May 08 2008
The End Is Near For The Mahdi In Sadr City
As I posted yesterday the Iraqi government is preparing for a final thrust into Sadr City to clear out Mahdi Militia thugs who have been hiding and using weapons amongst the people living there in order to attack the Iraqi government and US forces:
raqi soldiers for the first time warned residents in the embattled Sadr City district to leave their houses Thursday, signaling a new push by the U.S.-backed forces against Shiite extremist who have been waging street battles for seven weeks.
Iraqi soldiers, using loudspeakers, told residents in some virtually abandoned areas of southeastern Sadr City to go to nearby soccer stadiums, residents said. UNICEF says about 6,000 people have been forced to flee their homes in Sadr City, most of them from the southeastern section.
U.S. forces have increased air power and armored patrols in an attempt to cripple Shiite militia influence in Sadr City, a slum of 2.5 million people that serves as the Baghdad base for the Mahdi Army led by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
The U.S. military is trying to weaken the militia’s grip in the slum and disrupt rocket and mortar strikes from Sadr City on the U.S.-protected Green Zone, which includes the U.S. Embassy and key Iraqi government offices.
Like most Islamo Fascist criminals the Mahdi have been using the residents of Sadr City as human shields, setting up command posts next to hospitals and firing rocket and missile launchers in neighborhoods with families. All of these acts are war crimes – but the SurrenderMedia will never remind people of that. Conversely, at least the Iraqi Army is trying to warn innocent citizens to move away from the Islamo Fascists.
Interestingly enough soccer fields don’t strike me as long term housing areas. My guess is this will be quite short. Ed Morrissey has more on the matter at Hot Air.
Interesting comment at the end of Bill Roggio’s latest entry, I think you’ve already linked to it somewhere.
“On May 1, the Iraqi government sent a delegation to confront Iran on its involvement with the insurgency, but Sadr, who is currently in Iran, refused to meet with the Iraqi government representatives. ”
Refused to meet or wasn’t allowed to meet? Interesting question.
Whichever is true, a couple of things are obvious from that statement:
1) Sadr isn’t with his forces
2) Sadr doesn’t even have realtime communication with his forces.
3) Sadr thus isn’t capable of giving any orders to his forces.
4) No one would bother following any orders even if he did give them, which he can’t be bothered to do.
5) Thus, Sadr is an empty figurehead who has already lost any vestige of real influence or power.
6) The Mahdi Army is thus leaderless and directionless, and will react like a blind, confused beast – with anger but with no purpose or plan.
7) Like any blind beast, the Mahdi Army will quickly lose any battle against a focused opponent, and will be destroyed.
And again I am going to bring up Hezbollah in this context. Today they announced that the Lebanese Army is their enemy. Hezbollah will get into a fight unlike any other. Hezbollah is configured to fight a house to house battle against Israel, not against practically every other group in Lebanon.
Handing the Revolutionary Guards Quds a defeat in Iraq might have a much larger strategic value than simply the battle inside Iraq.
“The Mahdi Army is thus leaderless and directionless”
No, I would say that Mahdi Army is being lead and directed by Iran. Sadr is right now in Ayatollah school in training to be a qualified Iranian stooge in Iraq to take over as Grand Ayatollah at some point in the future. Iran has a burning need to control the Shiite holy lands in Iraq. Iran’s mullahs are going to feel that their validity as the leaders of the global Shiite community is threatened as long as an alternative independent authority exists in Iraq. They need to get the Iraqi Shiites under their control or they risk loosing their place as the global voice of the Shiites.
I don’t disagree that Iran is trying to give them direction – but when you think about it, that is far from having an actual leader. Any force, militia, organization, what have you, needs to feel like they are a distinct entity with a distinct purpose, and having an actual leader is part of that. Without that, the members have to admit they are just someone else’s pawns – even when it’s true, nobody likes to admit that, not even terrorists.
And yet who now leads the Mahdi Army? Not Sadr, he’s incommunicado. Not the special groups directors – they may lead small parts of it, but they have no overall command. The head of the Revolutionary Guards from Iran? He may have some influence, but will those Mahdi members really live and die for him personally? Is he their leader, or is he just the sugar daddy who hands out goodies?
When the real shooting starts, is there anyone who commands their allegiance to the point that they will stand and die for him? Anyone? Because that’s what any real fighting force needs to hang together.
Anyone who doesn’t have that level of leadership to look to will not stand and fight when the fight gets hot. They will turn and run till they can’t run no more.
“Anyone who doesn’t have that level of leadership to look to will not stand and fight when the fight gets hot. They will turn and run till they can’t run no more.”
Well said WWS—but are you really referring to the democrat party?