Oct 29 2016

FL 10_29_16: GOP Lead In Ballots Keeps Growing

Published by at 10:35 am under 2016 Elections

The GOP continues to slowly extend its lead in Early Voting ballots in FL. Their lead has grown from 14,349 yesterday to 22,736 today:

2016 FL Early Voting_10_29

The GOP continues to hold the lead in overall ballots submitted (last row) 41-40%. While Democrats hold an edge in In-Person voting by 39-42%, the GOP is leading by 42-39% in Mail-In voting.

Just a reminder: in 2012 the Democrats submitted more Early Voting ballots than the GOP by ~129,000. That edge was needed to push Obama over the top by 74,309 votes. Hillary and the Dems are clearly falling behind the 2012 benchmark. I would not be surprised if FL falls out of reach of the Dems by next week.

4 responses so far

4 Responses to “FL 10_29_16: GOP Lead In Ballots Keeps Growing”

  1. Chikung69 says:

    Election wagering is tough. I missed the 7-1 Trump odds which looked pretty attractive. (The day I signed up, they took election bets off for a day or two) and now the odds pay 3-1 Trump to win.

    But two very interesting bets are O/U Dems EV landslide of 367.5.
    Do you know what HRC has to do to hit 367.5?? Go have fun with the EV math and tell me that isn’t a “back up the truck” bet– even at -370
    (roughly wager $60 to win $16)

    But what really caught my eye was FL +160 (Today at +148)
    This is attractive because based on the momentum and early voting activity, I would think this would be 1:1 or even minus odds.

    Just a little fun money on the event.

  2. oneal lane says:

    Before the FBI announcement I was feeling confident for Trump.
    However, this turn of events may play to her strength.

    A late election interjection of the FBI may anger part of the electorate and energize her base. Seeing her as being treated “unfairly” Perhaps part of the base that previously would not have turned out will show up.

    Additionally there is a Reuters/IPSOS poll floating around putting her well in the lead nationally in early voting. If so, it looks like Trumps hidden magic “Brexit” voters do not exist?

    Anybody have any ideas about this.


  3. AJStrata says:

    Oneal – I think Trump was trending to a win before this. I actually had hoped he would win on his own without this. Gives liberals cover to claim the election was rigged instead of facing the fact of where they stand in America

  4. oneal lane says:


    Yes it seems Trump was trending toward positive before this event. This is going to taint the election. Dems are going to cry foul……..
    I think its too late for Clinton to step down, votes have been cast. Biden would probably beat Trump?

    Any way I don’t see her stepping down. Maybe Obama will just pardon her now and it will all melt away?