Aug 01 2008

AJStrata Poll Prediction Comes True

Published by at 1:15 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

On Monday, when Obama was 9 points ahead of Obama in the Gallup Tracking Poll, I predicted that Obama’s world tour was such a disaster his lead would not survive the week. Here is what I said:

So I am going to predict we see the same effect, delayed a bit in the Gallup Poll this week. The now impressive 9 point lead will drop to 3-4 points before Friday. Treat this prediction as an experiment to prove a hypothesis regarding the relative sensitivity of these two polls, it’s all for fun.

Obama overachieved even my then radical prediction. Today he is now in a tie with McCain in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (follow link for larger image):

A 9 point loss in one week indicates this is by no means the end of his fall in support. It should only deepen in the coming weeks unless something major happens to change the dynamics. If the momentum is still moving and not flattening, then Obama could easily walk into the Democrat Convention well behind in the polls.

11 responses so far

11 Responses to “AJStrata Poll Prediction Comes True”

  1. cochino says:

    Interesting. I know you said it, AJ, but I didn’t expect this. I can’t believe Obama is actually going to fall behind McCain at this stage of the game, either, but then again . . . .

    What is causing it? In spite of what people on the left say, we all know there is no “there” there for Obama. People have been criticizing the Obama campaign for recent decisions that make him appear presumptuous: meeting with heads of state overseas, the big Berlin speech, appearing to taking on some of the trappings of the Presidency here at home, etc. It’s risky, true (and transparent, I think), but it’s necessary. They clearly have data that show that the average likely voter just isn’t buying him as Commander in Chief and they are working overtime to make him appear presidential and hoping that will work. Maybe it will work, but if the fall in poll numbers is really rooted in a lot people beginning to think Obama just isn’t up for the job, this could be catastrophic for him. I mean, bottom-dropping-out catastrophic. We’ll see.

  2. Toes192 says:

    FYI Aj. Your Alaska fan has moved you into #2 read of the day behind Powerline for what it’s worth… and I link [of 5] to you from my [fuanglada] blog. I have a some experience… insights… knowledge about Arab Muslims… having spent 14 years working in Saudi Arabia.

    Be sure to get the New Criterion booklet called “Free Speech in an Age of Jihad.”

    Sen. “O” reminds me of someone running for class president in high school. [1955] Just promise everything. I am very fond of this quote from a Byron York article. “A man named Allen [obviously substitute Obama] tells me…I could tell you I’m going to build you a house, and I am going to do everything you want…I am going to put everything in it just the way you want it. Then you give me your money [your vote] and… oops, you find out I am not a carpenter…”

  3. gwood says:

    The worst is yet to come for Obama. My prediction is that he will perform incredibly poorly in the debates.

    His many gaffes have already revealed a lack of knowledge in history, geography, and economics. Though obviously smart, what he exhibits is precisely what affirmative action in education results in…..a profound lack of education. Democrats will cringe when they witness him self-destruct during the debates, and they will have only themselves to blame. His handlers know this, and have already successfully avoided town-hall confrontations with McCain, but they will have to face him and the American people sooner or later.

  4. TomAnon says:

    Good Job on the predicition AJ!

    It’s been a bad week for BO.

    1) The arrogance is finally annoying more than the fringe opposition (WAPO Dana Milbank piece)

    2) Tire inflation will fix our gas prices

    3) Windfall Profit Tax oil companies for $1000 rebate (note: you will pay for that rebate a thousand times over)

    4) Stiffing the troops a Landstuhl

    5) Agreeing that higher gas prices are necessary

    6) “you do not see faces like mine on one dollar bills” directly accusing McCain and Bush of racialy motivated attacks. Third party references are fair; however, direct accusation is not.

    7) The Paris and Britney political add has been oddly effective, see point 1

    eight) Continued denial that the surge is working

    I bet there is more

  5. TomAnon says:

    Wow, let me add, major revolt underway in the House. Politico has got it covered:

  6. Neo says:

    Gallup has it at 44-44 tie today.

  7. Terrye says:

    I think the media over sold him and now people are tried of him. I also think that the Democrats are finding it more difficult to avoid responsibility. For instance when the Democrats took Congress, gas was at 2.25, oil was about $60 a barrel, the deficit was $250 billion and unemployment was about 5%. Now gas is hovering at $4, oil is over $120 a barrel. The deficit is over $400 billion and unemployment is 5.7%. They also promised to end the war and get rid of FISA and all sorts of crap and all they have managed to do is harass Bush and make asses of themselves.

    Maybe Democrats in general are not looking as good as they were.

  8. VinceP1974 says:

    Too bad the GOP is running for President someone who just the other day said he has so much respect for Pelosi.

  9. Dorf77 says:

    Vince I wouldn’t worry about it, after all he IS a politician and his lips were moving!

  10. crosspatch says:

    Hey, here’s something interesting that came up in the comments within the past week or so and Fox has a story on it.

    — Only 16.5 percent of the 6 million eligible military and overseas voters requested an absentee ballot for the November 2006 election.

    — Only one-third of the requested ballots were cast and counted.

    — And, 5.5 percent of the total eligible military and overseas citizen voters cast a ballot in the November 2006 election.

    The Defense Department Inspector General found that less than half of the troops knew who provided voter assistance to their units and how to get absentee ballots.

    Very few of our armed service members are actually voting. The quoted stuff, particularly the part about the voter assistance person and knowing how to get a ballot, match my experience 20 years ago. And it isn’t limited to soldiers overseas. Even soldiers stationed in the US but far from home have the same problems. I doubt if 5 percent of our entire military ever have their votes cast and counted.

    If I were a unit commander, heck, even a platoon leader, I would make sure all of my troops got ballots and either turned them back to me or stated to me that they are declining to vote and I would make sure they got mailed.

    Our troops need to vote.

  11. […] shown in polls which continue to crash. From a 9 point lead in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll Obama lost all of those points in one week of gaffes and stumbles. An now, for the first time since Obama sewed up the Democrat […]