As protests ignite across the Muslim/Arab world I can only sit back and marvel at the historic times we live in. While there is a lot of hand wringing left and right, this widening call for freedom is the result expected when the US brought democracy to Iraq and Afghanistan. Once these two country demonstrated years of what democracy means, along with a few cycles of peaceful elections and leadership handover, it appears a tipping point has been reached as one after another of the iron-fisted leaders find their people totally fed up with them:

Two high-ranking Libyan air force pilots have who fled to Malta in their aircraft are reported to have told officials they escaped rather than carry out orders to bomb civilians.

The officers defected as Libyan diplomats in several countries and international organisations resigned in protest at the regime’s violent response to the deepening crisis. They included Muammar Gaddafi’s ambassadors to China, India, Indonesia and Poland, as well as Libya’s representative to the Arab League and most, if not all, of its mission at the United Nations.

Qaddafi made the mistake President Mubarrak avoided – pretending mass killing could save his hold on power. The people of the world cannot be cowed anymore. Yes, to a point they can be persuaded to ignore things, but all that does is build up pressure, so that when the tipping point hits the explosion is all the more powerful.

It is always interesting to see the parallels big and small. Iran is going to feel the largest pressure cooker, being one of the most oppressive with a highly educated and modern civilian base. Even if it holds on, it will turn into some historic derelict like North Korea. But I just don’t see it holding on. In that case too, we will probably witness horrific bloodshed by those desperate to hold onto power.

All of this upheaval and heavy handed response sheds an illuminating light on events in Wisconsin. While the Democrat and union responses are not bloody (yet), they are heavy-handed and desperate. What we see in the Middle East is the price that has to be paid to bring a society back out of the darkness of autocratic, oppressive rule. And it is a heavy price.

Which in turn means it is best to never lose the freedoms of the individual and society to know-it-all bureaucrats and self-proclaimed Messiahs. [I bet Obama is really regretting the over-the-top stage craft of his election now!] If Libya and Egypt and Tunisia tell us anything it is to not let government and its lackey organizations get too much power.

In Wisconsin the left is protesting lack of control over the rest of us, while in the Middle East the people are protesting oppressive and central control of their lives.

Oh the delicious irony of it all.

The Wisconsin showdown appears to be a straw that breaks the patience of the American people. I need only point out a few simple math facts for the liberal numskulls on the left to see why the anger being shown by the protesters pails in comparison to what is building up in the minds of parents and voters.

First off, the changes being made by the governor and the legislature (yes, the people’s house and senate do agree and will pass these measures) are modest. Having to personally invest in your health care and retirement is not a major sacrifice. Demanding the rest of us who have to make our own living outside the leech that is government is tantamount to a spoiled child pouting. Yes Wisconsin government employees – you need to pay your own way here.

The left has made a huge mistake on this issue – everyone must chip in to get us through this tragedy of bloated and incompetent government and the economic destruction is has wrought. Those who refuse will be ostracized for a long, long time. Politically, getting on the wrong side of this will result in a swift ride into oblivion.

And politically speaking, the protesters are missing the math. For every teacher whining they have to share the burden of THEIR health care costs and THEIR retirement there are 20+ families whose kids are getting a substandard education and being told they must foot the bill for the teachers’ benefits. That means 40 voters (assuming to parents) per stubborn teacher calling in sick and putting their lazy greed over that of the children.

But even worse is the number of people who do not work in the government and have to invest in their own health care and retirement AND pay for these greedy government workers as well. The private sector is much larger than those living off the public dole. And we all know where the vast majority of them are going to come down.

The need for public employee unions is a farce. As the governor and others have noted many times, these workers are protected by civil servant laws – not through collective bargaining. By giving the voters the finger here, they have shown how collective stupidity can result in the broad (and right) conclusion unions do not belong in the public work place where a few malcontents can hold the voters hostage.

Thankfully, since the voters and their legislatures control the civil service laws, this problem can be easily and readily dealt with. And no court in the land can overturn the will of the people when it comes to cutting back government waste and abuse.

Those who exist off the labors of the private sector workers took to the street of Wisconsin to claim they are better than the rest of us poor saps. The next message will be the response from all those poor saps making a living in the private sector, and it will not be pro-union.

Addendum: After reading Governor Palin’s plea to average union workers I want to expand on something important. Palin rightfully lauds the work of teachers having so many in her family (as do I). These people have our most precious treasures to teach and help.

But let me establish some context here. Doctors and nurses also have special gifts and capabilities that can save our children from disease or injury. Can a teacher cure cancer in a child? No, they cannot. The car mechanic down the street makes sure our vehicles are safe and in tip top operating form. Can a teacher make sure the brakes are working on your car? My guess is only a minority have the skills and interest. Can a teacher the computers and software being used to teach the children? My experience has been many teachers are fairly technology illiterate – definitely not up to the standards of leading the market in computer system evolution.

The point is the private sector has its fair share of unsung heroes. So when the unions stomp their petulant little feet in a fit of greed, don’t expect the aura of the teacher to carry the day. Not when it is in direct conflict with all those other average citizens doing their jobs and getting by as best they can. This is not unions verses GOP – this is public workers verses private sector workers. And we all know which side as the larger numbers and greater political clout.

One of the reasons the American people have become very libertarian in their views on government is because the government has become a massive money-pit of incompetence. As I listened to Democrats cry ‘Wolf!’ in the well of the House, claiming that cutting useless programs would starve children and hurt the elderly I realized no one believes this liberal garbage any more – not even the culprits on the House we were mouthing simpleton platitudes in their ridiculously expensive (and quite bloated) outfits.

The fat cat Democrats were crying about the fact they were not going to be living high on the hog anymore, pretending to do good when all they produce is failures and deficits, when it dawned on me only the truly gullible are buying it anymore. Congress and the Feds are no more likely to fix anything than the tooth fairy is.

The problem is that the federal bureaucracy is brimming over with incompetents in way over their heads. I have seen 10 years of people promoted into decision-making positions with no clue what is they need to manage. And when confronted by those who do know, the survival instinct is to move the expertise out and pad the team with a sea of incompetence – deep enough to make the head incompetent appear to be in control simply by comparison.

I give you as a prime example of the lameness of this generations imagination and competence a recent study that blew my mind away:

According to the CDC, 37 million adults in the US have hearing loss and close to half of those older than 75 are affected. This week, U.S. researchers found that people who are hard of hearing have higher risk of developing dementia as they age.

Hearing loss is as much a feature of old age as gray and thinning hair – not to mention dementia. Having glanced at this monument to idiocy I can see the ‘science’ behind it is of the same low caliber that created the myth of man-made, CO2-driven, global warming. I can’t wait to see the sequel:

“Researchers discover that gray hair is linked to dementia, as are birthday candles, sunrises and the number of full moons.”

Folks – the missing link in all this is ‘old age‘! I promise you that we not only wasted a lot of money on this, when they go through the next phase we will be barraged by stupid conclusions like “using a hair dye to take away the gray hair may be linked to correcting dementia, since most people using dye to cover their gray are no likely to have serious signs of dementia’ [since most people don’t get serious dementia].

We have filled the federal bureaucracy with wall-to-wall incompetence, protected by endless reams of process used to cover up their mistakes. The only path forward is to cut government down to the barest minimum. Even needed services (like education) will be cut if there as been no clear and significant improvement (like education).

Washington DC is still being way too timid about cutting the government down to MINIMAL size. Not “nice to have” size or “how can we not help” size, but minimal size. Back to a level were Americans are free to make their own decisions and live with the consequences of those decisions.

Yesterday the news hit that the national debt had reached the total economic output for a single year. What was barely reported was how 25% of that amount was piled on in just the last 2 years of mad liberal spending under Obama, Pelosi and Reid. And since the liberal stimulus spending did NOT energize the economy (just the opposite in fact) the current trajectory of government waste and abuse is expected to add $2 Trillion a year before Obama leaves office. It is expected to double before the end of the decade. What took 200 years to accumulate the liberals in DC will accomplish 5 years of recklessness.

What a fricking disaster!

We need to take drastic actions and now. We need to sell off the money pit that is the US Postal Service – and make billions in the process. Get rid of the Department of Education – a $100 billion a year failure. Get rid of the department of energy and move its research labs under a new technology research organization for the non-military.

There are tons of programs who have been run by incompetents and have cost 2, 10 and 20 times what they should. The government bureaucracy will not shutdown failure and only squelches those who try to save money and do things right.

When I see the lame numbers and actions coming out of this Congress it kills me we have such wimps as our so-called leaders. The time for historic action is well past. It is time for true heroes to stand up and be counted.

Sorry folks, buried under family issues and a massive work load so posting has been impossible. But I can’t help but note that some kind of transformational match has been lit in the MIddle East, what with the departure of Mubarak and elections this fall in Egypt, the dissolving of the Palestinian Cabinet, protests flaring up all over.

I still don’t see this as being an anti-west brush fire, but more a pro-democracy grass roots fire storm. While Islamo Fascists groups may want to take advantage of these opportunities, I personally believe the forces behind these uprisings are to strong to be bent to any one faction’s will. The decades of frustration with the decades of stagnation while the rest of the planet ushered in the modern world with all its benefits and treasures has burst upon the international stage. There is no way to divert this force from the path it is on – even if we don’t have a clear understanding yet where that path leads. The worst decision would be to try and get in the way of the change and stop it. That can only lead to being run over and rejection by the very masses behind the transformation.

We live in interesting times. I believe most of this upheaval will be seen as progress towards freedom. Some places will slip backwards and become centers of hate and violence. There is no perfection in this universe we live in. But by and large I think the torch George W Bush lit in Iraq and Afghanistan, and strengthened in Pakistan, as turned into a historic grass roots brush fire that is consuming the Middle East and Arab countries.

Would love to hear what others think – so have at it in the comments!

I have to admit I think events, timing and the US position on the turmoil in Egypt as been as good as could be hoped. Clearly the people wanted a clean slate for their elections, and did not feel comfortable with the old regime hanging around too long. This would have at least allowed the argument that the candidates and subsequent winner were the result of incumbent power (see Putin and Russia for the perfect example).

Mubarak and the military also did the right thing by taking their time in making these changes. They were not really chased out immediately, but did not try to hang on by use of force. The delay in stepping down has lanced a huge boil of frustration on the streets of Egypt. Now there is celebration for a new democratically elected government, which actually neuters the Islamicists.

I am optimistic that all the hand wringing by the far right is all for naught. Yes, the Muslim Brotherhood is a problem, but after assassinating two previous Presidents their credibility is probably not as broad as some fear. Whatever the risk, it is better to test democracy than throw it aside just because there are no guarantees (the old way of doing business in the Middle East). We have heard these cries of panic before in Iraq with the Sunnis, then the Mahdi Army, then Iranian influence – all of which never really came about. We heard it about Pakistan and Afghanistan. While imperfect and not the same as Western democracies (some of which in the EU America would resist to its dying breathe), we have to be positive and have faith in the essence of freedoms we cherish and defend to the death.

Democracy is beginning to spread in the Middle East. It was never going to be pretty or risk free or easy. It is why the fringes left and right feared the Bush doctrine. The jury is still out and will be for a decade at least. But there is renewed hope in today’s news.

In Egypt there are celebrations of a new hope, an undiscovered country and a new journey on the road of democracy. Don’t let the hand wringers and the doubters belittle what is happening. And I applaud the Obama administration so far. This is very risky business, but so far we have avoided a violent, Islamist revolution and a bloody dictatorial crack down. You could only expect more from Hollywood fiction.

This winter has proven that the world is unprepared to meet the basic needs of its citizens. As the myth of global warming spread among the ignorant – fed by the greedy and power hungry – no one stopped to even think about what was behind the delusion of global warming cries. Let alone the dangerous ramifications of being being duped.

As a niche area of an immature science, too few of us realized the true essence of the matter. We allowed respect for ‘scientists’ to lead us to assume a certain level of openness, a certain level of mathematical credibility and a certain level of honesty. We gave a lot of benefit of doubt to the people behind these myths – initially. All that has been proven to have been misplaced.

The illusion of openness was shattered by a handful of arrogant people who were enjoying some backwater lime light. They rigged the ‘scientific process’ of peer review by journal so no one could challenge their claims. They bullied journals, squelched dissent and hid contrary results. So Goebbels like.

The illusion of mathematical credibility was destroyed when a clear -eaded and rigorous analysis of the uncertainty around their claims produced error bars that dwarf the magnitude of the supposed century-long warming (errors of +/- 3+°C going back in time against a signal of 0.8°C of warming). The fact is, within the ability to measure a global temperature anomaly, the last 100 years has been the same temperature, with short cool and warm periods that actually follow the gyrations of the ocean currents. A sort of ‘duh!’ realization when you consider (a) the mass of water compared to air and (b) the heat content of water compared to air. The engine of our climate is contained in the reservoir of heat captured and being held in our oceans, not in the marginal atmospheric gas called CO2.

And the assumed honesty was lost when the linchpin of the entire argument fell to the admission that tree ring proxies ‘diverged’ from actual temperatures in the modern era after 1960. Instead of admitting this divergence greatly expanded the error bars on tree ring data representing any kind of regional temp (not even a global temp- another fanciful leap never scientifically justified), the ‘scientist’ hid this from everyone by plastering the thermometer record over this scientific truth. They did this because they knew the proxy divergence would destroy the entire foundation of the global warming concept, and the credibility of the environmental movement on the left.

And so it has. Now there is no credibility for these people – they are the laughing stocks who claimed the Himalayan Glaciers would all be gone in 14 years and that snow would never return to England in the winter.

But I still allow some blame of complacency to lie on all of our shoulders. Consider myself guilty as charged on this count. I let the reputation of science past by the greats of Newton, Kepler, Watson & Crick, Tesla, Einstein and many, many others blind me to the fact this crew were poseurs. Al Gore should have been a warning sign of trouble – the guy is basically clueless. If you think Dan Quayle was not too sharp, Gore makes him look like a damn genius.

We should have simply looked at the claims and wonder why was there such a mountain of panic from an ant hill of temperature rise? Think about it folks – they are wetting their pants of a supposed 0.8°C rise in temperature over 100 years! Forget about the fact we have been coming out of a mini Ice Age for 400 years (some warming is expected). Forget the fact there is no way to get this global accuracy today, let alone use sparse data from before the time of wide spread electricity (let alone indoors plumbing) to get a global temperature number over 100 years ago for comparison. Forget about the poor math and the cover up of the data proving they had no claim for long term comparisons. Forget about this handful of arrogant ignoramuses dominating their little backwater of science and duping the gullible.

0.8°C over 100 years?

In the time it took me to write this post this morning the temperature rose 1°C. Every hour in the morning and in the evening the temperature changes by multiple degrees per hour. Every day the temperatures range by tens of degrees, and every year by many tens of degrees. All the while life on Earth suffers through these traumatic conditions!

Perspective is key here. Would we panic if there was 1% more water in the air any given day? Do we care if the low is 5°C or 5.005°C? Remember, this is 0.8°C per 100 years. that is 0.008°C per year. That is 0.0000022°C per day.

Let us compare this to something else to understand how minuscule and irrelevant this claim is. if I started out with 1 cent and increased it by this fractional amount per day (addition, not compound interest) it would take me 44,500 days to get my second penny. That is 122 years.

These so called scientist know this, which is why they had to create ‘models’ that did not assume a linear increase, but used an unproven feedback loop to accelerate the build-up of temperature. In their models CO2 creates out of control green house feedback. Interesting since CO2 is a fractional gas (~3%) while the dominant green house gas – H20 – apparently sits around and does nothing.

We all need to be more skeptical and more demanding of such wild and far reaching claims. The onus stands on those making the claims to have bullet-proof math, data and models. And at a minimum, their predictions have to hold water. Which they do not in this case. The first predictions of runaway warming were made 30 years ago. They interestingly match those being made today in terms of per-decade warming. And yet, they have been proven wrong by history. If you can’t predict results your claims are garbage – science 101.

We should never have given this nonsense anymore credibility than Wyley E Coyote suspended in air in violation of the force of gravity. But at least the Coyote was funny. Unprepared infrastructure has lost lives. This is not something to take lightly, or forgive easily. There is no ‘moving on’ from the farce that has become the IPCC and its industry of deception.

In the ho-hum doldrums of Obama’s Lame Duck session of congress it is clear the Democrat Party has succumbed to its hyper-partisan liberal fringe. It is not just the liberal spending and government takeover binge of the last congress, nor the realization the White House has not intentions of moderating, just hyper-spinning. The fact is the democrat party’s grass roots are rotting out, killing off any semblance of ‘centrist’ under the weight of liberal weeds:

The Democratic Leadership Council, the iconic centrist organization of the Clinton years, is out of money and could close its doors as soon as next week, a person familiar with the plans said Monday.

The DLC, a network of Democratic elected officials and policy intellectuals had long been fading from its mid-’90s political relevance, tarred by the left as a symbol of “triangulation” at a moment when there’s little appetite for intra-party warfare on the center-right.

As we have seen the far left is in full denial and on ‘transmit’ only. They have no time for reason or diversity of views.

Well, it does make it easier to pick a side in the future elections. Sad to see the party of my parents and grand parents die out this way, but there is no use pretending anymore. The Democrat Party of LBJ and JFK is dead and gone and now consumed by Marxist, socialist ideologues.

More over at Hot Air

Update: Ed Morrissey notes how moderate Democrat defections to the GOP are a continuation of a major realignment. This is realignment is actually two shifts happening together. As the Dems have moved to the far left, the rest of the country has joined in common cause to resist and roll back their crazy ideas. Polarization is the true force behind this shift. The more shrill the left become, the more people who drift away into the opposition to shut them down.

It is a classic example of how purity to ideology destroys broad democratic support. Democracy at its level-headed finest.

Sorry for the light posting this weekend – needed a weekend off. Sadly I was introduced to family genealogy on Saturday morning via Ancestry.com – don’t really remember a thing until the Super Bowl kickoff (which I missed). Talked about sucking you in!

Anyway, it was an interesting holiday from the stress of work and the disappointments of our politics. The game last night was well balanced and reamined undecided to the last few possessions – always good in a Super Bowl. The Pack had the momentum and strength starting and finishing. The Steelers were able to turn the momentum around and put a good scare into the Pack at the end of the first half and beginning of the second.

And of course the commercials were a mixed bag. Loved the new Coke commercials, can’t stand the Friday’s commercials (when will ads grow up?). Go Daddy is always a mess. Anyway, hope to hear about everyone’s Super Bowl experiences and take on the game and commercials.

The government has put out the unemployment numbers for January, and they are not good (though I doubt the math-challenged media will report anything but rosy news). As Ed Morrissey notes, the reason the unemployment dropped was not the paltry 34,000 jobs added in January, it was because the number of people considered to be ‘in the work force’ shrunk by nearly 1 million people in the past few months:

… the civilian labor force dropped from 153,690,000 in December to 153,186,000 in January after a recent November peak of 153,950,000. That was a drop of 504,000 in January from December, and 764,000 in two months. The participation rate dropped from 64.5% in November to 64.3% in December and 64.2% in January.

I have noted before how the labor force is well below the pre-recession norms, and therefore the unemployment rate is deceptive (and too optimistic). In that last post on the matter I selected the July labor force trends for the decade. You can select any month and get the same basic trend over the decade, but let’s adjust our equations for January 2011 and assuming a steady work force increase that tracks with the population increase.

The following graph shows the January workforce levels since 2000 per the US Labor Department (click to enlarge).

As can be seen there are some fluctuations each year, but a linear trend line (red) can be calculated that indicates the annual growth per year for January. It indicates the January 2011 workforce level should have been around 155,500,000 people – a good 2.3 million more than were reported in the January 2011 unemployment numbers.

If the unemployment is computed against this nominal workforce level, then the actual unemployment rate is a staggering 10.85%. This is the real unemployment number, because it represents the gap between the total available workforce and those actually working (155.5 million and 138.63 million). This more accurate equation indicates a whopping 16.87 million people are unemployed.

If we look at the U6 number (those unemployed and underemployed) the picture of economic suffering in the country is even worse. The real January 2011 U6 is 17.35% (not the 16.1% reported). This represents 24.66+ million people underemployed.

Anyone reporting that the January 2011 unemployment numbers are a positive sign has a huge “Can’t Do Simple Math” sign blinking over their head.

Update: AJStrata can confirm for Rick Santelli that he was right when he tried to debunk the spin coming from the media:

You and I both know that the unemployment rate, the labor force moving in and out, those giving up, is really probably your best statistical reason for the drop to 9.0 (percent).

As I showed above that IS 100% correct, it was people giving up on getting work that shrunk the unemployment, not new jobs.