May 06 2008

Live Blogging The IN & NC Primaries

Published by at 4:50 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

5:50 PM Eastern: Here we go again, with early exit polls leaning Obama – which have been proven wrong time and time again in these primaries. Huge turnout has never helped Obama (recall how PA played out!). So all the hype about exit polls showing a large Obama lead in NC are possibly right, but history would dictate they are not.

5:55 PM Eastern: Someone on the phone with Fox News is predicting a high single digit win in NC for Obama – not the resounding win the exit polls claim. Pass out the popcorn!

6:00 PM Eastern: OK, here are the early exits and they claim Obama by 12 points, but that is just not reasonable. Exit polls are useless, so I am predicting it will be closer to 5 points than 12. Will definitely post around 7:00 PM Eastern when polls close. BTW – here was my morning predictions.

6:05 PM Eastern: Clinton is taking the white male vote in IN and NC (roughly 60 -40), which is not good for Obama. He doesn’t do well in primaries unless he has the white male vote. Both states show significant impacts from the Wright debacle – another bad sign for Obama.

6:55 PM Eastern: The exit polls seem to be trending to the absolutely bizarre, which would simply be another example of busted exit polls (like we haven’t seen that before). With 3% precincts reporting in from IN it is Clinton 59-41% 61-39%, which is meaningless. What will be interesting at 7:00 PM is whether Fox News and others do a quick call on IN. That would imply a strong Clinton showing (which is what I think is going to pan out). Back in a few minutes.

7:02 PM Eastern: OK, Fox News has decided not to call Indiana quickly for Clinton, which means Obama may be doing well. But it also could mean insufficient data is in and the call for Clinton will come soon. With almost half indicating Wright had an effect on their vote my guess it will be hard to call until at least 20% report in. Back in a few!

7:10 PM Eastern: The implosion inside the Democrat party is building with each primary according to the exit polls:

Forget the horse race numbers for a moment: if the surveys are accurate, the polarization within the Democratic Party has reached critical levels. Nearly six in ten Obama supporters in Indiana say they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the nominee — that’s (I believe) the high percentage of Obama supporters who have ever said that.

In both IN and NC, two thirds of Clinton supporters say they’d be dissatisfied if Obama were the nominee — I believe that’s the highest number recorded for that question, too.

As the two camps dig in more and more it becomes more and more likely no one will put the party back together again. There is too much bitterness ready to boil over. No word on whether there will be a rush on bibles and guns yet.

With 6% of the precincts reporting Clinton is holding onto her 59-41% lead.

7:15 PM Eastern: Fox News is reporting that the exit polls show a 52-48 win in IN for Clinton, but they are warning their viewers that Obama never does as well as in the final results as the exit polls show. Fair warning!

7:25 PM Eastern: Well, looks like this is Obama’s night because Fox is going to call NC right when the polls close at 7:30 PM Eastern, and has yet to call IN where Clinton is leading (now with 15% reporting it is 57-43 Clinton in IN). Be back at the bottom of the hour when NC is called for Obama.

7:30 PM Eastern: Fox has called NC for Obama, now the question is what will the margins of victory be in what is turning out to be another primary day tie. They called it on the large number of black voters (but that is all based on exit polls). Still not sure where this ends tonight – both win their states by 5%??

7:45 PM Eastern: OK, with 25% of the precincts reporting in for IN Clinton still holds a sizable lead of 57-43%. It seems someone should call this soon as a win (Fox still holding off). The margins are the last bit of data required to see how hard it will be for Clinton to stay alive through June 3rd. Right now she looks to still have some serious life left in her campaign.

7:52 PM Eastern: With 31% in Clinton still holds a 57-43% lead. Apparently some Obama precincts were allowed to stay open late due to lack of ballots. I doubt they would move these numbers much with so many other precincts in. Something is holding the networks from making the call, which means the margin should shrink as the vote comes in.

8:01 PM Eastern: With 35% reporting for IN and the ever stable 57-43% lead for Clinton is holding. The reason people are holding off in IN because they don’t have any primary model and the exit polls are not lining up with the results. Two big counties with large African American populations have very little returns. Again as the reporting precincts climb even these large voter pools for Obama cannot change the totals much.

8:16 PM Eastern: With 41% reporting for IN Cltinon holding onto a 56-44% lead. Seems the networks are going to wait until this gets well above the 50% reporting mark.

8:34 PM Eastern: Last post (I need to get onto non-blog stuff tonight). IN will be called for Clinton sometime soon. With 52% reporting in she still holds a hefty 54-46% win. NC looks to be a big Obama win. With 14% reporting in Obama leads 63-35% in NC. I am sure this will shrink, but will it go to single digits as some hinted earlier this evening?

4 responses so far

4 Responses to “Live Blogging The IN & NC Primaries”

  1. VA Voter says:

    McCains judge speech that is in the news today looks and sounds very senatorial.

  2. kathie says:

    MAYOR OF GARY says we are in for a big surprise. Hillary may not get a win. Just saying!

  3. Terrye says:

    Well Hillary won, but not by much. In my country she carried 65% of the Democrat vote.

    Now Gary is something else. Talk about chickens coming home to roost. For years Republicans have claimed the Gary vote is rigged. Now Hillary knows how they feel.

  4. MerlinOS2 says:

    Gary is right in the backyard of Chicago due to location with a large black population.

    It sure took a looooooooooong time to count those votes.

    Lake county is in the very NW corner of the state.

    Also I am looking real close at the voter registration totals compared to voter age population in that state. You end up with over 90% of people registered , which is very high compared to national averages.

    In past elections in Ind the black vote worked out to about 6.5% of the vote but they turned out to push it up to near 13% this time.

    Beginning to wonder it that whole voter data base needs to have some second looks, just to be sure.