Oct 21 2008

More Poll News – Updated

Published by at 11:56 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Update: Very bad news on the poll front with Gallup.  The ‘traditional’ model shows a +7% lead for Obama which means Obama is either still getting his debate bounce or the nation is accepting his ascendency. This should not dampen the opposition. We don’t know where this race will come out. Get out to vote and bring 5 like minded friends. We must go down with a fight and not a surrender. Thats for the liberals. The IBD poll illustrates there is still a chance to turn this around. – end update

Again we see polls moving up and down today.  The one that caught my eye was the Battleground Daily Tracking Poll which showed the race down to a single point statistical tie. This is one week after Obama had opened up a 13% lead, which is truly a stunning move. Is this poll an outlier? Not really. Rassmussen showed a drop from 7% to 4% around the same time period.  Each poll as a different sensitivity and reaction time. Many showed a rise in Obama support and now some level of drop off. The one I am waiting to see is the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. It showed a large shift to Obama yesterday going from +2% to +5%. I want to see if it shows a sustained bump or something more transient.

As I said before, I don’t expect to see something steady at least until the end of the week.

34 responses so far

34 Responses to “More Poll News – Updated”

  1. ivehadit says:

    These poll numbers are not necessarily telling the story.
    I have heard that there are people who are saying, when the pollsters call, that they will vote for o but in fact are voting for McCain…

  2. kathie says:

    Rassmuson called me last night, I answered the questions truthfully.

  3. Redteam says:

    I think the un-included factor are the PUMA’s, the polls show them as Democrats and weigh the votes as if they will, in fact, be voting for Dems. They will not.

  4. ordi says:


    If the polls are right then why this:

    Rendell ‘still a little nervous’ about Penn., asks Obama to return


  5. ordi says:


    If the polls are correct then why this:

    Rendell ‘still a little nervous’ about Penn., asks Obama to return

    Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate—as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton……

    Democrats generally worry that the race is significantly closer than what recent polls have suggested. According to Rendell, there is also worry among Democrats the McCain campaign has successfully raised the enthusiasm level among Republicans in the state.


  6. robert c verdi says:

    Go vote, Obama and the Dems have a lead, if they win, a stronger showing is the first step to get politicians that follow policies we prefer. By the way the race is tighter then its made out to be and I expect more people to break his way, maybe not enough to win, that remains to be seen. Anyway, just go vote!

  7. BarbaraS says:

    The election this year is very partisan.The media, Hollywood and the entertainment world are by and large in the tank for Obama. Why would anyone doubt the polling companies are any different? All these people don’t seem to care that they are destroying their reputations and alienating half their fans. They are on a mission of some kind. And when did any of these polls call accurate figures this close to an election for a republican ever? They are in the tank just like the rest of them. I pay no attention to them. They are trying to manipulate us just like the media did in the 2000 election by calling some states for Kerry even though he lost them in the final results.

    I voted today and it took an hour. There were a lot of people there but it was orderly with no problems. It was actually the easiest election I have participated in. Mainly because there was comfortable seating all along the way.

    AJ, I know you do not believe all this hullbaloo about Obama’s birth certificate but did you know there are now 3 lawsuits against him, one in Pa, one in Washington state and one in Hawaii. Phillip Berg in Pa. says he filed a motion for admission on 9/15/08 with 30 days to abswer. Neither Obama nor the DNChas answered. Instead he has gone to Hawaii ostensibly to see his grandmother. Some commenters say the judges will throw these lawsuits out and with some in our judiciary I don’t doubt it. Phillip Berg has a blog called obamacrimes.com with his findings. However the last I heard the judge in this case has not made a ruling of any kind. But the list of Obama’s supposed admissions are chilling. I wonder what the judge is waiting for. It is getting too close to the election for this kind of delay. Berg says that if Obama wins and it is discovered that he is not a natural born citizen it will cause a constitutional crisis.

  8. danking_70 says:

    “According to Rendell, there is also worry among Democrats the McCain campaign has successfully raised the enthusiasm level among Republicans in the state.”

    It’s also more than enthusiasm (thanks to Palin). It’s what the fellow said at a recent McCain rally: I’m mad! Really mad!

    Mad at the Friends of Angelo and Democrats for getting a walk in the Fannie/Freddie fiasco, the MSM coverage of Obama and going after Joe the Plumber.

    There’s a good reason why the MSM poll lower than the President. I don’t trust the polls either. Remember everyone was fired up for Kerry too.

  9. BarbaraS says:

    About the Berg information I forgot to h/t Gateway Pundit.

  10. Consilience says:

    This time in 2004 Kerry was the predicted winner. This is my first post—so, hello everyone. McCain is perfect, but Sarah can see it from where she sits!

  11. Consilience says:

    McCain “isn’t perfect”…

  12. Cepik says:

    Also consider this, there is a large degree of cooperation between the PUMA’s and conservative blogs that is beginning to unfold. If you follow any of the feminist blogs you can see that there is still a sizable rift between BO and HRC backers on them with cracks in the support of BO by the HRC supporters (the 42% that signed on). A hint: they are tiring of “falling in line”. From what I can tell, the 58% that did not support BO still haven’t and most likely won’t. I think I read that 38% (of the 58%) are actively supporting Mac/Palin.

    Something is going on, like I said there is a very strong undercurrent out there and it hasn’t been reflected in the polls. The center left, center and center right are teaming up for a new level of bipartisanship and they are way too positive to be properly reflected in the polls.

    Robert C. Verdi is correct, we need to be sure to vote and we need to be sure to talk to people. Be positive and encourage anyone (eeyores in particular) to vote. I have a feeling we are gonna pull this off! Lets roll up our sleeves and do this.

  13. ExposeFannyNFreddyNow says:

    I’ve stopped paying attention to the polls. There are too many missing pieces to this election puzzle, pieces that the media are deliberately not covering and not investigating. Even if they’re not skewing the polls directly, they’re skewing the polls via their biased reports and op eds.

    Why the whole Fanny & Freddy debacle isn’t getting traction is enough to indict the whole MSM of selling out. If the shoe were on the other foot, if it was Newt, Rush, Cheney, Dubya, or any other Republican at the heart of Fanny & Freddy, you can bet the press today would be a non-stop Congressional Slam-fest over F&F from Jon Stewart to Rosie O’Donnell.

    But it’s the Dems, and lots of them. Ergo, the official reply is, “racist”. That’s the barricade. That’s their whole platform which is really sad when you think of it as a reflection on how, and how much, those supporters really value their leader that that’s their main defense.

    Congress begins mapping financial reform

    California Home Sales Revive, But Not Without Intense Pain

    The amount of material against Obama’s is now bordering on staggering. It’s true what Reese Hopkins said in his interview with Rick Sanchez. If this was anyone else applying for any other federal position, Ayers or any one of the very real “associations” including Wright, Pfleger, Odinga, Rezko, Khalidi, Al-Mansour, ACORN, would be enough to either disqualify them or get them fired.

    It is not racist for federal offices to do such background checks and “vet” their applicants on these same credentials. Yet Americans are required in this election to overlook, even ignore, the same misgivings for a presidential candidate for no other reason than that it is now “racist” to “insinuate” any such connections.

    Ayers Audio Unearthed from Same Week Obama worked with him! (and not when Ayers was 40 and Obama was 8, this is 2002, 2005…)


    There’s a deep undertow to this election, an understated, silent, disaffected, sidelined, under-and-mis-represented, unpolled undertow that will rise up on election night. The question that’s soiling the trousers of both sides is, “Just how big is that political undertow?”

    That’s what’s scaring the piss out of the Dems.

    Despite all the polls, despite all their machinations, ultimately… they just don’t know.

    What both sides do know is that that undertow is just chock full of all those who have not been heard, who have been mercilessly muzzled, crushingly humiliated, and belligerently belittled as “racists” for having the “audacity” to question the newly prescribed gospel.

    It is full of those who have been shouted down and silenced not by sound reasoning but by sloganeering. It is full of those who dare doubt The One is anything but holy. It is full of those who don’t believe in Hollywood.

    It’s also full of those who know Joe the Plumber, work with Joe the Plumber, relate to Joe the Plumber, and those who are Joe the Plumber. They’re the ones who have been effectively “shut out” of this race and it’s they who will decide by the size of their numbers on election night whether America wins or loses.

    This is the missing number. How big do you think it is?

  14. grumpyguy says:

    Have you seen this AP poll released on Oct 22 with Obama only 1 pt ahead?