Dec 08 2007

NIE Becoming A Howling Joke – UK Guardian Confirms The Three Amigos Of State Produced Rogue Opinion

Published by at 12:04 pm under All General Discussions,Iran

As the SurrenderMedia tries to shore up the NIE on Iran’s nuclear, which is failing to convince anyone of import that Iran is now cuddly safe, they have gone well into science fiction and exaggeration. Everyone knows that T=three State Dept Amigos who authored this propaganda stunt were anti-Bush hangovers from the Clinton administration. And everyone knows the Three Amigos Of State have little-to-no experience in intelligence gathering, processing or analysis. This has been reported over and over again.

So when The Guardian claims one of the Three Amigos Of State is an expert on intelligence it is clear this is more Hollywood than national security, and all one really bad joke:

But pivotal to the US investigation into Iran’s suspect nuclear weapons programme was the work of a little-known intelligence specialist, Thomas Fingar. He was the principal author of an intelligence report published on Monday that concluded Iran, contrary to previous US claims, had halted its covert programme four years ago and had not restarted it. Almost single-handedly he has stopped – or, at the very least, postponed – any US military action against Iran.

What an imagination! But also how truly enlightening. I can only guess that this piece was coordinated with the Three Amigos of State or their allies – because no one would confuse Fingar as this lone hero expert saving the US Intelligence Community from all those career analysts who don’t agree with him! In fact, given this looks to be a propaganda piece to shore up the NIE and its authors, I find it stunning it admits Fingar “single-handedly” opposed the conventional wisdom on Iran.

This is so Hollywood you can detect the made for TV movie lionizing Old Tommy Boy and the Three Amigos already! The hero of the left has stopped America from attacking Iraq!

Oh pullleease. But at least we are getting further confirmation that this NIE was not a consensus report and clearly was a rogue propaganda effort. Whether Three Amigos are rogues or heroes history (and possibly the courts) will determine. But of the Guardian is accurate, the NIE may go down in history as the most boggled attempt to cook intelligence by bush-league (no pun intended, because these clowns are not in Bush’s league) amateurs to attempt a propaganda coup and influence elections.

How bad will this be for the Three Amigos and the far left? With it becoming clearer by the day the report is not a consensus NIE the determining factor in the fall will be how inaccurate was it, and what information was rejected or dismissed by the Three Amigos Of State to create their unique world view of Iran. If the NIE is seriously flawed and there is clear evidence Iran has a nuclear weapons program of ANY kind on-going, the Three Amigos are open to charges of attempting to aid an enemy of this country in accessing nuclear arms which could threaten the American people.

Yes, that is very close to treason. But aiding the enemy out of stupidity is not a defense against treason – it is simply an example of Darwin’s law of natural selection. Aiding the enemy incidentally in order to gain personal political power is not a defense against treason either. It’s down this: was the NIE so grossly inaccurate it could have – if not questioned by critics – led the US to expose itself a serious nuclear threat? If so then the actions of those who brought us to the brink of this exposure and risk will be brought to justice.

So, what are other saying about the NIE? Well it looks pretty bad for the Three Amigos Of State. The Israelis are not even hesitating in stating the NIE is wrong and that they have the intelligence to back it up (something the Three Amigos do not have – there is no way to prove Iran is lilly white without the inspectors they refuse to allow in).

John Bolton – hated by the far left but with better credentials than the Three Amigos of State – is also openly stating the NIE was a political propaganda effort using cooked intel. The level of confidence in his conclusions do not reflect a good future for the Three Amigos Of State. And more and more people are coming out with sound and reasoned skepticism on the NIE. Professionals in the Intelligence community outside the US are not so measured, they are slamming the Three Amigos for insulting the intelligence of the world and the profession it attempting such a clumsy and obvious media coup effort.

I think the Guardian has done the world a service in exposing how three rogue officials from the State Department tried to pull a fast one on the American people. And by confirming these Three Amigos Of State did this on their own they have allowed us to focus our attention and investigations on them and them alone.

Addendum: I seem to be in good company in my assessment of the historic blunder this NIE represents (H/T Curt at Flopping AcesM).

The recent national intelligence estimate that concluded that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 is just about the stupidest intelligence assessment I have ever read.

My own view is that the authors of the report were fighting the last war. No, not the war in Iraq, but rather what they believe was Vice President Cheney’s efforts to go to war with Iran. This report surely takes the wind out of those sails. But that was last year’s unfought war. Nobody in Washington has seriously considered attacking Iran since Condolleezza Rice and Robert Gates replaced Cheney as the foreign policy power behind the throne.

Whatever the agenda and whatever the motive this report may well go down in history as one of the most dangerous, misguided and counterproductive intelligence assessments in history.

There are those who think they are very clever and of superior intellect – until they one day go too far and prove how wrong those conclusions were. I think we are seeing a truly bungled effort – because it did not take into account the rising force of the blogosphere and the tens of thousands of technical, political and scientific experts that now have blogs and the ability to respond to such shenanigans in real time.

This kind of staged media event might have worked in the 1990’s, but to get false stories past literally thousands of well educated and deeply experienced eyes out here in the internet requires a very sophisticated and subtle hand. This NIE is not sophisticated and its proponents and authors are not nimble in response. They have been trying to dismiss critics instead of answer their criticisms – an apparent effort to divert attention from something problematic. And all that does is bring on even more intense scrutiny from the experts on the internet – because to fail to respond is always the final scene in the first act of a blogswarm when it is about to uncover a fraud.

6 responses so far

6 Responses to “NIE Becoming A Howling Joke – UK Guardian Confirms The Three Amigos Of State Produced Rogue Opinion”

  1. kathie says:

    I think that Bush was smart to let these guys hang themselves. Now they can be gone…..everyone knows why.

  2. Terrye says:

    I still think a lot of people are over reacting.

  3. Terrye says:

    For one thing, no is saying Iran is cuddly safe. The American people know that even if the Iranians stall this program for awhile they are still enriching uranium, they are still wanting a bomb. The report does not say Iran is cuddly safe.

    The idea here is that people who hate Bush would deliberately put this report out so that he can not bomb Iran, even though Bush never said he wanted to bomb Iran. The idea is that these people would put this report out knowing Iran could test a bomb in a couple of years making them look stupid…but they did it anyway to screw Bush who will be out of office in a year or so.

    The idea is that Bush wants the Iranians to have a bomb factory. Bush wants to bomb Iran. Bush wants the world to know that his policy thus far has been a complete failure in regards to Iran and so any possibility that Iran might have even paused for thought is a direct slap in the face to Bush. And Bush wants to ignore this NIE report and go in there guns a blazing anyway. And no one on either side of this has any definitive proof one way or the other.

    I am sorry, but I do not understand the reaction to this report. Why would this have to be seen as undermining the Bush administration? And how is it good for Republicans to have something like impending war with Iran on the front burner in an election when people do not want another war?

    I have no idea what the truth is. Like I said before I think it is very possible that the Iranians still have an active nuclear program and the report is wrong. But I also think it is possible that the Iranians were afraid of Bush, but were also afraid of appearing weak. In any event I do think they intend to have that bomb someday. And this report does not contradict that notion.

    The whole point is that Iran needs to be transparent in the dealings with the international community. If they were the truth would not be something people had to argue about, they would know what was going on.

  4. the struggler says:

    “I do not understand”

    “I have no idea what the truth is”—Terrye

    “I believe you”—The struggler

  5. kathie says:

    Terry the problem is not what Bush would or would not do, or what Iran would do or not do. The problem is that the NEI was meant to be political statement to undermine the Bush strategy for political gain for the Dems. Nuclear weapons are not the stuff of a political game.
    From Northeast Intelligence. Read here.

    The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iranian Nuclear Weapons
    Submitted by Sean Osborne on Thu, 2007-12-06 00:42. Special Reports read more

    Assessment B of the November 2007 NIE clearly states (capitialization added for emphasis): “WE CANNOT RULE OUT that IRAN HAS ACQUIRED FROM ABROAD — or will acquire in the future — A NUCLEAR WEAPON or enough fissile material for a weapon.”

    By Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Military Affairs

    5 December 2007 After careful analysis most recent unclassified version of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iranian Nuclear Weapons (NIE)submitted to the administration in November, titled “Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities,” I have made the following assessments:

    • I can only estimate that this NEI had within its estimation process certain political motivations which garnered more weight than real-world collected intelligence.

    • This NIE’s “Key Judgements” are a gift to the 2008 Democrat presidential candidates in that they repudiate the continuing intelligence estimates on Iranian nuclear weapons ambitions during the Bush Administration.

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