Sep 07 2008

McCain-Palin Take Crushing 10% Lead With Likely Voters

I thought the Gallup Daily Tracking Polls was bad enough this today (see here), but the weekend polling – which goes to make up the USA Today/Gallup Poll, was even larger than I expected this soon. In one short week Obama went from a 7 point lead to a 4 point deficit – well outside the margin of error:

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.

Some of the internals are just crushing. The last hope for the Democrats was the economy – but Obama has all but lost his massive lead to McCain in one week:

McCain has narrowed Obama’s wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate’s top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he’s favored by 3.

16 point swing on the last Democrat issue out there. That is horrific news for Obama and the Dems. Can it get worse for Obidenama? Oh hell yes it can – when the survey looks at likely voters Obama is the lead jumps from 3% to 10%!

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

Ten Points! Obama needed to be 10 points ahead of McCain just to make this look competitive in November. Now we know why Obama is regrouping and pulling back into battleground states. With numbers like this it will not take long for state polls to show Obama falling way behind. Maybe a week.

And what is the root cause of this? Part of it is enthusiasm, but that would not explain a 13 point swing. My guess is the media attacks on Palin has moved most moderate and independent men and women away from Obama. Just check out these two posts (here and here) from liberals regarding the media attacks on Palin. They tell much more of this story than the polls can detect right now.

If this holds the bottom will fall out of the Dems very quickly. Obama really needs a Jesus Christ like miracle about now.

10 responses so far

10 Responses to “McCain-Palin Take Crushing 10% Lead With Likely Voters”

  1. kathie says:

    I just read this. This is the change that Nancy and her gang have given us. They never said exactly what kind of change they wanted in 2006, hinted at a few things. So this is what we have gotten so far. Do we like it?

    George Bush has been in office for 7 1/2 years. During the first six years, the economy was fine except for enduring the worst terrorist attack in U.S. History. The government had to step in and help the airlines and taxpayers gave millions to survivors in the twin towers.

    It wasn’t until about a year ago that:

    1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
    2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
    3) the unemployment rate was 4.5%.
    4) the DOW JONES hit a record high–14,000 +
    5) Americans were buying new cars, taking cruises, vacations overseas, and living large!…


    1) Consumer confidence has plummeted;
    2) Gasoline is now approximately $4 a gallon;
    3) Unemployment is up to 6% (a 10% increase);
    4) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $12 TRILLION DOLLARS & prices still dropping;
    5) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.

  2. […] the right-wing blogsphere and radio talkers pee themselves with happiness because John McCain has (entirely as expected) […]

  3. Toes192 says:

    You want poll numbers. I’ll give you the only poll sample you need. ONE voter… That ONE vote [Fuanglada, my Thai wife] is incredibly excited and pumped up over Palin’s selection. I have NEVER seen her so energized.

    When Obama blinked and lost his nerve and refused Hillary, the old guy went for the jugular as a warrior will always do… and chose a pit bull with lipstick… and I think you all sense this about our Sarah… She ain’t blinking…

  4. WWS says:

    gee, I wonder when Conman or breschie or any other lib will show up and comment on this turn of events?

    heh, we all know we won’t hear a word!!!

    You know that every Obama supporter is in deep, deep, shock over this.

    Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.

    Most are still in stage 1, moving to stage 2.

  5. browngreengold says:

    I cannot speak for the rest of small-town America but I can tell you that over the last week as I have traveled around the multiple small towns in my area, there is only one subject on the lips of the people that I have come across.


    There are people talking to one another about it and the giddiness and excitement in their voices is unmistakable.

    These are ordinary folks. Not the type of people you would normally hear discussing politics out loud in public.

    Saturday morning while having breakfast with my wife I heard no less than three groups of people in casual conversations (completely separate) saying that they could not wait until Nov.

    One lady, a senior citizen, said that she was “disgusted”, “disappointed”, and “let down” by the Republican party until Sarah was named to the ticket. She said that she felt that Sarah represents the first real hope for the Republican Party and our country since Reagan. Prior to Sarah she was not planning on voting at all.

    These were just casual conversations in several of the places that I have passed through over the last week or so.

    There is a movement afoot.

    Naming Sarah was a masterful move of strategy from the old warrior.

    Obama, in his amateurish state, overcome by ego, made a critical error in failing to name Hillary. That was a stumble that he is not likely to recover from.


    The selection of Sarah Palin.

    Check mate.

  6. Neo says:

    Intrade Market Odds Obama 49.9 McCain 50.0

  7. […] it out of his … but I digress. Today’s whopping 10 point lead among likely voters in the Gallup/USA Today poll pretty much busts this BS, just like a decade of global cooling has busted the climate […]

  8. […] McCain-Palin Take Crushing 10% Lead With Likely Voters […]

  9. […] out the wealthy, while Obama will just drown everyone.  Of course that could be why there are now reports of McCain having up to a 10% lead on Obama!  Of course the answer to this is, according to an article at the Huffington […]

  10. […] the right-wing blogsphere and radio talkers pee themselves with happiness because John McCain has (entirely as expected) […]