Apr 09 2009
Amnesty Hypochondriacs (And GOP) Get Their Just Rewards
As expected (and predicted here) the same comprehensive immigration reform package pushed by President George Bush twice (2006 and 2007) will be pushed by President Obama later this year:
In broad outlines, officials said, the Obama administration favors legislation that would bring illegal immigrants into the legal system by recognizing that they violated the law, and imposing fines and other penalties to fit the offense. The legislation would seek to prevent future illegal immigration by strengthening border enforcement and cracking down on employers who hire illegal immigrants, while creating a national system for verifying the legal immigration status of new workers.
Hopefully the great work outlined in the 2007 bill, such as one-strike-you’re-out, can be retained. But as I predicted would happen, this is the end result of the scorched-Earth disaster the far right inflicted on the GOP Congress in 2006 and President Bush in 2007, sowing the seeds of a huge migration of culturally conservative Hispanics from the GOP column into the Democrat column.
Some of my 2006 Predictions. First this on from June 15th, 2006:
David Broder points out the path the Republican hard line is on with their ‘make illegal workers felons’ nonsense. He reminds us of the last time the Rightwing went obsessive and equated people who are trying to make a living and feed-house-raise a family to rapists, murderes and thieves. They took the largest state in the country and turned it from Reagan Red to Moonbat Blue nearly over night.
…
The immigration problem is worse now, and more of a drain than before – but the hardline solutions will only make it much, much worse. The amount of money it will take to round up and prosecute all the workers is staggering. The draining of our security forces to focus on workers and not terrorists will expose us, and the political fall out will be fierce.
The far right is playing with the one issue that can totally reverse all their accomplishments in one fell swoop.  … Never a party to stop while they are behind, it seems we could see a similar effect this year. It will be sad to see. We will lose the tax cuts, the drive to protect this nation with dilligence and perseverence, we will see the funding of fetus farms for stem cells, we will see abortion on demand in our school clinics…
Nailed that one, sadly. Here is another one from June 15th, 2006:
This confirms the 80-20% problem the hardliners face. Making illegal immigration a felony with deportation the punishment is opposed by 80% of the country. So, are we going to let this problem fester because the 20% cannot get all they want? That’s up to the 20%. What they need to understand is they may be standing by themselves next fall when the conservative coalition fractures over their intractability.
The coalition did fracture and the GOP lost Congress later that year. Fast forward, and here are my comments from June 6th 2007:
It looks like the Immigration Hypochondriacs might just make permanent the current amnesty program of useless laws and inflexible idealogues which has allowed the situation to be created in the first place. Most people do not understand the stakes. Those that do, don’t care. If the Immigration bill fails to pass, that will end the conservative revolution. It will have officially run its course.
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Oh, but the self destruction brought on by the immigration hypochondriacs does not end there. Not only do they keep all that they ranted and raged against for years in place, they totally neuter the only national GOP force left in the country: Bush. There will be no new tax cut legislation now. Way to go dysfunctional GOP! There will be no more efforts to protect and respect human life. And so on. That is the end result of this, no more conservative agenda. If Bush fails on this bill he becomes a lame duck President and nothing passes. This is the short sightedness of the far right. If they cannot get what they want – no one gets anything.
Yep, I nailed that one too. Here are some more premonitions from June 9th, 2007:
With the immigration hypochondriac spew about how un-American it is to provide a path to legal status here for illegal workers, by paying fines and back taxes and staying away from crime, they have sent a signal to the Hispanic population – both immigrant and recent citizens. A signal that is unmistakable because the rhetoric from the right is seen as condoning a second hand status to America’s recent immigrants. I don’t care what the so called intentions are of the immigration hypochondriacs, I see the results. I see legal and illegal violent immigrants left on the street (and about the excuse “oh they weren’t going to be picked up anyway” – they will under current law???). I see the largest minority voting block reacting – and moving towards the Democrats. Â
So let’s recap on how the heros of America fixed things up here. They left all these criminals on the street, they called Bush a traitor, and they chased the largest growing block of voters to the Democrat side. Not to mention losing a lot of conservative independents who will not jump off the cliff with them. And I get the feeling these folks are just getting started!
This one from September of 2007th was in the midst of the Dems eating crow over The Surge success as Iraq started turning around:
But the GOP, by letting hotter heads control the topic, have not and will not be able to take advantage of the Democrats mistakes because they have made their own mistakes and in a critical area that is pivotal to winning elections.
…
These kinds of numbers portend an even bigger bloodbath for the GOP than they saw in 2006. One just needs to look at the polls leading up to the 2006 election to see the writing on the wall. The GOP is not gaining support because they are seen as more as dangerous or wrong for this country than the Dems. Otherwise they would be seeing a benefit from the Dems debacle. Michael Gerson notes in WaPo where the shift has come, and it comes from two groups reacting to the same issue. The shift is from moderate conservatives (which means people like me) and the hispanic community – which can move 5-10% of the vote away from the GOP in a flash
And it was a bloodbath. So now President Obama and the Democrats will likely pass the same general bill President Bush and those nasty moderates attempted to pass twice. And they will get the political boost the GOP should have gotten if its ‘principles’ weren’t so far out in the fringes.
Not only will the Hypochondriacs lose on this issue, they will have destroyed the conservative movement and all its gains since Reagan. That is political FUBAR in anyone’s book. Folks can find all my posts over the years on this matter here.
Addendum: I meant to note some other harsh realities, some good and some bad. The good news is the Amnesty Hypochondriacs are going to experience their full impotency. There never has been a ground swell of resistance to the general elements of the comprehensive immigration bills of 2006 and 2007. They cannot threaten the minority with further irrelevance. America is not against law abiding immigrants, especially those here for many years and integrated into their communities
The bad news is the moderates who wanted reasonable controls are also not at the table. America wants something done with the violent and criminal elements (not the misdemeanor violations of working without proper papers). Without the ‘moderate’ conservative influence we may get a solution that is too lenient on these hard core criminals. The Dems have the margins to reject anything the GOP proposes right. Baby and bath water have now been tossed out, and we have what we have.
It seems that Bush was more capable of looking into the future then many of the reactionaries in his party. Republicans were less then happy with, “No child left behind”, “Medicare drug benefit”, Social Security Reform”, and “Immigration Reform”, all things that needed to be contemplated…….. I say better by Republican’s then Democrat’s. This one is too bad!
It’s a shame that in this issue you are so misguided and wrong.
The AMERICAN public does NOT want amnesty or double standard treatment for illegal aliens.
This is a FATAL mistake for Obama if e lushed this.
With millions out of work he wants to give those jobs to illegals by making them legal to work???
More evidentce Obama is in WAY over his head and heading for a major fall.
Sorry….
Should read…
Thisis a FATAL mistake for Obama if he pushes this.
Cepan,
I am not misguided about anything on this issue. What I predicted came true over and over and over again. Don’t confuse my analysis of the situation with my support of it.
It is what it is. You’re kidding yourself if you think Obama will pay a political price. He will never get the far right, who are the only ones who are in the Amnesty Hypochondriac fringe.
And moderates like me aren’t going to skewer him for a plan that mirrors the ones we supported under Bush.
Analysis can be brutal.
It is no longer what one wants, but what is possible. One thing is for sure, there are fewer illegals here today then 2 years ago. That may help. The timing is crummy, but eventually something needs to be done.
The notion here is that Republicans should just pretty much bow and sway to the left’s winds. If we continue to do this, we may win a few more elections, possibly, but in the end we’re just moving where the left wants us to.
Republicans can give away the store to any group demanding it. But somehow they still never get any credit for it. Even if Bush had gotten his immigration bill, the other side would have found some effective means of taking full credit. All the while alienating your get-out-the-vote base, and selling out your core beliefs regarding rule of law and national integrity. You are left without even the moral authority to try again.
I think a much healthier long-term approach is to simply be smarter and more articulate on these issues. You don’t have to LET yourself be painted as a nativist or racist simply because you believe only in LEGAL immigration. You have a common sense position shared by a large majority of the population. But you can’t let a small minority of ambitious activists on the left shout you down and demonize you.
I think if McCain had NOT joined in with Bush on this, but instead had spent his time expressing his love and admiration for LEGAL immigrants — the vast majority of immigrants who also probably don’t appreciate illegal immigration, and not allowed others to define him, he may very well have won last November. He alienated or at best confused lots of people on the right, and given some of the provisions of the bill, justifiably so.
Very few on the right advocated rounding up illegals or calling them felons. What they wanted, and I think what most common sense people would want, is to simply crack down on those hiring illegals, free services for non-citizens, and crank up border enforcement. Illegal immigration would basically “wither on the vine”.
Lets concentrate on making better, more forceful common sense arguments, instead of thinking that people are going to look at a Democrat-lite position/party and be somehow inspired and impressed by it enough to vote for it, and be unswayed by the still inevitable unfair race-based attacks the left would continue to bring.
Ronald Reagan did just that in convincing the country to move away from too much government, a huge basic issue. Surely we can find someone who can follow that example on some of these smaller ones.
In other words, nominate better, more confident candidates, and above all, don’t shut up!!
This is one debate I am not looking forward to having again. I honestly think that if the government would control the border the other issues would be so much easier to resolve. I think that is where the real anger is.
Right now the debate may shape up differently because a ton of illegal aliens have already left the country due to a crackdown at the local/state level. Also, an economy with high unemployment by citizens may make it difficult to legalize those who came here illegally at this particular time; or, may cause resentments that come in a different flavor.
All the polls I have seen show the majority want border security first. However, I have not seen any recent polls lately other than one of Latino’s who were polled on why they supported Obama. The immigration issue was at the bottom of the list — it was all about the economy.
But, there could be a change in approach by many Republicans this time to form the debate in a different way. And, I just read an article about Mitt Romney (who has softened his approach to the issue this time):
GOP Cools Hot Button Issue
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/04/09/gop_cools_on_a_hot_button_issue/
This poll doesn’t indicate this will be a calm debate this time around either:
73% Say Cops Should Check Immigration Status During Traffic Stops
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Seventy-three percent (73%) of U.S. voters believe that a police officer should automatically check to see if someone is in this country legally when the officer pulls that person over for a traffic violation. Only 21% disagree, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters also say that if law enforcement officers know of places where immigrants gather to find work, they should sometimes conduct surprise raids to identify and deport illegal immigrants. Twenty-four percent (24%) oppose surprise raids.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics2/73_say_cops_should_check_immigration_status_during_traffic_stops
Once again, the amnesty hypochondriacs latch on to a losing strategy, hoping your opponent fails. You had a chance to make some meaningfull reforms now you get nothing, in fact worse than nothing, you will not even get a seat at the table.
Watch out, the left is in control. The only way they can stay there and keep there pyramid scheme going is unlimited, unrestricted immigration. They get a broader tax base and a whole new class of Demcratic Patronage jobs.
Enjoy your obscurity yet?
Yes, this is an unfortunate debate because it gets passions going and some on both sides end up crossing the line. I used to be against “amnesty” before I actually started reading and paying real attention to the issue. I was in a comment thread discussion yesterday about this topic. I suggested that conservatives might get further with their arguments if they focused on the law rather than on specifics of nationality. If you have a good immigration policy, I argued, it doesn’t matter where someone comes from. Talking about nationality will ultimately get people off the actual topic. Well, that went over like a lead balloon. I was accused of being PC and one of those “well meaning” Republicans who just didn’t get it. Then, just to prove my point, commentors came along to type disparaging things about entire generations of people. Then it started getting into the ills of LEGAL immigrants. I guess nobody there reads about entrepreneurship and how immigrants are more likely to start small businesses. It made me a bit ashamed to be a Republican.
Jason,
I hear ya! That is why I stay and independent. As long as these people have a voice on the right I will keep the whole bunch at arms length.
Amnesty or no amnesty, it’s all temporary fixes. But take it easy, there’s a new way of looking at things.
The age-old pesky U.S.-Mexico border problem has taxed the resources of both countries, led to long lists of injustices, and appears to be heading only for worse troubles in the future. Guess what? The border problem can never be solved. Why? Because the border IS the problem! It’s time for a paradigm change.
Never fear, a satisfying, comprehensive solution is within reach: the Megamerge Dissolution Solution. Simply dissolve the border along with the failed Mexican government, and megamerge the two countries under U.S. law, with mass free 2-way migration eventually equalizing the development and opportunities permanently, with justice and without racism.
To see how, Google “Megamerge Dissolution Solution” or click
http://tlwinslow.weebly.com/megamerge-the-dissolution-solution.html