The nation has learned a brutal lesson these last 3 years, ever since we naively elected a man of no great accomplishment to the most important and demanding job on the planet. We have a ‘community organizer’ who ruthlessly worked his way up through the political strata – not once accomplishing more than his own election – to become a President so unprepared he will go down in history as the poster child for why real leaders have to have done some real leading at some point in their life.

President Obama thinks in the vague, finger-paint-focus of someone who only has a cursory grasp of the wide spectrum of specialties that go to make up human culture and society. Outside of reading well from a telempropter, the man is nothing but a spectator on the rest of humankind. And because of this it makes sense he is the news media’s darling – for they too do little more than watch others and attempt to report on what they are seeing. It is why they fail so impressively when the story requires a grasp of details and nuance that only those who invest serious study or experience can skillfully manage and control, let alone understand.

Consider the difference between the person who can change the oil in the car, and the engineering team it takes to design it and make it strong and safe. The oil-changer has a cursory understanding, while the experts in the field know more than anyone outside their field could hope to grasp in a life time.

Another example: how the news media and pols attempt to weigh in on the scientific screw-up that is the theory of anthropogenic (human caused) global warming. These same people who struggled through public school math, and later ran from the hard science math of BS level classes to the sanctity of BA level credits, pretend they can grasp, weigh, mediate and determine the stronger argument in a sea of theories, statistical analyses and (sadly for AGW alarmists) shoddy work by niche scientists. They are so in under their heads they don’t even understand not all PhDs are equal in strength, integrity, skill and wisdom. They cannot distinguish the ‘impressive’ from the ‘mediocre’.

And so we have now as President the penultimate example of shallow expertise pretending to grasp what is happening around him. And his fellow shallow travelers in the news media run alongside him, just as ignorant and dumbfounded.

Take the jobs report this last month. Unemployment is supposedly down – except when you READ the data you learn unemployment is actually up. Ed Morrissey gathered the data this morning which proves the number of unemployed did not go down as reported:

Update II: More from Bloomberg:

The jobless rate declined as 193,000 people left the labor force and the number of unemployed dropped by 156,000. The share of the eligible population holding a job declined to 58.1 percent, the lowest since July 1983.

So we supposedly added 117,000 jobs, but at the same time 193,000 unemployed, out-of-work Americans stopped being counted as unemployed. Clearly, if they were still being counted as unemployed (since they ARE unemployed), one can perform the necessary 3rd grade math to realize the net effect is a net loss of 76,000 jobs in July. That is not progress.

And still Obama’s math-challenged, media groupies demonstrate once again why there is a floor to ignorance we must never fall below:

U.S. stocks waver after strong jobs report
The government reported that 117,000 jobs were created in the U.S. in July, and unemployment slid down to 9.1%.

AP really pegged the BS meter on that one!

Why the government can’t do the math right is an age old and ubiquitous question. But they don’t. And this erosion of the work force into uncounted limbo has been at work the entire time President Obama has been in office. I have shown every for the last few months that if we used the projected work force size as a normal percentage of our population size (a number easily derived from the workforce history going back to 2000) we find ourselves at a staggering 10.7% unemployment rate, and a 17.1% U6 unemployment rate (which includes partially employed, but still being counted by the government).

Click to enlarge.

This data is straight from the US Government. It shows how the work force was growing with our population up until 2008, when the results of reckless liberal schemes with home mortgage lending requirements finally came crashing down on us. In 2009 the work force stayed flat, but that was the window for real economic stimulus – in the form of tax cuts which hits everyone and every niche of the economy. Instead we got government-trickle down crap from the Democrats which only hit government workers and select government contractors. Even worse, the stimulus came in a painfully slow dribble which today – over two years later – still has not fully flushed out all the stimulus money from the bowels of the bloated federal bureaucracy.

The red line indicates a nominal growth path for the work force, the blue curve shows the harsh reality. Ever since President Obama took control, the work force shrunk as unemployed people stopped being counted by the government as unemployed. This is the false hope those 3rd grade math whizzes cling to – uncounted unemployed hiding the true depth of the problem.

If we were to add 117,000 jobs a month for the next 2 years we could bring all those unemployed back to productive lives. But that would only bring us down to a real 9.1% unemployment, not the error-ridden calculation we see blasted across the news media today. Our economy is not growing, we are not creating jobs and millions of Americans who want to work can’t. And they are losing precious years in their lives.

The failure of our inexperienced commander-in-chief is on full display, as reality begins to bite. Our debt is now equal to our total annual GDP thanks to reckless liberal spending. Our economy is slowly backsliding thanks to incompetent liberal economic policies. There is no escaping these chickens coming home to roost. There is no media-slathered lipstick thick enough to cover this debacle up. And there will be no amount of excuse making or spin that will stop the backlash come November 2012.

Everyone knows it is happening. The economic growth is flat, revenues are down, anger is growing. Yet the fools in DC look at another set of dodgy numbers and declare all is good. Some days it really sucks living through history making times.

Tags: President Obama, Unemployment

This week’s display of massive heat with no real results in the debt limit debate is just another indication that the sickness in DC will not be exorcised any time soon.

The Tea Party and Libertarian members sent by voters in 2010 to fix DC were bedazzled and befuddled by the halls of power, they were overwhelmed by the old guard and their siren song of ‘get along’. Being a life long member of the DC area, having family and friends with political connections and positions, I know how DC pollutes the best intentioned newbies. The protectors of the Political Industrial Complex spun a tale about risk and hyped ramifications if the default came about, when in reality nothing more than hard decisions – long delayed – would have to be faced. DC would have had to prioritize its spending and show self control in order to fix the problem – that was worst we faced in we did not raise the debt ceiling.

Instead the DC elites kicked this problem down the road again. They pretended they did something when, in actuality, they did NOTHING!

Next year we will run a deficit of $1.5 trillion dollars. The Debt Ceiling comprise required to cover this additional debt contained only $22 billion in cuts. That represents a 1.46% cut in the deficit – which is nothing. It is round off error in the estimate of next year’s deficit. We added another $1.5 trillion debt for nothing in return.

And that stupid 12 person commission is another example of nothing wrapped up in a big, fat, pretend bow. All it does is gag the 2010 messengers voted in last year to stop this madness. We still face tax increases, massive additional debt and runaway spending. Nothing changed within DC – just another round of fantasy PR spouted out the back end of this dysfunctional city.

While DC elites may think they were able to bound and gag the Tea Party movement with this facade, they actually probably just made the movement that much larger, that much more determined and that much more capable of throwing more bums out in 2012. The frustration that comes from another round of epic fail in DC is just going to create more backlash against DC out in the rest of the country. Those crazy Tea Party terrorist on Main Street learned a bitter lesson this week. They need to completely overrun DC before they will have the power to fix it, before it consumes America as we know it.

Epic failures like we saw this week have consequences. DC’s credibility is completely gone now. No one will ever believe anyone in DC – because we now have proof positive words mean nothing. Tangible results are all that matter.

The morons in DC are still not getting it. We have been given a choice – real cuts Tuesday or fantasy cuts 10 years in the future, after trillion more in generational debt. An epic fail.

The ridiculous plan proposed this weekend has a series of flaws. First and foremost, there are only about $900 million in cuts over ten years while we blow $1.5 trillion a year in runaway spending. All these fools could muster is 10% cuts on deficits, which means 90% of the deficit is still there driving us into bankruptcy.

Second, this pathetic commission is against the US Constitution. The HOUSE has to debate and pass spending bills. The SENATE has to debate and pass spending bills. This idiotic commission of 12 congress-critters to do what no one has been able to do in 40 years is naive. But it also gags the Tea Party and Libertarian freshmen sent to DC to fix the problem. It is a coup d’etat violating our representative government. It is the end of America.

So we either have these pretend future cuts (which don’t even hit until 2013) while we immediately raise the borrowing and dig a deeper hole for our children.

OR ….

We kill this silliness and force DC to live within its means this week. Pretend cuts in ten years or real cuts now? The choice is obvious.

Furthermore, the crap from the GOP elites is nauseating. Lindsey Graham admitted we could go into debt another $4-7 trillion dollars with this deal, but what we got was a new debate topic? Is he serious>

Pullleeaase. I ain’t paying those morons in DC $4-7 trillion more in debt to have the right to challenge their out of control spending.

I can get focus on the debate on spending this week – by hitting the debt limit and forcing all those hard decisions now that everyone wants to kick down the street until Thanksgiving. Fuggedaboudit. No more delaying tactics, no more fantasy promises 10 years from now.

Kill the bill, hit the debt ceiling and when the fat cats on Wall Street are screaming ‘uncle’ we make a deal on more rational – but immediate – cuts. If not now – never …

I noted on Friday that the Tea Party and GOP stalwarts in the House were not only winning the debate in DC, everyone outside the DC bubble (akin to Get Smart’s Cone Of Silence above) knew that the debt limit forcing function now hanging over the DC elites has never been, nor will ever will be, a more powerful incentive to reign in government growth, waste and incompetence. I wrote:

The point the DC insiders are missing is this: the current round of BS is just another round of kick it down the road! All these promises of future cuts, commissions, triggers and amendments mean nothing if they are simply going to be echoes of what we see today (and have seen for decades).

…

Boehner, Reid, Obama and all the talking heads better get something straight right now. We The People are not fooling around and we are not stupid. If you cannot get some real cuts passed now, then it will not happen later. Knowing this, we might as well let the Debt Ceiling Limit be the Sword of Damacles over the heads of DC, starting now. What those inside the DC bubble completely miss is that everyone outside the beltway watching this knows there is more pressure on them now than any future trigger or amendment or commission can leverage. And they are still failing.

If the Political Industrial Complex wants to avoid a truly serious consequence to business-as-usual, stop screwing around with vacuous plans and mythical future actions.

Now that some form of the grand compromise is emerging, we see another ‘epic fail’ in the making:

The formation of a special Congressional committee to recommend further deficit reduction of up to $1.6 trillion (whatever it takes to add up to the total of the debt ceiling increase). This deficit reduction could take the form of spending cuts, tax increases or both.

This special committee is the stupidest part of all the lame compromises coming out of DC. It does two things. It leaves the decisions to old-time, long-in-the-tooth insiders who long ago lost their connection to Main Street America. It also mutes and sidelines all those small-government House freshman who were voted in last year. They will have little to no voice, even though they are the new messengers from a frustrated and fed up electorate.

As I said, if not now with default hanging over their heads then when? This delaying game is just business-as-usual. Make the cuts NOW. Don’t wait, don’t play games, don’t waste millions on BS media propaganda.

And note there still could be tax increases. This is just another surrender to the far left to give them more time to try and sell their failed policies. The GOP should be ashamed of itself.

But there is more bad news in this DC disaster:

A debt ceiling increase of up to $2.1 to $2.4 trillion (depending on the size of the spending cuts agreed to in the final deal).

They have now agreed to spending cuts of roughly $1.2 trillion over 10 years.

We are running deficits of $1.4 trillion a year, and all they can do is cut this down by less than 10%? This is why this is such a lame solution, it does not reign in spending. We raise the ceiling by $2.4 trillion for promises of magical cuts ten years out. Do these fools in DC think we are that stupid here outside the beltway?

This is just another waste of time, another round of promised future better behavior, while nothing fundamentally changes. Look at these stupid promises from a completely dysfunctional Congress:

The special committee must make recommendations by late November (before Congress’ Thanksgiving recess).

Congress is required to produce an annual budget and spending bills. It has not done so in 3 years! Who is dumb enough to believe this time Congress will do its duty when it has failed on 3 years of budgets and a debt limit correction? These fools are only capable of missing deadlines and responsibilities, not meeting them.

Even more stupidity:

If Congress does not approve those cuts by December 23, automatic across-the-board cuts go into effect, including cuts to Defense and Medicare. This “trigger” is designed to force action on the deficit reduction committee’s recommendations by making the alternative painful to both Democrats and Republicans.

Right now there is supposed to be painful consequences if Dems and Reps don’t act – and they are still not acting! The ultimate stupid promise from serial promise breakers. America is watching and what we see if a bunch of clowns acting like spoiled children, incompetent to the extreme.

If not now, never. So it might as well be now. Instead of delaying the pain any longer, we might as well take our medicine now. Vote ‘no’ on any compromise that requires future promises and limits the voices of newly elected representatives. Both are a clear sign of DC bumbling – again.

Update: Ed Morrissey asks if the DC Elites can sell this bag of crap – I seriously hope not. Ed Morrissey thinks there is a pot of gold in this stinker:

However, the added McConnell wrinkle is interesting — and potentially a big win for Republicans. Essentially, Republicans get to claim credit for the cuts while laying blame for the debt increases on Obama. If they “disapprove,” Obama will veto the disapproval and end up owning all of the political baggage for the debt-ceiling increases. That’s a steep price to pay for Obama just to protect himself through the next election …

Basically this ‘solution’ allows the President to increase taxes and spending all he wants – all the Congress gets to do is vote “I don’t agree”. This political game is devastating to the American People. It is we who will be taxed and our generational debt increased. We pay for Obama’s liberal zealotry. And Obama has not indicated he cares one iota how bad is policies are seen by us poor rubes.

Enough damn games!!! This trickery is not worth the price. Kill this thing.

Obama and Reid are going to take the country to ‘default’ because they are mindless liberal zealots who arrogantly believe they are of the chosen few on Earth who can dictate to everyone what is ‘right’. They will take us all through hell to get their way.

Over at Powerline they are having a contest which is producing some amazing media pieces distilling down the issues we face as a nation right now. One of them – The Doorbell – encapsulates the Obama-Reid debt plan perfectly:

This is the path we are on, and the path Obama and Reid want us to accelerate upon. This is why there is a People’s Insurgency in the House. And this is why there will be no agreed to debt ceiling resolution until the political pain on the Democrats is so severe they give up their arrogant and ignorant plans. The battle is for the future of our children. The stakes are more than high enough to face this impasse with steadfast resolve and force the Dems into capitulation.

This is no longer about compromise. It is all about winning – as is the case when it comes down to survival.

Update: Boehner says it all today, as he calls on Obama-Reid to stop posturing.

At moments like this, the arrogance of Washington is most evident not in its actions, but in its inaction.

In the face of a debt explosion that threatens the future of our country, the Senate has not passed a budget in more than 800 days. The House passed a historic one in April.

In the face of a government shutdown this past spring, the Senate produced no solution and initiated no bill. The House did.

And to date, faced with the possibility of a national default that could destabilize our already shaky economy, the Senate has sent the House nothing, while the new majority in the House has acted twice.

Sadly for all of us, Obama and Reid are so arrogant they will never heed the calls for sanity until the pressure raises well above the current levels. Hang on, the ride will be getting very bumpy from here on out.

Update: Perspective on our current national debt

Major Update: So the house passed the final tweaked version of the Boehner bill with 2 votes to spare. I am good with the bill on many fronts. It is a small debt ceiling increase (~$900M) with equal cuts in spending. No more debt ceiling increases can be automatically implemented without passage of a balanced budget amendment (this is fake window dressing in my opinion). Bottom line, everyone is coming back in a few months to enjoy a real forcing function on spending. And by then the polls will be clear as Obama’s numbers continue to tank (he is now 40-50% on Gallup’s approval under ‘adults’) and the Dems will either get a clue or continue to crash and burn.

But here is the deal – no further. If Reid and the Senate gut this thing, the close vote is a warning their bill will crash and burn in the house. I still say we need to call Obama’s bluff and watch as the world still turns come Wednesday AM. And then those crying “Wolf!” will finally appreciate the power of the parable. – end update.

As the so-called debt crisis looms the bubble surrounding the DC Political Industrial Complex is as thick as Get Smart’s Cone of Silence. No Main Street logic or common sense can penetrate that shield of ‘business-as-usual’. And because of that, the Political Industrial Complex is just not hearing what America hears as this so-called debt crisis (‘so-called’ because we have plenty of money for mandatory spending and servicing our debt payments) plays out.

The DC insiders cry “the government can’t borrow any more money after Tuesday” and we say “Amen!”

The DC insiders cry “the cuts required by the Debt Ceiling Limit will be draconian” and we wonder “But won’t the Balanced Budget Amendment and other triggers coming “later” be just as drastic?”

DC insiders cry “How can anyone oppose another empty ‘business-as-usual’ compromise and hurt our party’s election prospects” and we mutter in frustration “What the hell do you think the last few elections have been about? No more business-as-usual!!!“

I heard none other than Laura Ingraham get all condescending because the Tea Party, Small-Government, Nor-More-Games House members did not accept the latest DC two step crap and vote lock step with the DC Insiders! You can tell who butters her bread every day.

The point the DC insiders are missing is this: the current round of BS is just another round of kick it down the road! All these promises of future cuts, commissions, triggers and amendments mean nothing if they are simply going to be echoes of what we see today (and have seen for decades).

If not now, then can it really ever happen?

After a historic 2010 vote and a clear message from We The People that DC had crossed numerous lines you would think the clowns in Congress and the White House would get the message. But no. Instead they name call those standing up for what Main Street wants – a change in course with REAL results.

Boehner, Reid, Obama and all the talking heads better get something straight right now. We The People are not fooling around and we are not stupid. If you cannot get some real cuts passed now, then it will not happen later. Knowing this, we might as well let the Debt Ceiling Limit be the Sword of Damacles over the heads of DC, starting now. What those inside the DC bubble completely miss is that everyone outside the beltway watching this knows there is more pressure on them now than any future trigger or amendment or commission can leverage. And they are still failing.

If the Political Industrial Complex wants to avoid a truly serious consequence to business-as-usual, stop screwing around with vacuous plans and mythical future actions.

Reid better understand his party will be completely and utterly decimated in the Senate in the next two election cycles if he does not get out of the way.

And Obama better understand he better not play games or his lame duck year will also feature serious investigations into criminal malfeasance. He better pay the right bills in the right order – or else.

This is NOT a game. And the people in DC better wake up. The only thing that can avoid the serious consequences is a serious set of cuts along with a short term raise in the ceiling. Yes, you all will be here again in a few months with that same Debt Ceiling Sword hanging over your collective heads. If that is what it takes, then that is what it takes.

Go to default and see what happens. Businesses will never darken your door again, and neither will supporters. Listen to the House – they are here at this time with a message from the American people. And this time there will be no face saving way out. You have two painful choices – choose wisely. Begin with YOUR sacrifices, not ours.

As expected, the global warming debate is now over with data coming in from the last decade which completely destroys the ‘science’ of global warming predictions:

NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.

…

The new NASA Terra satellite data are consistent with long-term NOAA and NASA data indicating atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing in the manner predicted by alarmist computer models. The Terra satellite data also support data collected by NASA’s ERBS satellite showing far more longwave radiation (and thus, heat) escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than alarmist computer models had predicted. Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than alarmist computer models have predicted.

This is not a surprise to me, since the ‘math’ behind the alarmists’ BS has been poor and amateurish (no error budget, no real math or scientific conclusions). Moreover, the lack of predicted warming has been a major clue the alarmists screwed up. Also, the need to go to exaggerated and unscientific claims was a clue the alarmists theories were failing to be reflected in reality. Recently all the cries of doom were from models pretending to be reality, why the measurements where heading in a different direction.

The irony here is the alarmists demanded more sensors on orbit to prove their point. But what those satellite clearly found was the alarmists were dead wrong. There is no escaping the results here. The data proves the models wrong. The atmosphere has been emitting the energy and not trapping it as predicted. No surprise, since a minor gas like CO2 cannot overcome the effects of the major elements of the atmosphere, which in turn cannot overcome the major influences of the oceans, which in turn cannot overcome the energy emitted by the Sun. We are talking many orders of magnitude in each jump from a marginal gas, to atmosphere itself, to massive oceans, to a nuclear furnace thousands of times larger than our planet.

Common sense and a scientific background would have made this obvious. The rantings of a has-been VP are no match for the forces of nature.

If I were in the US House of Representative I would do two things. I would suspend the EPA from any CO2 regulations and delegate NASA to do the science EPA is incapable of doing. And for the alarmists?

Go home and try next time to get it right. BTW, this is probably also enough hard data to shutdown the IPCC as well.

Update: More at Hot Air by Ed Morrissey

The 14th Amendment to the US Constitution says in part:

Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

Section 5. The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

Only moronic Democrats would miss the fact the Constitution clearly defines these responsibilities to the Congress and not the President. But apparently moronic Democrats exist in large numbers:

Assistant Minority Leader Rep. James Clyburn, R-S.C., said today that if a long-term deal is not struck by Aug. 2, President Obama should sign an executive order raising the debt ceiling without Congressional approval. He said this action would be justified because of a section in the 14th Amendment that states that “the validity of the public debt … shall not be questioned.”

This is the path to dictatorship. Why doesn’t the President just pass his own budget while he is screwing with the constitution and separation of powers. This is why we need to clean house in DC. One could easily call this a treasonous act.

Look at the future of Obamacare America – and be very, very afraid:

Hip replacements, cataract surgery and tonsil removal are among operations now being rationed in a bid to save the NHS money.

Two-thirds of health trusts in England are rationing treatments for “non-urgent” conditions as part of the drive to reduce costs in the NHS by £20bn over the next four years. One in three primary-care trusts (PCTs) has expanded the list of procedures it will restrict funding to in the past 12 months.

Yeah, who needs a functional hip??? For that matter, who needs old and unproductive people.

Major Update: If Boehner’s bill is a short term hike in the ceiling of less than $1 trillion, and comes with equal cuts, then I say vote for passage. I have said all along small real steps are preferred over grand visions of fiction and foolery. I am all for revisiting this every 6 months until 2012 elections. So if that is the bill being voted – pass it and grab our fruits of victory. – end update

The above picture [click to enlarge] was sent to us in one of those broadcast emails you get every day, yet is one of those iconic images that could live forever. It is especially relevant right now. Today the GOP in The House have to make a stand for the kind of nation all our forefathers and foremothers fought and died for. This week America either survives its bought with our decades battle with socialistic cancer, or it goes terminal.

I don’t think Congress or DC gets it yet. I don’t want to lose all the progress made to date on framing the debate on the out of control debt and out of control government, but the plans now up in the House and Senate are just too mealy-mouthed and too impotent.

Major Garret notes 6 similarities between the Boehner and Reid plans, none of which impress.

1. Nearly identical domestic discretionary spending targets for fiscal 2012 and fiscal 2013:

Which means no real cuts until the 2012 election. This is completely unacceptable.

6. Committee: Both proposals would create a 12-member congressional committee to study future deficit reduction.

And this means the Tea Party reps sent to Congress will have no say – also completely unacceptable. The other 4 provisions are meaningless.

So, the Political Industrial Complex and the power brokers could not come up with any real cuts and want to silence the libertarian forces sent to DC to get government back into its box.

Well then I guess some short term chaos is the only answer. Democrats caused major financial chaos when they screwed with mortgage lending rules, and then added to the chaos when they went on a mindless and useless spending spree. So their complaints of fiscal sanity are a huge, ironic and pathetic joke. Chiding from them and their media groupies is easily ignored.

But John Boehner has lost his credibility. I like the man, but he should have understood the people want action and they definitely did not want their voices muted by another CYA committee (which everyone ignores). Yesterday I asked how could we save the fruits of our victory- and the answer today is we have no fruits to salvage.

We either default and send the elites a clear message we are done with business as usual, or we continue business as usual and destroy the futures of our children. I guess all elites have chosen the painful way through this – but better pain for them and us than hurting our children further.

Don’t pass Boehner’s surrender bill.

Update: CBO confirms, Reid and Boehner don’t cut a damn thing before 2012. And the Dems so their way or the highway. Then we go the highway.

Update: A good and rationale explanation as to why we cannot accept the crap currently ‘on the table’.