Jan 15 2008

Michigan, Nevada Predictions

Published by at 7:07 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

My predictions for today’s next round of primaries are more likely than not to be wrong. I have learned a lot about the electorate so far that is interesting. In Iowa it was confirmed that the party stalwarts are heading in different directions than the party leadership. For the Dems it was towards the center and away from Clinton, for the GOP it was away from the center and towards the religious core of the party (as opposed to the fiscal, national defense side).

In NH things turned around a bit. The voters had a much larger say. For the Dems that was still towards the center, a bit of a fresh face. I see Hillary’s win as more of a temporary stop to her slide than coming from behind. She had a massive lead which is currently being held to a small lead by older women voters. The GOP learned its leadership (political and talking head) is going right while voters are heading to the center.

So where will Michigan go? Well here is some purely off-the-cuff speculation with no analysis behind it (which is why it is as easily going to be wrong as it is right). Michigan is like NH, more centrist than ideologue based with open primaries. It should actually follow NH – I don’t think it will.

I think it just may be Romney’s turn to win one. McCain has more media following than anything else when it comes to conservatives. What I saw in NH was a hint from the electorate that the way to the White House is not through purity to the ideologues. McCain could win again, as he did in 2000, but I don’t think it is a given. If McCain does win again I think Romney is doomed. It also means conservatives will have to rally around a single strong option to win back (not beat) McCain support to someone who is moderate but not as liberal as McCain. A tight race will not be a slam dunk to future victory.

Michigan’s row over their primary date means Clinton is the only name on the ballot. What would be wild would be to see another voter revolt of some kind like a write in campaign. I am sure Michigan dems are angry they have no choices on the ballot. Maybe Hillary loses to a no name? I am not sure but I think electorate is in the mood to send bold messages to the pols.

Nevada for the Dems is more complicated I think. First off it is back to a caucus situation and NV is not known for being much of a maverick. The process will be dominated by Senate Leader Reid who seems to be in the Clinton camp. But again I think the caucus goers might make this a surprise result and put Obama back on top. The GOP held their caucus in NV already I believe – Mitt’s only win so far.

So my predictions are Obama and Romney, but let’s face it folks – the voters are fed up and they are not going to follow old patterns. And the polls are truly useless this year. What I want to see is turnout numbers and where independents go.

9 responses so far

9 Responses to “Michigan, Nevada Predictions”

  1. Klimt says:

    I’m afraid, because the Dems have no one to vote for, they will vote for ObaCain. I’m still betting on a Romney win, though.

    A cool site to place bets on is: http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/aav2/menu.jsp

    They have McCain way up now…

  2. KauaiBoy says:

    Don’t feel so bad about your predictions—-lots of “pundits” are still scratching their heads over why their predictions of a Dallas Cowboy victory never materialized; perhaps they were just wrong as the world does not play out on paper. So when the votes don’t add up, I suggest blaming the voters, after all who could predict the behavior of the flakes that make up the American electorate.

  3. sjreidhead says:

    Please don’t fall into the trap that all Republicans are conservative and all conservatives are Republican. The hard core bunch make up maybe 30%, but I think even less than that. The mistake everyone is making is assuming (ASS U ME) that the GOP is 100% conservative. I don’t care if a Republican is liberal, moderate, or conservative. I’m interested in the GOP Brand and winning elections. Hard core conservatives do not win elections. The only way elections can be won is with an appeal to those dastardly ‘moderates’.

    SJ Reidhead
    The Pink Flamingo

  4. owl says:

    There has to be a good joke in this mess. Just think……all the Pugs have disagreed since Miers over an armload of issues. When they threw Bush under the bus the glue dissolved.

    So do we all agree on one candidate that we do NOT want as President? Yep. McCain. So the joke is on all of us.

    I followed the rules and took the test that the Anchoress had up yesterday. The question was something like ‘which one does your gut trust to be the most powerful man on the planet’. My gut said Rudy. Gut surprised me with Obama in second and Romney in third.
    Now my brain says that can’t be true because I like Fred and would never vote Obama. Oh well, it has all turned into one bad joke.

  5. VinceP1974 says:

    I would never vote for Ronulian Paul, McCain, B Hussien Winfrey, The Cackle, Silky Pony.

  6. SallyVee says:

    AJ, I’m glad you too have days when you don’t make much sense ; )

  7. pjo says:

    Local news was saying the economy was the leading factor on the voter’s mind here. Hint, Romney was calling us a one state recession. They also indicated that there was very little crossover vote from the Democrats, also the mayor of Detroit was very quiet about getting people out to vote. So I don’t expect McCain to win, though with all of the automated phone calls from Mit’s camp, I was half a mind to vote for McCain out of spite.

    Finally, had to drag the wife out to vote and told her she had to vote for Rudy or Fred.

  8. Buckland says:

    Since I’m late for the Michigan prediction, here’s a post MI prediction:

    The race is over.

    Huck hasn’t shown he can break 20% in a primary. McCain has shown that Republicans don’t like him any better than they ever did. Rudy is still trying to find his coronation without the rough and tumble of the campaign. Thompson is — I haven’t a clue what Thompson is doing — but what he’s not doing is winning. Or breaking 5%.

    Just a month ago all prognostication had the same answer — with the front loaded primary system we’ll know a winner by Feb 5th. Now all of the talking heads are using the word ‘chaos’ to describe the Rep race. Nobody knows who will emerge and it may go all the way to the convention.

    That obviously means that the end is in sight. Mitt wins in SC and FL and is the annointed one after Super Tuesday.

    Republicans don’t like long drawn out nomination battles. Mitt is a compromise candidate, but is now nearly unstoppable.

  9. wiley says:

    AJ – Dems moving to the center??? HRC is solid left, Obama is even left of her & Edwards is, well, a fraud & a loon. So, technically you can say dem voters went slightly center b/c HRC beat Obama in NH, but give me a break.

    Buckland – I like Mitt, but “nearly unstoppable”? He’s probably in best position at moment, but it will still be a rough ride ahead, and maybe all the way to the convention.