Nov 01 2008

Obama Wilting In PA

Published by at 8:33 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

The polls in PA running up to the final day are nothing short of stunning. The most leftward poll out there – the Morning Call which doesn’t do any party ID weighting in its samples – has seen Obama’s leads shaved severely from somewhere around 15% to 8% (no one is keeping a history of this daily tracking poll I can find). And at RCP there are now two polls out showing a measly 4% Obama lead and one with a 5% lead (RCP is not putting in their average):

  1. Rasmussen
  2. NBC/Mason-Dixon
  3. Strategic Vision (R)
The Rasmussen poll is nearly a 50% drop in Obama’s lead in a matter of 4 days! Obama is clearly fading in PA.

12 responses so far

12 Responses to “Obama Wilting In PA”

  1. […] Obama fading in Pennsylvania. And that Zogby poll: McCain 1 point ahead. […]

  2. archtop says:

    Hmmm….maybe this article from the American Thinker blog was not so far off after all…

    Again, if PA goes for McCain, it’s over for Obama…

  3. MerlinOS2 says:

    I for one have given up on the polls simply since if polls were being done fairly they would all be almost identical at this late in the race.

    The simple massive variations show that reliance on the polls is a fools errand.

    Also the tactics don’t agree with the polls.

    If you believe the Fl polls for example Obama wins in a walk, but then explain why he is dragging in all the big guns to a state he supposedly has in the bag when there are more critical states hanging in the balance.

    That simply does not compute.

  4. Terrye says:

    DJ Drummond made an interesting point about state polls. He said they have the same weighting problems the national polls have, plus they are usually only done about once a month. So, if there has been a change in recent days a lot of the polls would not show it. It seems to me that the state polls also have the same wide swings we see in the national polls. It is so hard to know what is really going on.

  5. crosspatch says:

    Considering what has been happening to anyone who shows McCain support lately, my guess is that their samples are skewed by many McCain supporters not wanting to answer or saying they are “undecided” when in fact they actually have decided but don’t want to say.

    You have to assume the person calling you has your phone number. If they have your phone number you don’t know what other information about you they can acquire (such as your home address). Considering that people showing McCain signs have had their property vandalized, cars with McCain stickers being “keyed”, homes with McCain signs being photographed and the picture and address being published in the newspaper (Seattle), McCain supporters are taking a lower profile.

    Add to that the Hillary supporters who Obama has completely alienated who are otherwise supporters of the Democrat party but are going to vote McCain and probably aren’t advertising that fact to pollsters out of a sense of respect for their overall party, and I think the recipe is set for a serious eyebrow raising election result.

    Basically, I believe a disproportionate number of Obama supporters are responding to polls because people who aren’t going to vote Obama simply aren’t responding to them. We will know on Wednesday one way or the other.

  6. kathie says:

    Voter fraud, ACORN, students bussed to polls, even High School students, then college students let out of class to be bussed, dead people, nursing home people, special needs people, I can’t imagine that any poll is correct. Obama’s operation is so extensive, and corrupt, the corruption has reached an art form never seen. How can ordinary voters, regular people who would vote for McCain get enough votes to win?

  7. crosspatch says:

    kathie, the good thing is that if we can manage to get even 60% of the average regular ordinary people to the polls, it will completely overwhelm what they are doing to distort the election.

    In 2000 they claimed the Republicans stole the election but were able to turn up no evidence. In 2008 we have documented case after documented case of real fraud before the election has even taken place and to the best of my knowledge, not a single thing has been done about it. People need to go to prison over this but it isn’t going to happen. Only Republicans get prosecuted. I am afraid for this country.

    Remember: This is a country where “Scooter” Libby was convicted for NOT leaking information about Valerie Plame. He was convicted of perjury because he told a grand jury he thought he told Russert that Plame was Wilson’s wife. It turns out he never told Russert so he was convicted.

    Only Republicans are targets of prosecution. Democrat corruption always goes unchecked.

  8. kathie says:

    An aside…..I listened to the Socialist candidate for President on C-SPAN the other day. He used the exact same language as Obama re the economy. Capitalism does not work for the common good, it is unpatriotic, unfair, and selfish to leave many behind while a few have everything. Do all these thousands of voters really know what Obama’s governing principals are? Perhaps they don’t care.

  9. Redteam says:

    you mean the ‘socialist’ candidate for President isn’t Obama?
    Just saw a commercial for Obama that said if he is elected we will get rid of partisan politics!!!! wow, I guess that means the Dems will be passing some Rep sponsored legislation. That’ll be a novelty (/sarc)

  10. tarpon says:

    Murtha’s racists redneck comments hurt Obama … It’s getting clear.

  11. […] Yesterday I noted PA was starting to drift rightward with a lot of polls showing Obama’s once commanding lead cut in half. In fact Obama lost another point in the Morning Call daily poll, now down to a 7% lead, even though Morning Call has held massive Party ID edges for the democrats (they don’t readjust their samples for party ID). The steady decline in PA is great news for McCain. […]

  12. […] lot of people claim there is no last minute surge for McCain – yet we see Obama slipping in PA, VA and now Ohio – with a poll showing McCain in the lead by 2%. Those who claim not to see a surge […]

  13. […] Obama poll numbers in Pennsylvania dropping like a manhole cover from the sky. A Neocon Express Post Sphere: Related […]

  14. Kyle2008 says:

    Now that Hillary has won Pennsylvania, it will take a village to help Obama escape from the suffocating embrace of his rival. Certainly Howard Dean will be of no use steering her to the exit. It’s like Micronesia telling Russia to denuke.
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