Oct 11 2008
Internal Polls Show Public Polls Are Wrong?
McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!
Reader Sally Vie noted this interesting post at Hillbuzz:
The polls, in our opinon, are wrong, and the internal numbers we see coming out of NC, VA, PA, OH, INÂ and FL show McCain wins in all of those states (there is no mathematical possibility for Obama to win without taking PA, OH, or FL).Â
I have been wondering why the Democrats are still screaming bloody murder (and ‘racist’, etc) when their man seems to be in the lead? When you have a comfortable lead you start to talk about the future and attempt to look like a statesman. But I have not seen Obama or the libs shift gears yet, telling me something is still worrying them.
McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!
Pollser Zogby, himself, says not to buy the “Dem hype” about the polls, and says the race is close and either candidate can win.
The best indicator to me is to look at where the candidates spend time and money. That seems to be Pennsylvania and Virginia right now. And, stranger yet, is a recent report that McCain is opening up a bunch of new offices in Iowa. Is Iowa closer than being reported?
You will know McCain’s polls are right if we see Obama or Biden campaigning there soon.
I have never felt a greater urgency to get to the polls and vote AGAINST someone as I feel in this election. Obama getting to the White House would be a disaster for this country. I feel I have a duty to my children to do what I can to try to protect their future from what this man would bring.
I don’t believe my feelings are rooted in political concerns but are more based on economics and simple math. The policies that man and people of the same political ilk have supported has caused a great financial burden to be placed on us. And I see them not unlike the fireman who sets fire to a house so that he can come to the rescue and be a hero.
Yes, they got more people into homes they couldn’t afford but did it with mechanisms like reverse amortization adjustable rate mortgages that work great when interest rates are declining over time and property is appreciating. But markets fluctuate. And the moment interest rates started going back up, these people’s mortgages adjusted upwards and their homes went into foreclosure. Foreclosed homes on the market caused a reversal in home prices causing even more of those people to be unable to find affordable mortgages when the initial terms expired because due to reverse amortization, the actual loan balance was growing over time while the market value of the home was dropping which resulted in even more foreclosures and even more depression of home values. This caused financial institutions holding sound mortgages to have to devalue them according to market prices and in some cases these mortgages were “under water” with the value of the property again being less than the loan balance owed. So what were assets suddenly became liabilities for the financial institutions.
Obama and the people who supported the use of Fannie and Freddie as vehicles for housing welfare knew or should have known that both interest rates and housing markets fluctuate. Using mechanisms that only work in a specific market condition (rapidly rising home values combined with declining interest rates) was a financial time bomb set to go off once either of those two conditions reversed.
So here they present themselves as our saviors from the disaster that they themselves created. I can not allow these people to get their hands on the reins of government any more than they already have. They have proved yet again that they are perfectly willing to destroy people’s lives for their own political gain.
Wizbang Blog studies some polls and has an interesting analytical post about the poll results:
excerpt:
Now one thing I do not buy, is the idea that Obama has 51% support. Not that he could not get that much in the vote, but if that is true it would mean that his support has risen six points in three weeks. What would cause that to happen? It’s not going to come from the democrats, he already had their support. It’s not that republicans would swing over and support Obama, the numbers tell us that and in any case, the parties are very partisan this year. And the independents have not changed in Obama’s favor, in fact he’s a point weaker with them than he was September 14. So what’s driving the bigger numbers? The only explanation is that more democrats in the poll are being counted, which means that Obama’s growth is artificial.
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/10/11/why-mccain-is-still-able-to-win.php#more
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I wonder if polling companies are factoring in an expected increase in Dem voters, and if they are getting this higher number of Dem voters from Acorn registrations???? Hmmmmmmm. Manufactured polling????????
If Obama’s not gaining Repubs, not gaining Dems, and losing Independents….how else do you explain it?
Maybe it means nothing because these campaigns might just be swinging through “battleground” regions of the country regardless of their internal polling, but both Palin and Obama were in Pennsylvania this morning. If Obama was really up by about 5 points in the popular vote nationwide a mildly blue state like Pennsylvania wouldn’t really be a concern for him.
>If Obama was really up by about 5 points in the popular vote
>nationwide a mildly blue state like Pennsylvania wouldn’t really
>be a concern for him.
Obama’s problem is that he under performed in political polling at a steady 2-3 percent in every primary outside the south in _Democratic Primaries._
Neither his campaign nor anyone else’s can guess as to what that will mean in a General election vote.
Given that the African-American vote shows up in the Democratic Primaries, and the “Disproportionatly Democratic Youth vote” historically does not show up at all on a general election day, Obama’s people have a good reason to worry.
Barack needs to be up 8-10 points before election day to actually win the election… unequal as that may seem, its most likely true… so its closer than people think, hopefully, our global society will wake up and support McCain and all that he represents… because somehow there seems to be alot of support for this obama guy, as if alot of our smart, fellow americans actually believe he will represent America in the world, as an intelligent, thoughtful leader with the ability to learn and adapt. Its almost as if a black, 47 year old, self made intellectual is more in touch with a greater portion of the population than a 72 year old military veteran… as if… ha! Sometimes I’m almost fooled into thinking he cares for people, and wants to enact policies that improve peoples lives, or save them even… what nerve! We need a senior citizen, the older the better, who understands the world runs on gasoline and problems are solved with military might, and that of course, Americans are inherently more valuable than all other ‘nationalities’… bring on the grand OLD party…again! Life is good!
I believe all the phony voter registration going on is skewing pollsters who poll according to registration ratios. So you might have 10% more Democrats but if most of the excess are dead or phony, what difference does it make.
Houston has not only 4,000 dead people on the registration roles, some have actually “voted” after they died.
More of the kind of shady criminal activity that surrounds Obama.
“Political observers believe McCain has a chance to win the state’s electoral vote from Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Palin’s visit to Central Maine and another planned for Presque Isle on Sunday were scheduled to take advantage of that possibility.” That one little electoral vote might be really big on November 4.
http://www.bangornews.com/detail/90946.html
Watch for the polls to “magically” tighten up by the last week or so of the election (maybe the weekend before). Pollsters don’t want to be way off versus the actual vote, so they will start to reveal what they actually know rather than release the garbage poll numbers we’ve seen every week. When you think about it, who would hire a Zogby or a Rassmussen if they gave their information away for free. Their clients pay big bucks for the real thing, which may be totally different than the public info.
See, now here’s another story that has me curious: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081012/ap_on_el_pr/clintons_obama
If PA is in the bag and he’s up huge, 10-15 points, then why is his campaign dispatching the Clintons to the Commonwealth? Obama is in big trouble and he knows it.
Great the Clintons are going to fan out across the battleground states! What will be McCains response since he has become the reactionary rather than the aggressor?
Will he send his good friend Joe lieberman and Lindsay graham to put people to sleep in Kansas City?
Where’s Mitt, Rudy, anybody? Can McCain force himself away from Sarahs’ crowds and side or does he have the need to show up for her crowds so he can take credit that they are all there for him? Show up with Sarah and tell the party faithfull to shut up?
Perhaps he believes this is his ultimate pander, another slap in the face to the Republicans, the party who are not his friends, a pander to the in the closet Dems who would never vote for 0Bama but not tell the pollsters that?
More massive voter fraud, this time in Pennsylvania.
We have got to get picture ID laws into place. People are registering their dogs and cats, dead relatives, sports team members and just about anything. No wonder the Democrat registration numbers are so high.
And Rasmussen is skewing their sample even more Democrat. Their sampling is now 39% Democrat, 33% Republican.
Folks, these samples don’t mean a thing because people aren’t elected by opinion polls. What matters is actually voting in the election. If a greater percentage of Republicans than Democrats vote, the pre-election polling samples don’t mean squat.
Please vote.
Gallup now 50-43, narrowing trend.
ACORN registers a seven-year old girl in Connecticut and both she and her family say she never filled out a registration form.
This is getting absolutely nuts. The Democrats are nothing but a bunch of crooked, lying, thieving, thugs. I honestly don’t know how anyone of good moral character could remain associated with them.
Drudge headlines:
GALLUP DAILY: Obama-McCain Gap Narrows…
(Likely Voters 50 % to 46 %)
ZOGBY MONDAY: OBAMA 48%, MCCAIN 44%… DEVELOPING…
RASMUSSEN MONDAY: OBAMA 50%, MCCAIN 45%… DEVELOPING…
Definately looks like the race is tightening back up.
More on the meaning of polls.
It’s a wonder why people bother with these damn things in the first place. Aside from a whole lot of money-gobbling goliaths making a whole lot of kick-ass goliath-bucks from them, they offer little more, by their own admissions, than a ouija board.
But for lack of a better barometer, we sail on probably in more of a fog than we might if they simply didn’t exist.
NYTimes: Funny Numbers: Do Polls Lie About Race?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/weekinreview/12zernike.html?pagewanted=1
The other thing this article and most articles won’t tell you about is how polls can skew their surveying to favor results. There’s a reason polls are such darlings with the marketeers. And marketeers know a thing or two about how polls can in turn …. skew the public.
And, then you have stuff like this:
Jim Geraghty rips the latest newsweek poll
http://macsmind.com/wordpress/2008/10/12/newsweak-poll-smackdown/
Im confused: So why do states like california and new york, powerhouse centers of business, commerce, culture, universities, etc… side with Obama… and why are these polls 50% obama 45% mccain… or 48% 44%… nationwide…and not the other way around? It would seem if the GOP actually had the FAR SUPERIOR candidate, as we claim, then the educated contingents, at least, would be for him by huge margins…? Especially when I read only negative reports of Obama, as if the entire law enforcement community let this guy slide right under their nose, and not throw him in jail, but rather allow him run a political career (with a questionable amount of success) and then for president? It is easy to say that we are the only smart thoughtful ones, and half the country is misguided… but we wouldn’t want them to say that about us so we’re not going to say it about them… so whats really going on? why does he garner at least half the support nationwide, and more than half in populations centers, and among college professors and intellectuals (people who really, really understand). Wouldn’t we LIKE to have this support? And why does he garner such overwhelming support overseas? Why does McCain not get this respect INSTEAD of Obama? Its so confusing? Is it possible to answer this question with out slandering people and pumping ourselves up? Can I get a straight answer with no spin?