Feb 19 2008

Obama Peaked Too Early

Published by at 2:55 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Obama’s spell is wearing off and fast. His Sesame Street view of the world is starting to sound pretty silly. At one point I was willing to listen to his plans to heal America – but he has no plans but only syrupy platitudes best suited for a children’s TV show. That is why I sometimes call him the “Big Bird” of American politics – he has no plans just weaves a fantasy about Nirvana on Earth. When faced with the likes of Bin Laden and company his vague comments seem more naive than hopeful.

And I was sure most people would sour over time with his endless and mindless commentary. I have sat through many post primary speeches and the more I heard the more I went for the remote control. It’s like watching my little pony movies with my young daughters – I can do it but I do it to share something with them, not because the plot is engaging!

Gallup’s daily tracking poll is showing Obama’s bubble is bursting as Americans look for substance Obama us unprepared to provide.

Today Obama is tied with Clinton and heading southward (if you understand the math with these three day rolling tracking polls). Click the image above to see Gallup’s assessment of the shifting race for the Dems. My guess is WI will not be a big win for him today – if he wins at all, but more on that tonight as the results come in.

What I do see is the Clinton political elite machine ramping up and twisting arms to steal delegates from Obama prior to the convention:

This strategy was confirmed to me by a high-ranking Clinton official on Monday. And I am not talking about superdelegates, those 795 party big shots who are not pledged to anybody. I am talking about getting pledged delegates to switch sides.

What? Isn’t that impossible? A pledged delegate is pledged to a particular candidate and cannot switch, right?


Pledged delegates are not really pledged at all, not even on the first ballot. This has been an open secret in the party for years, but it has never really mattered because there has almost always been a clear victor by the time the convention convened.

But not this time. This time, one candidate may enter the convention leading by just a few pledged delegates, and those delegates may find themselves being promised the sun, moon and stars to switch sides.

Promises – or threats. Both work, but threats work better in the DC power struggles. My belief is Obama will have the heart of the left, but Clinton will wrestle the levers of DC power and pull out the delegate win. She cannot afford to lose, while Barack has more opportunities in later races. It is do or die for the Clintons – which means their opponents must die (politically speaking of course).

These two forces will spell Obama’s slow undoing. He is losing the interest of America and the Clinton’s will force him to suffer a death of a thousand smears. And all McCain has to do is build off the success Bush has established in the war on terror, war in Iraq and safety of this nation to win out as the only serious candidate.

Update: In a recent post I noted Hillary could win WI tonight. I have also noticed an intriguing analysis on some leftist blogs that show Hillary outperforms the post election polls by a wide margin in primaries (WI), while Obama out performs the polls in caucuses (HI). Today is a good day to test this theory!

Update: Looks like I am not the only one predicting a Clinton win in WI tonight – Ed Morrissey feels the same as I do.

9 responses so far

9 Responses to “Obama Peaked Too Early”

  1. kathie says:

    I can’t see a damn bit of difference between the two. Obama is better at saying the same thing. Hillary’s democratic machine back in the White House would be a disaster as their left overs have been for Bush.

  2. kathie says:

    I can’t see a damn bit of difference between the two. Obama is better at saying the same thing. Hillary’s democratic machine back in the White House would be a disaster as their left overs have been for Bush.

  3. kathie says:

    Gallup says that Obama is gaining in all categories.

  4. AJStrata says:


    Follow the link. How could Obama gain in all categories and drop over the last few days?

  5. kathie says:

    I don’t know AJ, just repeating todays Gallup. Or maybe I don’t want Obama to lose, because I just can’t stand Hillary, and I would love, love for the Clintons to lose. Also the polls have been wrong. So the game is on…will be fun to watch tonight. I’m hoping you’re wrong.
    PS AJ you’re the scientist, I’m an gut voter!

  6. Playing Hardball…

    If the blacks were going to be mad if the super delegates stole the election from Obama, just imagine what they will think if this happens….

  7. kathie says:

    OK AJ here it is from “Freerepublic”

    Obama Gaining Among Middle-Aged, Women, Hispanics
    Posted by gridlock
    On News/Activism 02/19/2008 12:44:08 PM PST · 23 replies

    Gallup ^ | 2/19/08 | Jeffrey M. Jones – Gallup
    Also running even with Clinton among core Democrats PRINCETON, NJ — The momentum in the Democratic nomination race has clearly swung toward Barack Obama. Not only has he won all of the post-Super Tuesday contests, but he has steadily gained in Gallup Poll Daily tracking to the point where he has overtaken Clinton as the national leader for the first time, holding a statistically significant lead in each of the last three tracking poll results. (snip) Obama’s standing has improved among most Democratic subgroups over the past several days. But one of the more substantial shifts has been the changing…

  8. WWS says:

    But Obama isn’t just going to lead the country, he’s going to save our souls!!! Michelle said so, so it must be true!!!

    One question I do wonder about – if We are the Change We’ve Been Waiting For, then why have we been waiting since We’ve been here all along?

  9. Wisconsin Exit Polls…

    Jim Geraghty reports:
    I’m hearing that after two waves of data, Wisconsin looks like a blowout in favor of Obama, in the neighborhood of 60 percent to 40 percent.
    AJStrata might have spoke too soon about Obama peaking too early.
    If the exit polls…