Jan 02 2008
My Iowa Predictions
Here is what I see happening in Iowa tomorrow…. Nothing really. A bunch of party stalwarts are going to do a round of purifying their parties of those evil and traitorous moderates – which means the results from Iowa will be so out of sync with reality they will destroy the myth Iowa should be first in the nation ever again.
I predict turn out will be low and there will be very few independents or new participants. I believe that will give the Dems a very close Edwards-Obama-Clinton run because that is the way these folks stack up in the fevered swamps of the left.
I think the GOP is actually going to be hard to predict, because the GOP stalwarts are so conflicted and grasping to find anyone but Rudy to support. What will be interesting to see is how high Rudy and McCain actually end up after skipping Iowa. If it is the far right stalwarts they will do poorly. As will Romney, though he has been doing some impressive pandering lately. The more stalwart the crowd the more for Paul and Huchabee. The less stalwart the more Romney and Thompson will get. But right now I could not tell you which way the GOP is going to go. I would not be surprised to see all four end up close to each other – creating another interesting but useless result for what will happen in NH next week. That at least has voters and possibly independents and new primary voters.
What happens in Iowa should stay in Iowa – and probably will.
AJ,
I don’t share your hunch that Giuliani is the “electable” one. The Dems he would attract don’t measure up to the Repubs he would lose. And remaking the Republican Party in his image is hardly benign.
The GWOT might be better “managed” by McCain, Thompson,or Romney, each of whom shows more character.
More character? Romney flips and spins so much it makes me dizzy. Thompson was my senator and I monitored him closely. He did not want to embrace the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and was lukewarm about conservatism at best. I was not sorry to see him go. As for McCain, I’d vote for him if I had to but I am disturbed by his adamant Gitmo is torture position and McCain Feingold. He’s got a bad temper and would be easy to make look like a fool. I think Giuliani has shown a lot of character by rejecting the Saudi prince’s money after 9/11 and in refusing to sling mud. Who cares about Iowa? It’s not reflective of the rest of the country.
Georgeann King,
“Romney flips and spins so much it makes me dizzy”- Care to be specific? His moving to the right side of the “human life” issue shouldn’t make you dizzy.
Thompson has moved right. Well and good!
Giulianni’s refusing to sling mud- When you are covered with mud, it’s best to be quiet.
I think that it is wonderful that anyone can state without equivocation that they(He, She, or perhaps in my case It) are for a candidate….
I am for the only Sane one Fred….
I feel most comfortable with Fred too.
I don’t reveal my candidates, I only observe what is going on with all of them.
But I have been saying for a long time what AJ has about Iowa and NH for very good reasons.
Based on past numbers plus growth somewhere over 85,000 will do the Republican pick out of a state of about 3 million. Some stats show 45% to be self identified Evangelical Christian and the state self identified as Populist.
Then next you have NH which is left / libertarian leaning.
So by that Iowa is biased toward Huck and NH is biased toward Paul.
In essence to appeal to voters, Republicans have to tailor their message a bit off from their mainstream message and it is a balancing act to do enough to appeal in those states without alienation of your national base.
The two states do not combined have the breadth of issues the country has due to their less than representative industrial/financial/other industry makeup. Also as the Dem party rightly points out their racial makeup is over 95% white which under represents all minorities, not just blacks.
So for me the two states are more of a contest zone for Dems side candidates and a two state handicap start for the Republican candidates. The first truer contest is likely to be South Carolina to more readily judge national strength. Keep their primary dates if they wish, but replace both with more diverse but evenly politically balanced states. And I mean more diverse in both race issues and policy issues.
As many of you know I follow hundreds of blogs and the general impression I am getting is that many are disappointed in their view that Iowa will likely keep Huck alive beyond his shelf date and possibly dispose early of Fred.
The Fred support I see is wide based and reasoned with well argued points and is not any way like the PaulBot followers.
As Instapundit Observes
[Fred] Thompson is running the kind of campaign — substantive, policy-laden, not based on gimmicks or sound-bites — that pundits and journalists say they want, but he’s getting no credit for it from the people who claim that’s what they want.
I can honestly say I have not made up mind who I support. I can see good and bad in all of them After all, they are human.
I had high hopes for Fred and I still think he would be way better than Hillary, but the truth is Fred is very much like McCain. They were good friends in the Senate and voted very much like. He has done the same thing Romney has done, he has said what he thinks people want to hear.
That bothers me a little, but then again that is politics.
Huckabee does not freak me out. I think the elites do not want him because he is not one of the chosen few. I think they rail against him in part because his ascent has nothing to do with them and they do not like that. They like to think they run everything, including who people vote for. But Huckabee is not a right winger, if you doubt that just listen to the ranting and raving from the rightie blogs and pundits where the man is concerned.
I don’t really care about the whole McCain Feingold thing all that much. I don’t think how much money people on politics is the same as freedom of speech. I don’t think the whole thing worked out like it was supposed to, but I think the overheated rhetoric about the Bill of Rights being in jeopardy is silly. The truth is Americans somehow elected Presidents before TV ads and all the rest of this crap.
I like Rudy and I think Romney would do a decent job as well. But I think the reaction to Huckabee is just silly and the thing to remember is that Republicans need to beat Democrats, not each other. Even if Huckabee is eventually finished {and I think he will be} people need to tone down the rhetoric. If all those Huckabee supporters decide to stay home in 08, you will see a repeat of 06…only worse.
And I think we should remember too that the blogs are an echo chamber. Those of us who spend time on the internet talking about this stuff are not average ordinary voters.
Observations about latest points being made.
Have seen a couple of predictions off oddball sites for Paul to come in 3rd over Thompson and McCain.
Fred is disputing the politico story as a dirty trick.
Subtle and not so subtle talking down of Fred by the MSM but look for news on Hunter and the crickets chirp.