Obama and the Dems are responsible for:

Obama rightly notes that he was handed a terrible economy. But now we learn that the recession he inherited was just five months away from being over when he took office. So while Obama doesn’t own the recession in any way, shape or form, he certainly owns the recovery, which is now well into its 15th month.

Very true. The great recession ended (supposedly) in the summer of 2009, which gave the Democrats plenty of time to stimulate a recovery. Except we know that their Keynesian approach was a massive failure, trickling out government largesse too slowly to do any good, and instead running up massive deficits. The Dems may have received less backlash to Obamacare if the economy was growing, but that is all speculation. Reality is what it is, and the Democrats are heading for a massive blow come this November.

Tags: 2010 Elections, Polls