May 23 2008
All Wars – Whether Victories, Defeats Or Draws – Leave Behind Troubles. We Can Declare Victory In Iraq
The last great war, World War II, was a victory for the West over the last rise of fascism. Â At that time the Fascism rose on the shoulders of racism. Â In the current war on terror the fascist rose on the shoulders of religious extremism. Â But very few remember clearly what happens when wars are over. Â Too many focus on the ticker-tape parades and forget the reality. Â All wars leave behind troubles, problems, messes and anger. Â There is no kumbayah moment were all the peace breaks out at once. Â This is not a Hollywood movie.
After World War II the world was actually left in really bad shape. Â Russia took over half of Europe. Something everyone expected was to be a liberation turned into a massive prison behind an iron curtain, controlled at the point of a gun. Â Berlin was under siege, US and British forces could only fly in supplies. Â It looked like another war was about to break out between Europe and Russia.
In the Pacific the Chinese also turned to communism, and tried to also take over neighboring states. The alliance that had defeated Germany, Japan and Italy was at each other’s throats. Â It was like some didn’t know when to stop fighting so they turned on each other. Â This was the result of the greatest victory over evil in mankind’s history. Â This was the result of the sacrifices made by the greatest generation alive (with those fighting the war on terror now a very, very close second).
In Korea a few years later China made its move to annex its neighbor. Â After 4 years of nearly losing and nearly winning the West fought to a draw. Â The result was a belligerent and cornered North Korea railing against its border with South Korea for decades as it impoverished its people into the worse mass slavery to a dictator in many centuries. Â We have had to have massive forces focused on this caged animal for half a century, because we fought to a draw and not a decisive win (like in WW II). Â We did not have the will in Korea so soon after WW II.
In Vietnam we tried to hide our hand for years, and then tried to do it on the cheap for years, and then let the media take victories and claim them as defeats. Â It was useless war to start, but by not winning the aftermath was massive human atrocities on a scale no one can grasp in their minds. Â The carnage is too great, and it rivals the carnage Hitler pulled off in Europe. Â The only difference is this carnage came because we let ourselves lose. Â Or more precisely we stopped ourselves from winning. Â Vietnam was not that important strategically, which is why it could be given up as a tactical loss. Â But the price paid by humankind for that short sighted end of hostilities was worse than all the deaths in the two large wars previously.
In WW II evil was beaten down. Â In Korea it was contained. Â In both cases the end results, while messy, included freedom from oppression and death for vast masses of humanity. Â In Vietnam, because we buckled, all the dying by our forces simply resulted in more death after the war was over as the Khmer Rouge and North Vietnamese went on one of the most horrific killing sprees in the history of mankind.
Three wars, three different conclusions – all left behind troubles. Â The farther from victory we end, the more troubles we’re left to deal with. Â And the one loss resulted in more deaths afterwards than inflicted in combat – and they were all non-combatants dying.
Iraq will not see the fates of any of these wars, unless we want it to so much we screw up to make it happen. Â IBD notes today that it is coming close to time where we can declare victory in Iraq. Â Not yet of course, but we should start to prepare for it if conditions continue on their current path.
Back from the front, Gen. David Petraeus called on Congress Thursday to begin considering a drawdown of U.S. troops after five years of war. Violence in Iraq has plunged to its lowest levels since 2004, and al-Qaida is a tattered shadow of its formerself — key leaders dead, successors weak and recruiting down.
“My sense” Petraeus said, “is I will be able to make a recommendation (in the autumn) for further reductions.”
This is no Saigon-style exit, but a coming victorious end of a long conflict. U.S. forces have pounded al-Qaida into irrelevance.
No, this is not Vietnam. Â And it is not Korea either. Â And it is not WW II. Â Iraq has the potential to have cost a fraction of the lives of these previous conflicts, and to end with the least troubles left behind. Â Our regional enemies in Iran are so distraught over our success in Iraq they are rattling their cage in anger, threatening war if peace and an alliance with America breaks out!
A senior Iranian cleric on Friday slammed as treachery to Islam a security accord due to be sealed between Baghdad and Washington on the presence of American troops in Iraq.
…
“It is open-ended slavery. It is the worst humiliation.
“Any hand that signs such an agreement will be considered by Iran as a traitor to Islam, to Shiism and to the Iraqi people,” he added.
This kind of frustrated and scared reaction by Iran warms my heart – because it is the best indication yet we are making a huge difference in Iraq and the region. Â Iran is losing its ability to sow death and destruction as it sees fit – their slave shackles. Â Well then, we must be doing things right!
Iraq is full of hope now that the dark shadow of Islamo Fascism has been removed from the country. Â Basra is happy, and the stories of Islamo Fascist atrocities on fellow muslims are echoing throughout the Muslim Street, destroying the cancer that is al-Qaeda and their ilk. Â This is the memory of al-Qaeda in Iraq:
The insurgents targeted men and usually left women and the elderly alone, so Abu Hassan went into hiding and his mother and wife, both teachers, went to work, did the shopping and updated him on the world outside: the killings, the bombings, the deterioration of the neighborhood and eventually the turnaround. His wife is a Sunni, which helped ensure her safety, as long as nobody knew her Shiite husband was hiding at home.
That ‘turnaround’ was the combined Awakening and US troop Surge which worked side by side to fight off and destroy al-Qaeda. Â Across the region from Lebanon to Afghanistan al-Qaeda is losing ground. And it started in Anbar, when Muslim allies of al-Qaeda realized who the real enemy of Islam was. Â They realized it was al-Qaeda (since they were the ones killing the Iraqi Muslims by droves) and not the Americans. Â Once this realization hit Iraq turned a corner, and so did Islam. Â Even Moqtada al-Sadr realized that the bloodshed being committed by religious fanatics was backfiring in the Muslim Street:
Petraeus noted dissident Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr issued a cease-fire last fall, realizing the actions of certain militia elements “were creating problems” and actually undermining support for his movement.
That is why Sadr and his Sadrists sued for peace in Basra and Sadr City, they were losing the Muslim Street. They were being defeated and their only hope for survival was to sue for peace. That is why Iraqi forces now control most of the country and the Militias are now political movements and not independent armies. That is why Iraq is healing and integrating.
Here is the news, from Iraqis themselves, the Western media cannot seem to find time or space to report – it is all about progress and a bright future:
Since 2003, we have built the Kurdistan Region as a model for democracy and a gateway for development for all of Iraq. We are willing partners in this transition toward an Iraqi government that is representative of all its people. Through our peshmerga forces, we provide some of the most effective units against al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. We Kurds are committed to a federal, democratic Iraq at peace within its borders and with its neighbours.Â
We are working with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the Iraqi leadership in Baghdad on the difficult issues facing our country. Our relationship with Iraq’s federal government has never been better. And progress is being made on an oil law, the status of disputed territories, the proper role for Iraq’s neighbours to play, and on relations between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Turkey.Â
There is much more brightness than dark in Iraq. Â There is expanding hope and retreating Islamo Fascism. There is increasing security, and increasing frustration in Iran that it lost its opportunity to beat the Great Satan. Â There is victory coming to Iraq and America. Â And it will leave behind troubles and challenges. Â All wars do. Â
The question is whether to deal with these problems as the victor or the vanquished. Â Too many on the left in the West yearn to be dealing with the mess of Iraq from a position of defeat. Â They ignorantly believe this position will help their political aspirations back home. Â Sadly for them victory creeps closer, and their political dreams start to fade in the face of the rising new Iraq. Â
Americans, whether for or against the war, know down deep we need to work the lingering messes from the best vantage point possible.  And since we can attain the high ground of victory now, there is no reason for Americans to make Iraq more like Vietnam, with all the death and atrocities that would follow.  Amazingly, those who decry the death and destruction in Iraq the most now promote the idea of not only continuing it through our defeat, but amplifying it manifold by allowing the now beaten forces if Islamo Fascism to escape again to pillage and murder their fellow Muslims.  Now it is the left whose policies will surely bring about massive human sufferings to these people – and they cannot even admit it to themselves.
Absolutely one of AJ’s best posts yet! So well written, so well said.
I think it would be a dicey issue to use the word “victory”, however. . I would center in on the “success of the surge” which is “bringing us victory” because I wouldn’t underestimate Iran’s proxy war in Iraq. I think the coalition and the Iraqi government have it under control……and it will only get better from here on out. But, all it would take would be for one devastating suicide bombing of a mall killing 500 people or something and the “victory” phrase would look like the “mission accomplished” phrase.
But, make no mistake…..
this is huge!!!! I think Americans will sense it soon enough. The decline in terror acts since 2001 should be shouted loud though!!!!
Americans should know that we are winning and we are winning big. They should also be informed of the gathering storm that still exists…..and that the “Long War” continues. But, that we are definately safer.
The credit belongs to Bush and his great General (Patraeus).
I can also tell you that the Democrats will try to steal the credit somewhere down the road. Especially if Obama wins.
Frogg,
You are right. When the left tries to claim credit for the win it will be over.
GREAT POST AJ
The left lied to win the 2006 election.
They said they would bring the troops home, lower gas prices, reign in the budge spending, reign in pork, something about pay go. SO WILL THEY TELL THE TRUTH NOW. Not a chance. The good news is they probably can’t screw it up either.
I vote for George Bush. I say thank you, you lead our country in a time of need, job well done!
ALL wars are unique. Like fingerprints. Most people (Including generals) tend to fight the last war again. In some ways, wars are similar. Some more so than others. But they are always different in some fundamental ways.
I don’t think the left CAN claim Iraq as their win. They have painted themselves into a corner, principally by steadfastly denying that Saddam was cruel and despotic before we went into Iraq. In order to claim credit they would first have to admit that this liberation was a good thing for the Iraqi people and they simply cannot and will not admit that, ever.
We can expect them to continue to equate the American presence with an “occupation” and point out the inevitable “inequities” that will result from a burgeoning democratic-capitalist entity. All the wealth that gets built will “annihilate their wonderful culture”, etc. The same things they bitch about in America will be applied to Iraq.
The left has already tried to claim credit for the success of the surge, and I believe the attempt backfired. Note the cryptic, pretzel-logic-filled rants posted here by Sooth, Norm, and the rest. I sense pain….no, agony, as they attempt to refute reality, convince themselves that white is black.
They simply chose the wrong side to root for, and we should remind them of it every chance we get. I hope they try to take credit, it will mean they realize the outcome of the Iraq war is worth taking credit for, and that would represent great progress.
I just hope someone holds their feet to the fire over their declarations of defeat in the past couple of years. The RNC should be plastering the airwaves with the words of Reid and Pelosi and Murtha and contrasting those words with the reality of today and asking the people “Are these the people you want leading your country?”
Never happen, though. The Republicans seem to have lost their spine at the national marketing level.
Is this just an implication ? ..
Woof.
AJ, good post and I hope you are right but I’m sorry to say Iraq will probably see the same troubled fate all American wars leave behind in their wake. It isn’t the wars themselves that leave these problems behind but ourselves. Americans have too short a will to see anything through and no patience for the difficult tasks of rebuild that come afterwards. This is our curse as a nation that we never, ever follow the opportunities victories provide us. It will happen again, I’m sorry to say. It may not be fatal, it may not be disastrous, but something will always be leftover for a future generation to deal with. The Dems have shown no hints whatsoever that they are willing to even win this war so you can damned sure be certain they won’t be helping with the aftermath.
Neo, I’d say it’s a clear admission.
“Americans have too short a will to see anything through and no patience for the difficult tasks of rebuild that come afterwards.”
I wonder, though, that with every passing deployment cycle we have sent more and more Americans over there to experience things first hand. With every passing year there are more people in this country who have a personal investment in the result there and they may be willing to stick it out over the long haul. And they may be quite persuasive over the holiday dinner table in having their families and neighbors see it that way too.
What makes this war different from many in the past is how our individual service members have connected with the people there. When a US reservist who was a farmer back home finds a way to get seed, fertilizer, and irrigation to a community of Iraqi farmers, he isn’t going to want to see that personal investment of time and effort thrown away.
I am cautiously optimistic.
CP, Agreed…I will happily say I am wrong if our nation sees it through. Perhaps I should have qualified the comment that it’s not just Americans with the lack of will but Democracies in general. History is filled with examples of Democracies not only losing their will in a current conflict but quickly discarding the responsibilties shortly after. The English, for example, didn’t even re-elect Churchill’s party after WWII. And here we are now with victory at hand, and Congress, the Senate and possibly the White House in the left’s hands. I’m sure you can see my reasons for worry.
The lack of historical context in this is astoudning . . . but not surprising. Let me choose but one example: Vietnam.
Vietnam lay under Chinese domination for 10 centuries, but in the 11th century, the people rose up and repelled the Chinese invaders. Vietnamese independence ended in the mid-1800’s when the European colonial power France occupied the country and made it a colony.
Following WWI, many Vietnamese were educated in France, including Ho Chi MInh, who determined to return to his native country and free it from a colonial power, much as the American colonies threw out the British.
After the defeat of France by Germany in WWII, France ceased to fight against the Japanese in French Indo-China, leaving the fighting to the US and our ally, Vietnam, led by Ho Chi Minh.
Following the defeat of Japan, the Vietnamese expected their freedom. Instead, we allowed the French to return to Vietnam and take up their colonial rule. Thus began the war in French-Indo-China, between the French and the Viet Minh.
From 1946 to 1954 the Vietnamese fought the French, and in 1954, following a stunning military victory at Dien Ben Phu, when the Viet Minh hand-carried cannons up the mountains surrounding the plain at Dien Ben Phu and encircling the French, forcing them to surrender.
The war ended with at the peace conference in Geneva, where as a term of the treaty the Vietnamese were promised nationwide elections to unify the country in 1956.
In 1956, John Foster Dulles (Sec. of State and a former Standard Oil who had defended Standard of New Jersey (Esso – now Exxon) some of whose assets were seized byt he US government for allowing the Nazis to use Standard’s tetra-ethyl lead for the Luftwaffe all during the war) and his brother Allen Dulles (head of the CIA and a former Standard Oil attorney, etc, etc) told Eisenhower that if the elections were held in 1956, Ho Chi Minh – who was considered the George Washington of his county – would have received 80% of the vote.
The US cancelled the promised election. This lead to US involvement in the war in French Indo China, later to beknown as the Vietnam War. Our involvement began when we prevented a democratic eleciton because we didn’t like the probable outcome.
Aj:
Good post.
AJ,
You better knock this type of wrting off or you will make the top 10 best blogs.
The English, for example, didn’t even re-elect Churchill’s party after WWII.
Mostly because they were weary as hell. They’d spent six years in the fight, absorbed tremendous damage, and a lot of Tories no-showed because they resented the Americans waltzing in halfway through the war and collecting a cheap victory (well, cheap compared to the ghastly price Great Britain had paid).
Wellington summed it up: “Nothing except a battle lost can be half so melancholy as a battle won.” That goes for wars, too.
That said, winning this war is crucial. Islamism is just the latest in a string of evil ideologies that seeks to either recast man in its own image or exterminate him. No doubt it will not be the last.
First, AJ, great post. looks like you spent a lot of time to say it right.
Cobalt Shiva:
Americans waltzing in halfway through the war and collecting a cheap victory (well, cheap compared to the ghastly price Great Britain had paid).
Britain spent 6 years in it but the USA spent 4 in it. and cheap? 500,000 military deaths compared to UK losing less than 400,000, so it wasn’t cheap in American lives compared to anyone else (except Russians).
It’s not the democracies that don’t like victory, it’s the Democrats.
There will be no victory in Iraq until Regime Change comes to Iran
Some info from “Gateway Pundit”.
AP reported that Al Sistani said Iraqi’s can attack occupiers. Problem is that America is in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi’s, so not considered occupiers. So I guess AP doesn’t know that the US is not occupying Iraq.
Senator thanked the Generals at the Senate hearing. Did anyone see it televised. Didn’t think so. Did anyone see it reported, like how well we are doing. Guess news of Iraq is not so important any more.
kathie: Who are the occupiers that Sistani is talking about?
Al Queda Vince.