Sep 09 2008

More State Polls Coming, Turning Blue States Purple

Are biased polls going to shift reality or hide it? We will soon find out whether the 4th estate controls the mood of the nation or is really as out of touch as the Sarah Palin selection has shown this past week (is it only a week?). Jim Geraghty has some foreshadowing of two state polls coming out tomorrow which shows solid blue states turning purple with statistical ties:

Strategic Vision will be releasing polls in Michigan and Wisconsin tomorrow. In Michigan, they find Obama ahead 45 percent to 44 percent, in a sample that breaks down to 47 percent Democrat and only 38 percent Republican.

In Wisconsin, they find Obama ahead 46 percent to 43 percent; that sample is 34 percent Democrat, 27 percent Republican.

The MOEs are 3%, which makes these both ties and throws these states into the toss-up category. The only hope the left has now is that the Palin movement will not be growing and has stalled. From what I am seeing on the ground that is a fool’s hope.

And the angry rhetoric coming from Obama against the will of the people is not going to stall anything, in fact it should accelerate it:

“The American people aren’t stupid.” That was Barack Obama on the campaign trail yesterday dismissing the attempt by John McCain’s campaign to co-opt the “change” mantle in this race. 

Obama’s suddenly harsh rhetoric was directed at Alaska Governor Sarah Palin over her sometimes different opinions on that infamous “bridge to nowhere,” but it also reflected growing suspicions that this campaign itself has undergone some sort of fundamental change. At the very least, there’s a lot of confusion over just what has happened over the past couple of weeks. 

That’s from CBS News folks. Not everyone is still drinking the Kool-Aid.

It is sort of interesting that all this angst and anger on the left is turning states purple – quite appropriate given all the sour grapes we are being bombarded with.

8 responses so far

8 Responses to “More State Polls Coming, Turning Blue States Purple”

  1. AJ,

    ALL the polling models are hosed, because they all rely on traditional polling methods.

    Pollsters have to use “hostile territory” methodology to get really accurate results because telemarkers have poisoned the traditional, el cheapo, polling methods.

    The “Hostile territory” methodology is too expensive when the news media’s budget has been cut so much. Only the Presidential campaigns or the party national committees can afford them and then not very often.

    The state by state media polls are even worse than the national ones due to smaller sample sizes.

    What Ed Morrissy said on Hot Air here applies:

    “Polls have varying value as predictive models, but they’re better at reflecting trends. No matter what anyone wants to think about cell-phone users and ObamaNation Gen-Xers, the trends all look bad for Obama this week, and the internals look especially weak.”

    At best, we see good trends for McCain in these states. We don’t really know if he can win those states because of the effects of the two party’s GOTV efforts.

  2. AJStrata says:


    Agree 100%. That is why I focus on the long term trend (which is accurate) and I see O-Bomba crashing in a lot of states. Hopefully will post on this trend in a couple of days.

    Cheers, AJStrata

  3. MerlinOS2 says:

    The empty suit with all sorts of baggage around his campaign and a road kill from being thrown under the bus that is in the double digits don’t help him at all.

    Rumors of fund raising issues won’t help him either.

    Even with all the noise of the nutroots they are only a small part of the voter base and Obama is even more left of center than the other two who lost before him.

    If Obama crashes big, the nutroots may finally shatter into a million pieces.

    Their ant war protests drew only modest numbers and then they had to do free rock concerts to draw from the crowds.

    All in all it looks like perhaps the pendulum is starting to swing.

  4. crosspatch says:

    Oh, oh … according to Drudge, Obama basically insinuated that Sarah Palin was a “pig”. Holy crap, that guy is having a serious meltdown. The wheels are falling right off the cart.

  5. kathie says:

    I found this at “Freerepublic”, does anybody know about this connection? Obama doesn’t seem to have been vetted at all.

    Barack Obama & Khalid Al-Mansour (YouTube video)
    09/09/2008 5:12:56 PM PDT · by WhistlingPastTheGraveyard · 55+ views
    YouTube ^ | 9/9/2008 | WPtG
    Barack Obama & Khalid Al-Mansour (VIDEO)

  6. crosspatch says:

    kathie, that al-mansour connection came up recently on one of the blogs I read. I cant remember which. Might be this one

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