Feb 19 2008

Live Blogging WI Primary – It’s A Dem Battle In Wisconsin! Obama/McCain

Published by at 7:31 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

7:30 PM Eastern: I am going to be ignoring the GOP race since it looks like a cake-walk for McCain today. I will be interested in seeing his margin in the vote and delegates, but that is of distant secondary interest. What I’m fascinated to see how Hillary does in WI. It seems some exit poll data is out – and is mixed (and should be ignored as all the previous primary exist polls have proven this year).

We’ll start with some early results which seem to show another Obama blow out:

Democratic officials with access to exit polls say Sen. Obama looks like he’s headed for a huge win in today’s Wisconsin primary.

The polls are so consistently wrong it is almost a given these early indicators will be shown wrong. Other data is shows more of a lean towards Clinton:

White – 88%
A[frican]-A[merican] – 8%
Latino – 4%

As well as this data:

this electorate is very white; only four in ten have a “college degree.” They’re “less affluent” than Dems in other states. The percentage of late deciders is declining: only 27% made up their minds within the last seven days.

— Very few first time voters — only 17%.
— 27% of the electorate were independent

There’s also data leaning towards Obama as well so it hard to predict right now. The exit polls could be spot on and Clinton could be in serious trouble. Results coming in 90 minutes (9:00 PM Eastern)

7:40 PM Eastern: Looks like Captain Ed and I may be right with a surprise Clinton win, per what I assume are midday exit polls:

5:53 Update– Early Exit Poll: Clinton 49 Obama 45 Hold onto your Hats! It’s gonna be a long night!
This poll doesn’t account for evening voters (professionals) who are now getting off work and heading to the polls.
Bad Economy is on Dem. Wisconsin Voters mind.

Start cooking the popcorn folks!

7:53 PM Eastern: For some interesting context before the numbers start coming out we can go to Rasmussen’s latest polling in WI, which shows how these exit poll numbers could play out:

Clinton leads by ten points among women but trails by twenty-three points among men. Clinton leads among voters over 65 while Obama has the edge among younger voters.

The exit polls show record turnout for women in the Democrat side and many more seniors – advantage would seem to go to Clinton. If it is an Obama landslide the networks will call the race before 9:00 PM Eastern by hinting they will be making a call when the polls close. If they hint there is big news but do not say they may be in a position to call the race then it is a big night for Clinton and the exit polls are garbage (again).

8:00 PM Eastern: Interesting exit poll data: Clinton supporters could more easily tolerate an Obama Nomination than Obama supporters:

Nearly 6 in 10 percent of voters who support Hillary Clinton said they would be satisfied if Barack Obama was the party’s nominee; 40 percent said they would not. But the reverse doesn’t hold true: a slim majority of Obama voters said they would not be satisfied if Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee.

Regardless of who wins the dems are on a course for a party crack up at convention time. Looks like both candidates will limp to the convention without the minimum number of delegates.

8:15 PM Eastern: I don’t think this will be an early call. Watching CNN everyone is covering both sides and not hinting at only a huge Obama win, they seem to be saying she might pull something out (and might not). And then there is this statement over at RightPundits.com:

7.50pm – 2nd and 3rd waves of data out. Remember that later waves are statistically adjusted by the poll taking companies to reflect demographics more closely. That is why early data is often wildly off. Things are still unsettled and all over the map at this hour. With that caveat, Obama is looking very good, up by as many as 10-20 points. Still very iffy and things can change. Do not bank on today’s exit polls.

What I disagree with the pundits on is a loss is the end of Hillary. That is so naive and bogus you wonder who could make such a lame comment.

8:23 PM Eastern: Just a reminder, exit polls showed a Kerry win in 2006. It was without a doubt a win…. until the votes started to get counted. And Remember the VA GOP primary were exit polls showed a huge surge for Huckabee, only to see it all disappear by nights end and 100% precincts reporting. Not sure who is winning because the polls are so skewed one way, and that is the same way the pre-election day polls showed: advantage Obama.

8:30 PM Eastern: I think I just heard CNN hint it will be a long night! So much for the Obama landslide, Advantage Clinton.

8:51 PM Eastern: I see more hints on CNN that it is more competitive in WI than the exit polls indicated. Will know for sure in a few minutes, is Clinton another come back kid?

9:00 PM Eastern: CNN is projecting McCain win – duh. CNN is not able to call the race and is now going to be looking at actual returns to see who wins Wisconsin – advantage Hillary just for spooking Obama.

9:15 PM Eastern: Networks are showing the entire McCain victory speech, which means they could be killing time because the results coming in from WI on the Dem side are not mirroring the exit poll data. Another state and another botched set of exit polls – is anyone really surprised?

9:20 PM Eastern: Fox calling the race for Obama. But the 60-40 lead in the early morning shrunk way down by afternoon (54-45). Could the WI race be ‘uncalled’? Watch the results coming in. CNN not yet making the call, interestingly.

9:22 PM Eastern: CNN calls it for Obama as well on exit polls.

9:27 PM Eastern: I have no doubt McCain won. I am curious about Obama’s win holding up and his margin. He needs a big win to say he has slain the Clinton beast. I will update this post when we get closer to final totals. Check here at CBS News for up to the minute results.

10:37 PM Eastern: Looking with the returns at 50% of the precincts reporting in it looks like a reasonable win for Obama – but not earth shattering. Right now it is 56-43 on the votes, but the delegates are 24 Obama and 17 Hillary, so a measly 7 delegate increase in a razor thin lead. One that could be easily reversed with a good showing on March 4th. The Democrat death grip on their candidates continues.

12:05 AM Eastern: Same link as above – looks like the 60-40 exit polls were spot on (58-41) in the Dem race. That 17% win is the same as McCain over Huckabee.

23 responses so far

23 Responses to “Live Blogging WI Primary – It’s A Dem Battle In Wisconsin! Obama/McCain”

  1. kathie says:

    I’m thinking AJ you are getting ahead of yourself. I sure hope you’re wrong!

  2. AJStrata says:

    Looks like I was right Kathie – sorry, I just call them as I see them.

  3. kathie says:

    Maybe not AJ.

  4. TomAnon says:

    Fox calls it for Obama. Now they are just speculating on the margin of victory

  5. kathie says:

    AJ I think Republicans are voting for Obama and will be in Texas too. That will insure a Clinton loss. Just a thought.

  6. kathie says:

    AJ I think Republicans are voting for Obama and will be in Texas too. That will insure a Clinton loss. Just a thought.

  7. Terrye says:

    I think Kathie might be right. The system is set up so that people can go in and vote whichever party they choose. Since Republicans know McCain has this thing pretty much wrapped up there is not a lot of dram on the Republican side.

  8. TomAnon says:

    Oh my the Obama victory speech. Waiting for the fainting to begin.

    Are you really ready for change! Yes we can. We are what we have been waiting for. Yes we can…. what is this 1938?

  9. AJStrata says:

    Tom – damn close to the 1930’s….

  10. kathie says:

    Oh my God, I can’t listen to this guy. Hill is just as bad. They are the utopians. I think I remember reading about their kind of utopia in the communist manifesto.

  11. Terrye says:

    I used to kind of like listening to Obama because he is a good speaker, but after awhile it gets so repetitive. yes we can…….over and over….are you ready for change?…change to what?

  12. kathie says:

    One President can do everything….fix everything that is wrong with the world…..have I missed something, like what kind of power does a President have?

  13. TomAnon says:

    and he is very, very long winded….. this is getting close to 45 minutes for a campaign speech!

  14. Klimt says:

    Looks like Hillary is collapsing, and Obama is headed for nomination. If this win is because Republicans are voting for Obama, they are making a stupid move for two reasons: The Clintons are the more competent leaders and are more moderate; and two Obama will be harder to beat.

    I’ve watched a clip of the McCain victory speech — lackluster as usual. I’m waiting the transcript of Obama’s. I don’t know how McCain is going to survive the debates against the eloquence of Obama… only if people WAKE UP and find how empty and overrated the man is… lots, and lots of talk… is that all?

  15. ama055131 says:

    a j I think what your seeing is a anti hillary vote with help from gop voters. Sorry for not using caps but this I phone is not the best for texting.

  16. redwood99 says:

    Hillary will be lucky to stay above 40% by the time the counting is done. Hillary is toast. Start thinking about how to stop the juggernaut.

  17. Terrye says:


    I think McCain did ok and remember the debates between Kerry and Bush? As far as that is concerned, the Republican primaries with Romney and McCain. The whole speaking thing will go so far, but then people kind of tune out.

    I have gotten to the place where I don’t even listen to Obama anymore. This whole election is going to take so long, I think people will stop listening.

  18. kathie says:

    Obama is winning in Washington too.

  19. kathie says:

    One more thought….if Obama wins in Texas, and I think he will…..there will be war in the Dem party. Obama is an empty suit and the Super-delegates will not let him win because they know he will lose in the end.

  20. redwood99 says:


    The super-delegates are politicians. Worse, they’re democrat polticians. THEY are the empty suits. They won’t risk a repeat of ’84 when they overrode the will of the voters and lost 49 states. The sentiment of the dem electorate is “change” and there is no way the super-delegates are that old and entrenched that they will buck that trend. Obama is a juggernaut.