May 12 2008

Truce Or No Truce With Sadrists In Iraq?

Published by at 1:00 pm under All General Discussions,Iran,Iraq,Sadr/Mahdi Army

Bumped to Top – Major Update: It would seem Sadr is not willing to go for a real suspension of the fighting, signing up to only a 4 day “truce”:

Representatives of the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr and lawmakers from Iraq’s main Shiite political bloc signed a four-day cease-fire Monday in an effort to end seven weeks of fighting in the neighborhood of Sadr City here.

Sadr is thought to have influence over some of the militants in the area, but not all of them. Many of those fighting Iraqi and U.S. forces are thought to have broken away from Sadr’s militia, the Mahdi army, so it was unclear how the truce would unfold.

Rather than expose the fact the Mahdi Army is out of his control (and therefore under the control of those who trained and armed them – namely the Iranians) Sadr has tried a lame band-aid which clearly will not hold. This is actually a really dumb move on his part. Once the truce is violated or over, the bloodshed will start up again. While the liberal western media may play this as the fault of the Maliki government, the Iraqi people will not. They will see a lame attempt by the Sadrists, which will continue to erode their support for the coming elections. The Sadrists are basically screwed, the cannot stem the violence which is having the same effect on the Iraqi Muslim Street as al-Qaeda’s violence did – a rising backlash.

The Sadrists are heading for an electoral bloodbath as they continue to provide cover for Iranian trained and armed thugs who kill and oppress Iraqis by vastly larger numbers than any effect they can inflict on American Forces. Iraqis celebrate the coming of Maliki and the removal of the Sadrist henchmen – a mood that is not going to end through a wimpy 4 day suspension of fighting. In the end the Iranian puppets in Iraq will feel the wrath of the Iraqi people, there seems no way to avoid that now unless the Sadrist fully surrender and bring real peace. Their only way out now is to succumb to the rule of law. – end update

Like everything in life the surrender of the Mahdi Army to the Iraq rule of law, as defined and imposed by the duly elected government under Prime Minister Maliki, is not cut and dry – or instant. It seems the final form of the agreement was just signed by representatives from each Shiite camp – which means any side that violates the agreement will be shown to be inept, at best.

The deal was officially signed Monday between five representatives of firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and four member of the main Shiite political bloc.

Khalid al-Attiyah, the deputy parliamentary speaker, says Iraqi government forces will be able to enter Sadr City as early as Wednesday.

I am certain the Iraqi government would have liked to known the ‘truce’ was still actually days away before they sent an army group in, which was attacked with roadside bombs. It also seems some bloodthirsty Islamo Fascists want to get one last lick in on the US Forces, and are dying to do so (literally):

Three people were killed separate incidents as violence flared Sunday night into Monday morning, CNN reported.

U.S. troops were fired upon and in the ensuing fight killed one person, officials said. Later, military officials said a “criminal” attacked U.S. soldiers with a rocket-propelled grenade and was shot and killed. In a third confrontation, soldiers fired upon a band of attackers, killing one.

There will always be dead enders. But I note again that the general public is all for the removal of the Mahdi thugs and the establishment of the rule of law by the elected Iraqi government forces. From a previous post and this article covering the situation in Basra where the last “truce” with the Mahdi and Sadrists led to the Mahdi being dispersed and the government taking over:

In a rare success, forces loyal to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki have largely quieted the city, to the initial surprise and growing delight of many inhabitants who only a month ago shuddered under deadly clashes between Iraqi troops and Shiite militias.

But in interviews across Basra, residents overwhelmingly reported a substantial improvement in their everyday lives.

“The circle of fear is broken,” said Shaker, owner of a floating restaurant on Basra’s famed Corniche promenade, who, although optimistic, was still afraid to give his full name, as were many of those interviewed.

The principal factor for improvement that people in Basra cite is the deployment of 33,000 members of the Iraqi security forces after the March 24 start of operations, which allowed the government to blanket the city with checkpoints on every major intersection and highway.

Borrowing tactics from the troop increase in Baghdad, the Iraqi forces raided militia strongholds and arrested hundreds of suspects. They also seized weapons including mortars, rocket-propelled grenades and sophisticated roadside bombs that officials say were used by Iranian-backed groups responsible for much of the violence.

Government forces have now taken over Islamic militants’ headquarters and halted the death squads and “vice ‘enforcers’ ” who attacked women, Christians, musicians, alcohol sellers and anyone suspected of collaborating with Westerners.

Shaker’s floating restaurant stands as one emblem of the change since then.

The Sadrists know one thing – they need the votes of the people next fall if they are to hold onto power. But does anyone believe those who back oppressive thugs will get many votes? I know there are still those so naive and biased in the west to think the masses will follow the Islamo Fascists into personal hell, but the reality has been that the Muslim Street wants to raise their families in peace. And they rejoice when the oppression of Islamists is removed. This kind of reputation is not going to win them votes.

I think the Sadrists and their Iranian backers see which way all this is trending, so they are suing for peace under these surrender terms in hope they can undo the damage to their reputations. The Sadrists claim Maliki did this to hurt their chances in the fall elections by taking away their ability to oppress at gunpoint. Well, that may be more Freudian slip than anything else. But I am sure once you take the threat of violence away and give the Shiites the opportunity of a real independent vote the Sadrists are done.

Just like in Iran if real free and open elections were allowed. If the Iranians were given a choice between the Mullahs and real sectarian democracy they would chose the latter, which is why the Iranians restrict the options available to voters. They run a facade of democracy to hide their oppression of their own people. And maybe it was becoming to clear to everyone which form of government was trying to be imposed by the Sadrists and their Iranian backers. I think the enemies of a democrat Iraq miscalculated badly, and sued for peace way too late. The Sadrists will do very poorly in this fall’s elections because the Iraqis have a real choice, one the Iranians wished they had. They will not chose to go back under the jackboot of religious oppression.

Update: Anyone who buys into the other spin on all this that Iran brokered ‘peace’ is also being naive. Iran may have tried to stop the hemorrhaging of support for the Sadrists inside Iraq, but it has not stopped its call for open revolt against Maliiki’s government before he establishes a long term pact with America:

Iran’s hard-line newspapers on Monday called on Iraqis to oppose a strategic framework agreement that is being negotiated between Iraq and the United States and accused Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of caving in to American demands over the pact.

The Jomhuri-e-Eslami daily said in a front-page editorial that the agreement is a “capitulation the U.S. has imposed on the oppressed Iraqi people,” and urged Iraqis to turn to “a popular revolution” that would bring about the “expulsion of the occupiers” from Iraq.

The papers’ blistering criticism of al-Maliki is the first such public condemnation from Iran, which hosted Maliki during the reign of former dictator Saddam Hussein.

Maybe some people cannot connect dots, but let’s recall that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quuds Force was found to be training Iraqi fighters in Iran, as well as arming them. So now Iran, in a panic, exposes its true fear and nature. Something must be brewing inside Iran if they fear a democracy with strong ties to America in Iraq. Their call for open revolt has exposed the depth of their fear. These hardliners are the voice of control in Iran. They are expressing the essence of Iranian policy. And it is clear from this display the essence of that policy is to stop Iraq from becoming an free democracy with ties to the West. Would they arm and train and support a civil war in Iraq? Clearly the answer is yes.

10 responses so far

10 Responses to “Truce Or No Truce With Sadrists In Iraq?”

  1. kathie says:

    So Iran arms Sadr and used it’s Quds force in Iraq, uses Hizabolla and Quds force in Lebanon, Hamas and Quds in Gaza, no wonder they think Israel is doomed and soon. Maybe on Jan. 20th they will make their final move on Israel. Wake up world!

  2. dave m says:

    Hi AJ,
    Here is some more good news, just breaking,
    in Pakistan: Nawaz Sharif has withdrawn the members
    of his PML-N (terror supporting) party from the governing
    coalition. That leaves the PPP (Benazir Bhutto’s party) needing
    to turn to Musharraf to get the quorum needed to keep
    a government in power – or let General Musharraf return to
    a state of emergency and military rule. All you can say is
    good riddance to Nawaz and his Bin Laden mates.

    Kathie, I think this will get sorted out before the 20th of January,
    maybe starting in November. It will have to if 57 states Obama
    gets elected. By the way, why 57? That’s the number of
    states in the OIC (Organization of Islamic Countries). Obama
    probably just forgot for a minute to lie about whom he really
    works for.

  3. crosspatch says:

    Iran is going to try to broker a peace because they would not be able to survive the alternative. Images of the people themselves rising up against the Mahdi Army and wiping them out would be much higher price than the Iranians want to pay at the moment. They would rather broker a peace which can be spun as a victory in their friendly press.

    Anything short of the out and out annihilation of the Mahdi Army is going to be played as a Sadr victory. He is victorious apparently because the organization still exists.

  4. WWS says:

    Sadr’s victories remind me of this guy’s:

  5. KauaiBoy says:

    If the Iranian people are intelligent, they are observing what is going around on two sides of them and if such attempts at democracy succeed, they will have a clear example of another option at living—afterall, in a free society the mullahs would be free to live their lives as they wished—build a nice little compound in the desert in Iran or would they just move over here I wonder?

    In any event these are world changing times and it is our responsibility to alter the outcome in our favor—-nothing wrong with that as we are the only ones obviously courageous enough to stand up for freedom and not just talk a nice game. Our next president better remember that is job one.

  6. 75 says:

    I’m afraid “job one” for our next president will be to become president and remain president.

  7. MerlinOS2 says:

    In other news the coalition in Pakistan split so now it looks like Bhutto’s party will align with Musharraf to form a government.

  8. scaulen says:

    Hmmm 4 day truce, kind of like every other truce he’s done. Buy time and make it look like it’s the other sides fault for breaking it. He needs to be Jimmy Hoffa’d.

  9. […] In the post below I noted how the brutal oppression of Sadr City residents, at the hands of the Iranian trained and armed Mahdi Army, was eroding any and all popular support for the Sadrists who are the ones providing political cover for the human atrocities. A recent ‘news’ article catalogues the Islamo Fascist hell the Sadrists and the Mahdi Army inflicted on the residents of Sadr City – stories which are sure to permeate the Iraqi Muslim Street and provide an indelible stain upon the Sadrist movement, destroying their support and opportunities at the polls this fall: Inside Abdul Hassan’s home, furnished with colorful rugs and flimsy mattresses, Sakran and his wife hoped for calm after weeks of bombardment and gunbattles, but they feared that the worst is yet to come. […]

  10. […] the media thought could win where actually Islamo Fascist thugs the people wanted to be rid of (see here, here,, here and here for […]