Last week I predicted around a 75 house seat pick up for the GOP, along with a 9-11 senate seat win (you can’t win 75 seats in the house and not tip the Senate). I may have underestimated what is coming on November 2nd.

Gallup is out with it’s generic voter results for the final week leading into the elections, and it is historic (click to enlarge):

The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.

…

Taking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.

It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.

We are in uncharted territory. That is the reality of this election cycle.

The Democrats had no clue what would happen if they arrogantly ignored the wishes of the center of the electorate. Focused on their arch enemies on the far right, the liberal Democrat leadership in DC just assumed they would be determined to be the better of two evils. They were seriously wrong. So wrong they have created a backlash of biblical proportions – and destroyed any future consideration of liberal or far left policy proposals.

Nate Silver has an interesting scenario, where he describes the Wednesday after the election in what may be a truly prescient vision:

Not only did Republicans take over the House, but they also did so going away — winning a net of 78 seats from Democrats. Seven seats in New York State changed hands; so did six in Pennsylvania, five in Ohio and four in North Carolina. Party luminaries like Jim Obertsar and Raul Grijalva were defeated. Barney Frank and Dennis Kucinich survived, but they did so by just 2 points apiece, and their elections weren’t called until 1 a.m. Democrats picked up just one Republican-held seat — the open seat in Delaware — but Joseph Cao somehow survived in his very Democratic-leaning district in New Orleans. Virtually every race deemed to be a tossup broke to the Republican.

The news isn’t much better in the Senate. The Democratic candidates in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Illinois all lost, flipping those seats to red from blue. So did Harry Reid in Nevada and Joe Manchin in West Virginia; both of them lost by 7 points, in fact. Washington State isn’t finished counting its ballots, but Dino Rossi has about a 30,000-vote lead over Patty Murray, and looks likely to prevail. California isn’t done counting either, and the race between Barbara Boxer and Carly Firoina remains too close to call. It might not matter anyway: Joseph I. Lieberman has scheduled a press conference for later that afternoon, and is expected to announce that — after seeing the strength of the mandate the voters have given the G.O.P. — he’ll begin conferencing with Republicans when Congress reconvenes in January.

What Nate is describing is a statistically possible outcome assuming we get the 5%, once in a century election cycle. Gallup’s once in a century results seem to indicate that is where we are heading. I have been expecting this for a while. I have seen incredible House trends in RCP’s election data. I have seen a single polls swing 15% points towards the GOP in the last week. One example is ME-2, another is NV-3. There are a lot of these shifts in all corners of the nation. This means a wave – a really big wave.

I have also seen this blow out in early voting trends, such as we see in PA:

If we assume the GOP will lead with independents 60-40% (a well established trend in many national and state-wide polls), and the Dems lose 15% of their base while the GOP only loses 5%, then PA would see a the GOP win the early vote by 23.5% (61.8%-38.2%). That would be one helluva wave out there to sweep across PA if the GOP was winning generally by 20+% in PA.

I could envision waking up on Wednesday to find only 1-2 Democrat Congressman left standing in VA (Bobby Scott for sure, and maybe Jim Moran). It is that bad out there.

Let’s get back to those stunning Gallup numbers and look at the ‘trajectory’ over the last month. The GOP lead was shrinking for a while giving the impression the Dems may stave off some of the damage. But the last week proves that whatever the source of that hesitation to throw the Democrats out is now gone. The last trend sees movement back to a GOP landslide (click to enlarge):

A more interesting way to look at this data is to see how the Democrat and GOP generic lead will fall into two distinct bands come Tuesday:

Here we see how where the GOP edge will fall (inside the two red lines) verses the Democrat range (the two blue lines). Whether one uses the high or low turnout models from Gallup, the news is really bad for the Democrats.

Gallup also notes and ever expanding GOP lead with independents. They show something on the order of a 30% lead for the GOP with independents, which if true will be why so many races fall to the GOP that no one expected (think CA and WA for sure):

Ninety-two percent of Democrats are voting for the Democratic candidate in their district, and 96% of Republican likely voters are voting for the Republican candidate. Independents tilt toward the Republican candidate by a sizable 59% to 31% margin.

This 30% lead with independents is larger than anything I have seen from Gallup. When I recently computed early voting theoretical results I always assumed 20%. This alone would tilt a lot of state-wide races into the GOP column. But I do not see how you lose 30% of the center and also not lose a lot of the Democrat base that exists near the center. There is no way the center left dems are staying with the Democrat party 96-4%. In those previous calculations I ran scenarios assuming a 15% loss of the Dem party voters (a small amount). That pretty much threw the Dems out on their ears everywhere – and then some.

With these new numbers I am very confident in my previous predictions of a GOP gain of 70-80 house seats and 9-11 senate seats. If anything I would increase my senate prediction to 10-11 seats, confirming a GOP take over of both house of Congress.

This is what happens when the hyper-partisans on the fringe 20% piss off the rest of the country – you get these kinds of results. A huge warning for the GOP, Tea Party and conservative movement. A harsh but well earned lesson for the far left.

Update: Trying to get your mind wrapped around these numbers is not easy. Here is the Weekly Standard’s Sunday night attempt.

When the country is fed up with two-faced politicians spouting fantasy BS, why would you go out on the last Sunday before the election and spout fantasy political BS?

If you listened to Democrats this morning they claim America loves them, supports their policies, blames the GOP for the mortgage collapse (we all know it was due to risky liberal schemes to give loans to people who could not handle them, wiping out the savings and decades of hard work by all those who DID handle their mortgages, and their lives and their families…), and they will win on Tuesday. This is insanity – they clearly don’t hear us yet.

I had to listen to so much BS I had turn the TV. This is what is wrong with the deaf, dumb and blind pols in DC (and I don’t mean ‘dumb’ in the mute sense). Pure denial. No attempt to accept blame for monstrous deficits. No backing down on the idiotic spin that letting people keep the money they earn is some how ‘spending’ on tax cuts. No indication these people are listening to the people. Just the promise to continue driving the country into the ditch if America saves them.

What moron thought up this strategy? The Democrats went on TV and made the best case for their rejection. Better than any Tea Party or GOP ad, these delusional elites went on TV and proved why the Democrats need to be wiped out of as many seats as possible.

The real October surprise – Democrats keep doing more to make the case for their defeat than anyone thought possible.

The context of this election is set. For the third time in 4 decades a Democrat President has pushed a liberal agenda via a liberal-led Congress and been smacked down by the voters. Carter, Clinton and now Obama have all followed a similar trajectory. For those on the left not getting the message – wait until Wednesday.

Carter is a well established disaster, who lucked into office after Nixon and Agnew resigned in shame and Speaker Ford rose to the presidency to give a needed pardon (to avoid what happened with the Clinton impeachment mess). Carter’s legacy was the rise of Ronald Reagan and modern conservatism. After Mr. Malaise-in-Chief the nation found its shining city on the hill through the optimism of Reagan, and the country flourished.

Clinton is regularly confused as a successful president because he limped through impeachment. But the fact is he was a disaster as well. He too lucked into office due to a quirky little 3rd party candidate (with a good core issue – deficits). Never achieving even close to majority support, Clinton helped bring on the rise of the GOP Congress – something that had not been seen in many decades. 1994 was a historic year in rejecting liberal command and control approaches to everyday American life. When Clinton came into office his party led both houses of Congress and were in the White House. By the end of it the GOP would go into 2001 with all three in their hands. Not a sign of success in my book.

Barak Obama was able to exceed Bill Clinton’s self destruction on many fronts. He racked up more deficits in 2 years than I think Clinton did in 8 (just guessing here). Clinton left office – thanks to a GOP Congress – with balanced budgets (he vetoed them twice over non-issues before capitulating before the upcoming election). Obama is looking at trillion dollar ANNUAL deficits as far as the eye can see. The Clinton-Democrat 1994 rejection happened during an economic growth period. And the lefty Hilary-care bill failed to be passed. The Obama-Democrat 2010 rejection is happening during the worst recession in a century, and Obamacare is a rallying cry about what is wrong with DC these days.

The Washington Post has the grim news for the Dems in a new election eve poll out today:

Among those most likely to cast ballots in their congressional districts, 49 percent say they side with the Republican candidate, 45 percent with the Democratic one. This four-point GOP edge puts Republicans in an even stronger position than they were heading into the final days of the 1994 election.

A narrow majority of likely voters, 52 percent, also disapproves of the way Obama is handling his job as president. That’s the same as the percentage of Election Day 1994 voters who said they disapproved of President Clinton’s performance, according to that year’s exit polling.

The WaPo/ABC poll is a complete outlier in terms of absolute numbers. The GOP is much farther ahead than the 5% they claim. But when comparing apples to apples, they are seeing the same environment that decimated the Dems in 1994. The Dems would be lucky if 2010 will be that good.

Everyone is predicting 50+ seat losses in the House for the Dems, with it easily going above 60. The RCP House data shows the Dems losing arouind 64 house seats, as more and more Dems districts sink under the GOP wave. RCP has the Dems at 171 safe or leaning seats and the GOP at 222. By these numbers the GOP has probably already gained 44 seats, and we have not even gotten into the 42 tossup seats.

One has to wonder, after being sent the same message three times, if the left will ever get a clue. They can’t spin their mistakes anymore. No one buys it. No one wants incompetent, corrupt and substandard big government solutions. Democrats get elected promising to be centrists, and then get whacked 2 years later for not keeping their word and being flaming liberals instead. After this third round of deception and rejection I cannot fathom very many Americans buying the Democrat BS anymore. If it is as bad as some predict come Tuesday, the Democrats will be in the wilderness for a long time.

Update: CNN’s generic ballot poll is out today and it shows pending disaster for the Dems:

The GOP’s 10 point advantage in the “generic ballot” question in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation national survey released Sunday is slightly larger than the seven point advantage Republican candidates had on the eve of the 1994 midterms, when the party last took control of Congress from the Democrats.

Again, worse than 1994, by quite a bit. I may have to up my prediction of a 75 house seat pick up by the GOP.

Soon to be Ex-Speaker Pelosi and soon to be Ex Majority Leader (and Senator) Reid and our young, inexperienced President have achieved something fairly impressive this election – they united the nation in common cause.

I say this because I disagree with what two very experienced Democrat pollsters have written in the WaPo this morning regarding the mood of the country coming into the final days of this historic election cycle:

President Obama’s post-partisan America has disappeared, replaced by the politics of polarization, resentment and division.

In a Univision interview on Monday, the president, who campaigned in 2008 by referring not to a “Red America” or a “Blue America” but a United States of America, urged Hispanic listeners to vote in this spirit: “We’re gonna punish our enemies and we’re gonna reward our friends who stand with us on issues that are important to us.”

Recently, Obama suggested that if Republicans gain control of the House and/or Senate as forecast, he expects not reconciliation and unity but “hand-to-hand combat” on Capitol Hill.

What a change two years can bring.

The fact is this is simply a sign of where the unity and common cause is focused, and what it is aimed at eliminating. Once again a party his being thrown out of office for being too aloof, too outside the common ground of the center and too corrupt. The tea Party movement was a spark of gestalt realization that DC has too much power, too many incompetent bureaucrats and too much time on their hands. It created an alliance of agreement and unity that spans the left of center, right of center and some of the far right. There are still ‘true conservatives’ out their wailing it’s their turn to remake America in the social conservative image, but they don’t have the votes or support to take this country where it does not wish to go, any more than their far left liberal ‘enemies’ did. The nation is in a rare moment of post-partisan agreement.

Post partisanship is not hard to retain and hold. It simply means dropping the RINO and DINO crap and letting people express their views without retribution. That is the personal responsibility that must come out of the mess of the last two years. Neither party is respected right now – independents are the new power.

It is finally clear the power of DC, derived from its over interpretation of the Commerce Clause and its trillion dollar budgets, corrupts the minds and intentions of even the best. The path that is before us this November is one that curtails the government in a careful and managed manner. This new goal will take a decade to make happen and will require respectful dialogue and steps too small for the patience of some. There is too slow and too abrupt – and like a ‘true independent’ I am of the opinion there will be an optimum solution that will be different for each and every federal program and agency soon to be on the chopping block.

Some solutions have become obvious. Public Broadcasting can be completely cut from the budget. We have 5000 channels on cable, we don’t need to subsidize any of them. Keep and expand C-SPAN, allow more visibility into statewide government and panels and commissions. Take the money from PBS and expose government to the governed.

The Department of education can be basically gutted. This Nixon-Carter era disaster has done more to lower our education standards than anything else. It’s attempt to push one-size-fits-all solutions has proven the foolishness of this approach once again. It has also helped establish a bloated and unresponsive education system in every state. Dismantle it and provide a clearing house for new methods and successes to be communicated across the country. Let it be our repository of things that worked, lesson plans that succeeded and can be shared.

Allow it to be a pool of emergency funds for impoverished school districts – a very small pool with tight requirements. No more $578 million elementary school buildings as monuments to monumental egos. If LA & CA can waste that much of their tax payer’s money while being billions in debt, they sure as hell don’t need federal handouts – they need a list of priorities and a backbone. The DoEd should be a small national resource that has no authority to dictate anything to anyone (except who gets emergency funds).

The EPA needs an overhaul, while NASA, NOAA, USGS and the DOE need to be integrated and streamlined from a management stand point. There is a lot of overlap and conflict in the areas of national science and technology that can be made much more effective with a better partnership with the private sector, allowing the government to lead in areas too risky for corporate financing alone to tackle. We waste billions in overlapping efforts and agenda driven ‘science’. CO2 will not be pollutant nor will it be taxed or managed. Global warming will not be a niche science with low standards, it will have to prove itself the same as all other engineering and scientific concepts.

November 2nd is going to be a historic moment, and the results will be a mandate that cannot be fumbled by a few who want it all for themselves. The liberal debacle of the last two years has created a new, post partisan coalition. If handled right, it will center itself around solid and acceptable common ground and begin building momentum towards 2012 – and the hard work ahead. It took over 200 years for the government to grow out of control, many times out of the necessity of the time (e.g., the ridiculous national helium reserve from the days of blimps and WW I). It will take time, dialogue, debate and compromise to fix.

The energy of the wave hitting DC Tuesday is enormous because it comes from so many united in the rejection of Obama, Reid and Pelosi. It is not united in the details of going forward. We only have the general parameters to get started: lower taxes, lower spending through minimal government, more personal freedom and responsibility, more respect for diversity, no dictating behavior or preferential treatment of groups (unions, races, or religions). No government health care – ever. Get the lawyers out of our lives as well (tort reform everywhere). Unlock the individual initiative by removing regulations and laws meant to keep established companies in power.

And then there are things we know we must fix which are also political lightening rods: Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. First step to finally fixing this is to pass a law that freezes the current approach for everyone over 45 years old. Allow those up to 50 or so to participate in any new systems with their own money. Once these basic rules are set we can review options and look at the costs to support those grandfathered in the existing systems and those ready to go a new route. With those 45 and over guaranteed the current system not matter what, no one can use scare tactics to push off reform once again.

This wave is historic and exciting, but it is also a huge responsibility. Everyone who has stood up to reject the liberal madness now must step up and work to fix the problem. We have been united, but it cannot be a moment of petulant frustration, where it is thrown to others to take the risks and do the hard work. This is a monumental time in history, and we may not have a leader in the White House capable of grabbing hold of it and moving us back in the right direction. Enjoy the moment Tuesday, but be prepared for the tough work ahead.

Pennsylvania is going to be the prime example of how pollsters just missed this election. The GOP has had a regular but small lead in the state for the entire month of October, as if the Dems are somehow still in the statewide (and by extension the CD) races. But we now have a sample of nearly 100,000 early votes, and the picture is quite different.

To put it bluntly, the GOP voters are so intense they are swamping the Democrats – who hold a significant registration lead in the state (click to enlarge):

All one has to do is compare the last two sets of data to see something extraordinary here. The 2010 registered voter data is completely flipped on its head. The GOP registered voter deficit of -14% turns into a GOP early voter lead of +16%. That is a swing of 30%!

In the 2009 VA Governor’s race we saw a 20% swing from 2008 to 2009, resulting in a GOP blow out. This and the NJ governor race in 2009 were the first signs of a political backlash – the likes of which almost no one has seen in living memory. The wave continued to wreak havoc in January of 2010, in the MA Senate special election. It seems the wave has only strengthened and picked up energy as it has traveled to the November elections next Tuesday. Because this kind of turn out is just amazing:

In comparison, during the 2006 and 2008 elections, absentee ballots were returned almost equally between Democrats and Republicans.

During 2006, the two parties returned exactly 82 percent of ballots. During 2008, Democrats returned 88 percent of absentee ballots, compared to 89 percent returned by Republicans. Republicans requested over 8,600 more ballots than Democrats in 2006, compared to only 3,400 more in 2008.

The data is awkwardly being reported in percentages of requested ballots by party. But what it indicates is the GOP and Dems basically voted in equal numbers in 2006 and 2008. Bottom line: a 1% difference in returned ballots for each party is going to result in less than 1% difference in early voters by party. With the GOP running so far ahead this year in early voting it is clear something big is happening in PA.

As I have done before, I can run two scenarios through these early voter numbers and estimate the GOP and Dem votes produced. The first model is the 60-40/95 scenario where each party holds 95% of its party’s voters, but the GOP take the independents by 20% (60-40). If that is how these voters voted, then the GOP would win by almost 16% (57.9%-42.1%).

But I do not believe that is an accurate model, because I do not think the Dems can hold their left of center base. Assuming a paltry 15% defection rate for the Dems we get the 60-40/D:85 scenario, where the Dems only hold 85% of their voters, the GOP does 95% of its party voters and the independents still go to the GOP by 20%. In this scenario Dems lose the early vote by 23.5% (61.8%-38.2%).

These are staggering numbers, but early voters typically only make up around 15-25% of the total PA vote (a range that changes over time as early voting becomes easier and more popular, on top of the intensity between midterm and presidential races). However, one thing I have noticed with early voting is that the trends are established very quickly and do not move at all over time. A week ago, with a fraction of these votes in, PA was in the same place (but not quite as bad for the Dems). The early vote tally is like a massive poll, with 100,000 samples and no guesswork needed for turnout models or intensity by party ID. This trend is locked in.

And right now it looks like a GOP blowout in PA.

This election year has become just too gross, thanks to the Democrats and their ‘do anything for power’ madness. Even Bill Clinton has fallen back into the sewer. We learned last night that Bill Clinton was once again President Obama’s emissary to try and convince (bribe with some other job) a democrat candidate to leave an election race. This time, Clinton tried to convince the only Democrat in the Florida Senate race to bow out and make room for the lifetime Republican turned mercenary pol:

In an appearance on Fox news Thursday night Republican-turned-independent Senate candidate, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist said he spoke with Rep. Kendrick Meek and “several people” at the White House about having Meek step out of the race.

Crist would not specify to whom he spoke at the White House, but he did say he spoke to Meek about the possible shift and that Meek was “considering it.”

For this to work you have to have a conspiracy. Meek as to get something to get out of the race, and Crist needs to commit to caucusing with the Democrats if he wins – usually for something in return. And Obama holds all the power to bestow the gifts.

This is not Clinton’s first run as briber-in-chief. He was also the water boy for Obama’s efforts to get Joe Sestak out of the primary against Arlen Specter. Another disgusting exclamation point to a sadly enlightening election cycle. More here and here.

Time to clean out DC and start over with better people. And let’s leave the choice of representation to the voters. One thing is clear, we need much stronger laws regarding election manipulation.

The Democrats have become unhinged this election cycle. It’s as if they need to add an enormous exclamation point to the end of their two year reign of incompetence and corruption. We have had college scholarships for the needy handed out to congressional family, friends and coworkers. We have had tax evasions, unreported income, back door deals to pass health care and Bill Clinton roaming the land as Obama’s emissary, offering job offers to entice unwanted candidates out of races (an illegal act, BTW). But these classic political foibles pale in comparison to what we are seeing on a grotesque personal level.

We saw it in 2008, with the whisper campaign waged by idiots and fools regarding Governor Palins son – Trig. We saw it with that idiotic attempt to take a college prank and turn it into some mythical sexual dominance act in Kentucky. We saw it with Alan Grayson editing a man’s discussion of how to honor your wife and twist it into some perverted, juvenile attack about women bowing down. And now we see pure fiction being produced about Christine O’Donnell – for a few thousand bucks.

It is a disgusting attempt at an attack, so crass it doesn’t impinge on O’Donnell one bit. It’s worth at least a short review to get a taste of where the liberal left and Democrat party have ended up. This is the Keith Olberman. Chris Mathews, Andrew Sullivan wing of the insane asylum. You have to be incredibly stupid to think this kind of stunt will hurt O’Donnell or the GOP, and these cretins are damn stupid.

As with Conway in Kentucky and Alan Grayson in Florida, Chris Coons will pay a heavy price for this sick stunt. But even more so, this explains why the Democrats are losing the largest element of their base – women. Woman have had enough of this crap from the juvenile-minded liberals. Women really do have much higher standards than this crap assumes.

The Democrats will pay for this. Until they clean out their party and get some adult supervision in there, the Democrat Party is dead. And that begins in a few short days. I can’t wait to see the loser-left have to utter the words Senator Bitch and Senator Witch. Not to mention President Palin sometime in the near future. It is time woman rose above the sewer that is the liberal left, and begin to show their stuff as mothers, daughters and coworkers.

I have put this off long enough, it is time to put out my predictions for Tuesday’s election. Sadly, my being burned in 2006 and 2008 by underestimating the anger of middle America with the GOP left me vowing to avoid making predictions in elections. That vow was never going to last. Actually, in 2008 I knew it was a lost cause well before election day, but decided not to dampen any enthusiasm by admitting McCain-Palin were not going to win. Both rounds were ‘teachable’ moments.

Since then I have tried to be objective and brutally honest. So here I go, without hesitation and fully aware that the middle America voters are not voting for the ‘true conservatives’ this cycle, but voting against rampant liberalism.

The Dems are in trouble because their centrists rolled over and let Obama, Reid and Pelosi run rampant. Obama is in power because middle American voters put him there in the first place – a big mistake everyone now sees. But mistakes can be fixed, and the voters are hell bent to fix their last one come Tuesday. (Point of order – I supported McCain-Palin in 2008).

I am not going to try and nail the most likely outcome to the fraction of a seat (like a Nate Silver does). That is a waste of time and not how to deal with this election. There is no precedent to this year, therefore historical trends are blinders on pollsters and statistical models this cycle – not a source of insight. This is that 1% case the stats know is out there, but cannot model. Gallup has been one of the few organizations willing to really let the data tell the story as it is:

Gallup’s latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with an earlier Gallup report, those voting in this year’s congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.

But even Gallup still assumes that party voters are monolithic and tied to party and not to something larger (like country). It is their Achilles Heel. While the middle America voters are rejecting the Democrats, they are not embracing conservatism (which they threw out of power in 2006 and 2008). This means people see this as a rejection of the Democrat leaders – which opens a lot of people to vote differently. Fiscal conservatism (a.k.a. a libertarian streak) is back in vogue because just about everyone agrees the federal government is way too intrusive and way too incompetent and corrupt. The liberal experiment of the last two years was an unmitigated disaster and forced everyone outside the far left to conclude big government is wrong and needs to be stopped – now. We understand that we need to rely on the American people and their strength, honor and diversity to lead this nation – not brain dead bureaucrats struggling to be God’s gift to humanity. The common ground from center left to far right is the feel we have a libertarian emergency.

Just as we banded together after 9-11 in common cause, we are forging a force to roll back government and return power to the people and the states. This transcends party lines, just as the core of the Tea Party does.

There are signs all over the place this race is going to be a wipe out. Predictions from nearly every objective corner see Dems losing 50 seats – or more. I put the number of Dem House seats lost in the 70-80 seat range. And with that large a wave, the Senate will go to the GOP too. The GOP will pick up WV, WA, and CA, along with PA, CO, NV, IL, IN, AR, ND and WI. That will be the easy part. I would not be surprised to see CT and DE added to the list – the anger with the left is so intense out there.

The reason this will be such a huge wipe out is because of three factors, two of which are well known:

(1) There is an ‘enthusiasm gap’ of enormous proportions out there. The GOP has never had such a wave of support in living memory. Yes, the GOP is energized to vote this year, and the Democrats are not. But that is only part of the wave.

(2) The voters are rejecting the liberals in the Democrat leadership, and this rejection includes independents and centrists. All pollsters show the party faithful being faithful – and voting 9 to 1 for their party’s candidates. This happens every year pretty much. What is different this year (and in all wave election years) is the center has decided to tilt heavily to one side. The GOP is holding a +20% lead with independents this cycle, which is why there are so many races in play. This is the second part of the wave.

(3) The final piece of the wave is Democrat defections. This is not being folded into the polling very well. I think most center-left Democrats are angry with their party for being so hyper-partisan and screwing up so badly that they are playfully telling pollsters they will vote D – when in reality they have no intention to. The center-left is as angry as everyone else, maybe even more so. They see their party becoming some alien monster right before their eyes. They are the true believers who were crushed when Obama turned out to be just another forked tongue, liberal politician. The Clinton and DLC wing of the Democrat party are going to send a huge message – and they are the ones who will be joining the center and making this historic.

It takes all three elements to create a super wave: enthused GOP voters, independents moving en mass to the GOP and center-left Dems defecting in droves. I think the nation is so fed up with our lousy economy and endless deficits they know there is only one answer, and that is to neuter the DC liberals and tie down Barack Obama’s ego. The center and center-left may have finally agreed to the libertarian element of conservatism – and that is a great thing to have happen. It is not a mandate for conservatives, it is an opportunity to join hands as Americans, vote the Dems out and start rolling back Big Government, and the Political Industrial Complex.

And that is why this election is one for the century.

Update: Weekly Standard article noting another way pollsters could be wrong.

Saw this article today on FoxNews.com. It is scary. Voters do not have to prove that they are citizens and are the only ones that have the right to vote in this country? I don’t care if its a federal or state standard. It should be the standard. And this quote tops them all:

“This will enable the many poor people in Arizona who lack driver’s licenses and birth certificates to register to vote,” said Jon Greenbaum, legal director for the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law.

You have got to be kidding! Its not that they are poor. Its that they are illegal!!!!

The 9th Circuit’s chief judge, Alex Kozinski, wrote a sharp dissent, saying the ruling ignored precedent and was flat wrong on its legal analysis.

“Few panels are able to upset quite so many apple carts all at once,” Kozinski concluded. “Count me out.”

Gov. Jan Brewer and Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett issued a joint statement calling the decision an “outrage and a slap in the face to all Arizonans who care about the integrity of their elections.”

“Arizona voters have made their will crystal clear — non-citizens do not have the right to vote,” they wrote. “We will continue to pursue any and all legal remedies to prevent fraudulent voter registration in the State of Arizona, as well as the right of our state citizens to craft appropriate protections.”

This should not only enrage the people of Arizona, it should enrage every American! We have got to stop the voter fraud. It is making a joke of our electoral system. We need to scale back funding for bogus, fluffy, non-helpful, deficit adding programs and spend a little on making sure out votes are legitimate!

DJStrata

Update: Sean Trende at RCP does a similar form of analysis, gets similar answer.

Update: Those not seeing the wave are blinded by denial – so says The Hill. And The Hotline concurs.

Update: Read the analysis and then come back and check out this Hillbuzz rumor about moderate Democrats energized to vote straight GOP in protest. This is the nightmare scenario, where the Dems lose just about all.

– end update

Lots of conflicting stories out there regarding the early voting trends and what they could mean. The complexities with early voting are due to the fact they are a small sample in many cases, and may not accurately represent the final party vote when all is said and done. This data has some limits, but it is not useless.

One thing you can do with the data is determine which group is performing above their registration levels. Voter registration reflects the overall state party affiliation, therefore comparing which political group is out voting early compared registration is a good indication of who may be energized and who is not. This is the enthusiasm gap we hear so much about.

A second thing you can do with early voting tallies is treat them as an approximate turnout model for the election. We can run scenarios through the early voter turnout statistics based on expected (or polled) preferences for each party. For example, Gallup is showing in all their generic voter models what I call a 60-40/95 model, wherein the GOP and Dems each garner ~95% of their party voters and the GOP has a 20% lead (60-40) amongst independent and 3rd party voters. Running this through model through early voting percentages produces a theoretical count of votes cast in early voting. Gallup’s 60-40 GOP lead with independents is the independent gap we hear so much about.

But here’s the rub. I don’t think Democrats are holding their base that well. I think there is a schism between the liberal far left and the moderate, center left. I think Democrats are going to be losing a significant number of their base this year. I don’t think you can lead with 20% of the independents and not pull at least 15% of the Democrat left-of-center voters. So I have decided to run another test, the 60-40/D:85 scenario to see what the vote results in early voting would be like if, as I suspect, there is a significant Democrat defection rate (something we hear nothing about). Here I assume the GOP hold 95% of their party voters, but the Democrats only hold 85%.

So this analysis covers the enthusiasm gap (who is voting above or below their registration levels), what the impact of the GOP lead on independents would mean in terms of early votes cast, and what would the result be if the Dems are also losing 15% of their party voters to defection.

Summary Results:

As we look across the three years of partisan registration data for each state one thing stands out – there is not a lot of movement towards the GOP registration-wise. This is not a surprise, since this election is driven by a rejection of the Democrats, not by any attraction to the GOP.

Most sates show some edge in enthusiasm to the GOP. When using the Gallup 60-40/95 test scenario the GOP wins the theoretical early vote numbers in most states. In those states which show Democrat enthusiasm or simply larger numbers of registered voters, a small 10% defection rate (the 60-40/D:85 scenario) can turn a blue state red (theoretically).

There is an clear GOP enthusiasm edge in the early voting data. When combined with the GOP lead with independent voters (Gallup has measured all month for the GOP) the GOP wins nearly all the early vote contests. But if there are also significant Democrat party defections on top of the enthusiasm and independent gaps, then some ‘swing states’ (like FL and PA) become absolutely toxic to Democrats.

Finally, early voting trends are proving to be very static over time. I have tracked some states daily, and once a percentage is set for one group of voters never really changes. That means the voter intentions are locked in and set already. Whatever the real enthusiasm gap, edge with independents and depth of Democrat defections – this race is set in stone through election day.

Detailed Analysis
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Tags: 2010 election, Early Voting, GOP Wave