Jan 16 2008

Another Primary, Another Winner

Published by at 6:40 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Well, well. Looks like I finally called on on Michigan (odds are you get one right sometime). Looks like Romney not only won, but he won by one of the largest margins of all the first three well publicized races (this is actually Romney’s second win). The 9 point romping of McCain is impressive. That is the same margin Huckabee had in Iowa. Each winner has had huge wins and huge losses now.

The big question is do we get four winners or just three, with Rudy taking FL? If so then this will be a Presidential nomination for the history books – and we get a front row seat!

I can tell the media is going to try and salvage McCain, but the fact is he won this state in 2000, and a 9 point second place after a big win in NH is nothing to celebrate. McCain has a problem with mainstream conservatives because is maverick style brings him down on the wrong side of too many critical issues. You can’t vote against tax cuts, for embryonic research, for McCain-Feingold and not lose support. He gains points for his position on the War on Terror which only Rudy Giuliani can compare too. He loses big time on closing GITMO and bringing our enemies into our legal system. That is just were McCain stands – too far outside the broader GOP governing coalition. His stance on immigration is one place where he probably gains support.

I am sure the press will try and pick Huckabee up as well – since his smart mouthing has not won him anything since Iowa. But the more moderate and less flamboyant candidates may start to rise up once we get out of NH and Iowa and into the larger states (checkout the inside numbers by Jay Cost at RCP). My bet is Rudy’s numbers take a bounce back up this week in FL with McCain taking a drubbing. All eyes on SC and FL, those polls will be interesting.

5 responses so far

5 Responses to “Another Primary, Another Winner”

  1. Rich says:

    You are impressed that Romney wins his home state? Great analysis. Please answer me this question. Do you think the one issue conservatives will abandon Guilliani over abortion. You bet they will.

  2. VinceP1974 says:

    You can’t abandon what you never had.

  3. MerlinOS2 says:

    In Michigan if it were a closed primary Mitt would have taken Mc by a major (41-27) margin.

    What I also noted is that there was a major outlier poll in Ca which showed a quantum leap of support for Mc that didn’t make sense even with the NH win, just to big of a jump. Need more polls to see if it is a trend after the Mi results

    Another poll also way out of the trend shows Mc doing another big jump in NJ.

    Until that poll came out Rudy just plain owned the state by such a margin that it made no sense for the others to even waste funds trying there. Again need more polls to confirm the single outlier and Mi could chill Mc’s jets.

  4. MerlinOS2 says:

    In Ca Rudy was about +15 now its Mc by 15 from Survey USA

    In NJ it was Rudy over +40 in fact in a poll he showed over +50 now some unknown almost Monmouth/Gannet shows Mc +4

  5. Post-Michigan Analysis…

    (I know Donald covered this already, but here’s my take.)
    Obviously you’ve all read about last…
    Popularity: unranked [?]……