Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two  different assumptions on turnout models. The tracking polls in the ‘traditional’ family use historic voting trends to weight things like […]

.. about early voting trends and exit polls can be found at the NY Times Caucus Blog.

Yesterday we saw a McCain campaign memo that claimed the race was tightening quickly and McCain-Palin have a good shot next week. Now an Obama campaign memo confirms (to some degree) the McCain memo: In a phone interview with FOX News, Barack Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand said: “John McCain is right. Things are […]

Early voting patterns are showing two things – lots of voters are coming out, and many more are ‘democrats’. Here is a list of stories that show that early voting trends are indicating record voter turnout – which cannot be solely due to Democrats in the end. But the message is clear – if you […]

Is the SS Obama starting to sink? Are independents and moderate left Democrats jumping ship? Who knows, but this is interesting: Since I started writing speeches more than ten years ago, I have always believed in the Democratic Party. Not anymore. Not after the election of 2008. This transformation has been swift and complete and […]

If Obama loses PA he is in deep trouble. The public polls show an Obama blow out, but behind the scenes rumors persist: Tonight we spoke with a friend from Hillary Clinton’s campaign who is now working for McCain/Palin — and is specifically working with Democrats for McCain in Pennsylvania. We worked with her in […]

OK, this has got to be the most bizarre news I have seen in my lifetime of watching politics: Six hours after the release of information by API on the planned broadcast by Fox News Network of the Michelle Obama tape, in accordance with an agreement that has been reached between API and Fox News Network, […]

I know I am an unknown and anonymous blogger whose mathematical skills can easily be questioned, but it is just strange to see how slow some light bulbs are turning on in the news media. As I noted last night, the poll confusion is not confusing at all.  There are two families of polls out […]

I am an ex-democrat conservative, which puts me in great company with the likes of Ronald Reagan,  and others. To have once been a die-hard Democrat is to understand the left and be able to emphasize (not necessarily agree) with their views. To be a conservative independent is to understand the left is not always […]