It seems the GOP could actually pull off a Senate take over without the DE seat in play, now that a Daily KOS/PPP poll shows incumbent democrat Russ Feingold behind his GOP opponent by 11% and polling at a sure-to-lose 41% (beyond political death for any incumbent):

Ron Johnson (R) 52 (43)
Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 41 (45)

An enormous enthusiasm gap, coupled with a Republican nominee fresh from a decisive primary win and unsullied by the primary process, has catapulted Republican nominee Ron Johnson to a double-digit advantage over incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold, according to PPP’s poll of the state on behalf of Daily Kos.

RCP still has this race a toss up only because a very stale July 12th poll with Feingold +2% is still in their equation. If you factor out this stale data, Johnson leads Feingold by an average of 9%, with his poll numbers around 51.5% and Feingold at 42.5%. That puts this race easily in the lean GOP category.

That would put the Senate at 48 Dems solid, likely or leans and 46 GOP solid, likely or leans – with 6 toss ups. RCP already factored DE into the likely Dem grouping, so the GOP is within striking distance. After WI I still expect to see CO and IL tilt over to the GOP side. That would tie up the two parties with 48 each, and leave CA, WA, WV and NV in the toss up group. The GOP should be able to snag both WV and NV. Which brings the senate back down to CA and WA. Everyone needs to be supporting Rossi in WA to make sure he pulls out the big win for the GOP, and CA will be the icing on the cake.

I predicted in early July the WV special election to fill the late Senator Byrd’s seat would go GOP:

Last week I predicted there would be a special election in the fall for the late Robert Byrd’s seat and it would make a GOP take over of the Senate all but certain. I predicted this because if there wasn’t there would be no more Democrat party in West-By-Golly Virginia.

Looks like at least this time my prediction is true.

PPP’s first look at the West Virginia Senate contest finds a very tight race with John Raese [R] up 46-43 on Joe Manchin [D], a result within the poll’s margin of error.

Yeah, there really is a historic backlash heading towards November.

Look, we all make mistakes. It is really important that people admit when they are fooled into believing something or in someone based on desire instead of facts. Those who opposed Obama expect this from independents and others who mistakenly put their faith in Obama’s words during the campaign. We railed about the lack of vetting when the media promoted his flawed and inexperienced candidacy. We should expect the same honest assessment from those – including Governor Palin and Senator DeMint – who put their reputations on the line with Christine O”Donnell.

O’Donnell spouts a lot of words and phrases that echo the Tea Party and GOP priorities this year. But she also has been skirting the laws and filing misleading paperwork and financial statements. Instead of representing the best of America, she at times reflects the worst of DC. Just watch this fair and damning CNN piece:

The flap now coming into the public about her campaign finance shenanigans is devastating to the broader Tea Party, GOP and conservative cause. There is no getting around it any more. Christine O’Donnell does not deserve the backing of these organizations and supporters. In fact, she may not deserve to be claim any association with the good, hard working people trying to take back their country from people who flaunt the laws and misuse the public trust.

We cannot allow candidates to shrug off the rules. This is how you get decorated war veterans like Randy “Duke” Cunningham find themselves in jail for abusing his congressional seat. We let bad behavior get a pass, until it grows into corruption.

This kind of false reporting is a special affront to us small business owners and federal contractors who follow the financial reporting rules to the ‘T’. While I disagree with much of my corporate reporting requirements, I know some level of honest reporting is required to avoid charlatans and crooks from ripping people or the tax payers off. If O’Donnell cannot face this, admit she screwed up and promise to make reparations, then she is just another slick-dodging pol – and does not deserve the support of the Tea Party movement.

Is the price of DC power really worth this?

Tags: Campaign Funds, Christine O'Donnell, Financial Claims

Not everyone works hard and makes the right choices through life to support themselves and their families. Not everyone lives within their means and therefore can make it through the lean times as well as the good ones. But those who do so are not evil, and they surely do not have a debt they owe to society for surviving or succeeding. It would seem those who need help correcting their mistakes are the ones who should be indebted for any assistance they receive to get them back on their feet. Help in these cases is not an entitlement or a right – but a gift.

I don’t see the far left ever breaking the code on this one, and so we get government intervention and control, instead of personal intervention and self control.

A brief aside here: You know it always is ironic to me how those who support the Science of Evolution are the ones so resistant to letting events and individual choices and decisions drive society. It seems evolution (or the free market) is not good for humanity, therefore it must be controlled by government. Then you have those who shun the idea of evolutionary forces and science, but who turn out to be the ones who most strongly advocate the role of the free market and individual decisions in society. Maybe it has to do with the fact one group tends to bow down to the almighty government, and the other tends to recognize the almighty creator?? Just some food for thought.

Anyway, back to the topic of this post. The liberal Democrat Leaders in Congress claimed we would have to wait until Obamacare started being put in place before we would know all the impacts and ramifications. Just like idiotic price controls on gas, the Obamacare approach is to offer infinite services while controlling what the market is allowed to charge. It is a well documented recipe for disaster. Here is how history adjudicated the Democrats’ and Carter’s liberal failures on energy in the 1970’s:

The US government imposed price controls on gasoline and oil following the announcement [of OPEC reductions in oil production], which had the effect of causing shortages and long lines for gasoline. The lines were quelled through the lifting of price controls on gasoline, although oil controls remained until Reagan’s presidency. Significant government borrowing helped keep interest rates high relative to inflation.[citation needed] Carter told Americans that the energy crisis was “a clear and present danger to our nation” and “the moral equivalent of war” and drew out a plan he thought would address it. Carter said that world oil supply would probably only be able to keep up with Americans’ demand for six to eight more years.

Sounds eerily familiar, with all that deficit spending. In fact, government price controls on oil and gas produced such horrible results, the events of this time are considered in this wikipedia entry to be the classic example of what happens when government (not the market) dictates prices for goods and services:

A classic example of how price controls cause shortages was during the Arab oil embargo between October 19, 1973 and March 17, 1974. Long lines of cars and trucks quickly appeared at retail gas stations in the U.S. and some stations closed because of a shortage of fuel at the low price set by the U.S. Cost of Living Council. The fixed price was below what the market would otherwise bear and, as a result, the inventory disappeared. It made no difference whether prices were voluntarily or involuntarily posted below the market clearing price. Scarcity resulted in either case. Price controls fail to achieve their proximate aim, which is to reduce prices paid by retail consumers, but such controls do manage to reduce supply. When price controls on gasoline were lifted, the shortage ended and the long lines of cars at gas pumps disappeared.

Those who ignore history are sentenced to repeat its mistakes. Liberals are incapable of grasping the idea that humanity can lead itself into the future, and it is better to let the dynamic forces of individual choices find its way forward than to have a bunch of over-sized egos attempt to think for everyone else.

Thus we come to the first brown and dead shoots of Obamacare, arising from the scorched-earth legislation:

Some of the country’s most prominent health insurance companies have decided to stop offering new child-only plans, rather than comply with rules in the new health-care law that will require such plans to start accepting children with preexisting medical conditions after Sept. 23.

…

Three insurers – WellPoint, Cigna and CoventryOne – all cited uncertainty in the health insurance market for their decisions. That incertitude and the resulting decision of other insurers to drop their child-only plans, according to WellPoint spokeswoman Kristin Binns, “has created an unlevel competitive environment.”

Emphasis mine. The law of unexplored consequences at work again. Of course companies will be looking for ways to compete on price and services. But they have to do it in a way that minimizes or neutralizes cost risks – or else they will go out of business if they offer something that turns into out-of-control costs. That means offering less flexibility overall, because the people most likely to rush to the new plans are the most expensive to cover:

Robert Zirkelbach, a spokesman for AHIP, noted that insurers will be accepting children with preexisting conditions in other types of plans.

But, he said, extending such coverage in child-only policies “provides a very powerful incentive for a parent to wait until their child becomes very sick before purchasing coverage.”

Zirkelbach added that in 2014, when similar protections kick in for all individuals with preexisting conditions, virtually all Americans will be required to get health insurance.

The companies are correct, they cannot shoulder these kind of unfunded mandates, where a family will only pay for the sick child and avoid premiums for the larger, possibly healthy family members. There has to be a pool of healthy insured people to cover the costs of the few in dire need – or else it does not work. This is a reasonable approach to meeting the law sanely.

The results of Obamacare are starting to show up already in many ways. Health care is becoming too risky to invest a life-long career in and the numbers of doctors and nurses and health service experts is starting to shrink. The demand is starting to outstrip the capacity – especially for the Medicare/Medicaid patients whose costs are not covered by the government payments (Uncle Sam is quite cheap in this matter). Insurers are raising premiums to cover the unfunded mandates, making it even harder for companies and families to whether the Obama-extended recession. It was the worst idea at the worst of times.

The payments those of us who knew how to take care of ourselves were making to private companies, without Uncle Sam’s help, where worth the services we received. Not perfect, but it covered what we needed in most cases. In fact, the only time it did not work was when premiums spiked due to long term, pre-existing and expensive conditions. A cost the individual had to cover. This was painful, but acceptable for decades, until the government stepped in and made health care a social issue instead of a private sector service.

The only way to fix Obamacare’s destruction of the world’s best health care system is to repeal it ASAP. Otherwise the people who bring you the Post Office and DMV will be rationing your prescriptions and benefits to cover people whose life choices left them incapable of supporting themselves or their families. It is time to reinstate individual freedoms and responsibilities – and we can begin with taking back our health care choices from DC.

Update: Ed Morrissey also showcases this story at Hot Air, with additional links and commentary.

Tags: Children Policies, Obamacare, Pre-existing Conditions

I was not impressed or bothered by Bill Maher’s witchy extortion attempt on Christine O’Donnel, or by O’Donnell’s views regarding porn and faithfulness to your spouse or partner. I was not concerned over her views from 15-20 years ago because everyone should be wiser as they get older.

I was concerned about her personal finances and her inability to deal with challenging questions or claims. Through all of this I knew O’Donnell had a thin chance in DE, but a real one. The rising tide against DC and the Democrats could easily sweep her into office, especially against the bearded marxist Coons.

But not playing by the rules financially, by using campaign funds for personal benefit, smacks too close to using government funds for personal benefits (see student loan misuse by Dems), or flaunting the rules for personal benefit (see Rangel and Maxine Waters):

CREW’s complaint is based, in part, on the affidavit of former campaign aide David Keegan. Mr. Keegan explained that in 2009, when Ms. O’Donnell was out of money, she paid her landlord, Brent Vasher, two months rent out of her campaign funds. On FEC forms, Ms. O’Donnell called the expenditures “expense reimbursements.” Mr. Keegan also attested that Ms. O’Donnell routinely used campaign funds for meals and gas, and even a bowling outing. This is not surprising given that Ms. O’Donnell has not held a steady job or had a discernable source of income for many years.

If true these would be damning charges in this year of anti-government corruption. I have no clue if they are true, but the fact the charges are based on an affidavit from one of her campaign aids, gives the charge enough credence to make her a risky bet. CREW is, of course, a left wing, hypocritical, misleading outfit which ignores all Democrat misdeeds as innocent and plausible. Their exaggerated claims of thievery by O’Donnell are muted by their silence on the above mentioned Democrat misdeeds.

But CREW does not matter in this instance. Even a busted and useless watch is right twice a day – and this charge could stick. O’Donnell better have solid answers to these claims by her campaign aides, and I would not be surprised if there are other instances of behavoir that bothered aids who left her campaign expeditiously. If she cannot address these claims satisfactorily and up front, she cannot survive the general

Tags: Christine O'Donnell, CREW, DE Senate

President Obama’s stubbornness over extending the complete set of Bush tax cuts – verses extending all but those tied to those making over $250K (which is a good chunk of small and medium businesses, thus the engine of our economic growth) – is another example of our young President being in completely over his heads. As this excellent context-setting post notes, the squabbling is over a lousy 9 days of spending under Obama’s tsunami of deficit spending:

“Raising taxes on the top 2% of households, as Mr. Obama proposes, would bring in $34 billion next year: enough to cover nine days’ worth of the deficit,” notes The Economist. So that is what all the political fuss about extending the Bush tax cuts for another year is all about. Does this make any sense? After all, errors in estimating next year’s revenues are typically much larger than $34 billion.

Is this the call to arms? Stick it to the rich so we can get 9 more days of Obama-Pelosi-Reid deficits? Obama is crazy if he thinks Americans will want him hold our taxes hostage just so we can stick it to the rich. Most of could care less about the rich, we want our hard earned money back in our hands and the government shrunk back to a manageable size. I don’t know anyone who is hell bent on taxing the rich. While no one cares if the rich get taxed, they are not willing to live with this economic hell to ensure it happens!

Only a far left zealot would claim more of this economic hardship is worth taking some spare change from the grossly wealthy, while making it hard for those small businesses just above $250K per year to survive, let alone thrive. Obama’s tone deafness is now complete. Americans want to end mindless bureaucrat think in DC, and Obama comes out with the a bureaucratic whopper of illogic. He wants class warfare – we want good careers.

Not to worry, Mr President. You and Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid will go down in the history books – not as just as the first black president, first woman speaker and whatever Reid is famous for. You will go down in history as the biggest screw ups evah, as measured by the huge wave of bipartisan support you garnered in the electorate to fire you before you could do any more damage!

This is why you don’t want your political party to alienate the center of the country (click to enlarge):

I would say it makes complete sense that the small liberal/progressive minority – 18% – are the only ones happy with DC and the Dems right now. Everyone else is fed up with them.

And this is devastating poll on independents and which party they will throw their support behind this year:

Today, independents say they lean more toward the Republican Party than the Democratic Party, 50% to 25%, and that the Republican Party is closer to their views by 52% to 30%.

…

Independents who say they are certain to vote in the upcoming election break better than two-to-one for the Republicans, 42% to 20%.

The implications of these numbers is mind blowing. What is even better, is we now have the outlines of a new contract with America:

More generally, independents made clear in the survey what they want candidates to do: [1] Decrease the size and scope of government, [2] cut spending and taxes, [3] balance the budget, [4] reduce the federal debt, [5] reduce the power of special interests and unions, [6] repeal and replace the health-care legislation, and [7] decrease partisanship.

I especially like numbers 1 and 6. I think the rest will fall in place if we start there.

Tags: Congressional Approval, Gallup

One of the wonders of this election cycle is watching Democrats pretend they still have a prayer at the polls. Everyone knows they overstepped with the American people and are going to pay a heavy price for their arrogance. What is stunning is how the DC insiders are just now realizing why you don’t elect complete novices to executive positions. The results of handing incompetents that much power is truly staggering.

There is a great article out that highlights this realization from an insider’s view. I just now tripped over the 3rd and final installment, but that alone is telling. It is the confession of a Democrat political insider, deep within the Political Industrial Complex. The format of the interaction is a comment from the interviewer, and then the response from the insider. First, some hints at this insider’s background.

With all due respect, you sound like a disgruntled employee. No, not even close. I wasn’t on the books. I’m a contract player – I worked the ground game, I have been at the White House during this and other administrations, done meetings both formal and informal, and talked regularly to White Housers over the last two years who enjoy top level access. That is a big thing – access. I could get at it, but let me tell you, the feedback I got, and the things I saw with my own eyes and heard with my own ears, it was a terrible letdown. This is not 2008 anymore, not by a long shot. For most of the last year, you want to know what question keeps playing in my head?

The comment ‘not on the books. I’m a contract player‘ indicates this person is not White House staff, not a government employee, but a political consultant. The person has been in the business possibly as far back as the Clinton administration, though they could be a neutral advisor like a David Gergen who works for either party. The person has had access to White House staff since the beginning of Obama’s administration (talking to ‘White Housers‘ for two years). So we can assume this is not some low level consultant.

What this person finally admits openly is not a surprise to those who opposed candidate Obama on the grounds he had no experience worthy of electing him leader of the free world:

What question was that? WHAT THE HELL HAVE WE DONE? Now that may come off terribly disrespectful to the president, but so be it. What have we done? We were led to believe this man was one thing, but everything I have seen, heard, and understand, points to the indisputable fact he is not what we hoped for. Not what we were promised. Maybe he might have been. Maybe a full term or two in the Senate and he would have had the experience and maturity to handle the job of President of the United States. But right now – the man is simply not up to the task, and yet it is loyal Democrats who are paying the price for his incompetence and incoherence. The health care bill? Do you know I was told he has never read the bill? Not one part of it? NOT ONE. Sounds like something you would hear on one of the talk radio shows, right? And I wouldn’t normally consider such a possibility, but this came directly from one of those good Democrats who might now see their political careers ended because they supported that bill and now its being used against them like some political sledgehammer. How is that supposed to make someone who put their career on the line feel? Betrayed. A whole lot of us are feeling betrayed these days and it just pisses me off.

It was all a grand facade – and the Democrats fell for it. One characteristic that has really begun to attach itself to liberal-think is simple mindedness. A strange and immature world view that basically boils down to anything can be done by anyone with little or no experience. It probably comes from too much TV-Land, where all things are simple and can be resolved in 60 minutes. But reality is much more humbling. I have a fun test for people who think they are know-it-alls. I ask them to show me how great they are by ripping up a napkin or tissue. After being duly impressed with their prowess, I then ask them to make a napkin or tissue from raw materials. It is a simple product, it has taken many lifetimes to perfect

Obama is such a liberal-think person. He acted as if all he had to do was wave his presidential hand and people would fall in line and make him look good. It’s why he golfs so much, to stay away from the hard decisions. Decisions he has put in the hands of a young and ignorant staff. It is why an administration without a single business owner or worker, all tenured academics who pretend to understand how reality works, screwed up the stimulus opportunity. It is why this administration was led around by BP during the Gulf oil spill. It is why Obama sees no incoherence in claiming the necessary conditions for withdrawal from Afghanistan will be by a date certain next year.

These are all signs of someone thinking at a very low and incompetent level. If it was not our nation at risk, you get the feeling this is a comedy where some actor and president look-alike comes off the street and solves all the world’s problems with nothing more than sincere intentions! Oh wait –Kevin Kline already did that one.

The Democrats, in pure desperation for power, followed Obama to this devastating end because they did not vet the man, or contemplate all the possible things that could and would go wrong. It was the same way with the stimulus bill. Democrats had their rose colored glasses firmly in place, only thinking about the accolades that would rain down upon them once the mythical Keynesian forces of government largess swept across the land. It never dawned on them it would take 1-2 years to get the money flowing, and by that time they would be up for reelection and being graded on how well they dealt with the economy.

Same thing with health care and cash for clunkers and the mortgage bail out programs – no one ever really sat down and worked out what could happen. Dems even admitted they had no clue what would happen until their wild-guess legislation passed and was enacted! Now we know – health care premiums are sky rocketing and the government is threatening to bankrupt insurance plans that attempt to stay solvent. No one ever considered the fact that the health industry runs on miniscule margins, and any more unfunded mandates could tip the whole thing over.

Democrats got what they deserve in 2008. The liberal media got what they wanted. And now, after two years of seeing the results of their efforts, we as a nation will bury once and for all the idea socialistic, liberal or progressive ideas are anything more than naive and ignorant wishful thinking. As the insider clearly states from the party of the progressives:

Democrats need to rise up within the party and say enough is enough. We have allowed ourselves to be carried far too far to the left of the mainstream. You know what word I cannot stand? Progressive. Enough with this “progressive” crap. Shut up about it. We are Democrats. Anyone who wants to call themselves a Progressive I say show them the door – they are doing nothing but killing the Democratic Party.

Sadly, it may already be too late to save the party. The GOP and the Teat Party Movement have tapped into the silent majority who once allowed DC to decide what is best. The mood in the land now is to roll back the federal government as much as possible. The push for limited government, confined to clearly expressed constitutional limits, will remove the power of DC elites to grab people’s incomes and play God. And without taxpayer funds, liberal fantasies remain just that – fantasies.

Tags: 2010 Elections, Congress, Democrats, President Obama

Lots of back and forth over Bill Maher’s latest effort to be something, this time through blackmail and extortion aimed at Christine O’Donnell. It is a fairly gross and crass act, which will probably endear voters to O’Donnell and finish off Maher’s cancerous career.

But the response to the realization Christine O’Donnell had a date with a witch, and was not impressed, is not surprising. Those uncomfortable with her as a candidate find one more excuse to express their legitimate doubts, and those out RINO hunting find one more ally to target in their mindless game of conservative fratricide (too many links to select the worst offender). The response on the far right is the other telling moment here. This is why you don’t promote questionable candidates on broad coalitions – they end up destroying the camaraderie.

If your candidate tilts too far towards one faction and does not represent all factions evenly, you get a mess. As example I give Bob McDonnell, the VA Governor. He is just as conservative as Christine O’Donnell, comes down personally on the same social issues as she does, yet he garners trust that he will be fair to center left to far right. Christine O’Donnell had a chance to gain this stature by facing this latest test head on during the morning news shows. She instead cancelled out.

I could care less about Maher’s claims and what a young Christine was doing in 1999. The real story is how everyone responded to Maher’s gutter tactics.

Tags: Bill Maher, Christine O'Donnell, Witchcraft

What do the VA & NJ Governor races in 2009, the MA Senate special election in January 2010, the Alaska GOP senate primary race, the NY GOP governor primary and the DE GOP senate primary race all seem to have in common?

Answer: The trends of these races only became evident to the public very late in the calendar, and only to pollsters which ‘opened up’ their screening to detect the intensity behind these come-from-behind-winners. I remembered that when I was reading this article from Der Spiegel:

Even a few weeks ago, it was considered impossible that the Tea Party favorite Christine O’Donnell would win the primary in Delaware. She was long seen as being too far to the right to woo enough votes. On Tuesday, such predictions were consigned to the trash when O’Donnell beat a veteran congressman to secure the Republican nomination in the Delaware race for the US Senate.

As I have said before, the wave heading for November is massive. And nothing is predictable in this kind of climate since pollsters rely heavily on turnout reflecting their turnout models. But when you get conditions like this you can easily be off 5-10%, and that would be a difference between a very bad year for the Dems and a historic blow out. To adjust the turnout models towards reality requires pollsters to make such dramatic changes they just don’t feel professionally comfortable doing that – at least not until much closer to the actual vote.

Newer organizations, less rigid with decades of established process, tend to see the wave coming. I would rank Rassmussen and PPP in that category (PPP called the two upsets in DE and AK by adjusting their turnout models). So we should expect to see more and more Dems go by the wayside as we get closer and closer to November – and we have. Russ Feingold is about to be the next toss-up seat to go “leans GOP“. The RCP map has lost all but a few spots of blue, and the gray states are turning the light pink of leans GOP. And those elections that began leans GOP a few months ago are turning dark brown as the wave keeps rising and people begin engaging pollsters again.

The Democrats really did not comprehend the voter backlash they would engender by forcing unwanted socialist approaches down the throats of Americans. They really do think they are God’s gift to humankind, though all their grand schemes always end up in ruin.

Just one example is needed to underscore the depth of their incompetence:

The Los Angeles City Controller said on Thursday the city’s use of its share of the $800 billion federal stimulus fund has been disappointing.

The city received $111 million in stimulus under American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) approved by the Congress more than year ago.

“I’m disappointed that we’ve only created or retained 55 jobs after receiving $111 million,” says Wendy Greuel, the city’s controller, while releasing an audit report.

As the link at Drudge notes, that is $2 million per job, and I bet they aren’t even that good of jobs. How could anyone produce this result and not be marched out of town as a complete failure. When an investor takes $2 million dollars and turns it into $550,000 (assuming average pay is $100K per year) they are fired for incompetence. Is it any wonder America is firing the Political Industrial Complex – and will be for a few cycles to come?

Democrats worked hard for this result. They bribed hard, propagandized hard and deluded themselves to never before seen heights to reap their rewards. And in November, the stealthy, silent tsunami will arrive and bestow upon them the gratitude of the American people.

Tags: 2010 election, GOP, Senate Primary, Tea Party