Apr 28 2009
GOP Keeps Sinking – Updated
Update: Well, Michael Steele was on Hannity (the right wing is apoplectic while trying to put on a brave face) and agreed with Hannity that the best path forward was more purity. The plan is to limit the primaries to only true conservatives! These people prove why Darwin was right all along. Those who adapt will survive.
Update: Words of wisdom from Michael Barone:
I think this shows the folly, from the point of view of expanding Republican numbers in Congress, of Pat Toomey’s candidacy. His chances of winning a general election, in my judgment, were far lower than they were in 2004, when he ran against Specter and lost the primary by only a 51%-49% margin. In 2004 Pennsylvania voted for John Kerry by just a 51%-48% margin. In 2008 Pennsylvania voted for Barack Obamaby a 54%-44% margin, despite McCain’s frequent campaigning in the state. In between some 200,000 Pennsylvania voters switched their party registration from Republican to Democratic. This does not seem to have been just an opportunistic move to vote in a particular primary but the sign of a genuine switch in allegiance. And it’s not just a Pennsylvania phenomenon. Republican party identification has sagged significantly since 2004 in most parts of the nation.
Some commenters think I am being too hard on the conservatives. Sorry, but objective analysis can be brutal. As I noted below I saw this coming in 2005 if things did not turn around. The fact things have played out as I feared is a testament to my objectivity and being willing to post the hard realities.Â
Powerline notes the self destruction is welcomed by those unable to tolerate differences of opinions:
DeMint says he would rather have 30 Republicans in the Senate who really believe in principles of limited government, free markets, free people, than. . .that don’t have a set of beliefs.” Both prospects sound gruesome to me and we may be getting very close to the first of the two.
In response to DeMint and one of my commenters, everyone has principles and beliefs. There is no monopoly on these traits. The conservative movement’s superiority complex is running headlong into reality. This is America with all its diversity, which has strength and wisdom gained from that diversity. Realize that and respect it, or continue to run in the lead for the political Darwin Awards for the 21st century.
Update: Words of wisdom from Real Clear Politics.
Update: Folks, Specter is not the only Pennsylvanian to leave the GOP – not by a long shot:
Terry Madonna, a professor of political science at Franklin & Marshall College, estimates that more than 130,000 Republicans left the Pennsylvania GOP over the past 15 months.
“Many of them were moderate Republicans who have been in the party more than 20 years — in other words, Specter Republicans,†said Madonna.Â
People are making choices and moving away from the right. Specter is not who people think he is:
Tom McClusky, vice president of government affairs at the Family Research Council, a prominent conservative advocacy group, said that Specter has also earmarked hundreds of thousands of dollars for embryo adoption.Â
No one is a pure and true conservative, no one.
– end update
Well, in what has to be a clear sign to conservatives they are way too toxic for public consumption, Arlen Specter has moved to the Democrat Party. Now Pat Toomey, who was probably going to win the GOP primary, will get a big taste of voter backlash. I meant to write a post predicting Specter would pull a Lieberman if he lost the primary. Seems the GOP is so dysfunctional, close minded and basically insulting that Specter decided to go all in. I now predict Toomey will lose big time in the blue state of PA. Should be an interesting flame out.
If Senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins also get to the point they realize there is no place in the small tent conservative GOP, then the right will have sunk into complete irrelevance.
As I said many times, the purity wars raged by the far right since 2006 would only result in an impotent minority screaming in their echo chamber, unappealing to the American voter. Distilling the movement down to its radical core has done its damage. And conservatism won’t be coming back until they realize they have to share this nation and its future with everyone.
Addendum: I can understand some people think I take joy in the conservative slide into oblivion, but that is not the case. The sad fact is I saw this coming years ago, and have tried for years to stop the self destruction. Let’s take a trip down memory lane to illustrate why this ex-conservative is not happy, but not surprised at how far the right and conservatism has fallen.
Let’s begin in October 2005, when the far right went ballistic over one Harriet Miers:
My position on the Miers debacle is clear: the anti-Miers ideologues, driven by their irrational fears and wild fantasy scenarios, have become so fanatical they are killing the conservative movement dead in its tracks. Only an ideologue could claim that Bush looked weak in his selection of Miers, therefore it was OK to actually weaken him with open resistance (Rush Limbaugh)
…
I do not trust fair weather allies who give up everything when they do not get their way. I said before, here, that the fanatical right had to be careful and not go so far out on the fringe or they would lose the normal conservatives. I should have known better. Obsession blocks out everything else – especially logic.
This was when the purity wars began, and it has raged for years, whittling down the conservative coalition into an inept core. Let’s now move to November 2006:
When is the conservative movement going to get over the rejection and stop blaming everyone else. It was not Bush. It was the crude infighting, it was the rejections of compromise, it was the holier than thou attitudes. People rage against the Gang of 14 but we got all these wonderful justices and judges on the bench. It is the result that matters – or at least should matter. What is wrong with Schwarzenegger? He not conservative enough? Are we going to push him out of the party even though he has given us the first chance in a decade to make a comeback in CA? Did we purge Chafee and lose the senate in a snit of purity? Did we do the same to DeWine? Did DeWine lose because he was a member of the Gang of 14? A better question for the conservatives right now – is did he deserve to lose? I respectfully ask Republicans to answer this question.
Did DeWine deserve to lose his seat because he was a member of the Gang of 14? Was it better for the party that he lost? The answer to this question will foretell the future of the Republican party. It will not be Bush – it will be the base and how diverse the base is willing to be.
How about April 2007:
Far right (or hard right) Republicans/Conservatives have a decision to make: either purity or Power.
…
Purity or the Power to change things? We less strident conservatives (like myself who have unequivocal support for Bush II and Reagan) support the general conservative approach. But we are not signing up for any hard right turns. The immigration issue is another where the far/hard right is way out of step with the country. And as long as the far right will not compromise and look long term and accept steps towards the full promise of conservative thought then they will be going nowhere. This mess started when the far right had a fit over Harriet Miers and would not even let the women express her views. Since that moment, when the far/hard right took off into the weeds the Bush Presidency and the War started going down hill. Sensing the schism – as many of us did – the Dems went all out and gave al Qaeda hope. Hope that a Pelosi would come and save them from annihilation. And it worked.
Now June 2007, when the Amnesty Hypochondriacs sent a clear message of anger and hate to a major and growing segment of our society:
Watch many of those be Democrats – like in 2006. Democrats want to win so they will recruit a broader spectrum of candidates. The GOP wants to be right. They will be looking to purity and will belittle some of their strongest members – like Schwarzenegger and Guiliani and McCain. As they have always done. We will see a lot of Ned Lamonts on the GOP side I fear.
Got one today, didn’t we? July 2007:
The Immigration debacle is not over. The purity wars are in full bloom as the Amnesty Hypochondriacs move to make sure they will never come close to seeing real reform. In fact, some fools are calling for Sen Martinez to be defeated or recalled (which will, of course, leave Florida with TWO Democrat Senators).
…
Say adios to the GOP as a major political voice in 2008.
Sadly, nailed that one too. How about August 2008:
We on the conservative side want the liberals to be more open minded on Iraq and the war on terror, yet we cannot muster an ounce of respect for those on our side who do open their minds and discussions. The entire point of the article referenced is how the pressure on Democrats has them moving in our direction. Why risk this and more progress by denigrating the process?
What America is weary of is the inability of the parties to find reasoned compromise. What drives the GOP to the margins of history is their inability to respect good faith discussions and reasoned compromise. They have this knee-jerk annoying habit of looking down their nose at anyone who tries to solve problems. And it is why the Democrats are poised to win the elections this year despite their abysmal performance on all issues important to Americans.
Because in the end, rightly or wrongly, the Democrats are seen as respecting the average American. And given the tone of some on the right like Michael Savage, Pat Buchanan, Michelle Malkin and others it is a wonder the GOP is not in more trouble.
I can go on and on, year after year, reviewing my attempts to raise the alarm bells that the movement was being destroyed. But why? No one listened then, and they are not listening now. But things are still going as I expected – sadly.
Specter just changed the letter following his name, he didn’t or won’t change his actions. He’s been a practicing Democrat for 40+ years.
I don’t see how it upgrades the quality of the Democrat party, I can see how it at least raises the quality of people in the Republican, just him leaving does that.
Just trying to create another ‘magic bullet’.
I suspect Specter’s internals polls showed that a majority Republicans are not supportive enough for him to overcome Toomey’s challenge. Can you say, stimulus. The honorable thing for him would have been to resign and run as a Democrat. But preservation of his Senate seat is his highest priority.
The right’s purity wars did a LOT of damage to the GOP.
At the same time, to be honest, I wonder if there is any vehicle for a middle ground in America. It’s rapidly looking more like pick-your-poison until thing really split up.
Aj ranting [again] against people who maintain and stick to their principles…
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Aj… You might consider that when YOU insult folks…
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that YOUR articles badmouthing conservatives may be pretty darn divisive as well…
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I came to your site just to see if you’d get in a tizzy and you did not disappoint…
You have just lost control of your wallets/pocketbooks. Prepare to be assimilated into the Socialists states of America.
Enjoy your principles in obscurity. Yep, you are holding firm. Now the rest of us who actually want to prevent this train wreck from happening will have to negotiate a small piece of good will from the Dems. Got it yet?
Oh well. We will not be able to turn this around till 2012 when the election cycle finally brings more Democract Senators up for reelection than Republicans. In the mean time the loyal opposition just lost the ability to oppose.
AJ
Voter backlash? You have got to be kidding. I have voted in Pa. for a good many years. Most of the people I know grow weary of holding their noses and voting for Specter. Except for Philadelphia,Pittsburgh and Erie Pennsylvania is red. It will be very refreshing to possibly vote for somebody that isn’t a pseudo Democrat.
Alan from Fla.
A J are you tring to tell me that 85% of republicans in PA. are in a purity war, I don,t think so. I have family through out the state and what they are outraged at is that Sen. Specter would vote for a bill that he did not even read, this is what pissed them off and that is the reason his poll numbers can’t reach the 30% number!
His ideology has not conformed to the majority of republicans for about 20years, infact the last time my family can remember Specter acting as a republican is when he fought to get Clarence Thomas confirmed to the Supreme court.
Why do the Republican “moderates” spend so much time joining forces with the Left wing media to attack the base of the party?
AJ, you keep saying it’s the evil nut case conservatives demanding purity, but exactly what positions would you have conservatives take to be more electable? Oh, I know you’re big on immigration reform, but beyond that what? Support the bailouts? the socialist nationalization of health care? the UAW takeover of Chrysler? Abortion? (as opposed to leaving it to the states) Gay Marriage? Gun Control? Surrender abroad?
Where is the room for compromise you keep saying we lack?
Cato,
You’re doing what we call ‘wildly swinging the pendulum’ to set up idiotic choices. Immigration reform was a great chance to make progress. The far right screwed up and they need to admit it. The Gang of 14 was not evil, get over it. The DHS is not tracking them down – get a clue! The free market prescription drug benefit was a great model of government policies using (not usurping) the free markets.
I could go on and on – but the far right is convinced they are the best of the best of the best.
LOL!
2010 will be a telling year. By then we will know if Carville is correct and the Dems. will rule for 40 years because by the time that mid-term election comes around the public will not have any Reps. to blame as they are utterly powerless now and can’t do anything but rant, outside the chambers as I am sure the Dems. will shut off their mikes inside on the floor of the Senate. I suspect unemployment will continue to creep up as BOs policy’s don’t address the causes. By then BO’s agenda will be known by everyone, hopefully, and will vote in 2010 if they want cap n trade, nationalized health care, nationalized banks, nationalized automakers and nationalized control over just about everything. There will no incentive now for BO to moderate one bit and will push forward fast and furious with his plans. I don’t think America voted for this as Michael Barone states today http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/04/28/moving_towards_europe_–_but_do_americans_want_to_go_96208.html in his article. America was voting for a moderate as BO presented himself in all three debates. He talked in those debates about cutting taxes and cutting waste “line by line”. Carville states http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/carville_democrats_rule/2009/04/28/208261.html that the demographics are against the GOP and I agree to a point. Why turn away moderates when you need to grow a party. You can’t add by subtraction.
ph2ll,
But there has to be a reasonable alternative to go to when the crap hits the fan. Right now, in comparison, Obama and the Dems look more reasonable. The conservative movement needs to gulp down their crow, eat the humble pie and do their mea culpas. Until then they are hiding behind denial and no one will take them seriously.
If “moderation” is the what the american people want why is it Obama won? Is he a moderate? Why did John McCain lose? Isnt he a moderate? AJ, I think your great and usually correct with regard to Int’l
affairs. Unfortunately, you have been tragically wrong with regards to politics. Look at your predictions in 2006 and 2008.
AJ, correct. Maybe my reply doesn’t state it in such a succinct way but I assumed that is where the moderation from moderates come in. What the GOP needs are new faces. No more Newt Gingrich. Start locally with recruiting returning veterans as they are young fresh faces and mostly conservative. The GOP needs to provide alternative bold out of the box thinking. For example: be a party of freedom and stop ruining lives on a meaningless drug war. Most people today view Reps. as old curmudgeons on matters like this. Freedom means allowing people to make their choices in life and that means the choice to ruin it too with drugs. Immigration would have been a better deal under a Rep. administration than a Dem. one. But the loudmouths are too short sighted. Are we really going to up root millions of children, whom some don’t even speak Spanish, because their parents got here “illegally” many, many years ago. We need long term thinkers in this party that can adapt with the times while holding onto principles that unite the GOP like low taxes, freedom, and a strong national defense.
I think there is a basic problem where people think Republican = conservative. I consider myself has having values that overlap with “conservatives” on many issues but on many issues, my values do not at all overlap with “conservatives”. But I do consider myself “Republican” and it is mostly because of role of government issues, not cultural/moral issues.
I was in favor of the Senate compromise immigration bill, for example. I believe that the House Republicans killing of that compromise is what lead to their being swept wholesale from Congress. I strongly support the Republican positions on the war on terror, defense, and private enterprise.
I will probably continue to vote for Republican candidates because I see them as “less dangerous” than Democrat candidates but just because one party “sucks less” isn’t really a good reason to vote for it.
But there is a new political party that has caught my eye and I am following them closely. Their values and mine seem to be in considerable alignment.
mikedido58,
If I am so wrong, how is it I predicted where the GOP would end up??? As I said, I did not want it to end here (I have hundreds of posts supporting the GOP and ranting against the purity wars) – but what I want is irrelevant.
I want to live to be 200 – data shows it will not happen.
Is Obama a moderate? Compared to who – Michael Savage, Sean Hannity, Malkin?
Hell yes! WHy did McCain lose? He was tainted with the conservative hot heads. The choice between a moderate sounding Obama and a moderate McCain tied to hot heads is pretty simple in most people’s minds (not mine of course).
AJ, your protestations that Conservatives wanted to uproot and separate illegal immigrant families and “round them up,” was and is a strawman. I have many Conservative friends and we all agreed that what you and others accused us of wanting was stupid and fantastic. All we wanted was the borders to be protected prior to legalizing the illegals already here. The rest is BS.
“WHy did McCain lose? He was tainted with the conservative hot heads.”
I disagree with that statement. “Conservatives” bashed McCain all along, and apparently stayed home on election day and delivered Obama to the White House.
McCain lost because he didn’t run a strong campaign based on what he was FOR. His campaign consisted of little more than standing on the sidelines nit-picking at what the Democrats wanted to do. His campaign was one of criticism of the other party rather than one of vision and leadership of exactly what he would do.
That is the entire problem with the Republicans right now. They aren’t offering a clear path of how they would lead America out of this mess. They simply sit, for the most part, and complain about the Democrats. And the few times that they DO put forth some differentiating position, it is some cultural/social issue that shouldn’t even be in the national debate in the first place.
AJ, we’ll never agree on the politics. However I love your posts on climate change, war on terror,
etc.
One last thing, Im sure we can agree that our father’s are/were the smartest guys we ever met. My father years ago told me not to get worked up over donkeys and elephants because in the end they very much have the same goals. Self preservation leading the list! To that end, I believe Mr. Spector has proved
my dad correct.