Oct 30 2008

Huge Democrat Turn Out In Florida Turns Into Huge McCain-Palin Gains – UPDATED!

Published by at 12:00 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Update: For those interested in an expert opinion on early voting and polling drop by DJ Drummond today – end update

If early voting in Florida is any indication what will happen across this country come next Tuesday (and there is little reason to assume it will be some crazy outlier well outside the norm) then Obama and the Dems are going to be getting a lesson from the American voters. They are the lead incumbent party in a country where 90% think the country is off track. And how America feels about them and Obama is showing in some early polling of early voters:

Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early. 

“We’re thrilled at the record turnout so far,” said Democratic Party of Florida spokesman Eric Jotkoff. “It’s a clear indication that Democrats want to elect Barack Obama and Democrats up and down the ballot so that we can start creating good jobs, rebuilding our economy and getting our nation back on track.”

But party breakdowns for turnout aren’t the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain. 

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted. 

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats’ 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.

Democrats have an almost 2 to 1 advantage in numbers, yet McCain leads in the vote totals. RCP has Obama up 3.5% in Florida – totally opposite this massive wave of early voting.  According to a GMU site monitoring early polling Florida is already seeing almost 34% of the total 2004 vote for Florida – stunning. And the advantage for Dems on this site is 45.4% to 39% (including absentee). So with a really high 6.4% advantage in turnout Obama is losing by 4%. That is some massive defection numbers away from Obama. And it would seem a large turnout is not a bad thing at all for McCain-Palin, since it will swamp the Obama strengths in certain demographics.

If this is an indication of things to come, the liberals are in for a rough week. H/T Reader Archtop and Wizbang

Update: Bear with me folks because I saw this news and posted it last night on the way to bed, and this morning it is still a real enigma to me. The actual voters out early are heavily democrat (+16%), but the exit poll shows McCain +4%. Yet every national poll that has democrats weighted by, say +12%, has Obama up by about the same amount. The latest Pew poll is a great example of this, as are the Morning Call polls in PA. They would indicate this kind of Democrat turnout should be showing huge two digit lead for Obama.

I would chalk this up to bad exit polling if not for a similar pattern showing up in Nevada (H/T Reader Ordi):

With the election still a week away, nearly a quarter of the Nevada electorate has already cast ballots, according to the secretary of state.

Through the end of voting Sunday, about 300,000 people had voted early statewide, a turnout of 24.9 percent of the state’s 1.2 million active voters. 

Through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans.

Exit polling of early voters conducted by a local political consultant suggests a close presidential contest in the Silver State: Democratic nominee Barack Obama had the votes of 50 percent who had voted, while Republican nominee John McCain had 48 percent of the early vote.

Emphasis mine.  Woah – stop the presses here! Again we see Democrats coming out in huge numbers with another +16% edge, yet the race is Nevada is a statistical tie? What is up with this? And note this is with 25% of the voters having voted – which could indicate this would be a pretty solid trend. There is other data that supports the NV results (and the polling methodology seems damn strong with over 7,000 respondents), the early voting has seen key Obama groups lagging behind other demographics. By comparison RCP has Obama up 7.4% in NV.  What gives?

I have been saying the Democrat turnout may not be that big of an edge over the GOP this year, with the concern they Dems blew away the GOP in the primaries by a historic 2-1 edge. Now we see Democrats coming out massively again, but they are not voting for Obama. They can’t be. Either they are closet Republicans or something is seriously wrong with the polls and the democrat party.

Look, the tilted ‘extended’ national polls with a huge Dem edge and Obama lead cannot be right and then these early voting data ALSO be right. It is just not possible.

My current thinking is that the only folks talking to pollsters are the Obama fans, while the rest of the country is fed up with polls and everything else that has to do with the Political Industrial Complex (PIC) – from the biased media, elitist talking heads, invisible power brokers and cronies getting rich to the actual politicians. I have been wondering if the echo chamber of the PIC had become so complete and disconnected from the nation that there was a surprise wave about to hit them all square in the face.

I am not sure, but clearly one poll or the other is wrong. I should note in the original story there was another poll out more in line with the national polls (big Obama lead).  But with this same pattern in NV, I just don’t know, except the polls may be total garbage if the American Voter is boycotting them and about ready to bypass them and send a message to the PIC directly from the voting booth.

24 responses so far

24 Responses to “Huge Democrat Turn Out In Florida Turns Into Huge McCain-Palin Gains – UPDATED!”

  1. bush_is_best says:


    The republican stronghold state of Kansas:


    Straight from the most trusted source of accurate republican propaganda… this can’t be good…

  2. browngreengold says:



    That was from January.

    Epic Fail for you.


  3. bush_is_best says:

    whoops… guess news takes a while to leak out of Kansas… either way, those guys are definitely not the main stream liberal media… refreshing!


    here’s a recent one from that same, representational group…

  4. ordi says:

    There may be a trend appearing. There was a post at Red State last night saying the same thing was happening in Nevada.


  5. […] Huge Democrat Turn Out In Florida Turns Into Huge McCain-Palin Gains […]

  6. robert c verdi says:

    we shall see, just vote

  7. browngreengold says:

    You’re quoting the Westboro gang and you expect us to take you seriously?


  8. Terrye says:

    What I am wondering, is what about the Independents? I keep hearing about the Democrat vs Republican in voting, but about a quarter to a third of voters are not affiliated. So where are they in the early voting?

    I do think that Republicans tend to be more traditional in things like voting and as such they are more likely to vote on election day rather than voting early. But if they hear that the Democrats are ahead in early voting, that will only make them more likely to vote.

    I saw this from AP. It seems that some people even in media are beginning to turn on Obama. His infomercial was not well received by all.

    And Rasmussen now has McCain on a par with Obama when it comes to the economy and taxes.

  9. dave m says:

    I recommend as must read article of the day, maybe the year
    a piece over at http://americasright.com by a Constitutional Legal
    Expert named Dr. Edwin Vieira about the implications of electing
    a man who is not eligible to become President because of not being natural born.

    They are huge beyond imagination.

    Just to whet your interest, here’s my little summary of a long article:
    No not just an insult to us voters, it’s far more profound than that.

    If the fear that Obama has no eligibility to become President is true, than he is not President, period.

    As such, no law passed by Congress has authority, think about it.
    The budget has no authority.
    No welfare check is valid.
    No government purchase order is valid.
    No international trade agreement is valid.
    No new government bonds are valid.

    There would be no reason to want to buy or sell anything to the US government.
    Think about what happened to the world economy over those sub-prime
    mortgage bits of paper.
    This is world financial meltdown on steroids. And once it happens, it
    will snowball overnight.

    The consequences would be so devastating that my Brit friend says
    it simply won’t be allowed to happen. That’s just his opinion.

    Also, no commands given to the military have validity. If they
    kill someone, they are no longer protected by the laws of war, so to speak.
    They become simple murderers. They become open to prosecution
    anywhere and everywhere.

    Do you think that situation could even be stable for a month. I don’t.

    Nobody has thought this through. Obama has sealed his records.
    That won’t suffice. If the fear gets out and about that every piece of
    paper, every check sent out, every deal done by the US government
    is invalid, no mainstream media effort will be big enough to hide
    what would happen everywhere. What comes after trillion?

  10. BarbaraS says:

    Hillbuzz is talking about an Obama campaign worker who has had a change of heart. He/she put out an audio telling Obama’s strategy. They say one is for trolls to come on the righty sites and sow discord (but they have been doing that for years). Another is to skew the national polls towards Obama. I wonder if Obamaidiots working for the polling companies are able to do this. They say the number of workers on this campaign are huge. And the whole point is to discourage republicans from voting.

  11. Phil-351 says:


    It is easy to get a lot of people to work for you when you have a lot of illegally donated money. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803413_pf.html Lord only knows at this point where a bunch of that money is going. And, these are just the funds the campaign is admitting to. Imagine all the funds under the table. These cretins will stop at nothing.

  12. BarbaraS says:

    I got this from Ace’s site: Confessions of a Concerned Troll.

    sarah p Says:
    October 27, 2008 at 5:04 am
    Ok, I want to clear my conscious a little. Hopefully you could make a blog post to help some fellow clinton supporters out.

    I work for a campaign and can’t wait for this week to be over.

    I was doing it for a job. I was not a fan of any candidate but over time grew to love HRC.

    The internal campaign idea is to twist, distort, humiliate and finally dispirit you.

    We pay people and organize people to go to all the online sites and “play the part of a clinton or mccain supporter who just switched our support for obama”

    We do this to stifle your motivation and to destroy your confidence.

    We did this the whole primary and it worked.

    Sprinkle in mass vote confusion and it becomes bewildering. Most people lose patience and just give up on their support of a candidate and decide to just block out tv, news, websites, etc.

    This surprisingly has had a huge suppressing movement and vote turnout issues.

    Next, we infiltrate all the blogs and all the youtube videos and overwhelm the voting, the comments, etc. All to continue this appearance of overwhelming world support.

    People makes posts to the effect that the world has “gone mad”

    Thats the intention. To make you feel stressed and crazy and feel like the world is ending.

    We have also had quite a hand in skewing many many polls, some we couldn’t control as much as we would have liked. But many we have spoiled over. Just enough to make real clear politics look scarey to a mccain supporter. Its worked, alough the goal was to appear 13-15 points ahead.

    see, the results have been working. People tend to support a winner, go with the flow, become “sheeple”

    The polls are roughly 3-5 points in favor of Barack. Thats due to our inflation of the polls and pulling in the sheeple.

    Our donors, are the same people who finance the MSM. Their interests are tied, Barack then tends to come across as teflon. Nothing sticks. And trust, there were meetings with Fox news. The goal was to blunt them as much as possible. Watch Bill Oreilly he has become much more diplomatic and “fair and balanced” and soft. Its because he wants to retain the #1 spot on cable news and to do that he has to have access to the Obama campaign and we worked hard at stringing him a long and keeping him soft for an interview swap. It worked and now he is anticipating more access. So he is playing it still soft.

    This is why nothing sticks.

    The operation is massive, the goal is to paint a picture that is that of a winner, regardless of the results.

    There is no true inauguration draft or true grant park construction going on. There will be a party, but we are boasting beyond the truth to make it seem like the election is wrapped up.

    Our goal is to continue to make you lose your moral. We worked hard at persuasion and paying off and timing and playing the right political numbers to get key republican endorsements to make it seem even more like it was over and the world was coming to an end for you all.

    There is a huge staff of people working around the clock, watching every site, blogs, etc. We flood these sites. We have had a goal to overwhelm.

    The truth is here. I could go on and on, but you get the picture.

    I am saying this because I know HRC was better for the country, and now realize this. I was too late by the time I connected to her. To me Barack was just a cool young dude that seemed like a star. I didn’t know him or his policies, but now I understand more than I care to and I realize his interests are more for him, and the DNC and all working like puppets with dean. I always thought a president wanted the better good for the country. The end result I see is everyone dependent on the government, this means more and more people voting for the DNC. This means the future is forever altered. I don’t see this as america, so I am now supporting John Mccain.

    Sarah Palin is a huge threat, and our campaign has feared her like you can’t imagine. If it seems unfair how she has been treated, well its because she has had a team working round the clock to make her look like a fool.

    this is a big conspiracy and I am so shocked that its not realized.

    We released a little blurb the other day that the Obama campaign was already working on reelection and now putting our efforts towards 2012. This was to make it seem like it was above us to continue caring about 2008. Trust me, its a lie. David is very smart, but its a sticky ugly not very truthful kind of intelligence.

    Its not over yet, but I think the machine is working. And its a hill to climb.

    I will be quitting my post on nov 5th and my vote will be for John Mccain. Fortunately, my position has been a marketing position and I don’t feel I had any part of anything I would feel guilty for. But I look forward to getting out of this as the negativity and environment upsets me.

    I wish you all well, and goodluck.

    PS my name is not really sarah. but I am a female and I understand your plight.

    I don’t know how true this thing is but it is interesting and some of the things said here have happened.

  13. […] shake his (or her) hand: Huge Democrat Turn Out In Florida Turns Into Huge McCain-Palin Gains – UPDATED! Democrats have an almost 2 to 1 advantage in numbers, yet McCain leads in the vote totals. RCP has […]

  14. pjo says:

    I reading some comments some place and I think a lot of incumbents are in for a tough fight this year. I live in Joe Knollenberg district in Michigan, this use to be the safest Republican seat in the country. Back in 2000, the Republicans made the bold move in redistricting the House Seats which made it possible to force out one of the worst bozos that this state sent to the House namely David Bonior. To do that, they skimmed some of the Republican in Joe K’s district and put them in the adjoining districts allowing the Republicans to pick-up at one to two House Seats. Now due to some Demographic changes Joe K’s district is going blue and I am afraid we’re going to be sending another bozo to DC. I am wondering if this happening in some of the other states?

  15. ivehadit says:

    AJ, do you know if snopes.com is owned by liberals, (the Mickkelson’s)?

    I need to know as soon as possible. It’s very important. Thank you!

  16. dave m says:

    link error in mu warning about Obama and economic meltdown.

    I entered http://americasright.com

    whereas it should be


    Sorry – message remains the same.

  17. ivehadit says:

    I found out that the email about not voting a straight ticket is incorrect in my state as per the Sec. of State’s Office!

  18. Cobalt Shiva says:

    Straight from the most trusted source of accurate republican propaganda… this can’t be good…

    bush_is_best, you DO know that the extended Phelps family–i.e., the entire congregation of that wackball “church” you cited–supported Al Gore’s 1988 presidential bid, right?


  19. OLDPUPPYMAX says:

    HOWEVER, the left may well have learned its lesson from 2004. Rather than try to influnce the republican vote negatively (Bush has lost so why go and vote) maybe the exit polls have been phonied this time in such a way as to frighten democrat voters into getting off of their couches and going to the voting booth! That is, “republicans are winning…oh my God!” Nothing these people do should be surprising and one must, I think, figure that something dishonest is going on, right up front. Look for a scurilous cause or reason for anything that is reported to be happening. Sure, maybe I need some dem. tin foil. But to trust anything coming from the mouth of the democrat party or its MSM cheerleaders would be far more foolish.

  20. […] are already crowing about the huge early voter turnout in Florida: Democrats are beaming that their party is […]