Feb 03 2012
All you need to know about the latest unemployment numbers is here. It is the same dodgy data I have pointed to for almost a year (see here, here, here and here for example, note sometimes I forgot to update the month label on the charts, but the data is up to the last month).
I will provide an update later today after my day job waves stop overwhelming me.
Feb 02 2012
Romney handily won FL, and lost a lot of the Tea Party/Libertarians in the process. Good luck to the GOP this cycle, they either win big over Obama or else resurrect his presidency from the ashes of failure.
If all is well Obama’s poll numbers will sink back to being around 9+% underwater, the GOP edge over the Dems in the generic congressional polls will rebound to +9% and money will flow in to the campaign war chests.
If Romney’s coronation is a net negative, then the Obama’s poll numbers will go slightly positive, the Dems will be equal or lead the GOP in the congressional ballot, the coffers will not fill, and conservative media will see one of their worst years ever.
Now we sit back and wait and see. The theory and conditions are out there.
Jan 30 2012
Major Update: Looks like PPP also detected a late Gingrich Surge:
Meanwhile, a Public Policy Polling survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, has Mr. Gingrich with a manageable-looking 7 points deficit. And he was down just 4 points in interviews conducted on Sunday alone, according to a cross-tabulation provided to FiveThirtyEight.
Well, well, well. I saw one poll claiming Romney is winning Evangelicals and the Tea Party. Sounds fishy to me. I would say tomorrow is going to be very surprising – end update.
The other day I noted that primary polls this year were not to be trusted, especially in Florida since the turnout modes used by pollsters has little prayer of being right given this cycle is like none other – so there is no historic basis to any turnout model. The factors I listed that made this year so unique in Florida primary history:
First off, we still have the 2010 insurgent voter out there. This can be seen in the fact that the current GOP voters in Florida are not the same ones from 4 years ago:
Republicans have narrowed the Democrats’ registration edge in Florida since November 2008, when Barack Obama carried the state. And with the Jan. 31 primary still nearly two weeks away, more than 446,000 Florida Republicans have requested absentee ballots — far exceeding the 307,744 absentee requests for the 2008 GOP primary.
Figures released by the Division of Elections today show Florida has 11.2 million voters, with 40.5 percent registered as Democrats and about 36.2 percent as Republicans. The gap of 4.3 percentage points between Democratic and Republican registrations compares to a 5.8-point gap that favored Democrats heading into the 2008 presidential election.
Assuming the number of voters has not changed in Florida (still 11.2 million), the number of new GOP voters is euqal to the change in the gap between registered GOP and Democrat voters. This change is 1.5% or 168,000 new GOP voters, out of a total number 4, 054,400. This represents 4% of the total GOP voters.
4% is a large number when candidates are even 8% apart. A 4% shift moves a blow-out to a tie.
Another factor I noted was how Florida is actually in the kingmaker position this cycle, something they are never really in since they were historically one of the many Super Tuesday contests. This new pivotal position in the GOP selection process is going to really change the turnout models:
Florida moved their primary date up again this cycle (cutting their delegates from 99 to 50, with no super delegates) to move off of one of the Super Tuesdays. One thing is true, if voters don’t feel their vote counts, they don’t take the time to vote. Florida has never been in this position, where their vote will make a huge difference in who takes on Obama. So voters are going to come out in historic numbers (like they did in SC).
Just to be clear, this prediction has already come true in the early, absentee voting. This is a record voter turnout year already:
Early voting began statewide nine days ago, and according to figures released Monday afternoon by the Florida Department of State, which runs the division of elections, 293,760 people have already cast ballots.
But wait, there’s more. According to the state, more than 531,000 people have requested and were sent absentee ballots, and 338,753 have been returned and received by Florida officials.
Add it all together and more than 632,000 votes have already been cast before primary day.
The story goes on to claim this will help Romney because he has the better GOTV organization. But if his GOTV is activating 2010 insurgent voters, he is turning out his own opposition. Romney is now the establishment candidate after his brutal campaigning.
But something else may be in play right now, and that is Team Romney’s over the top negative campaign against the Tea Party insurgents. In the 2010 GOP landslide, a whopping 41% of the voters were Tea Parry supporters.
Exit poll data indicate that 41 percent of those voting in House races Tuesday said they support the Tea Party. Thirty-one percent of voters said they oppose the Tea Party. And a quarter of voters take no position on the Tea Party one way or the other.
I was about to concede the state to Romney, but I was hesitant to understand why polls moved so quickly. There is no policy reason for the move. Yes, there was a lot of Romney mud-slinging, but that tends to smear both candidates in the mud pit.
One thing I noticed in 2010 and in 2011/20012 was that America is still enraged and fed up with the status quo and the party/political establishment. This anger and frustration resulted in these voters tuning out politics until action could be taken. This showed up in SC in spades, as the polls picked up the shift to Newt in the last week. I think these voters are not engaging until the last minute.
BTW, SC is accustomed to being a pivotal and early primary state. While they had a record turnout, the turnout models would hold up fairly well there since the SC role was not unusual.
A late poll coming out today lends credence to the possibility that Mitt Romney could be heading for a Dewey Moment:
The Sunday results of 646 likely GOP voters are as follows:
- Romney 36 percent
- Gingrich 31 percent
- Santorum 12 percent
- Paul 12 percent
- Other/Undecided 9 percent
“The race will be tighter than expected,” Matt Towery, chief pollster of InsiderAdvantage told Newsmax.
As is noted in the accompanying story, Insider advantage was the first to detect the SC shift to Gingrich.
My rose-colored theory is that the insurgent voters of 2010 are still out there, but running silent and deep. They are spurning the pollsters, becoming undetectable. Also, as I noted in the previous post, even if the insurgent centrist voter is answering the poll, they could easily be thrown out of the ‘likely voter’ pool because of the simple fact Tea Party insurgents are new to the political process, many voting for the first time in a long time in 2010. And very few participating in the primary process. No previous voting in primaries gets you punted out of the ‘likely’ voter pool.
What if this key voting block is being missed by pollsters?
Does it really make sense the 2012 voter is that much different from the 2010 insurgent voter? Did the 2010 insurgent voter all of sudden decide to go milquetoast and support Romney? I see no reason for them to shift from angry backlash to pragmatic lambs. What happened in 2011 or 2012 to make them passive supporters of more of the same in DC?
I would expect if their support for Romney was real, Obama would be sinking in the polls, not rising as he is. Even Democrats are showing a come back against the GOP in the congressional ballot. Seeing the backlash against Obama and the Dems drop off over the last three weeks just as Romney is rising has me questioning if the rise is real support, or the 2010 tsunami voter has just gone silent until they hit the voting booth tomorrow.
My guess is a large turn out tomorrow helps Newt. I see nothing for the 2010 insurgents to all of a sudden become passive establishment followers. In fact, given how lame the GOP House has been since 2010, I only see rising frustration.
Which is why maybe tomorrow will not be as the polls say. The only problem with this theory is the fact that so many polls show a Romney cake walk. Hard to believe they are all wrong – unless the voters are not cooperating and indicating the truth out there.
Needless to say, tomorrow evening will set the path for this nation for the next 4 years. In terms of stopping the out of control federal government, there are few options left. Romney and Obama will fight all bold changes. They are so similar is hard to believe its worth having an election. But we shall see….
Jan 29 2012
Basic assumptions are the bane of science and scientific progress. So many times a basic, innocent conclusion is cast into concrete with minimal to no supporting evidence. The greatest scientific minds are the ones who recognized when a basic assumption is wrong and needs to be changed in order to realign science with the sum of all known facts at the time. This is how Newton, Kepler, Einstein and many others made their breakthroughs. Sadly, the inertia within the crony scientific community usually lashes out at new thinking. Which is why too many times scientific progress has to blaze through using upheaval and animosity (and sometimes oppression). Comfort with the status quo is hard to fight.
Scientists who make discoveries reassess every aspect of the assumed known science and determine where it was falling down. When you realize an aspect of a scientific theory is in violation of known facts (usually from other fields of science not so well known in the field in question), you can begin to explore where the truth could or does lie. And you discover new truths from the perch of an open mind.
From day one I have looked at the El Niño effect and decided it is impossible for this much heat to build up from solar or atmospheric heating alone. As is usual with the very, very young science of global climate, you should always consider the fact that we have long assumed the wrong cause and effect relationship (e.g., CO2 as a driver, versus results of, warmer temps). It is just as likely (and as I go through this post, becomes more likely) that El Niño is the result of something else, and the atmospheric responses in terms of weather and climate are just that – the response and not the cause. What I walk through below is a myriad of processes that preclude the theory that El Niño/El Niña are driven by atmospheric/solar heating. Which leaves really only one source for the phenomena left, which I introduce through deduction.
Jan 29 2012
Well, well, well. It seems the establishment GOP is so determined not to let the 2012 insurgent voter get a piece of their political pie they will do anything to get Romney elected. Sarah Palin – as one of the Tea Party, libertarian leaders – has not been silent on the mudslinging against Newt Gingrich from the GOP establishment:
How can he say he’s not a part of the establishment? Well, look at the players in the establishment who are fighting so hard against him. They want to crucify him because he has tapped into that average, every day American Tea Party grassroots movement that has said enough is enough of the establishment, that tries to run the show and tweak rules and laws and regulations for their own good and not for our nation’s own good. Well, when both party machines and many in the media are trying to crucify Newt Gingrich for bucking the tide and bucking the establishment that tells you something.
And I say, you know, you got to rage against the machine at this point in order to defend our republic and save what is good and secure and prosperous about our nation. We need somebody who is engaged in sudden and relentless reform and isn’t afraid to shake it up, shake up that establishment. So, if for no other reason, rage against the machine, vote for Newt. Annoy a liberal, vote Newt! Keep this vetting process going. Keep the debate going.
Make sure to go the link and listen to the entire video piece.
Now Herman Cain is coming out supporting Newt – the last insurgent candidate to be pushed out by an arrogant GOP establishment:
Former presidential hopeful Herman Cain threw his support behind Newt Gingrich Saturday night, providing the former House speaker with a late boost just days before Florida’s primary.
Cain, a tea party favorite, endorsed his fellow Georgian at a GOP fundraiser Saturday calling him “a patriot.”
“Speaker Gingrich is not afraid of bold ideas,” Cain said.
So with Sarah and Herman now aligned AGAINST the establishment Romney, we have the situation where the GOP establishment has clearly declared war against the 2010 insurgent voter and the Tea Party.
Which means they will lose elections up and down the card. They have to. Insurgent voters have no choice but to let the Democrats win until the GOP establishment wakes up, gives up or is fired.
Clearly, some think Obama is so scary that voters will do anything to avoid 4 more years. But the Tea Party insurgent voters are actually immune to government since they prefer to fend for themselves. They may determine that 4 more years of idiotic policies from the left is not much different from 4 more years of idiotic policies from the right. We have suffered through 3 decades of this crap, we can probably handle another decade if that is what it takes to start purging one the establishment from the DC Temples of Power.
When you want to shrink government, and the ones in the way of your goals are the very ones addicted to government largesse, it does not matter which side you have to destroy in order to create a fresh start and direction. Call it creative destruction – the democratic way. Mitt & GOP – your about to be Bain’d by 2012 voters.
Why would any 2010 insurgent voter be for Romney, who is a vague version of Obama? Why? Will we flock to Romeny’s cold Big Business to thwart Obama’s cold Big Government? LOL – not likely. How about we let the GOP suffer political losses until they realize they will keep losing until they listen to America? Sounds like a path out of the darkness versus more wandering in it.
Florida looks like it will be a Pyrrhic victory for Romney and the GOP – and the end of their run with moderate, Main Street, middle class voters. They went for the ‘scorch the Tea Party’ path, and the results will not be a surprise. I have watched Obama’s poll numbers get better and better as Romney and the GOP Sithe torched half their base. After this week the political climate will change. And as is typical, the pivot will come in Florida.
And it will be one of those lines that cannot be uncrossed. Romney and the GOP establishment should have remembered Reagan’s 11th commandment.
Jan 27 2012
Finally, we have real data showing a shift to Romney. Both Quinnipiac and Rasmussen show a clear trend in the data (comparing polls from the same pollsters over time – apples to apples). Prior claims of a shift, as I noted previously, were not correct – just lucky.
So it looks like Newt is losing some ground. But how much?
Impossible to say because all these polls are all based on unreliable turn out models for “Republican likely voters in Florida”. How you define that class of poll responders depends on how accurate your poll is.
And how you typically determine the voter pool for any primary election is using historical turn out data. Which will not work this year.
Right now it is safe to assume Romney could win, but I would not lay more than a dime on the line for it. Because this election is not typical of past Florida primaries on many fronts.
First off, we still have the 2010 insurgent voter out there. This can be seen in the fact that the current GOP voters in Florida are not the same ones from 4 years ago:
Republicans have narrowed the Democrats’ registration edge in Florida since November 2008, when Barack Obama carried the state. And with the Jan. 31 primary still nearly two weeks away, more than 446,000 Florida Republicans have requested absentee ballots — far exceeding the 307,744 absentee requests for the 2008 GOP primary.
Figures released by the Division of Elections today show Florida has 11.2 million voters, with 40.5 percent registered as Democrats and about 36.2 percent as Republicans. The gap of 4.3 percentage points between Democratic and Republican registrations compares to a 5.8-point gap that favored Democrats heading into the 2008 presidential election.
“The gap is closing due to the enthusiasm people have to oust Obama,” says Republican Party of Florida spokesman Brian Hughes. “People are hurting. The economy is turning around in Florida, but slowly, and they see at the national stage there’s not enough momentum and they’re ready for a change in leadership.”
This means the voter models used by pollsters are likely not accurate to what the turn out will be Tuesday. How many of these new registrants are insurgent voters who have no history of voting in Florida Primaries but took the time to register since Obama took office? My guess is this new GOP voter is likely to fail the ‘likely voter’ screens. They have no history of voting.
This is what caused many to underestimate the 2010 backlash wave. The mood of the electorate was so energized it defied all historical trends. This is the Achilles’ Heel of polls – they rely on stability in the voter pool to bring confidence to their turnout models.
The second big change for Florida is their role as kingmaker. Florida moved their primary date up again this cycle (cutting their delegates from 99 to 50, with no super delegates) to move off of one of the Super Tuesdays. One thing is true, if voters don’t feel their vote counts, they don’t take the time to vote. Florida has never been in this position, where their vote will make a huge difference in who takes on Obama. So voters are going to come out in historic numbers (like they did in SC).
This ALSO destroys turn out models. Primaries are the most volatile of elections to gauge in terms of turn out, since for Presidents seeking a 2nd term their party primary is a fate compli. This means half the historic record is inaccurate from the beginning.
Given the completely unique political environment we have today, a surge in GOP voter ranks in Florida and a primary that actually matters forget the turn out models in these polls. If their statistical Margin of Error is 3-4%, their actual margin of error due to turn out model uncertainties could range from 5-10%.
Be prepared to be surprised.
Update: Hot Air poses a question with some answers:
And with another day we get another fresh round of polling showing one of two things: either the good citizens of Florida are prone to fits of multiple personality disorder or the pollsters are just having some fun with us.
Or, the Florida race is unmeasurable by pollsters for the reasons I gave above.
Addendum: Watch for one other phenomena that might arise. The Santorum and Paul voters may realize their only hope of stopping Romney (and RomneyCare) is to get with Newt. If the vote is to stop the establishment at all costs, this could easily happen. In some polls 30+% are open to changing their minds. In SC that late deciders broke to Newt in a wave. Paul has been signalling he has not interest in the White House any more, so his supporters should shift to someone more viable given the meaning of this race.
Jan 26 2012
Yes, I deliberately mangled the Star Wars analogy. I know it is hard to detect when I deliberately do that versus my penchant for typos and dyslexic writing. My apologies – but I love strategery
Today we see another lame effort by the GOP establishment to take out Newt – by calling on the Ghost of GOP Past: Ronald Wilson Reagan.
Unmentioned by Gingrich then, or in any of the 2,414 debates during this campaign, was his 1985 criticism of President Reagan’s historic meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev as “the most dangerous summit for the West since Adolf Hitler met with (British Prime Minister) Chamberlain at Munich in 1938.”
I’m unimpressed. A young and cautious Gingrinch was schooled on politically bold moves by one of the masters of using his beliefs to guide his path. Similar to the successful behavior of George W Bush, who won his goals and the support of the people by sticking to principles, not saying one thing and doing another.
But why cry foul now because Newt did not always agree with Reagan back then? Is this piety to the image of a man of the people who rose to the Presidency going to impress anyone but the slavish Reagan Groupies (think Hannity here, who wants to be like Reagan but is not even close)?
Does the GOP establishment think Reagan was the reason they rode road to victory in 2010? Talk about your misfire.
I will say it again – this year’s key voters are the same Tea Party insurgents who swept away the old-tired guard in 2010. They hitched their cart to the small-government GOP and are taking the Republican Party by storm. They are going to change the GOP party through the age old art of democracy. Because they are going to change DC.
The other GOP establishment attack strategy has been to (1) claim Newt is too volatile, too bold and (2) Newt is impure. In fact the Reagan swipes are part of the “Newt is impure, too imperfect” gambit.
Let me take the 2nd issue first. The 2010 insurgent voters sees all of DC as dirty and conniving. No one is going to win by trying to convince these voters they are the least stained, or the others are more stained. Romney has RomneyCare, Bain Capitol and his liberal, big government dark side. Newt has no claim to fidelity and honor at home. As the WSJ noted previously, the best way to look at this field is:
As for the current GOP field, it’s like confronting a terminal diagnosis. There may be an apparent range of treatments: conventional (Romney), experimental (Gingrich), homeopathic (Paul) or prayerful (Santorum). But none will avail you in the end. Just try to exit laughing.
We are swimming in imperfections, so this impure and imperfect attack mode is a none starter.
So what will work? Well generalities won’t because the 2010 insurgent voter is not stupid nor naive. Vague and empty phrases only repel this upper middle class, successful voter (once know as the silent majority). They (or we) see things differently. We don’t want cautious or conventional (Romney). We want action. And that answers why the first kind of attack is failing.
We don’t want prayers or new age promises of instant success (Santorum and Paul). We want bold experimentation with an eye to shrink government to its minimum size (note well I did not say optimum size). Now that has some serious appeal!
I noted yesterday that I was going to explain why Romney and Bain are not the paragons of the free market so many Romney supporters want to claim. Bain is, and was, part vulture capitalism. Newt’s documentary on the wreckage left by Romney and Bain after pulling millions of dollars out of corporate carcasses is spot on in this regard. He did not do it universally, but he did do it a lot. Too much.
The defense has been “it is legal and he paid his taxes”. Well let me introduce you to a legendary business man who made is wealth legally and paid his taxes. He too was a big fan of destructive capitalism:
Yes folks, it is the fictional character Ebenezer Scrooge. The worst of the corporate raiders to be known by so many around the world. He has his real life contemporaries like robber barons and sweat shop owners. He is an example of what no business owner or manager should ever want to be associated with.
Now, if any of you Romney backers are thinking I am comparing Romney and Bain to Scrooge chill down. My only point here is you can be a legal, tax paying businessman and rightfully despised. Sadly for Romney, his actions at Bain allow a connection to this well known image of businessmen who forget or ignore the human factor when chasing profits.
In Dickens’ A Christmas Carol there was the counter example to Scrooge, the image of an admirable and loved businessman. This is embodied in the character of Mr. Fezziwig:
Fezziwig is one of the few people to whom Scrooge is thankful, for he says, “He has the power to render us happy or unhappy; to make our service light or burdensome; a pleasure or a toil…The happiness he gives, is quite as great as if it cost a fortune.” Scrooge is reminded how much he once appreciated Fezziwig. Since Fezziwig is the elder Scrooge’s opposite in many ways — in kindness, generosity, affection for his employees, relationship with family, and apparent happiness — Scrooge is thus confronted with the fact that his own choices have diverged greatly from those of someone he admires.
Now I would say, on the home front, Romney is closer to Fezziwig. But on the corporate front he is definitely tilted to the Scrooge side of the spectrum. And when we look to someone to dismantle Big Government, we are not looking for someone who takes an ax to the deal. There are still lives, careers and families to deal with.
So is there a Fezziwig in the race? Not any more. Herman Cain was playing that role (which is why he was succeeding so well). But there are Fezziwig like examples out there – and they exist in small businesses (not Big Government).
The best example I can come up with I think people could connect with is a man named Chef Robert Irvine and his uplifting show Restaurant Impossible.
I love this show because it is admirable on so many levels. Here is a successful man answering the calls of desperate small businesses (many family owned and run). Chef Irvine comes in with 2 days and $10,000 and literally saves people from ruin and despair. He does not walk away with millions. He does, however, try to save every job. He gives secrets, talents and skills he has learned away to the needy.
He teaches the people how to fish (or run a restaurant), he does not hand out fish.
This show is an example of what 2010 voters cherish and admire – and why Romney will never connect. He is not this kind of corporate re-builder. These people work their butts off to help others. And many of these people are below rock bottom. Savior versus profiteer.
Does Irvin and his folks get some financial return? Of course. But his goal is to salvage the company at all costs, not savage it for all potential profits.
2010 voters instinctively know the difference. They know Big Government is incapable of such actions (though the big government types strive to be Robin Hood, while they decide who is ‘worthy’). They know the difference between a Romney and an Irvine (or the Fezziwig verses Scrooge class).
Is Newt imperfect and radical? Yes. Is that bad? Not to a 2010 insurgent voter.
Is Newt an impure conservative? Yes. Is that bad? Not to a 2010 insurgent voter.
Is Newt pissing off the GOP establishment? Yes. Is that the primary goal of the 2010 insurgent voter?
You Betcha!
Jan 25 2012
It is really disturbing when your side loses its objectivity and shows signs of deep political denial. It makes them look just like liberals.
For example, the Romney camps are singing “Amen!” at a bunch of new polls out. Just check this out at Hot Air:
This makes three new polls showing him [Romney] either tied with Newt or back in the lead after Gingrich’s big post-South Carolina surge.
I am simply stunned at these claims as I showed in a comment on this post. The part I emphasized is mathematically wrong. Dead wrong.
Here is my comment on how ridiculous all this high-fiving really is:
Good lord folks, It is not the snapshot number but the trend [that matters]. Go to RCP and edutate [deliberate misspelling] yourself:
CNN/Time 1/13-17/12 = Romney +24
CNN/Time 1/22-24/12 = Romney +2Losing 20% points in less than 2 weeks is not a good sign. And +2 is well within the Margin of Error (MoE).
Check out PPP:
PPP 1/14-16/12 = Romney +15
PPP 1/22-23/12 = Gingrich +5Hmm, another 20% drop and outside the MoE. Are we all seeing the TREND now?
Rasmussen 1/11/12 = Romney +22
Rasmussen 1/22/12 = Gingrich +9Wow – 30% point drop….
Are you political experts really going to stand by the idea Romney is coming back? Do you mind if we all have a good laugh at your expense????
Let me add one more nail to this coffin:
Quinnipiac 1/4-8/12 = Romney +12
Quinnipiac 1/19-23/12 = Romney +2
All data points to Romney losing ground, not rebounding.
Tomorrow I will post on why Romney – even as a legitimate and successful business owner – can still not be admired by Main Street voters and small business owners. It will expose another method for denial – generalities. Sadly for all these people, ignoring the inconvenient truths will not garner a win, it simply means you miss the coming wave and the ability to take it on.
Jan 24 2012
Update: Even the WSJ is beginning to see the light:
That’s the real lesson of South Carolina’s Saturday primary, where Newt Gingrich, the Che Guevara of the right, always interested in leading a rebellion, smashed Mr. Romney, the Harvard M.B.A. interested in carefully calibrated, data-driven change. The South Carolina story—and the story going forward from here—isn’t so much Newt vs. Mitt as it is the insurgents vs. the establishment.
In fact, that has been the story of the Republican Party since the tea-party uprising began in 2009. The drama now will play out anew in the remaining Republican primary calendar.
Sort of obvious, but I am glad others are beginning to wake up and smell the frustration. BTW, the WSJ also garners the best summary of this primary election cycle:
As for the current GOP field, it’s like confronting a terminal diagnosis. There may be an apparent range of treatments: conventional (Romney), experimental (Gingrich), homeopathic (Paul) or prayerful (Santorum). But none will avail you in the end. Just try to exit laughing.
Sadly, I can’t laugh off this mess.A great opportunity ws offered up by the serial failures of Obama, Reid and Pelosi – only to squander it with The Damnable 4. – end update
No wonder Mitt Romney hesitated to disclose his income tax returns. Technically he does not work since nearly all his income is through investment profits:
Mitt Romney offered a partial snapshot of his vast personal fortune late Monday, disclosing income of $21.7 million in 2010 and $20.9 million last year — virtually all of it profits, dividends or interest from investments.
Emphasis mine. Clearly, this is not someone who represents Main Street. He is currently unemployed, but not in way that connects with Main Street. They guy is set for life and for generations to come. Must be nice. How do I get Big “FILL IN THE BLANK” out of my way so I too can reach my personal end of the rainbow?
Romney is not like Herman Cain, who worked his way from the lower middle class to the upper class. Cain is someone I can relate to and assume he understands how hard it is to break free of the legislative chains that hold entrepreneurs downs. Romney is a corporate raider who made millions the easy way – the Haarvaaard way. He bought out struggling companies, leveraged their assets with massive debt, took his profits and left ruin and destruction in his wake. I want no connection with him. I am a small business owner, not a corporate raider.
Romney is a vulture, not a creator. Vultures have their purpose in nature and economics, but they are not what someone wants in a national leader.Will he dismantle big government, or twist it to help Wall Street? Does he even understand what the average person has to deal with? Not likley.
Sacrifice? Others sacrificed for Romney to gain his riches.
Innovation? Others provided the core product and services for those rare instances when Bain turned a company around instead of using it as a vehicle to collect millions and then run (what a great ironic coincidence to have Mitt’s Bain actually be his political ‘bane’)
Olympic Savior? I guess if it were not for him none of those dedicated athletes would have been able to compete?
I hear echos of Al Gore and his infamous Internet every time Romney lays claim to Olympic success.
In this instance, Romney is the epitome of Bullying Big Business who likes to implement Big Government solutions when in office. So how is this model going to beat Big Government Obama and his Bullying Big Business connections???? This is just not computing. It definitely is not uplifting and energizing.
Romney is about as far from the Tea Party ideal candidate as you can get without being a liberal Democrat. The Tea Party is a Main Street USA (small business, not big business) phenomena. It is opposes Big Government and is barely tolerant of Big Business (and their hooks now embedded in our political process). The Tea Party movement also distrusts Big Labor. Big is bad – individual is good. Helping others is good, destruction and suffering is to be avoided at all costs.
The Tea Party is all about enabling the individual, protecting the small business from Big Labor, Big Government and Big Wall Street conglomerates. It is Libertarian movement.
It is not Romney. And that is why he is failing. The disconnect between the establishment candidate (Romney) and the 2010 electorate is wide and glaring. And that is why Newt is gaining. Because as far as he is from the Tea Party ideal, he is miles closer to the 2010 backlash voter than Romney ever will be.
Jan 23 2012
Good lord, Mitt really is in trouble. It is not that Newt did great job (not even close to his performance in the last SC debate), but Romney blew it. He had no spark, no intensity.
The best answers actually came from Santorum, who in my mind won the debate technically. He was spot on every question posed. The big problem with this debate, Santorum and Paul were not given equal opportunities to discuss issues. Paul suffered from his usual foreign policy blind spots, but I cannot think of a single Santorum mistake. Newt was good in a general sense but nothing stood out. Santorum had the sharpest conservative response.
Romney, came in last with his usual bland and vague responses. Romney likely fell further behind after this showing. Might have even fallen behind Santorum. I got the overall feeling pandering seems to be is modus operandi.
Newt was fairly good, but I think Santorum bested him. What will be interesting is if Santorum actually takes Romney.
NBC sucked. Their questions sucked. Their preference to Newt and Mitt sucked. NBC’s comparison of political operatives to our military on the front lines was horrific. What a horrible debate from a host sense.
On a note close to home, Mitt’s answer to the NASA/Space Coast question was moronic. NASA needs to keep leading the exploration into space until it becomes commercially viable. Mitt’s idea to build a committee of bureaucracies to explore space was moronic. The last bureaucratic approach to space was a billion dollar disaster:
The White House decided the cancel NPOESS after numerous delays and cost overruns that made the program the subject of Congressional ridicule and high-level government investigations.
NPOESS satellites would not have begin launching until 2014, at the earliest. The projected cost of the NPOESS program had more than doubled to $13.9 billion at the time of the Feb. 1 announcement to scrap the system.
NPOESS was replaced by another program that focused on getting instruments into space. What got me was how no one, except the news media, noted how America today cannot get its astronauts to our own Space Station thanks to Obama.
To miss this key fact is to miss the core problem right now in DC. Mitt lost Florida by not understanding what is happening on the Space Coast and how it is boarding up jobs because the Obama administration preferred a dumb train in CA over space exploration.
Romney failed again. Gringrich expanded his momentum from SC. But Santorum performed best. Look for Rick to pull support from Romney.
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