On a business trip today. Might get a chance to post something this afternoon. But in case anyone wants to debate in the comments, here ya go!

Fox News is out with some senate polls which should shift another state into the GOP column in the RCP average. First off, West-by-golly-Virginia:

Deep resistance to Obama’s agenda has put a West Virginia Senate seat once thought to be safe territory for Democrats in serious jeopardy.

A new Fox News battleground state poll on the race for the seat held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd for 51 years shows Republican businessman John Raese with a 5-point lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin among likely voters — 48 percent to 43 percent.

At RCP WV is a toss up because there are only two other polls in the mix. Rasmussen with a 48-46 lead for Raese and PPP with a 46-43 lead for Raese. Adding this 3rd poll could give RCP enough reason to move the state over to ‘leans GOP’ since it will make 3 polls showing on average a Raese lead of 47-44 lead. I have been waiting for another poll to move this state, we may have it.

Other poll news from Fox has Reid finally fading to Angle 49-46%. As I suspected, the leak of a meeting between Angle and the other Tea Party (Scott Ashjian) candidate pretty much drove the other candidate’s supporters to Angle, once they realized the guy was more bitter about losing than anything else. This could move NV out of the tossup category. It is a race to see whether NV or WA fall next, but I suspect they are both ready to go any week now.

Tags: 2010 Elections, NV, WV

Update: A new WaPo/ABC News poll shows the same trend Cost notes below – massive rejection of the Dems by Independents:

Meanwhile, independents continue to lean heavily toward the GOP in their voting intentions, a sharp change from both 2006 and 2008. Among independent voters most likely to cast ballots this year, 53 percent say they favor the Republican in their district, compared with 33 percent who favor the Democratic candidate.

No matter the turn out model (no one knows what it will be), the coming landslide is baked in with this much disparity between the parties with the independent center of the country.

There is also this gem, which confirms my one complaint regarding Jay Cost’s assessment:

But almost a quarter of Democrats say a GOP-led Congress would take the country in a new and better direction or say a return to Bush’s policies would be good.

I still doubt the Dems will stay united and go 95-5% for their candidate. I maintain that the GOP not only has a massive lead with Independents, but they also have ripped well into the Democrat base as well. If the center-left joins the independents and defect, then the outcome this November will be historic.– end update

My previous post on the shocking Gallup numbers is here.

Jay Cost has an interesting take on the difference between the Rasmussen ‘likely voter’ model – now standing at +3% for the GOP, but having been at 10+% for the GOP for a long time – and the debut of the Gallup ‘likely voter‘ model for the generic congressional vote – now standing at +13-18% depending on the turnout model. As usual, Cost is cautious and correct on the meaning of polls this cycle:

I’ll put it this way, you’d have to give me some killer odds to get me to bet on a GOP +18 result, or even a GOP +13 result, which is what their expanded likely voter model has (more on these dueling likely voter models in another installment).

But beyond that, this is what I’d suggest. Put out of your mind the topline numbers, and you see something similar in both Rasmussen and Gallup: Republicans are running away with the independent vote. The differences in their final results are due to how many undecideds are left, how well both sides are sorted, and how many Democrats and Republicans are in the sample. My feeling, however, is that the two sides are ultimately going to be very well sorted (95 percent or so of Republicans voting Republican; 95 percent of Democrats voting Democratic), and the Democrats and Republicans should once again reach rough parity, as has happened in each of the last four midterms. The big question for now is how the independents break, and in both of these polls they are breaking heavily toward the GOP.

This is of course one major part of the equation. Independents are breaking in ALL polls towards the GOP, and in huge numbers. Even that flaky Newsweek poll showing dems up +5% had independents going to the GOP by over 15%. That poll shows you exactly why turnout models are dangerously unpredictable in wave elections. The only way for Newsweek to get a +5% for the Dems on the generic poll is to dial in enormous energy on the Dems side, enough to swamp the clear lead the GOP has in the other 2/3rds of the electorate (indies and GOP). Cost is right, the GOP has the independents and by huge margins across the nation.

Gallup’s 13% lead for the GOP is assuming a hefty Democrat turn out, but is that likely? The Democrats in Congress and the White House have seriously let down their base on Health Care, Global Warming, the war in Afghanistan, etc. Moreover, far left Democrats are now being rejected by majorities of the country. That is a debilitating position to be in. It is not an energizing state of mind. There are no victory laps happening, just rejection.

Moreover, I am not buying the idea the Dems will break 95-5 for this liberal Congress. I think there are only two possible options, neither of which will save the Democrats. We already see left of center Congressional Democrats running against their own party, this Congress and their President. There are many more in the electorate, and their numbers are greater than 5%. Either center-left Dems go to the polls and vote out their party, or they stay home and cripple the Dem turnout numbers. Either way, that leaves the small 20% of the electorate who call themselves liberals/progressives to face a wave made up of the other 80% of the electorate. I just don’t see a unified Democrat response in the mix.

In the 18% GOP lead scenario the GOP comes out and swamps the independents and Dems, which is clear in the Gallup turnout mix provided with the new poll data (click to enlarge):

I’m not sure the GOP will swamp the independents that much under the 18% scenario. I am sure the GOP + Independents will swamp the Dems, so I would wager a top end mix is 36-32-29 (R-I-D). But now we talking about where inside that 13-18% range the election will fall. At those levels all outcomes are horrible (to one degree or another) for Dems.

Under the ‘registered voter‘ model you get a +3%, just like Rasmussen. This is where there is no enthusiasm gap – and yet the GOP has a healthy and historically rare lead. Unrealistically, this scenario shows the GOP turnout the lowest of all groups. This is not the best Dems will achieve, it is the best they wish they could achieve. This is a complete fiction.

The other two options show increasing levels of GOP and Independent voters – they demonstrate two versions of the enthusiasm gap’s potential power. I agree with Cost this is probably the ceiling – but it is not that high a ceiling given the mood of the electorate.

While Democrats are either feeling rejected (far-left) or with buyers remorse (center-left), the rest of the electorate is white hot mad. After two years of raging at town halls, gathering at protests and registering their opposition to the liberal carnage going on I seriously doubt the wave of anger will simple dissipate before November’s elections. This is what people have been waiting for. This is the alternative to pitchforks and revolution – executing the power of the ballot box. There is no equivalent rallying energy on the left (as we saw in the battle of the DC Mall demonstrations). There is a 2-1 enthusiasm gap in those ready to march into the voting booth and throw the Democrats out. We saw it in the primary voting numbers where the GOP side crushed the Democrat side. We see it in poll after poll.

Unlike Cost I can envision a 13% route for the GOP. When people are protecting their way of life, their family, their community they become incredibly focused and energized. The liberals have two years of failures and backroom politics at their back. I just don’t see any indication that the tsunami has lost any discernible amount of its energy. Even a fractional reduction (to take a breather) is not going to help the Dems, since they created an enormous backlash in two short years run amok.

The laws of physics apply here. All that energy that was in the Rasmussen polls and is now in the Gallup poll and is even hidden in the Newsweek poll did not go anywhere. Where could it have gone? Would dirty tricks fool an electorate one more time, or are the voters willing to try anything to get the jobs back and their futures back? I suspect Rasmussen is having trouble tapping the core of the wave, they are so fed up they are tuned out until November. Pollsters are just barely able to detect a portion of this movement, because they are seen as part of the Political Industrial Complex. And of course, their turnout models must look like some science fiction right now, because they have never seen the like before. Which is exactly what we have been seeing all year.

Tags: 2010 Elections, Gallup Poll, Rasmussen Poll

I missed the launch of the Gallup likely voter generic ballot numbers earlier today (playing Mr. Mom to the twins), but it was worth the wait (click to enlarge).

I still cannot fathom the impact of these numbers on House, Senate and Governor races, but I guarantee you no pollster’s current turnout models have been run with this kind of lopsided enthusiasm gap. It is best seen in the change from ‘likely voters‘ and high turnout (which means the Dems can kick their base into a frenzy somehow in the face of all this malaise). In this best case scenario, the GOP is ahead by 13% points! That right there spells w-i-p-e-o-u-t-!

But looks what happens if the voter mood is still more like the governor races in VA & NJ in 2009 and the MA special senate election in January 2010. If angry GOP and Independent voters flex their joint muscle against Obama, Reid and Pelosi, then the generic advantage jumps to 18%! That is why so many long term incumbent dems are in trouble in both houses of Congress. The Tsunami wave won’t reach Pelosi or Maxine Waters, but it will wipe out people in D+2 districts, I have no doubt. This is why even O’Donnell can win in DE. Low turnout on the Dem side will be a total d-i-s-a-s-t-e-r.

So can the Dems do a better job of rallying American voters than they did in the battle of the DC Mall demonstrations? I seriously doubt it. Either way, the dems are just trying to minimize the blow by rallying their base. They cannot save their House majority right now. It’s either down by 13% or 18% – they have no firewalls that can stop those numbers.

Update: On this page at Gallup you get the staggering numbers on the independents. In the best case scenario of likely voters & high turnout, independents side with the GOP 56-31, or 25% 15%! In the worst case scenario independents go with the GOP 59-30, or by 19%! This is what happens when you over reach and push beyond the center’s comfort zone. It will be a harsh lesson to the Dems come November and a very stark warning to the GOP as they take control of Congress in 2011.

Madam Speaker, start emptying that office We The People loaned you. Majority Leader Reid, you might want to begin packing too. President Obama – you will be a one term President.

Tags: 2010 Elections, Gallup Generic

Update: Jay Cost has some alarming numbers of his own today, showing how independents now favor the GOP 42-30%. That kind of one sided support, combined with an enthusiasm edge with the anti-democrat (anti-big-government) side of the equation is a good hint for what Gallup could show today. – end update

I am waiting to see if Gallup is going to produce their generic congressional poll numbers today using ‘likely voters‘. As Jay Cost noted last week, these numbers apparently are going to shake the political establishment to its core. It took me a while to find the exact link on Gallup’s site, but a 2010 blog post had helluva tease in it:

Our latest measure for the week of Sept. 20-26 shows Republicans with a 20-percentage-point lead over Democrats in terms of the percentage of voters who are “very” enthusiastic about voting. Additionally, preliminary modeling of the likely electorate using Gallup’s traditional likely voter questions (more on this next week) suggests that if current patterns persist, Republicans could have a double-digit lead in the national House vote on Election Day, which would translate into Republicans gaining well above the number of seats necessary to control the House.

That kind of enthusiasm gap would be amazing. And it seems to fit with what we saw with the “One Nation” rally on The Mall in DC this weekend. This leftist attempt to show solidarity fell far short of the grass roots gathering coordinated by Glenn Beck a month earlier. The “One Nation” crowd was tiny in comparison to the Tea Party, libertarian, Constitution cheering Beck crowds – and 100 times bigger polluters. Seems green doesn’t count when visiting our nation’s capitol. Byron York noticed even that paltry gathering was primarily paid and orchestrated by unions – unlike the Beck gathering which was made possible by the 100’s of thousands who brought their families to DC to quietly protest a government run amok. Without union money and buses no one would have shown up.

All the signs are there for a historic wipe out come November, all the while democrat congressional leaders continue to stupidly claim they will still be the majority in November (the new congress is not seated until January, 2011). The far left is going to finally realize it does not represent America, but it is in fact a delusional fringe group of tired, worn out slogans from an era long gone.

Unions had their time, about 100 years ago. They were a needed counter weight to industry leaders who ran sweat shops and exploited children for profit. The days of the unions were replaced with the age of the small business entrepreneur. Now, using computer systems and commercial software (even cloud computing), companies can be set up by very small groups of like minded people who can make a good living. The information age has turned most workers into business people or consultants – not just workers. All those college degrees are paying off. The dems have yet to get out of the 1950’s and understand the sea change that has occurred.

Same thing with race relations. The only ones obsessed about race (and gender, and sexual preference) are the bigots on the left. Racism and sexism are not allowed and are universally shunned. Outside the quirky fringes on the far right (who are reacting to the far left) and far left, 90% of America lives their lives as Martin Luther King dreamed.

Finally, we get our news and views from the exchange of idea on the internet – especially from the electronic pamphleteers who have broken the monopoly on information once jealously held by the Political Industrial Complex. The people are not tied to DC leaders for information, ideas and making plans. The largest political group – of which I am a proud member – are independents. We can rationally blend the good concepts from left and right into a coherent set of goals (e.g., ecologically safe energy production). Liberals run around claiming CO2 is a poison and mankind needs to revert to preindustrial life styles. No there’s a plan!

The era of big government will be over, soon enough. The vast majority of Americans have grown beyond the need of the nanny state, or union bullies, or big corp rigidness. We stand on our own two feet, and we are preparing to dismantle as much of the federal bureaucracy as is safely possible (which will require many rounds of trimming and assessing to get it right). We will enjoy trimming back Big Government and returning our hard earn money to ourselves. This does not frighten us, since we handle just about all other aspects of society better than government could ever hope to do.

At least I believe that is the future we will glimpse today, when Gallup reports its first round of generic poll numbers using ‘likely voters‘.

Update: Reader Lurker9876 strikes again with this excellent shot from Doug Ross comparing the crowds between the leftist “One Nation” rally yesterday and the Beck rally last month – not even close.

I was worried that the “One Nation” rally picture may have been taken early in the morning, before the rally took off. But you have to be a DC area native (like me) to notice where the Sun’s shadows are. Both pictures are taken due West. If this was a morning shot then there would be no shadow on the Lincoln Memorial front, as there is in the One Nation shot.. Also note the tree shadows are due North – indicating a mid-day shot. The Beck Rally has no shadows except up in the far left corner. But it looks actually to be an early picture since the Lincoln looks to have no shadows across it.

Anyway, any liberal fool who thinks those crowds are the same size, or that the leftist crowd was bigger, as some serious issues with comparative size analysis – end update

In a season of dumb moves, the Democrats seem unwilling to stop digging their hole with the silent majority of middle and upper class America. There is no clearer choice in this election cycle than between those who were represented by the Glenn Beck Palin rally (which talked about the Constitution and living a respectful life) and the Marxists and socialist who marched on DC this weekend to show Democrat solidarity. These leftists want to change America into something more like the USSR or Venezuela. Pictures are worth a thousand words – so let’s begin with a sample from Doug Ross (click to enlarge):

There are many more if you follow the link. Red State has an incredible round up of links with images, videos, organization web sites, etc. (H/T Reader Lurker9876). Please research what these leftist want to do if allowed to stay in power – the futures of your children are literally at stake this November.

The left came out of the shadows when President Obama was elected. It is no wonder the Democrats are getting hammered for representing people who want to transform America into Stalin’s dream. If this election (and the one in 2012) IS about the direction of America, then so be it. Let’s make it clear to everyone which way this democracy is heading.

Pay attention liberals, progressive, socialists and Marxists: this is the land of the free and the brave. This is America. Move to Venezuela if you want to live under the jack boot of government control.

And as for the mainstream media – the fact you ‘missed’ reporting this aspect of the march means you are not worthy of American support. Any organization that misrepresented this outpouring of anti-American sentiment is should be shunned into oblivion. Let the free market reign!

Tags: 2010 election, DC March, Marxists, One Nation, Socialists, Trash

There is not enough lipstick in the world to cover up this pig:

The Principal Financial Group announced on Thursday that it planned to stop selling health insurance, another sign of upheaval emerging among insurers as the new federal health law starts to take effect.

The company, based in Iowa, provides coverage to about 840,000 people who receive their insurance through an employer.

The NY Times tries to make this out to ”posturing”, but not only did 840,000 lose their insurance plans, untold thousands lost their jobs at Principle and it’s associate companies. The Obama duoble-whammy: more uninsured, more unemployed. This is what you get with liberal social experimentation.

Tags: Obamacare, Principle Financial Group

While I tend to watch the RCP senate map to see where the November elections are heading, I think the Pollster.com senate picture is actually more accurate. The snapshot below (click to enlarge) is from today, and it represents the current state of play in the Senate much better in my opinion.

Pollster.com shows the Dems and GOP both at 47 (RCP has it 48-46, Dems) because it keeps the two independents out of the Dem column (does anyone think Independent Joe Leiberman would not caucus with the GOP to retain some power?). Pollster.com has CO in the GOP column (which is where it will be soon enough in RCP). The tossups are WA, WV, IL and NV. The Dems need to win 1 of these 4 to retain control (with VP Biden breaking the tie) and the GOP needs all 4.

Seems tough, but the fact is the toss ups all look really good for the GOP. In NV Reid has yet to get above 45%, which is the death point for ALL incumbents. Add to that his son is at the top of the ticket running for governor and losing badly. It is not hard to see reverse coat tails, where his son drags down dusty Harry to defeat. Once you vote the son out, might as well send dad packing too!

WV is trending strongly GOP because the vote there is not for favored son Governor Manchin, it is against the liberals in DC. IL is well within reach as is WA. So while this map looks at a glance to be tougher, the reality is it is very close to the most likely outcome. CA and CT and NY-S all are allocated to the Dems (no sure thing, but the polls so far show enough lead this is the likely outcome). Today this picture of the senate looks to a 51-47-2 spread (R-D-I), which is where I think the most likely outcome is 4 weeks out. But if there is a big, unseen wave out there, this picture would be the low end of some truly surprising scenarios.

Tags: 2010 Elections, Senate

OK, this election year could be more than a once-in-a-lifetime kind of year. It could be a once-in-forever, if what Jay Cost is reporting about Gallup’s ‘likely voter‘ version of its congressional generic question is accurate:

Our latest measure for the week of Sept. 20-26 shows Republicans with a 20-percentage-point lead over Democrats in terms of the percentage of voters who are “very” enthusiastic about voting. Additionally, preliminary modeling of the likely electorate using Gallup’s traditional likely voter questions (more on this next week) suggests that if current patterns persist, Republicans could have a double-digit lead in the national House vote on Election Day, which would translate into Republicans gaining well above the number of seats necessary to control the House.

Woah! A 10+% 20% lead for the GOP over the Dems would be incredible. It would not be a 50 or 80 seat blow out. It would be closer to a 100 seat blow out. No wonder Barney Frank is sweating bullets right now. Here is Cost’s take on these kinds of numbers:

It’s hard to estimate exactly how many Republican seats a +10 result would produce – predictive models can be particularly dodgy when estimating unprecedented results – but if the Republicans win 55 percent of the two-party House vote, I think they’d beat their haul from 1946, when the party won a total of 245 seats.

It just boggles the mind. The political earth quake would be (or will be!) amazing to watch. And the liberal Democrats would be radioactive poison for decades to come. As the saying goes, watch what you ask for, you just might get it!

Tags: Gallup, Generic Ballot, House

There was probably a good reason some of the Tea Party groups in DE stayed away from Christine O’Donnell and refused to support her. All recent evidence shows O”Donnell has incredible trouble with the truth, and that she bends the rules and misrepresents constantly. She is beyond a serial liar, she just can’t stop herself it seems.

I will begin with the harmless lies – the exaggeration of personal accomplishments. But I will end this with a serious admission to falsifying campaign finance records and filing false reports. These are felonies, and should not be dismissed as harmless.

First, the strange case of O’Donnell’s less than stellar path through higher education. Seems her bio has had references (or mis-references) to her educational background. Patterico has a good rundown of the mess, where O’Donnell denied placing misleading information on websites like LinkedIn, but it is clear the records of one of these sites indicates O’Donnell’s denials are likely to be false. Patterico somes it up nicely for me:

Why does any of this matter? Well, if she flat-out lied when asked if she created these profiles, you have to decide for yourself whether that makes a difference to you.

…

As for me, I hate weasels. If O’Donnell turns out to be a weasel on this — and it’s sure looking that way — I’m done. I’m not sacrificing my credibility to support a serial liar. I wouldn’t support Coons either, of course. I would just declare a pox on all their houses.

There is a huge difference between supporting someone who you disagree with policy-wise on occasion (like a Castle, McCain, Snowe, Lieberman, etc) and supporting a liar – and possible felon. In the consensus nature of democratic government it is not treason to the country or the party to support legislation that can draw Democrats and Republicans – as many purist love to cry out. But it treasonous to the honor and integrity of the American people to elevate a failed human being to high office. I just cannot agree with comments like this:

To some, it will not matter. One of my commenters said today that he would support her as long as she is not an axe murderer.

That is pure desperation. What about a child molester? Rapist? Armed robber? Drunk driver who killed? Illegal alien? This is what we call the slippery slope. Steve Taylor at Outside The Beltway has even more embellishments and lies. O’Donnell lies so much she cannot seems to control herself. She seems to be suffering from terminal insecurity, so she continuously exaggerates her accomplishments and tries to hide her mistakes. All this would just make her pathetic in most people’s books. But …

I was done with Christine O’Donnell when it became evident she lied about using campaign money for personal use. A lie her lawyer has apparently quietly admitted – in a round about way:

Ms. Mitchell also has stated that Ms. O’Donnell will go back and “correct” FEC forms that might have “mistakenly” listed expenses incorrectly. Further, Ms. Mitchell has suggested Ms. O’Donnell will retroactively take a salary from the campaign, which would make the rent payments permissible. If this sounds legally dubious, that’s because it is.

While candidates legally can collect a salary from their campaign, they can’t do so retroactively. Just like a bank robber can’t go back in time and claim the stolen money was actually a “security consulting fee,” Ms. O’Donnell can’t turn back the clock either.

Ms. O’Donnell would prefer Delawareans focus not on her actions, but on CREW’s motives. First, CREW is a nonpartisan organization with a long record of taking on unethical politicians regardless of party affiliation. But more important, Christine O’Donnell is running to serve the people of Delaware as their elected representative in the United States Senate — a position that demands integrity and honesty.

The attempt to go back and change the record is a clear admission she lied on her campaign finance reports. As the CREW piece notes, this is a federal crime. This is even more of a crime than diverting student scholarship funds for the needy to congressional families, friends and supporters. Yes, it is a CREW piece and I am not a big fan of CREW – but even a stopped watch is right twice a day.

I cannot and will not back someone who lies and cheats. And I will, in fact, oppose that person being elected to high office. This country deserves better. Those who gave their lives to protect this country and its people deserve better. The GOP and Tea Party deserve better. I will accept nothing less. Average citizens who have some quirks are just fine with me. Liars, cheats and felons – that is where my line stands.

Tags: Christine O'Donnell