Nov 20 2007

Massive Migration Of Iraqis Back Home Signal War’s Success End

Published by at 9:00 pm under All General Discussions,Iraq,Syria

What does it tell us if hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees are returning to Iraq?

Update: I guess we can add another metric to the mix of indicators showing a path to victory in Iraq:

Civilian casualties are down 60% across Iraq since June, Smith said, and the figure for the capital is even better — 75%.

60-75% reduction since June, imagine that. Some people just can’t let go of their dreams of an American defeat. – end update

The liberal news media like to pretend they are experts in everything. They can barely grasp most things in life, let alone master them, butt they have their egos to prop themselves up – so they wax expert on all things. OK, but it is becoming laughable as the news media continue to pretend the Iraq war is not coming to a successful conclusion. One obvious sign, which has been evident for months, has been the steady decline in violence. OK, so the media finally woke up after 4 months of getting beaten on the head on that one statistic.

But there is another statistic which is also important – the number of terrorists killed and captured, and the amount of weapons caches seized and destroyed. This information is also regularly released to the math challenged journalists. As the violence has gone down, these other metrics have been rising:

On Nov. 5, the forces under Hertling’s command, in combination with Iraqi troops, launched a long-planned operation called Iron Hammer, which is targeting al Qaeda cells in a region of northern Iraq the size of Pennsylvania.

Hertling said the operation has been tremendously successful so far, seizing 400 al Qaeda terrorists and other extremists, as well as 79 arms caches, including “ammunition, homemade explosives, rocket-propelled grenades, about 500 RPGs, 50 RPG launchers, a variety of machine guns, over 100 heavy and light machine guns.”

Hertling said that of the 400 terrorists his troops have detained, 200 are still undergoing questioning about the al Qaeda cells operating in the region.

“They are giving us some very good intelligence on the makeup of those cells — who the leaders are — and we’re continuing to use that information for intelligence-driven raids to continue to go after those organizations,” he said.

About 22 percent of the arms caches discovered by Iron Hammer, Hertling said, were discovered because of tips from local citizens.

These numbers come from just one region of Iraq. I lost an article in the sea of good stories I scan to see which ones I want to post, but it noted the amount of material discovered this year is already double the amount found last year. And the snowball effect of the intel being captured. It seems the Surge was not some random force deployment, but it actually exploited a strategic map of terrorist Zarqawi (the al-Qaeda In Iraq leader killed last year) to basically roll up al-Qaeda and its logistics train:

A map drawn by Al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi — who was killed last year by U.S. forces — turned up last December in an Al Qaeda safe house and essentially gave U.S. war planners insight into the terrorist group’s methods for moving explosives, fighters and money into Baghdad.

“The map essentially laid out how Al Qaeda controlled Baghdad. And they did it through four belts that surrounded the city, and these belts controlled access to the city for reinforcements and weapons and money,” said Maj. Gen. Bob Scales, a FOX News contributor who recently visited Iraq.

“And [U.S.-led forces] simply made the decision to reduce these belts one at a time, and essentially what that did was it choked off Al Qaeda’s access to the city. And once that was done, Al Qaeda had no alternative but to leave the city, to leave the belts and to retreat into the city of Baquba,” Scales said.

In Baquba they found a death trap. But this is not the only major sign we can find that the war is ending. The most critical sign is the apparent signal to the Iraqi refugees who fled the country that it is now OK to return home. And they are returning in huge numbers from Syria:

The figures are hard to estimate precisely but the process could involve hundreds of thousands of people. The numbers are certainly large enough, as we report today, for a mass convoy to be planned next week as Iraqis who had opted for exile in Syria return to their homeland. It is one of the most striking signs that not only has violence in Baghdad and adjacent provinces decreased dramatically in recent months, but confidence in the economic and political future of Iraq has risen sharply. Nor is this movement the action of men and women who could easily reverse course and turn back again. Tighter visa restrictions imposed by Damascus mean that those who are returning to Iraq cannot assume that they could quickly retreat again to Syria if that suited them. This is, for many, a one-way decision. It represents a vote of confidence in Iraq.

Why are hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, many with Baathist ties and one would assume some power and money, be streaming back into Iraq all of a sudden? What signal was given through the tribal or sectarian grapevine things in Iraq were quieting down enough to bring families home and to start their lives up again? These people may be looking at the sea of news stories coming out of Iraq on the progress. But given this mass exodus from Syria I would gather much more is at work here.

But whatever the reason, we now see three major indicators the war on Iraq is ending. We see huge drops offs in violence, violence now laid solely at the feet of al-Qaeda. Every bomb that kills Iraqi Muslims is now an attack from al-Qaeda. No one is being duped by the liberal media spin this is the fault of America. We see large numbers of dead and captured terrorists. The rest are fleeing.

From the terrorist cells we find we gain a wealth of intel which leads us to more terrorists, weapons and intel. We see a wave of concerned citizens leading us to the terrorists and their caches. We see the ever increasing amounts of weapons being seized and destroyed.

And now we see this massive migration of Iraqis coming home. These are not the signs of an endless war, an endless quagmire. These are the signs of a conflict ending. And they are all pointing to a huge US-Iraqi victory and a stunning defeat for Bin Laden’s Butchers.

12 responses so far

12 Responses to “Massive Migration Of Iraqis Back Home Signal War’s Success End”

  1. kathie says:

    A commentator on Fox news said that until we see people coming back, because those who left are the Doctors, people with money and education, we can’t say that we are winning. Well from her point of view, we can now say we are winning, or maybe, we have won.

  2. crosspatch says:

    The Democrats are going to need to sabotage this victory fast if they have any hope at all of winning this for their terrorist friends.

  3. crosspatch says:

    “BAGHDAD – Iraqi army soldiers killed two suspected insurgents and arrested 154 in different areas of Iraq during the past 24 hours, the Defence Ministry said.”

    Holy moley! 154 arrested in 24hrs! Sounds like the roll-up of a pretty substantial network.

  4. ordi says:

    Where are the trolls? LOL

    Where are the trolls and the Dems going to attempt to move the goal post to this time?

  5. ordi says:

    As Freddy Mercury use to sing

    Another one bites the dust
    Another one bites the dust
    And another one gone and another one gone

    Coalition Forces Kill Top Mosul al-Qaida Leader, Find Weapons, Detain Five

  6. ordi says:


    Did u follow the link? If you did not get it I meant Another terrorist bites the dust

  7. crosspatch says:

    I misread something you said. My bad.

  8. Terrye says:

    I think Kathie is talking about Nina Easton. I heard that too. She said that until the people with money and means and education come back it is not a done deal. This might be true, but I kind of think some credit should go to the folks who stuck it out myself.

  9. gwood says:

    Since this war, like all wars, is being fought on both military and psychological battlefields, I believe the key metric has been and will continue to be the percentage of the over-all number of attacks that pertain to suicide attacks. Terrorists become just another imminently defeatable foe when they cannot utilize their supreme weapon of demoralization. I still believe this is why many on the left adopted a defeatist attitude. The suicide missions convinced them that this particular enemy was invincible.

    We have been observing for some time now that fewer and fewer jihadis are willing to die for a losing cause, and bin-Laden’s last communication pleaded for more willing martyrs, a sign our enemy is very aware of their Achilles heel.

    Great post AJ.

  10. WWS says:

    Not only are fewer and fewer jihadis willing to die for a willing cause, but there is now very little money left to pay them to carry out car bombings. (several recent stories have indicated that many car bombings and other attacks have been carried out for hire) Followed the link in Ordi’s post about the Mosul AQ leader being killed – what jumped out at me is that he was reported to be the one who bought the explosives and other material personally, ie he was the money man – meaning that he was not just any leader, he was a vital link in the financial chain that supported the entire organization in that area.

    Terry, a thought on your comment – I too appreciate the ones who “stuck it out”, but I think we can gain an important insight by thinking about just who left and who stayed. By all accounts (the blog Iraq the Model had some reports on the process) it was difficult and expensive for any Iraqis to go to Syria, no matter how well connected they were, and as the numbers increased the Syrians treated them like crap, even the ex-baathists. Again, I refer to the reports on “Iraq the Model”, in which the writer attempting to get to Damascus was kept in what was basically a Syrian prison cell with 40 other Iraqis, almost all respected professionals, simply because they were all Iraqi and the Syrians were sick of Iraqis. Point being, it was not an easy process and even when it worked it cost the person/family trying a lot of money in fees/bribes to Syrian officials.

    Why is that significant? Because it means that only people with significant resources, ie the middle class and upper middle class, could even attempt it. The poor people with nothing could never hope to attempt this way out, and although that’s sad, it means that most of those who stayed did so because they had no choice. Also, many professionals left when AQ and other groups began targeting them for atttack because of their percieved influence. Since a working economy cannot function without a viable middle class, the return of this group is one of the best indicators possible that Iraq truly is about to revive.

  11. ordi says:


    You are forgiven. 🙂

    Have a Happy Thanksgiving