Feb 04 2008
McCain’s Big Day Is Coming
McCain has FL and is zeroed in on NY right now. If he takes CA that is 3 out of the 4 big states. And of course McCain will have a huge number of other smaller states in his column as well come Tuesday. While national polls are an average of the feelings in each state (supposedly) and therefore don’t reflect what will happen in each state, they do indicate which way the trends should or could break. McCain has kept growing his national lead over Romney – now at 19%. That tells me a large state like CA, while apparently close, will probably go to McCain with most others on Tuesday. That means the entire GOP race could be basically over this week – barring some major unforeseen event.
On the Democrat side Obama is still clawing his way to parity with Clinton, hoping to catch her in enough states this week to keep the Democrat race open. He has a chance, but the Democrat establishment (with their super delegates and other rules on who gets to be represented in their nomination process) have a stronger grip on their party than the GOP does. If this report he is losing support among women holds up then he has a chance. Right now it looks like Hillary will eek out more states.
It will be a fight to see which independent revolution (left or right) wins and which one doesn’t – as I noted yesterday. I think the decision is over for the GOP. The purity wars launched by an impatient hyper-partisan crowd starting with Harriet Miers has taken its toll. Now it is a question of whether the Dems are fed up with their hyper-partisans as well.
Update: According to the latest CNN poll it looks like Obama may have caught Hillary:
Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton is losing ground to Sen. Barack Obama in a national CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released on the eve of critical Super Tuesday presidential primaries and caucuses.
…
Obama, who trounced Clinton in January’s South Carolina primary, garnered 49 percent of registered Democrats in Monday’s poll, while Clinton trailed by just three points, a gap well within the survey’s 4.5 percentage point margin of error.
I will be back home after results come in from the East Coast. But what I am watching is CA tomorrow. That state is going to play a huge role in deciding the nation’s future this year.
All the agonizing over choosing between McCain and Romney looks like a useless waist of energy. Both are light years better than the Dems and there are only marginal differences between the two of them. And “electability” is hardly an exact science.
The media “opinionators” are also entertainers who must gin up issues for ratings. And this is part of it.
The McCain opponents have only themselves to blame now. They are late to support Romney, having first chased after Guilliani then Thompson. Had they backed him early-on, he might have been the front runner now.