Oct 06 2007

Is Iran’s Meddling In Iraq Destabilizing Its Own Regime?

Published by at 8:19 am under All General Discussions,Iran

Could it be that Iran is over reaching in Iraq? Iran is not uniformally Islamic Extremists, in fact a good portion of the people would like to remove the Mad Mullahs and their Napolean-look-alike Presidential puppet. And the fact these Mad Mullahs continue on a self destructive path of nuclear ambition is bringing the weight of the world to bear on them. Even france is saber rattling in the face of a nuclear armed Iran.

The fact is Iran’s meddling in Iraq is increasing, as are US and Iraqi efforts against the Iranian incursions:

Iran has significantly escalated its involvement in Iraq, “raising the heat” by supplying more sophisticated weaponry that is used against U.S. targets and undermining progress made by the current U.S. troop increase, Iraqi National Security Adviser Mowaffak al Rubaie said today.

The number of detained Iranian agents and intercepted Iranian arms shipments this year represents only the “tip of the iceberg” of Tehran’s activity in Iraq, Rubaie told editors and reporters at the Post. “What we have arrested is a peanut,” he said. Iran’s meddling has increased particularly since the U.S. and Iran reached a stalemate after tense talks in Baghdad in August, he said.

The linked WaPo article is full of one-sided pessimism. It only covers minor setbacks and the usual frustration and concern when Iran plays these deadly games. What it doesn’t cover is a look at the fractures inside Iran. I find it interesting Iran has openly stated it needs to focus on “internal threats”:

Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said on September 29 that the “main responsibility” of the corps now is to counter “internal threats.” He added that the IRGC will confront any threat that might undermine the achievements of the Islamic republic.

Jafari’s comments are regarded by some analysts as a warning to domestic critics of the Iranian regime.

Jafari, who was appointed commander of the IRGC in early September, also said that the all-volunteer Basij militia will fall under the IRGC’s command. The Basij has reportedly been involved in a number of attacks on students and intellectuals. Jafari said those forces will adapt to meet current threats. Jafari said the threats against Iran have become increasingly complex, adding that, “We don’t have the right to remain silent.”

Here’s the rub for Iran: they too have a Sunni-Shiia split in their country. And one thing that both al-Qaeda and Shiia extremists have been doing in Iraq is trying to ignite a Shiia-Sunni war. It may be that Iran, in participating and supporting the killing of Sunnis in Iraq, has actually started the battle inside their own borders? Take this story as an example:

A top lawmaker condemned on Thursday the assassination of a Shia cleric in southern Iran. He called the murder a futile attempt by the enemies to shatter the unity among Iranian Shias and Sunnis.

The Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee rapporteur Kazem Jalali said the U.S.-led assassination has been aimed at creating discord among the Iranians.

“”Islamic Republic of Iran has always been a victim of terrorist acts. Murdering innocent people in Iran, organized by the enemies, started after the Islamic Revolution,”” he said.

The MP added the enemies of Islam are seeking to sow the seeds of discord among Sunnis and Shias in Islamic countries and the world witnesses the evidence of such a conspiracy carried out by the occupying forces in Iraq.

Nice spin for the brain dead masses, but the rest of us living post 1910 can see this as a crude attempt to divert attention from the act and its probable cause. It would seem the probable cause is growing sectarian clashes inside Iran if this is the act of Sunnis on Shiites. Given the blood spilt across Iraq by Iranian-backed Shiite fascists and al-Qaeda backed Sunni fascists it is not surprising the sectarian anger did not stop at the border of Iraq-Iran. There have been hints of internal power struggles (here is a PajamaMedia post on an apparent power struggle at the top of Iran’s ruling class). But I am wondering if something more on the grass roots level is about to explode on Iran. We shall see I guess.

Side note: here is an interesting WaPo article on an Irania-US citizen who works for Radio Free Europe and who was caught up in the confrontation with America.

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