Nov 02 2010

Coons In Trouble? O’Donnell Turnout Success?

We all knew that it would have to be an ungodly huge wave to elevate Christine O’Donnell into the US Senate, but it seems the Coons campaign has seen the wave, and they are worried!

In a noon email alert to supporters, Coons campaign manager Christy Gleason said close monitoring of voter turnout in the state’s 41 representative districts showed “lower turnout in New Castle and Kent counties than we’re comfortable with.”

Was it lower turnout in their areas, or massive turnout in O’Donnell’s? The parties and campaigns have all the data to measure the wave as it comes ashore – so this is a clear sign the Democrats are not happy with what they see!

8 responses so far

Nov 02 2010

California Shocker – Were The Polls Wrong?

Forget all those polls you have seen the past two weeks with Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer winning their contests today. There have been long term concerns with the CA polls, which have assumed a massive Democrat edge in turn out near or above 2008 levels, thus propping up the two Democrat candidates in the final results. This of course has always seemed at odds with the depth of CA congressional districts in trouble and potentially going GOP.

The Field Poll has now cemented that concern by showing a huge GOP turnout edge:

Mark DiCamillo, Field Poll director, said his polling projects turnout of 68 percent for Republicans, 55 percent for Democrats, and 38 percent for independent or minor-party voters.

The bottom line for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman is that Democrats’ 13-point lead in voter registration will shrink to a 5 percent advantage in votes cast because of the disparity in turnout, the poll found.

DiCamillo said that the Tea Party movement is expected to bolster Republican turnout this year, with roughly 40 percent of likely California voters indicating at least some identification with the populist protest movement.

The full results are here. This means the GOP-Independent portion of the electorate is going to rival the Democrats at the polls (click to enlarge).

Again we clearly see an intensity gap for the GOP voters, running a good 7% above their registration level. This is not how the CA electorate voted in 2008. The exit polls in 2008 showed the Dems with a 13% lead (42-28), not a 5% one.

As I have done with the early voting data, I can run two scenarios through the turnout model and determine who wins the votes. If we assume both parties hold 95% of their base and the GOP takes independents by 20% (a fairly universal national benchmark this year) then we end up with a near tie as the Dems win by 1.7% (50.8 D – 49.2 R). This defies the poll results we have been seeing in CA, especially in the governor’s race.

If assume the GOP actually will take 15% of the Democrat base along with that 20% lead with the independents, then the GOP wins the vote by a whopping 7.2% (46.4 D – 53.6 R). This second model combines the GOP enthusiasm gap, the independent voter gap, and the yet to be confirmed democrat defection rate. I wager that the actual outcome in CA will be between these two markers, which means the GOP is likely to win both statewide races. As they say, turn out is everything.

8 responses so far

Nov 02 2010

A Crush Of Anger Hits The Election Booths

They call it the ‘enthusiasm’ gap, but there is no enthusiasm behind the wave hitting the election booths across the nation today. It is fear of more liberal havoc, and it has the GOP-Independent alliance coming out in enormous numbers compared to a Democrat base disillusioned and fractured. Gallup’s last broadside of data is just mind boggling:

The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.

H/T Ed Morrissey at Hot Air. This is a big wave coming. When you combine this GOP-Independent leaner ‘enthusiasm’ gap to the generic ballot gap you begin to get a glimpse of this towering event that is now coming ashore.

I repeat, there are three factors behind this voter backlash. It is a combination of (a) the enthusiasm gap, (b) the shift of independents to the GOP by 20-30% and (c) the yet to be reported defection of Democrats. All polls so far assume Dems will hold 95% of their base. This is just not going to happen under these conditions. This is why I remain bullish on this election and predict a GOP gain of at least 75 house and 10 senate seats. There is no ray of hope in this data for the Dems. None.

5 responses so far

Nov 02 2010

Another Myth Busted: $$ Can’t Save A Liberal Agenda

One thing we can take away from this election is you cannot spend tons of money putting lipstick on a pig and fool the American voters:

Despite a deluge of campaign spending over the last few months by Republican-leaning outside groups, Democratic candidates and their allies have outspent Republicans over all on television advertising in House races, according to data provided by Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising. In Senate races, however, Republicans outspent Democrats.

We were told the Democrats were ready and would have the money to offset their failures this year. That myth is now busted, as all that money did not save the Democrat majority in the House.

2 responses so far

Nov 02 2010

Election Day Observations

I would like to get everyone’s observation about election day in one thread (I saw some of you already commented). Feel free to share the experience on this historic day!

6 responses so far

Nov 02 2010

The Perfect Storm For Change

Published by under All General Discussions

This election is the nexus of a lot of factors and forces that have combined in harmonic synchronization to create a major political shift. Not in terms of party preference (since both parties enjoy low support and the largest growing affiliation is ‘independent’), but in terms of the relationship between the people and the government. After a century of government growth and increased intervention, the people have had it with the clumsy, corrupt and confining big-government solutions. Heck, you can’t even eat what you want anymore without the nagging-state come knocking. There is a lot to learn from this historic moment, a lot we must learn if we are to turn things around.

The days when unions were needed to offset corporate greed and slave-like work conditions is long gone (except apparently in the government bureaucracy where the largest remaining pools of unions exist). The need to fight for the equal rights of women and minorities is over. If you can prove a violation in court you can get justice. We have elected an African American President and a woman most likely will lead the pack of contenders in 2012. Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin have broken through a ton of glass ceilings, as have Colin Powell, Condi Rice and numerous others across this nation. Martin Luther King would be proud of what we did with his vision.

We have basically outgrown the nanny state. The information age brought on by the internet broke the lock on the last key the elites could use to hold onto power – knowledge. With a monopoly on financial data the wealthy knew how to invest and remain rich while keeping the rest poor. Now anyone with a computer and time on their hands as an infinite amount of corporate data at their fingertips to invest and become wealthy. With scientific knowledge held to a few it was hard for average people to create innovation and build a successful enterprise. Apple, Microsoft, Google and others paved the way for all sorts of individual success stories. Even the old style news media is falling to the internet and bloggers, many of whom are making a good living in helping people navigate the mountains of information and sources (sadly, yours truly has yet to break the financial code on this matter!). Society is shifting, and the individual is being empowered in so many ways and dimensions most people don’t even grasp what is happening. We are too busy trying to keep up!

A company can be created and operated using a handful of computers, software tools and internet resources that perform accounting, inventory management, taxes, time cards, etc. The virtual business is arriving and will again remake America’s economic landscape and empower individuals and small groups to blaze the path to the future (this one area we have figured out in spades). The standard of living in this country is phenomenal, relative to even half a century ago. We poor humans just don’t have the perspective memory to sometimes realize how far we have come, how much we have matured, how much wiser we are. We don’t always see it, but things are changing dramatically. Ever think what life would be like without the internet, cell phones and a GPS systems? They did not widely exist 20 years ago.

So what went so wrong that we find ourselves angry and ready to dump congress critters right and left? Well, Congress starting messing around and trying to play God – and screwed it up. Most people know the financial collapse began with the mortgage disaster, a risky scheme put in place by liberal democrats who wanted to give responsibility to people not ready for it. A home is a wonderful and important asset, but you have to be ready to take it on. Just like you have to be ready to be responsible enough to drive a car safely. Sadly, in both cases Darwin’s laws work and people who are not ready fail – spectacularly and brutally at times.

What the democrats did by expanding access to mortgages to anyone able to fog a mirror was akin to dropping the age to drive to 10 years old – claiming it is important people get an early start at this empowering responsibility. The resulting implosion, havoc and destruction was not a surprise to many who tried to ring the alarm bells but who were ignored. This ridiculous attempt at being Robin Hood wiped out the careers of millions and the savings of tens of millions. When the bottom fell out of the housing everyone who owned a home suffered massive losses – all because of reckless decisions in DC. That scheme did not expand home ownership – it destroyed it for millions.

Since then we have seen example after example of dumb, big government solutions thrown out by arrogant leaders in DC. In the last two years they have put us into debt by $5 trillion dollars. That is $3,333 dollars stolen from every man, woman and child in this country and wasted. Here is what only 1 trillion dollars looks like (click to enlarge):

After blowing all this money on failed stimulus spending, failed bailouts of Wall Street and all sorts of other failed liberal policies the economy is shell shocked from the mortgage mess, the massive new debt and the pending mountain of new regulations (e.g., health care). The answer from the left to all this – more taxes. More stealing our hard earned (and dwindling) money. More screw ups and waste while they live high on the hog.

The disenchantment with big government began decades ago with Ronald Reagan, but it has never been clear what parts of government we can live without. Government can help sometimes, but these rare instances are never as broad nor as good as simply growing the economy and making sure there are plenty of good jobs available for those willing to work hard and earn the fruits of life. We have hesitated at times about going towards smaller government. But each time (Carter, Clinton and Obama) we have relearned why we cannot leave our individual fates in the hands of bureaucrats and politicians in DC.

This year America has finally decided to go all in and start cutting back the massive, corrupt and useless big government. The liberal democrats had large enough majorities to trot out their brilliant ideas, and America has passed judgment on them. We have decided they are not going to ever work. The left had their chance, and they blew it. The GOP is going to be given a chance now to work from the center outward and determine where to cut government back down to size – safely and sanely, without hurting those now trapped in the tentacles of the behemoth.

The era of big government is over. The era of telling people what to do and how to live is over. The era of diversity and respect for each other must replace the nanny state. We cannot keep attacking each other and letting the DC elites use that anger to rationalize their hold on power. Right now large majorities agree on a course change (though not all the details). We cannot come out of this opportunity screaming names at each other. Anyone crying RINO and DINO or moaning about having to compromise can sit this round out. Because one thing is crystal clear – we can’t survive much longer in this mode. It is time to return to the shining city on the hill. It is time to tear down the reckless government that brought us to this precipice, and take matters into our own capable hands.

2 responses so far

Nov 01 2010

The Tsunami Indicators For Election Night

There are tons of individual races which can be indicators of how the election will play out – but there is one state (mine of course) which will measure the level of the wave right after the polls close at 7 PM Eastern. These results may be earlier than most other states and will be a quick gauge for the rest of the evening. This is because the VA Democrat Congressman will fall based on the height of the GOP wave. Right now VA has a mix of 6 Democrats and 5 Republican Congress Critters:

    R-VA1: Rep. Wittman
    D-VA2: Rep. Nye
    D-VA3: Rep. Scott
    R-VA4: Rep. Forbes
    D-VA5: Rep. Perriello
    R-VA6: Rep. Goodlatte
    R-VA7: Rep. Cantor
    D-VA8: Rep. Moran
    D-VA9: Rep. Boucher
    R-VA10: Rep. Wolf
    D-VA11: Rep. Connolly

No GOP candidates are at risk this cycle.

In a normal mid-term realignment I could see the GOP leaning districts (PIV of R+5) going back to the GOP. So if VA2 and VA5 go back to the GOP, and they are the only ones to go GOP, then the Dems have a chance to keep the House. This is just returning to the typical VA balance.

If the normally safe Rep Boucher in VA9 (R+11) loses, this would indicate a range where the GOP takes 45-55 seats. At this point control of the Senate is in play, but either side could win.

If we also see VA11 (D+2) go to the GOP, then we are firmly in the 60-70 seat pick up range. I believe that when you get to this point the Senate tips to the GOP simply because the sum of the house races have to impact the state-wide races.

If we see VA8 go to the GOP, we are in uncharted territory and the Dems are looking at a devastating Tuesday – where long shot senate races (DE & CT for example) go into the GOP column and we discuss this election for years to come.

I think we will see 4 of the VA dems lose (VA2, VA5, VA9 & VA11) tomorrow – this is one big wave. If Jim Moran also loses in VA8, then you can bet there will be a lot of surprise losses all night long. It would also leave only one Democrat left standing in the state of VA house caucus. And a message will have been sent, loud and clear.

11 responses so far

Nov 01 2010

Why This Election Matters, And Why The Dems Are Being Sent Packing

I was sent two charts that really explain why this election is important and why the Democrats are being fired by the American people. The first chart shows who it was who was ‘stimulated’ by all the massive deficits racked up by the Democrats in 2 short years (ama$$ing $% trillion dollars!) (click to enlarge):

The source and back story can be found here.

All that reckless spending and the majority of Americans (those not working for the government) paid the price with their jobs, lives and families. It is this elitist crap – taking our hard earned money and feathering their lazy-arse beds – that created the Tea Party and the backlash now cocked and ready to hammer DC. The only growth in jobs is in federal jobs – again this is done by taking our money away from us.

The second chart shows that these jobs are not just temporary census jobs paying minimum wage (click to enlarge:

Back story here.

It is criminal to take money from hard working Americans and stuff it in the pockets of bureaucrats who claim the money is going to the needy. Now we know why $5 trillion dollars later we still have a rotten economy and no hope in site. But change is coming!

This is why America is rising up in anger. This is why this is a libertarian revolt. This is why America no longer trusts or wants big government.

9 responses so far

Nov 01 2010

Christine O’Donnell’s Censored Ad

Christine O’Donnell produced this 30 minute advertisement as her closing argument to Delaware voters. A regional cable operator ‘forgottwice to air it (check in with Ed Morrissey for all the slimy details). This is not the American way. No one should be allowed to get between the voters and their candidates. So let everyone know to check out O’Donnell’s ad, which can be embedded from here.

We the People of the First State from Friends of Christine O'Donnell on Vimeo.

As a small business owner trying to hang on through this mess, I relate to this ad. This is why there will be a tsunami tomorrow – because the Democrats are crushing small businesses.

9 responses so far

Nov 01 2010

October Surprise – A Clueless White House

I am native of the DC beltway, growing up amongst the movers and shakers who flit through our area. Our family ended up here in part because my grandfather did a stint as a US Congressman [D]. It is why I know a lot about the pulse of this town. As a federal contractor I also know a lot about how the bureaucracy works (or doesn’t work). It is an interesting, if not painful suite of experience and insight.

So when I saw this all I could do is roll my eyes at how it emphasizes the mountain of amateurish ignorance in running this White House:

President Barack Obama has said the nation cannot afford tax breaks for the wealthy because they will boost the cost to nearly $4 trillion, but Biden suggested a willingness to extend the tax cuts to households making more than $250,000.

From what I understand the deal was to make the middle income tax cuts permanent, and only extend the upper income cuts for a year or two. Of course only a liberal claims not stealing the hard earned money of citizens is ‘spending’ – but that is not the point.

The timing of this trial balloon is truly amateur hour. All this does is deflate Obama’s base in coming out to vote tomorrow (there goes another compromise to the evil GOP!), and it will do nothing to attract a single independent this close to the election. This is an act of desperation, and it shows how far back on its heels this administration is. This kind of ‘we hear you’ concession should have been deployed in September, not the weekend before the election.

The White House has no understanding of what it is dealing with. And that is why we will be having this historic midterm tomorrow.

In related news we start to see why tomorrow is setting up to be a historic sweep of both chambers of Congress, numerous governor seat and untold state seats and legislatures. When you are leading by 30% with independents, it is impossible not to be eating into the other party’s base as well. And in places like PA, that means a Democrat killing field has been established:

Those Democrats unhappy with Obama are leaning strongly Republican, planning to vote for Toomey by a 68-23 margin and for Corbett by a 69-25 spread.

What that leads to overall is 15-19% of Democrats voting Republican in these two races.

If the nation is seeing (a) GOP enthusiasm up and its base staying home by 95-5%, (b) independents rejecting the Dems by creating a 30% lead for the GOP and (c) a defection level of 15-19% in the Dem base, this election will be a real shock and awe wave.

5 responses so far

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