Sep 30 2008

Gotcha Katie!

McCain-Palin took on Katie Couric and put in her place. What is interesting is McCain was demonstrating to Palin how hard you can push back, which is probably the only bit of advice she really needed.

I think the liberal media has set expectations so low Palin will shine through. Remember, she represents a lot of America and speaks Mains Street, not DC Insider (two distinct languages).

I am also intrigued to see an indication that my theory about the American people disengaging may be one reason Obama is back up in the polls. When America turns its attention away from politics (e.g., the Olympics, or Labor Day Weekend) Obama’s madly driven supporters start to take over the sampling of voters. When America turns its attention back to the political race (conventions) Obama tanks.

This pattern has been pretty consistent up until the debate last Friday. But that assumed America tuned into the debate – it did not!

SOMETHING funny happened at the debates last Friday – no one watched, relatively speaking.

Some experts were suggesting Friday’s debate would draw 80 million viewers – but the reality is that, when final ratings are released today, the numbers will be closer to 55 million.

The Debate received half the viewers of the convention speeches – which may have been the point where many people made up their minds, went back to their lives and slipped off the polling radar screens. And let me be clear about how small this movement of attention as to be.

Assuming Barack has a 5% lead in the polls, a 20% drop in McCain supporters dialing into polls (they are, after all, voluntary) could mean a 10% swing in the head to head poll. The race is about a tie and half the voters go to each candidate (roughly), then 20% of McCain support translates in 10% of the total electorate between the two candidates, and that 5% lead of Obama’s is really a 5% deficit. if only 10% drift off the map that 5% lead is in reality a tie. This is why voter models and sampling are so important. Small deviations from reality cause huge deviations in the bottom line.

Is this happening?  Don’t count on it. But I find it interesting how well Obama’s numbers track with the where the attention of the public is.  Right now it is on the financial crisis – and Obama’s numbers are repeating their Olympic and Labor Day swing.

One response so far

One Response to “Gotcha Katie!”

  1. Aitch748 says:

    Hey AJ, I’m not getting anything from this video except a couple of commercials. Two randomly picked commercials for CBS shows or sponsors are shown, and then the “Replay/Share” screen comes up. Nothing with McCain or Palin except the still frame at the end.

    (CBS copyright lawyers strike again???)

    Anybody else able to watch this?