Aug 26 2008

The Obama Poll Crash Continues

Published by at 3:51 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Looks like my prediction about Obama sliding behind McCain was off by a few days. I predicted it would happen before the Dem Convention in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll:

But what comes up must come down, as we say in physics. And what this tells me is when attention does move from the Olympics to the elections, Obama’s numbers will drop as the polls start to get a more representative sample of opinions. And falling polls going into the Democrat convention will be played to the hilt on why Obama is destined to fail this fall.

Well, it happened on day 2 of the convention – McCain is up 2 points on Obama in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (follow link for larger image):

All this erosion has occurred since the Biden selection – which was a huge disaster. Rasmussen also shows Obama losing a 3 point lead during this period.  So far I have seen nothing out of the convention which will change this dynamic and suspect, given Obama’s bizarre attempts to stem the Bill Ayers issue, there is more erosion to come.  

No crow for me it seems


16 responses so far

16 Responses to “The Obama Poll Crash Continues”

  1. DJStrata says:

    Hell yeah!! What better way to start the Dem convention than with a Republican on top!!!

    Guess its time for liberals and dems to eat crow.

  2. kathie says:

    It seems that the Democrats are out of step even with their own people. It may turn out that the Republicans realize what an amazing job President Bush did. Given what he had to work with, North Korea, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Palestine, a sinking economy, with the dot com bubble, then a trillion dollar loss after 911, the war on terror, education reform, old people eating dog food. If you think about it, few Presidents have been been dealt such a hand and have done so well. So well in fact Obama is talking about roads, more medical coverage, and more education coverage, and sending 10,000 more troops to Afghanistan. I haven’t heard a plan for those troops, maybe it will come later. I don’t believe the dems have a clue how hard it is to govern. Obama is not the one!

  3. Terrye says:

    I heard Rasmussen is showing the same kind of results. I think people are getting tired of this soap opera.

  4. Redteam says:

    Great news, almost as good as the news that gas price at Walmart dropped to 3.29 today, if just talking about drilling has accomplished that this quickly, wonder how much faster and further it’ll go down if they actually pass a bill requiring drilling.

    After the Hill move to take the nomination fails this week, I suspect the polls will continue the slide. Not real good news for the far lefties.

  5. KauaiBoy says:

    Could it be that election fatigue has finally set in (after 4 years of politicing) and the unenlightened have finally realized that BHO is more of a bore than a messiah. At least Jesus had performed a few miracles by this point in his life. There really is no substance to this guy and the self absorbed, self righteous, self loathing crowd finally sees that……see I haven’t given up on them entirely yet, I have hope for them.

    Make America strong
    Cut your own lawn.

  6. Dorf77 says:

    Pardon me but even with an engineering background the curve ain’t obvious … Use some other format (log, smaller scale, etc).

    I know the numbers are real and 1 vote let alone 1 percent at the end does the job, but your graphic needs PiZZaZ.

  7. MacGregor says:


    There is a great tendency to rewrite history here. Pres. Bush lied and did a terrible job or creating a global coalition to fight terrorists and it has taken 7 years to figure out what to do in Iraq. Don’t lose your sense of reality just because Dems are more susceptible to losing the election than first thought. Are you forgetting how many Repubs have been losing elections even in blue states?! Repubs have not demonstrated the ability to govern any more than Dems.

    FDR prosecuted a two-front war during a time of depression in less time than Bush has against two countries who had almost no real armies defending them. How is that success?

    “Dems don’t have a clue how to govern”?!!? Wow, talk about lack of perspective and reason. Dems governed fine with Clinton and if we’d kept the funding of alternative energy programs from the Carter admin. we’d be using half of the foreign oil that we are using now. I worked at a university that was doing hydrogen cell tech. and gasification of Montana oil shale in the early 1980’s until Reagan pulled the plug on the funding and sent us down the road that even Repubs like T. Boone Pickens has finally figured out was wrong. Can’t expect neo-cons like you to admit to that though.

    So as long as McCain keeps with smearing Obama rather than describing an energy policy beyond “drill here!” bumper stickers, he may get more fearful, ignorant pseudo patriots to swing the polls in the near term, but even if he wins it won’t be because he would be a better president. It will only be because he is a dirtier campaigner. Nice.

  8. MacGregor says:

    Redteam: Mix in some real supply side economic theory to your night time reading before showing your ignorance. Talking about drilling didn’t drop the price of oil! Wake up. Even the oil industry has said that when the first drill bit hits the sea bed, that it will only have a 5% affect on supply and demand.

    The drop right now is a combination of national demand reduction and the predictable drop in speculation that is a bubble that is waiting to burst.

  9. WWS says:

    It’s gallup’s graphic.

  10. lurker9876 says:

    I expect Obama’s numbers to go down more. I doubt that Hillary and Bill can do anything to help Obama get that bounce back.

    There are too many stories that indicate this.

    The Ayers / Chicago Annenburg Challenge story is starting to boil.

  11. kathie says:

    I’m going to make a prediction, I think McCain will choose Palin as his VP running mate. Choosing a woman will cinch it for him I think.

  12. MarkN says:

    Back to the blogging wars yet again. AJ, if you notice the graph Obama is between 44 and 48 and McCain is between 42 and 46. That would put the race as Obama 46 and McCain 44. The poll is a three day tracking poll so the Dem convention is not yet factored in and will not be completely factored in until August 31st. The one trend I notice is that Obama has always bounced off the 44 and 45 and gone back to 47 or 48. He has stayed between 44 and 46 since Georgia.

    It was good to see McCain hit 46. It was sad to think that 45 was his top. It is also his third straight day at or above 44. I was afraid McCain was not connecting with the electorate, which is odd because McCain is actually better at retail campaigning than Obama. What I mean is that without those teleprompters, Obama is lost but McCain can get mixed up with the people and hold his own in unscripted conversation. Also, the biggest portion of the likely voters are moderate conservatives. Although I would not describe myself as one (I would be a conservative who is moderate), the Republican Party is made up of mostly center-right people.

    The Republicans should be cleaning up this year. However, the far right and the moderate right are at each for two reasons. 1) The far right has destroyed the immigration issue. Simply put the Republicans have been historically pro-immigration. Because they are pro business and business is pro-immigration (a growing economy needs a growing work force). The Democrats have always been anti-immigration (unions hate new non-union workers). The dirty little secret from last years immigration reform is that it was killed by far right senators teaming up with traditional (center-left) liberal (pro-union) senators. 2) The moderate conservatives has destroyed the judge issue since 2005 with the Gang of 14 deal. It would have been better if the moderate conservatives would have done the deal in February 2005 instead of in May 2005 after the far right had brought the cloture elimination proposal so close to passage only to have the center-right chicken out at the last minute. It would have given the far right a greater chance to recruit the 60 votes necessary on more convservative judges during the 109th Congress.

    The Gang of 14 is McCain’s greatest failure not because the deal was bad but the timing of the deal was bad. The far right is justified to be angry over the loss of the judge issue. Which the stupid Pelosi just handed back to them with her inane comments on Meet the Press Sunday. Just like the recent Gang of 10 deal is bad not because it is a bad deal but because the timing of the deal is bad. The drilling moratorium is a law that expires on Sept 30th, unless it has the President’s signature. Even if it takes shutting the government down for lack of funds but let the law die. Then negotiate OCS drilling.

    Maybe the 46 today for McCain is a breakout number and he can get as high as 48 or 50 in the coming days or next week after the Republican convention.

  13. J.D. says:


    Bush lied, huh?

    The U.N. believed Saddam was a threat. Enough so that they passed 17 resolutions demanding that he come into compliance. Bunch of blue hat cowards living off the largesse of the USA.

    Former Pres. Clinton believed Saddam had WMD. He did what most Dems do; while he did nothing to make it come to pass he passed the feel good Iraqi Liberation Act (1998) making it the policy of the USA to remove Saddam and bring democracy to Iraq. Hillary voted to go into Iraq, and countless other Dems. Were they all lying, or were they acting on the best intelligence available?

    While we shouldered the bulk of the burden 40+ nations joined the coalition of the willing to liberate Iraq. Facts are indeed messy things…

    I had more to share, but Hillary just came out to speak, and I almost mistook her for Joan Rivers. How much botox can a face take? Wow.

  14. dhunter says:

    MacGregor, nice Dem talking points but the fact is that Bushes Global War On Terror has kept this country from attack since 9/11 and we have made friends of a Muslim nation that was formerly trying to obtain Nuclear weapons or did you miss the TONS of yellow cake uranium sold and shipped to Canada. He and the Iraqis defeated AlQeada in Iraq and exposed the AlQeada and Taliban for nothing more than blood thirsty terrorists. The same thing may well happen in Afgahnistan and Pakistan thus isolating Iran and Syria and showing those peoples the promise of Democracy. All this accomplished while being constantly undermined by the Dem party and mainstream media. FDR had no such handicap in enemies at home.
    Clinton put hundreds of thousands of acres of federal lands off limits to roads, drilling or even forestry, thus exascerbating the energy problem. Its’ due to the Clintons kicking the can down the road on terror and energy that W. had to deal with the issues the children before him left behind and I for one believe history will show he did a fine job.
    Never before in history has a political party sunken so low as to openly campaign for its countries defeat in order to secure power for itself in war time and neither has a party so neglected an issue as important and easily solved as the energy crisis. Primarily by being beholden to a group of environmetal socilaists. Yes some Dems have won largely by running to the right of their counterparts then voting with the leftisit majority. The people will not be fooled for long evidenced by the 9% approval rating for a Pelosi led congress, worst approval rating evah.
    What good is the oil shale technology when the Dem party won’t allow us to use it or drill off shore or in ANWR or onshore or build refineries or nuclear plants?

    The energy crisis can be laid directly at the feet of the environmental wacko Dem party and the people are awakening to that fact.
    Savor your fantasies while you can.

  15. breschau says:

    “Bush lied, huh?”

    Yes, he did.

  16. Soren says:

    My polling widget still shows a tie. It picks up data from several pollsters.

    Try it here: