Sep 08 2008

Undecideds Massing Towards McCain-Palin

Published by at 10:52 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Where is The Surge in McCain support coming from? Well, if you look at the latest Gallup numbers you see McCain-Plain taking all the undecideds – and then some:

When McCain was last well up on Obama (Jan 08) undecideds where 5%. When Obama was well up on McCain (prior to GOP Convention) undecideds were 10%. With McCain again hitting 50% from a previous 43% level, and Obama going from 47% to 46%, only one thing can explain the 7% McCain-Palin jump.

And that is the fact that half the undecideds (5%) moved en masse to McCain-Palin. There is no split here because 5% doesn’t explain all the 7% shift for McCain. To make that happen Obama-Biden had to lose all the undecideds that moved AND some voters once in their own camp. I do not see those folks jumping back any time soon – they moved monolithically. And Obama is in real trouble if the rest of the undecideds and more from his camp go to McCain. Then this race won’t even be close.

4 responses so far

4 Responses to “Undecideds Massing Towards McCain-Palin”

  1. MerlinOS2 says:


    If you go over to pollster and look at their chart that includes third party candidates you will see that the big hit was taken out of the hide of Nader.

    He dropped almost in half to his already dismal position.

  2. AJStrata says:

    Merlin, remember poll numbers are not individuals. The moderates are balking and moving, and the Nader numbers could simply be the far left coming home and filling up some of the vacuum left by the moderates.

    Remember the purity war dynamic. The more moderates and independents lost the more the fringes feel like coming back in.

  3. WWS says:

    The last big test to come will be the 3 presidential debates and the single VP debate. I think the forum favors McCain and Palin, even though it isn’t a true “debate” – more of joint informercial where the candidates give well-rehearsed answers to known questions.

    I’ll be watching the Obama interview tonite – I think that will be a good preview of how he performs in a question and answer format, as opposed to the set-piece standard speech format which he is most comfortable with.

    Although I am very optimistic about McCain/Palin’s chances, they both still need to nail their debate performances to seal the deal.

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