Oct 27 2016

FL Early Vote 10_27_16: GOP Takes Small Lead In Ballots

Published by at 11:08 am under 2016 Elections,All General Discussions

First off, I detected an error in my tables from the last two days in the last row computing total votes to date. This happened when I added the in-person voting to the tally. Anyway, I look at the percentages more than the totals and it really did not make a difference.

So today Trump has some excellent news.

2016 FL Early Voting_10_27

The GOP ballots are coming in at a greater pace every day. The GOP leads in mail-in ballots returned (2nd row, 42-39%) and they are returning their ballots at a greater percentage of their requested ballots (4th row, 53-49%). Today the percentage of total ballots by party is statistically a tie (41% apiece – last row). So at the state level we see more “energy” on the GOP side as they continue to lead the mail-in ballot tallies.

Due to the strong mail-in returns by the GOP, they have an 11,725 ballot lead overall. They continue to catch up to the Dems in the In-Person voting.  Day 1 the Dems surged to a 9% lead for in-person ballots, yesterday that lead had been cut to 5%, and today (4th row) it is down to 4%. If the GOP continues to catch up to the Democrats, the GOP ballot lead will continue to grow – which has to be great news for Trump.

Also note that 49.4% of requested mail-in ballots have been returned (blue box). I liken this to having 49% of precincts reporting in. The % of mail-in ballots by party are beginning to stabilize and are the best reflection of the current voting in FL – IMHO. Better than any poll since these are actual party ballots. The only hesitation one would have is to review Dem strongholds to see if there are enough ballots out there to shift the statewide numbers.

This is why I continue to look at Broward and Miami-Dade counties, to see if these large democrat strongholds have any juice left to shift the statewide numbers. So let’s get to it.

2016 Broward Early Voting_10_27

If the Mail-In ballots represent the county’s general mix of Dem and GOP, then Broward is running about 55% Dem to 24% GOP (row 3, total mail-in pool). We can treat this as their mix of party voters, and as a benchmark to measure their voting performance.

So in the mail-in votes returned the GOP is actually outperforming their base numbers (26% vs 24%, 2nd and 3rd rows). So are the Dems, but by a lesser degree (56% vs 55%). The GOP is returning a higher percentage of their ballots (4th row, 41-38%).  Again, we see more energy on the GOP side for the mail-in voting.

In the In-Person voting, the Dems are actually rocking – 62% (5th row) vs. there 55% base. But this good performance is not helping the Dems at the state level, as we saw above. So while the Dems are doing a great job in Broward, it does not seem to be enough.

Now on to Miami-Dade:

2016 Miam_Dade Early Voting_10_27

Miami-Dade illustrates why Broward may not have enough juice to change the trajectory of the Florida Election. Again, if we assume the mail-in ballots reflect the overall make up of the county, then the Dems look to be about 42-43% of the voters there with the GOP around 32%. Unaffiliated make up a sizeable portion coming in around 24-27%.

BTW, Miami-Dade’s population is larger than Broward’s, so it can overwhelm the Broward performance.

The first thing to note is the mail-in ballots have hit 44% returned of the number distributed. Again we are reaching a point where the percentages between GOP and Dem will begin to lock in. Here in Miami-Dade the GOP is rocking the mail-in vote, returning 49% of their ballots to the Dems 44% (4th row). The Dems are rocking the in-person voting (so far, this is only day 3) as can be seen in the 5th row.

It would seem to me the Dems are performing above par in Miami-Dade and in Broward. So the fact they continue to lose ground at the state level indicates to me that these two counties will not turn the trajectory of the state.

At least in early voting.


3 responses so far

3 Responses to “FL Early Vote 10_27_16: GOP Takes Small Lead In Ballots”

  1. MarkN says:


    There are still 17 counties that have not as of yet reported their early voting total. The early votes will tighten when those counties report.

  2. MarkN says:

    One more thing: the total pool of vote-by-mail is increasing at a much slower rate. Yesterday it was 25K and the day before it was 40K. So the 4K Democratic advantage in the total pool should not grow by much before the election. Then it will all depend on who can get their ballots returned and the GOP has a 4% advantage here.

  3. Chikung69 says:

    I tried crunching some NC numbers and the data out there (NYTimes) makes zero sense. It’s all garbage. Trump could be doing better or less bad, or getting smashed.

    And that latest APK poll is comedy relief. HRC +14. Oh the support data! go look. It’s really a sight to behold.