Apr 22 2008

PA Results

Published by at 7:26 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

8:25 PM: Everyone is racing to dump the exit polls. Jim Geraghty has the most interesting reporting on exit polls claiming Drudge got them backwards when he posted 52% Clinton 48% Obama. He also reports Obama winning blue color, Reagan democrats – which is opposite from what has been reported in the exit polls. Looks to me like we have another case of garbage polls. Should be an interesting night! Pass the popcorn.

Actual state results can be found here

8:37 PM: Fox is reporting the latest exit polls have Clinton up by 6%, noting Obama does best in the earlier poll numbers and fades through out the reporting. Finally results are coming in (less than 1%)!

8:45 PM: Wow, that was fast – Fox calls PA for Hillary! But now we need to see the margin, which will take some time.

8:52 PM: Key Exit poll numbers: Union Households (Reagan Dems) went with Hillary 57 to 43, same for voters without college degrees. Interesting to see if these are bitter voters with their guns and bibles.

8:55 PMFox is getting results faster than the state is posting them on it site. With 3% reporting in it is 53-47 Clinton. Some commentary hints this is the low end estimate of her win. Who has that popcorn?

9:00 PM Michael Barone has some initial votes mixed with exit polls in his analysis and is predicting about a ten point margin (55-45).

9:10 PM Fox had Major Garrett at Hillary PA HQ and they were watching another network which did not call the state for Hillary until about 20 minutes after Fox and others. They don’t call it the Clinton News Network for nothing I guess. With 7% of the precincts in it 54-46 Hillary. BTW, my predictions from earlier this morning can be found here.

9:38 PM Fox has 24% precincts reporting and it is 54-46. The numbers are bouncing between 6-8% lead. I would bet this is getting close to the range where the results will fall. Definitely when we get around 35-40% of the precincts reporting. There comes a point where the numbers won’t budge.

9:51 PM Michael Barone makes a stunning point – if Hillary continues to get around an 8+% lead she could take the overall popular vote from Obama (if you include MI and FL). The voters who voted in FL and MI cannot be ignored (especially after all the crap Gore pulled in 2000). If she walks away from today with the popular vote lead then watch Obama stumble. One will have the delegates, the other the votes. And the Superdelegates will have all the headaches.

BTW, Obama appears to only have taken the Philadelphia area by 60-40, which seems to me not to be enough to offset the rest of the state. And I note some boundary counties around the Philadelphia County not reporting at all – and I believe these represent Hillaryland.

10:05 PM I went and checked the RCP vote total page and Barone is right, Hillary will take the popular vote with FL and MI added in. With 50% of the precincts in (which is not the same as percentage of the votes) she has around a 90,000 vote lead. She should double that by the end of the night, easily taking the popular vote when all votes are counted. And she is on the way to wiping out the lead with just FL added in. Her lead is still 8%, but that is not going to be the news – she is going to have the most votes despite the rules of the DNC.

10:10 PM Fox is noting that what I noted, all of Obama’s areas are in and he did not get enough margin in the Philadelphia. Hillary is winning in Pittsburgh by ten points with 70% in and just racking up numbers elsewhere. Pat Caddell is predicting mid-low teens lead when all is said and done and is seeing the same pattern in the returns I noted earlier. This is a huge night for Hillary.

10:33 PM If you count all the votes (remember that phrase dems) Clinton now has the popular vote lead and has a chance to win the popular vote lead with only MI excluded. All those predictions that the massive influx of new voters would help Obama backfired. All those new voters helped Clinton pad her vote lead and take that key indication of voter support from Obama. All other formulas are based on party rules and processes – not the will of the people. She has a good argument.

24 responses so far

24 Responses to “PA Results”

  1. 75 says:

    Terrye, I highly suggest tuning into Rush everyday. He’s on top of all this.

  2. Whippet1 says:

    From the AP article I linked above:

    “After a six-week lull since the last Democratic primary,
    Pennsylvania voters were so eager to participate in the hotly contested battle between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama that one in 10 voting Tuesday had changed their party registration since the start of 2008 so they would be eligible to vote in the Democratic race. The contest was open only to registered Democrats. About half the party-switchers had been registered Republicans, while the rest had been unaffiliated with either party or were voting for the first time in Pennsylvania.”

    They switched party in order to vote. Now the AP article would have you believe that Republicans were switching to vote as Democrats because they want a Dem in office… highly, highly unlikely. The more the MSM pushes this as fact the more the left can scream “stolen election” when the dems don’t win in the general. Some things never change…

  3. 75 says:

    I wouldn’t miss Rush’s show tomorrow for all the tea in China (or Clinton votes in Chinatown…whichever floats your boat!)!

  4. VinceP1974 says:

    Terrye: If you dont have time to listen to Rush on the radio, go to his website and read the articles about Operation Chaos