Oct 16 2008

Listen To Obi-Wan, And Watch Those Polls! – Updated!

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

2nd Major Update: Did Obama commit a fatal unforced error when he let slip his liberal/socialist plans for redistributing wealth?

This is still a center-right country, gang. Note this Gallup poll from June:

When given a choice about how government should address the numerous economic difficulties facing today’s consumer, Americans overwhelmingly—by 84% to 13%—prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth more evenly among Americans.

Emphasis mine. Obama has had to pretend to be something he is not to try and con the moderate middle he is not who he really is. It was inevitable he would slip up, especially if he thought he was unstoppable.

Major Update: OK folks, according to Gallup, it is now official – Obama is slipping in the polls. In a little over a week Obama’s +11% lead has been nearly cut in half to +6% with registered voters. But what really has me jazzed is the traditional turnout model poll shows a tie race:


Note how the pro-Obama model simply reflects registered voters, which always trend 3-5% below the final election day numbers.  The only question is whether Obama gets a boost from the debate. Even if he does get a bounce it may not be sustainable.  If he doesn’t then expect the left to go nuclear. The next week is going to be interesting. – end update

Jim Geraghty is getting a lot of good news today after the debate, especially from the master political guru he refers to Obi-Wan Kenobi (H/T Reader Frogg).  You can go there to read the sage advice, but there are other indicators that O-Bomba may be faltering as we go into the home stretch (as I predicted would happen):

The second bit of good news for McCain is comes from a source in the Midwest, plugged into various GOP operations, who told me that “key metrics” in “bellweather areas” of Ohio are showing very favorable McCain numbers and that these indicators may also signal important metrics for Pennsylvania, esp. western Pennsylvania. This source has no illusions, and is worried about other states — the same ones you and I are worried about when we look at an Electoral College map — but those two states are looking surprisingly strong for McCain, with some evidence that the same folks who were skeptical of Obama in the Democratic primary are still not on board and may not ever be on board.

If Ohio and Pennsylvania turn, so will Virginia and Florida and a lot of other states. The other interesting piece of news from Jim is this:

Another state-level GOP guy I talk to regularly says that what he is seeing in internal polling lines up with the commentary you see in this RedState post, purportedly from an Obama campaign internal pollster, indicating that they are “very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics, precisely because she appeals so strongly to the middle class, as well as women and dissatisfied republicans that stayed home in 2006.”

I say all of this because this pollster conveyed strong concern about their standing going into the homestretch. They are very concerned about winning the vote of the middle class and whole swaths of the electorate they consider the “unkowns.” In fact, and based on her conversation with this internal pollster for Obama, he’s not ahead in the polls as we’re being told. He’s at best tied.

I have been saying for weeks now that Palin would be the magic bullet, that she was pulling in crowds that rival or beat Obama’s. And I keep going back to the hard data that shows her debate was the all time most watched debate in election history (if you add in C-SPAN and/or PBS viewers). 

And I can point to other indicators as well.  The Battleground Tracking Poll shows Obama losing half his lead in the span of 3 days (from +13% down to +6%). If McCain can gain 3% a week running up to the election Obama loses. Note: State polls will lag national polls in detecting this shift, so don’t expect to see movement until next week at the earliest.

Rassmussen’s Daily Tracking Poll shows the same sagging support for Obama over the last week, going fomr +8% to +4%.

I am awaiting the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll to see if the trend is as wide spread as I think it is.

As I noted yesterday the key is turnout. All these polls assuming the right will stay home, Sarah is not a factor in energizing new voters (and she is, trust me on this one) and the Dems are immune to the anti-DC mood of the country are probably way off base. Since it is clear Americans are not tying McCain to Bush anymore – made clear in last nights debate and focus group responses – Obama may have peaked too early and come off to aloof to hold the magic. McCain-Palin are taking the anti-DC movement from him piece by piece.

We are a nation of Joe The Plumber and Sarah Palin voters, and Obama has ceded his mantle as the agent of change for these regular folks. The Reagan democrats and independents are possibly moving to becoming McCain-Palin democrats and independents.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!

41 responses so far

41 Responses to “Listen To Obi-Wan, And Watch Those Polls! – Updated!”

  1. Redteam says:

    conguy, you’re confused. The stock market did the best it ever has during the first 6 years of the Bush Admin, then we turned congress over to the Dems, boom.

    The media has been in charge of the media forever and they’ve always been Libs, nothings changed.