Apr 18 2008

End Game On With Sadr Should Bring Sadr’s End

Published by at 9:57 am under All General Discussions,Iraq,Sadr/Mahdi Army

I was collecting articles on a post showing the end game coming in Iraq for Sadr and his Mahdi Army but Bill Roggio beat me to the punch today in a much better post than I was going to put together. Update – some interesting tidbits inside Roggio’s piece are worth emphasizing:

Iraq’s Department of Border enforcement also seized a large shipment of roadside bombs, landmines, and explosives as it was smuggled from Iran into Iraq’s Diyala province.

The Mahdi Army appears to be striking back by targeting political and religious leaders in the Baghdad South. Over the period of two days, assassination attempts were carried out against the governor of Najaf province and a senior aide to Sistani in Wasit province.

It seems Iran and the Mahdi are getting desperate. The weapons going into Diyala are possibly for al-Qaeda to use, since that is their region of Iraq. It would be another indicator of Iran’s support to both al-Qaeda and the Mahdi. The assassination attempts are clearly attacks Iraq’s government, now a US ally. This is a dangerous game for Sadr and Iran to play. We will not allow defeat easily. – end update

Needless to say Sadr has refused to disarm despite statements from Grand Ayatollah Sistani in Najaf that Sadr must obey the law and disband his militia. Here is the response from the Mahdi claiming they won’t disarm until the Shiite clerics tell them to – again? Here is a great piece at Pajama’s Media by the owner of the blog site Iraq The Model who notes the end game is in play:

The ongoing confrontation highlights a dramatic change in the inclination of the Iraqi leadership, which decided to face the challenge with unwavering resolve instead of shrinking away. We have learned from the experience of the last five years that unresolved fights tend to be very costly in the long run, as we will have to deal with recurrent fights over and over again. It can be understood from Maliki’s words that he came to realize that the decision to disband or exterminate illegal military entities should have been made a long time ago.

At this point neither side is happy with the results and I think that both have made up their minds to go to war because each one thinks his side is closer to winning and has greater backing from the public than his rival. However, I believe that Sadr is making the mistake of thinking that what worked for previous battles would be equally effective in future ones. I strongly think that if a final battle is to take place, it will unfold with a bitter defeat for Sadr militarily and politically; the balance of power by far favors the state in spite of the difficulty of the situation.

The Iraqi leadership represented by Maliki is standing before a historic opportunity to strengthen the foundations of the rule of law. This opportunity has been made available by the decision of the Shia to renounce and expel the extremists amongst them, a decision that was long avoided because of sectarian considerations that were proven wrong later.

Not only is the end game at hand, it looks likely Sadr’s movement will be destroyed. And we can see evidence that things are coming to a head as Iraqi forces are surrounding Basra strongholds again today (see here).

Also of interest is how the other Shiite groups are playing it against Sadr. Sadr’s main rival is a cleric named Hakim (sp?) who had a rival militia which was integrated into the Iraqi security forces. His group notes that the only ones bearing arms against Iraq is al-Qaeda and the Mahdi.

Finally, Ralph Peters is royally PO’d with the lies and misinformation coming from the SurrenderMedia and notes the Iraqi forces are operating 95% as required, which is much better than America did in its history.

13 responses so far

13 Responses to “End Game On With Sadr Should Bring Sadr’s End”

  1. truthhard2take says:


    William Lind, of the Center for Cultural Conservatism, and a brilliant strategist, tells us why al Sadr’s defeat of Maliki at Basr proves that Iraq has no viable government at present. Mata, who believes America has right to stay in Iraq against the wishes of the overwhelming majority of Iraqis, because puppet Maliki says so, should take note.

  2. truthhard2take says:

    One way to insure the violent opposition , or support thereof, of 95% of the Iraqi people, is to convince them the current government is ,(“The assassination attempts are clearly attacks on Iraq’s) government, now a US ally.”

  3. truthhard2take says:

    Reading the hapless Peters’ examples, one almost wishes for his own reputation’s sake,the American forces he cites so often as abandoning posts before ultimate victory, were also fighting under the impress of a puppet government itself “formed” under occupation.

  4. 75 says:

    Doesn’t say much for Sadr’s forces, then, does it?

  5. WWS says:

    People with no knowledge of history (such as T2T) have no clue that desertion has always been one of the biggest problems armies in all places and all times have faced. This is why such an emphasis is placed on it. Referencing the Civil War, it wasn’t just federal armies that had the problem – the Confederacy did as well.

    Here’s a typical method of dealing with the problem – Maliki’s gov’t, as far as I’ve heard, hasn’t gotten anywhere these methods yet:

    “On March 29, 1865, Lt. Gen. Nathan Bedford Forrest, accompanying the division of Brig. Gen. W. H. Jackson on its march from West Point and Columbus, Miss., to Tuscaloosa, Ala., crossed the Sipsey River over a bridge. Two deserters were apprehended by the provost at this point, which were presented to Forrest himself. The general convened a drumhead court-martial, which found the two guilty. Forrest ordered immediate execution by firing squad, after which the bodies were laid out beside the road near the bridge while the columns passed. He then ordered a detachment to be posted at the bridge to watch for other deserters (covering two ferry crossings near the bridge, and naming the same), executing any such individuals in a like manner at the bridge. The bodies of those executed, and presumably any others shot, were to be buried near the bridge two days after the sentence had been carried out.”

  6. truthhard2take says:

    Let me just put this down to cut to the quick of you hapless
    war supporting imperialists.

    I might have detached preferences regarding the players
    in the various Iraq rivals for power, but I know better than to believe my preferences are anything but narrow and provincial guesswork compared to whom the Iraqis prefer, Sunnis and Shias alike.
    (The Kurds are tangential, most not even wishing to be part of Iraq.)

    On the other hand, Strata and Bush dupes side with any combination of forces that they persuade themselves are friends of the occupier.

    The foundational truth is this: Iran has ties to all these players, and Iran now has the leverage to insure, through balancing, giving and taking away levels of aid and co-operation to them, overtly and surreptitously, that no matter who has the balance of power in Iraq in the end, Iran will be the winner, not America.

    Deal with it.losers. I couldn’t care less how you do, I in fact have more
    empathy for the Iraqi Sunnis insofar as hoping they can get a fair shake from the Shia.

  7. 75 says:

    Truthy’s backing Iran. Must be a Cubs fan.

  8. crosspatch says:

    “William Lind, of the Center for Cultural Conservatism, and a brilliant strategist, tells us why al Sadr’s defeat of Maliki at Basr proves that Iraq has no viable government at present.”

    That is absolutely hilarious. I mean really. Anyone buying that load of crap deserves to have their voter registration revoked. They are too dumb to vote.

    Sadr’s defeat of Maliki? When? Where? Just saying that doesn’t make it real. Iraqi forces put the smackdown on the JAM. Iraqi and coalition forces are in control of Basra, and control 1/3 of Sadr City. Sadr is the one who begged for a ceasefire, probably the first time in history the “winner” of a battle has ever done so, and Grand Ayatollah Sistani has TWICE told him to shut up and do as he is told by Maliki and the central government.

    Sadr’s defeat of Maliki indeed … that’s rich!

  9. crosspatch says:

    AJ, are you really posting as Truthtard/Ken/whatever just to entertain us? Pulling our legs a little? It just seems a little too obviously lunatic left … all the “correct” rhetoric and stuff but making no sense whatsoever.

  10. crosspatch says:

    Hey, “Truthy”, even the AP can’t ignore the progress in Basra any longer.

    “Basra’s `dark ages’ lifting as hard-line grip weakens”

    Sadr’s defeat of Maliki!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

  11. 75 says:

    Iraqi Forces Surround Al-Sadr’s ‘Office Block’
    April 18th, 2008
    From those friends of terror at Al Jazeera:

    From Sweetness and Light…

    Iraqi police patrol the southern city of Basra.
    Iraqi forces surround Sadr office
    Friday April 18, 2008

    Iraqi troops have surrounded an office block used by supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Shia al-Mahdi Army, in the southern city of Basra.

    Al-Sadr’s supporters criticised the move on Friday as a “provocation”, but the government said its operation was aimed only at recovering offices unfairly occupied by political groups.

    Sheikh Harith al-Athari, the head of the Basra office, said: “The police and the army have laid siege to Sadr’s office in Basra.

    “They have also stopped people from attending Friday prayers. The forces, backed by armoured vehicles, have asked us to leave the building.”

    General Abdel Karim Khalaf, an interior ministry spokesman, said the operation had been approved by Nuri al-Maliki, the prime minister.

    He said that al-Maliki had ordered government troops to take possession of all government buildings in Basra within 48 hours.

    Journalists in Basra reported that al-Sadr supporters had refused to leave.

    Salah al-Obeidi, a Sadr spokesman from Najaf, in central Iraq, called the move “a provocation that will induce people to resort to force”.

    “The objective of the security forces is to further aggravate tensions and it shows the government’s claims that it is not targeting Sadr supporters to be false,” he said.

    The al-Sadr office in Basra is in an old Olympic committee building…

    This could get very interesting.

    And of course it is long overdue.

  12. Cobalt Shiva says:

    William Lind, of the Center for Cultural Conservatism, and a brilliant strategist

    Full stop right there, buddy.

    John Boyd was a brilliant strategist. Lind is a blowhard hack who is utterly unashamed to take credit for Boyd’s work.

  13. truthhard2take says:

    You’re an unknown, as far as can be determined. On the other hand, notable military can be quoted saying worse about Petraeus.