Aug 04 2008

Lose The Middle Of The Electorate, Lose The Elections

Published by at 10:47 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

The independent (and not very ‘moderate’ by any measure) middle of the electorate is having second thought with Obama, The One. Obama has had a series of major stumbles even the fawning liberal SurrenderMedia could not cover (and most times just did not see happening).  The news media is so blindly in love with Obama that they cannot see when he stumbles, and apparently the Obama campaign is also so self-enamored it too has missed seeing the pitfalls.

The first stumble by Obama was when he (or the liberal power elites) decided The Surge was the one issue they would retain distinction with McCain over.  FISA-NSA surveillance, Obama dumped the far left in the curb over. Handguns, threw the left under the bus. In each case Obama did not even retain valiant objection in the face of the pending wave, he crumpled and supported the opposite of what his base has feverishly fought for. Even on drilling off-shore, Obama has flip-flopped on the far left.  All of these moves made him a shadow of the Bush-McCain positions in an attempt to show there is no difference between McCain and Obama, except charisma and ‘change’.  The one issue he stayed stuck on was The Surge.

And what a dumb issue to fall on your sword over, since The Surge has been enormously successful.  FISA-NSA and handguns are not so cut and dry as The Surge, so to me those would have been safer grounds to battle McCain on. But they picked The Surge and openly claimed, after a year of hard fought victory, they really did want to lose Iraq to al-Qaeda at any cost.  That was a shock to America, who understands tough battles, but not battling and dying to lose. Must be a Euro-centric concept, but it was foreign to America.

Then Obama dissed our injured troops in Germany because he could not work out how to follow the process and shut up his campaign staff and control his agenda. He let pettiness and laziness stop him from visiting those who have given so much to this country, his ineffectiveness to make is his visit happen pales in contrast to their efforts. He was shown to be unworthy of those who are now in battle.

Obama then came back to the US and made some of the dumbest, most juvenile statements I have heard in a long time.  When he claimed tire pressure and tune ups would drop the price of gasoline back to something reasonable he lost all Americans with more than two IQ points to rub together. Even if you are an Obamabot, it is hard to hold your head high and fight the fight when everyone is snickering about how 3rd grade Obama’s energy plan is.  Add to that is plan to soak Big Oil for $1,000 dollar checks for each American, as if any of us still believe in ‘free money’, and the guy is crashing as the biggest buffoon in memory.  Dukakis may have looked goofy, Obama thinks like Goofy.

All of this is shown in polls which continue to crash. From a 9 point lead in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll Obama lost all of those points in one week of gaffes and stumbles. An now, for the first time since Obama sewed up the Democrat nomination, he is behind in the latest Rassmussen Poll. But what is driving this collapse is clear from Rassmussen’s internals:

A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.

In one week McCain has gained 15 points with the independent middle of the electorate. That is a stunning change, and one I do not think is done playing out.  I suspect Gallup’s Daily Tracking Poll might show more erosion in the coming days (it seems to be a slower in picking up changes in the electorate than the Rasmussen Poll, which tends to show less volatility – go figure). Once the middle moves it will not move back again because we are heading into the conventions. If Obama goes in crippled he will definitely come out even more damaged.

Obama was always the candidate who would blow this race out of inexperience. There will be a lot of other excuses bantered about race, etc. But the fact is he is not performing presidential, and America does not select its presidents as if they were competing on American Idol.  Just as Obama lost control of his own campaign website, which has been a source of anti-Obama screeds from day one, Obama lost control of his PR team, who started treating him just like a brain dead celeb. And it was not hard to see it happening.

Update:  Goodness, Obama must be in serious poll trouble if the Washington Post had to go to one special group of the electorate to demonstrate any lead for Obama. Sadly for Obama, the group is not politically motivated or active:

Democratic Sen. Barack Obama holds a 2 to 1 edge over Republican Sen. John McCain among the nation’s low-wage workers, but many are unconvinced that either presidential candidate would be better than the other at fixing the ailing economy or improving the health-care system, according to a new national poll.

This is not a good group to rest your hopes of a campaign on.  And this group could change its mind as the Democrats remain the barrier to elements of a comprehensive energy plan that could impact oil and gas prices – specifically tapping our immense resources. These low-end workers are the ones getting hurt the most by energy prices, and the GOP effort to rightly paint the Democrats as the ones stopping immediate help in this area, Obama could lose this group as well.  I keep seeing more and more signs of trouble for Obama and his media groupies.

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21 Responses to “Lose The Middle Of The Electorate, Lose The Elections”

  1. […] mine.  As I noted back on August 4th Obama is losing the moderate middle of the electorate, which means he will end up losing the […]