Feb 09 2008

Divided Dems Heading For Crack-Up II

Published by at 1:31 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

In a previous post I noted the Democrats cannot avoid a crippling crack up this election as Hillary and Obama run neck and neck to a convention (which was idiotically moved up by the dems to Labor Day – to late to heal the wounds of a brokered convention). Al Gore’s Presidential campaign manager has made it clear – if the party machine decides the Dem nomination (which is not almost unavoidable) she will leave the party:

Donna Brazile was quoted as saying, “If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party. I feel very strongly about this,” Brazile said.

I don’t blame her. The Super Delegates ARE the eilte party machine and they will be torn between the power of the Clintons and the grass roots support for Obama. My experience tells me the political power of the Clintons will win out (they will do anything to win) – which means the Obama supporters could be the ones who bolt and find solace in the other maverick camp – the McCain camp.

Major Update: Another democrat makes clear that Super Delegates need to be taken out of the equation for Dem nominee:

If the institution that exists to resolve disputes within the American center-left does not operate according to democratic principles, then I see no reason to continue participating within that institution. If that institution fails to respect democratic principles in its most important internal contest of all–nominating an individual for President of the United States–then I will quit the Democratic Party. And yes, I am perfectly serious about this. If someone is nominated for POTUS from the Democratic Party despite another candidate receiving more poplar support from Democratic primary voters and caucus goers, I will resign as local precinct captain, resign my seat on the Pennsylvania Democratic State Committee, immediately cease all fundraising for all Democrats, refuse to endorse the Democratic “nominee” for any office, and otherwise disengage from the Democratic Party through all available means of doing so.

Again, I do not blame these people one bit and, as an ex-democrat, appreciate their frustration. But there is really no choice for the Dems – the Super Delegates rules are fixed and cannot be un-fixed now. As Hillary points out Kerry and Kennedy would be her super delegates if they were to follow who won the state. It ain’t going to change folks.

Everyone should note that with the Super Delegates counted (before today’s results) Clinton has a 61 vote lead. Take those out and Obama has a 13 point lead. And it will be Obama’s supporters who will be the most disappointed and likely to bolt.

9 responses so far

9 Responses to “Divided Dems Heading For Crack-Up II”

  1. crosspatch says:

    If there is not a clear winner before the convention, then Hillary wins. I say this because:

    One of Obama’s main sources of support in the primary elections are independent voters. There are no independents at the convention.

  2. Terrye says:

    This is going to be tough no matter how they decide it, there will be a brawl.

  3. Frogg says:

    Sen Bill Nelson D-FL, and a Hillary endorser, was one of the first to call this an upcoming train wreck. He said today, that if Hillary ended up the winner he thought she jwould put Obama on the ticket as VP. I’m sure he meant this as the only solution to keep everyone happy. He said Obama would not have to put Hillary on the ticket and wouldn’t.

    Frankly, I’m not sure Obama would want to be on the Hillary ticket. If she screwed things up in her Administration it would hurt his own chances of becoming President after her. I think he would wait it out for a later run.

    Either way…….I don’t see either of them giving up without a big huge fight.

  4. Frogg says:

    What does Howard Dean mean when he says “some arrangement would be made before the convention to avoid a brokered convention?”

  5. lurker9876 says:

    Heh! Where will they bolt???? Tehehehe!

    Frogg, great question!

    Think Dean’s thinking of making one of them the President and the other a VP.

    In that case, which one of them will be the President and the other a VP?

    They are both Alinsky disciples so it wouldn’t make much of a difference, right?

  6. Cobalt Shiva says:

    What does Howard Dean mean when he says “some arrangement would be made before the convention to avoid a brokered convention?”

    Florida and Michigan’s delegations get seated, and just happen to put Hillary! over the top.

  7. Whippet1 says:

    Considering the decision to not seat the Florida and Michigan delegation, if they were to seat them I would still think Obama’s coalition would put up a huge fight and claim they were cheated.

    Definately a huge problem for the Dems if Obama stays close.

  8. rrostrom says:

    Regarding Howard Dean’s comment: Michael Barone observed that brokered conventions were common in the days before cheap, convenient long-distance communication. Even in the 1930s, long-distance phone calls were awkward and expensive, and telegrams were composed in “telegraphese” (of course). The party factions had to meet physically, face-to-face, to work out their differences.

    Since the 1950s, cheap long-distance telephony, air travel, and now the Internet allow that process to be worked out before the convention.

    The complaint that the convention system is “not democratic” goes back to Woodrow Wilson. At that time, there was talk of a national primary election (primaries were newly introduced at the state level). Wilson predicted it would be enacted in a few years.

    The present hybrid mess is loosely representative, but not “democratic”. Caucus-selected delegates represent far fewer “voters” than primary-selected delegates. And what about Michigan? The party voted to sanction Michigan in advance, not favoring any candidate. Clinton won Michigan by ignoring the party rule against campaigning, which Obama honored. Should she benefit from that? Should Michigan voters be disfranchised? The Democrats could have much fun settling that mess.

    Of course the superdelegates could resolve the mess by declaring for Obama; they aren’t formally bound to anyone, AIUI.

  9. And some want us to have a brokered convention, which would have exactly the same effect.