Sep 07 2007
Momentum Is A Factor In Iraq
Too many people, but especially politicians, lawyers and journalists, have forgotten the concept of momentum and acceleration – and how it applies to public opinion. Momentum is the phenomenon that says once a thing is in motion, it requires force to deflect it or reverse its motion. Left on its own it will continue on its way. The liberal conventional wisdom in Iraq was Iraq’s momentum was carrying it into a failure that was unavoidable. All the force we could apply on the ground would never change the course of Iraq. Thankfully for the Iraqis and America these people were dead wrong. The vector of Iraq has turned, significantly, as the Wall Street Journal points out today:
We’ll get to that report in a moment. What’s more important is to note the changes that have taken place in Iraq, all of which indicate that the “surge” is working and that we are at last on our way toward a positive military outcome. As General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker prepare their testimony to Congress later this month, it’s worth pointing to a few indicators:
• There were 30 “multiple fatality” (usually suicide) bombings in August 2007. In August 2006 there were 52.
• There were 120 daily attacks by insurgents and militias last month, down from 160 in August 2006.
• 60,000 prisoners were being held by the U.S. and Iraq as of last month, up from 27,000 a year earlier.
• Iraqi security forces currently number 360,000, up from 298,000 a year ago.
With all due respect, there are even better indicators. We are chasing al-Qaeda from their strong holds which once ringed the capitol of Baghdad and were choking of political progress. The fact al-Qaeda is killing as it is chased into the hills and soon out of the country is not surprising. They are a one trick pony – they kill and maim. I have tons of posts on the changes seen in various areas of Iraq, but here is just one example of how the areas we have focused our attention on are seeing even greater changes:
Still, the improved situation here comes as some relief to the U.S. military, which not long ago had counted an average of 10 to 15 attacks a day in Ramadi alone; now, there’s about one attack a day, and no Americans have been reported killed in the city since mid-May (versus seven in July 2006). Elsewhere in Anbar, five Americans were killed in July, one more than in June but far fewer than the 19 in July 2006.
So which way is the momentum pointing now? Prior to The Surge Anbar Province was only an example of what was possible. al-Qaeda had moved to Diyala province and established their second capitol city of the modern caliphate in Diyala’s capitol city of Baquba. Their first capitol city in Anbar’s Ramadi had been lost to the changing tide. Since then Diyala and many other provinces have seen the same wave that washed over Anbar come through and clear out al-Qaeda. Diyala is now an up and coming Anbar – where a US President could visit next spring to see the incredible changes now crossing Iraq.
We know which way the momentum is pointed – towards success and away from failure. And only a naive fool would wager a few thousand blood thirsty and despised al-Qaeda terrorists could apply enough force to deflect the will of 25 million Iraqis backed by 360,000 Iraqi security forces and 160,000 of America’s finest. 10-20,000 terrorists on the run do not have the ability to deflect such numbers who are now determined to exterminate them.
So now we need to look at the concept of acceleration – which is also occurring in Iraq. Acceleration is the snowball effect. Momentum is the direction; acceleration is the phenomena of picking up speed. In the case of Iraq the changes are spreading wider and occurring faster. The country seems to have hit critical mass as the numbers now openly opposed to al-Qaeda and ready to work with the central government have covered just about all of the country. Of the 18 or so provinces Anbar and Diyala were the last of the two big holdouts. With these two areas changing course the country is no longer stuck in a violent circle but now progressing along a common path.
And I think the democrats understand this – it is their liberal base and media enablers who are failing to grasp (as usual) what has happened. This is not ‘happening’ or ‘going to happen’. It has happened. The full impact of this change in momentum has yet to be realized, but we are accelerating towards the day those results will come forth. Liberals, totally oblivious to what is going on they desperately try to hold onto their snapshot viewpoints that they froze to last year. It is a classic mistake by people who cannot view things in the long term. Those who “live here now” fail to see the forces and eddies that direct human events. And they fail to recognize how human will can rise up and change the direction of fate when enough people are brought to bear. That is why they never did or will appreciate what happened in Iraq.
The momentum in Iraq is 180 degrees and in the opposite direction from the dark days of 2006. More and more of the nation are now on a common path to a brighter future. There will always be dead enders and those who fantasize Iraq can be turned by a ragtag bunch of thugs whose intellectual prowess extends only to thinking about different ways to butcher people in large numbers. To destroy is easy – to create is the hard part. Anyone can rip up a tissue, but who can make one from scratch? It is a simple analogy – but it is valid. al-Qaeda can destroy, it cannot build or create. And because of this inability to provide for the people it has become the enemy of the people of Iraq. And now Americans are seen as the protectors. The tipping point is past. Now the only question is who will be the ones too blind not to see it. Who will be the last to get a clue?
Good stats and info AJ; well done!
Can’t wait for the Traitor “Bootlicker” to show up, and cry over this info: “It’s not twu, it’s not twu, you’re a liar, America is EVIL, the Jihadis are winning because of Bush, please I want the Jihadis to win so bad so they can turn me into one of their pet goats….”
Also, his rectally-manipulated sock-puppet, “THECENTERISABUNGHOLE” has totally diappeared off the net; another Anti-American, Pro-Jihadi Leftist Lunar Chiroptera, who has run crying and screaming, into the dark, in the face of FACTS!
Interesting, isn’t it?
More bogus statistics from DoD, channelled thru the Strataspherista Propaganda Network:
Wonderful news! May we continue to see more great successes of the surge. Things are most definitely getting better! If and only if we can hold, it will!
And, oh, btw, even those reports that show the great successes of the surge explained those DOD statistics.
Example:
http://biglizards.net/blog/archives/2007/09/civilian_deaths.html
Give it a break, copperhead.
More Bullshit, false information, and Pro-Jihadi/Anti-American Leftist Nutbag Propaganda from “Booklicker”1
First, I’ve been tracking US Casualties in Iraq, since the first day of the war.
Second, “Bootlicker” CLAIMS to have been former Military, or something, supposedly drinking tea with Russian Advisors in the Bekaa Valley, or some such other falacious claim.
Regardless, if he had ANY commonsense, let alone knowledge about Military history, statistics, etc.; you cannot Analyze ANYTHING, in a vaccum, nor without any context, which is what the Moron does.
Regardless, here the CORRECT FACTS; not what “Bootlicker” peddles:
First, we’ve been in Iraq for 55 months, not 53.
Second, you can analyze the Casualty rates on a Calender year basis, or more correctly, on a Full Year Basis; since we into Iraq in March 0f 2003, it makes no sense to stick to a Calender year, because by the end of 2003, we’d only been there less than 9 months; so all Stats, CORRECTLY interpreted, are based upon an Anniversary year.
2003: 46 per month (runs thru the end of Feb 2004)
2004: 79 per month (runs thru the end of Feb 2005)
2005: 67 per month (runs thru the end of Feb 2006)
2006: 72 per month (runs thru the end of Feb 2007)
2007: 85 per month, so far (runs thu the end of Feb 2008)
Additionally, in REAL Stats, updated EVERY SINGLE DAY, and Programmed into an Excel Spreadsheet by myself, and using the SAME numbers that “Bootlicker” uses off of AntiWar.com, by the way, we see the following:
We see that as of This Morning, the Stats are:
Casualties: 3760 Total
Annual Average : 820
Monthly Avg : 68
Daily Avg : 2.2
However, and “Bootlicker” will never admit it, because he’s a blatant, dyed-in-the-wool Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi Leftist Nutbag without a clue as to the Military strategy, Military History, nor even a cursory understanding of Military statistics, and their import, but for the rest of you, I’ll enlighten you:
We’ve suffered, as of this morning, a total of 667 NON-COMBAT related Military deaths in Iraq, out of that 3760 total Casualties: that is 17.74% of the total Casualties falling into Non-Combat deaths, and the causes are related to Non-Hostile Helicopter/AC crashes, Vehicle crashes, deaths by natural causes, drownings, and unfortunately of course, a handful of homicides, and also unfortunately, some suicides.
As someone who wore the uniform, unlike in reality, “Bootlicker”, despite his falacious claims, and who also has dozens of colleagues and friends still serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, the death of any one of our comrades in arms, is painful, and a tradegy.
But in measuring the Military success of not only our own forces, but also of the combat effectiveness of the Enemy, which if “Bootlicker” even had a clue, he would admit was vitaly important, you HAVE to make these kinds of distinctions.
Thus, we have had a total of 3093 KIA’s, as of this morning; not the number of 3760 as is used by Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi morons like “Bootlicker”, and of course, the BDS-traitorous MSM to effect American Public Opinion (notice I said EFFECT, not Affect, on purpose “Bootlicker”; the traitorous MSM, like you, does not Report the news, you, and they, attempt to Shape and spin the news, in order enable the Jihadis, who are your allies and colleagues in attempts to destroy America!)
Thus, the REAL Facts/Stats look like this:
KIA: 3093
Ann KIA: 674
Mo. KIA: 56
Daily KIA: 1.8
Again, for those of us who actually DO CARE about the Troops, and support them (unlike “Bootlicker” and the MSM and other assorted Leftist Anti-American/Pro-Jihadis), every one is a tradegy for a family, or several families out there.
But that’s not what we are talking about, we’re talking in terms of measuring the effectiveness of our own Military, vis a vis the combat effectiveness of the enemy forces.
In older wars, such as the Spanish-American War, Revolutionary War, and even WWI; to have such as high percentage of Non-Combat related deaths, 18% or greater, was not unusual, as disease such as Malaria, Typhoid, etc., oftentimes produced way more casualties than actual combat itself!
But since WWII (and including WWII); thanks to the advent of modern antibiotics, and faster medevac capabilities, etc., that ratio has declined significantly; and to have now, in this day and time, a Non-Hostile casualty rate of 17.76%, of your total casualties, is a stunningly high percentage, and a major indicator of just how ineffective, and uncapable the enemy we are fighting over there really is, in military terms!
Sure, they’re capable of killing people, every day, as we seen unfortunately; and they’re especially good at raping, murdering, blowing-up unsuspecting civilians, baking little kids, slicing peoples faces off with piano wire, and the like.
But as a “military force”, they are effective at all; just the opposite in fact.
Of course, Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi Hate-America-First Leftist Nutbags like “Bootlicker”, will be driven into Apoplexy this straightfoward, frank, and ACCURATE talk, but then again, who cares what a bunch of traitors and seditionists think?
Additionally, as of this morning, we had suffered 1609 IED/VBIED Casualties in Iraq.
That means, that this one, desperate, pathetic tactic, that the Jihadis have in their arsenal, is responsible for 42% of our Total Casualties in Iraq, and 52% of our Combat-related deaths!
Again, taken in context, and analyzed correctly, that’s a stunning statistic.
Absent IDED/VBIED’s, our Casualites in Iraq would basically been halved!
I’ve done most of the work for you all, if you want more, you’ll have to do the research yourself, but if you do comparative analysis, of those numbers, vis a vis US Casualty rates from past Military conflicts the US has been involved in, regardless of length, in terms of a measure of our own Military Effectiveness versus the Military Effectiveness of the Enemy, this is one of the greatest imbalances in Military History, and certainly in Modern Military History, has to rank only behind the Gulf War, in terms of those ratios.
So, except for the Anti-Troop, Anti-American, Pro-Jihadi, BDS-afflicted traitors such as “Bootlicker”, the mainstream Media, and most so-called “Democrats”, and of course, “Bootlicker”, and his rectally-ambulatory Sockpuppet “THECENTERISABUNGHOLE”, this is the PROPER way to view the statistics, and to put them into context.
Mourn every one of our Casualties, and for the families of our brave men and women; but also know, that this enemy, the Jihadis, can only destroy us, due to the Machinations, outright support of, and the Reflexive Surrender Syndrome inherent in traitors such as “Bootlicker”, the MSM, and so-called “Democrats”!
Thanks, Dale for disputing copperhead / soothsayer’s post. Although, he won’t be willing to accept your own accurate facts.
Incidentally, Dale, here is what copperhead tried to tell terrye in the other thread about the Democrats crying “Uncle” over Iraq.
copperhead / bootlicker said:
Terrye-
I understand that you are factually challeneged and not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but the 650,000 figure (as of October 2006, by the way) came from a study done by Iraqi physicians and overseen by epidemiologists at Johns Hopkins University’s Bloomberg School of Public Health (that’s John Hopkins, recently named the #1 medical school in the country). The findings were published in the British medical journal the Lancet, one of the most respected peer-reviewed journals extant (along with JAMA and NE Journal of Medicine).
Who should I believe – the best medical school in the US and most trusted peer review journal in the world – or a mental midget? Hmmmmmmmm . . .
Then I said:
That report has been proven wrong so do not believe that report at all. No, we did not kill 650,000. You have been told over and over and over that this Lancet Report is a total fantasy, fallacy, full of errors; yet, you refuse to believe that this report is a total hogwash.
This shows why this is a bogus report:
http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/052333.php
October 29, 2004
Lancet Report Claims 100,000 Dead as Result of Iraq War
A [b]bogus[/b] report published in the British Medical Journal The Lancet claims that more than 100,000 Iraqi civilians, mostly women and children, have died in Iraq as a result of the US led occupation. The bogus report concluded that death from violence was up 58% since the occupation began. Violence, concluded the mentally retarded and methodologically challenged authors, was now the number one cause of death in Iraq. Most of those deaths, said Timmy, were caused by coalition forces.
When asked about the methodological soundness of using a self-report survey of a population that believes Yassar Arafat is a hero, Jews control the world, the US is in Iraq to steal oil, beheading videos are sexier than porn, and that whenever Abu Musab al-Zarqawi kills a hostage ‘it’s the Yankee imperialist’s fault’, the authors responded by saying, “Timmy.â€
The bogus report goes on to claim that since the Iraqi Ministry of Health reported that the leading cause of death before the invasion was heart attack, this proves that John Kerry ought to be President rather than evil Bush-Hitler. Former officials in the Iraqi Ministry of Health could not be reached by The Jawa Report to confirm or deny whether heart attack induced by torture and/or Mustard Gas were included in the pre-war figures.
Terrye is absolutely correct with her accurate facts.
Give it a break, copperhead. The more you espouse this [b]BOGUS[/b] report, the more it makes you look more and more foolish over time.
Lurker: thanks, and to politely paraphrase an old adage: feces in, feces out!
Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi Tratiorous Jacobite Leftist Nutbags like Soothsay, live in the gutter, and graze on nothing but conspiracy- ladden feces; so how can you expect anything else but that, to be spewed out of the foul little sewers that substitute for their mouths!
Lurker: I’m typing like crazy, and not paying attention to spelling, I”m a work and trying to do two things at once!
The other reason why the Treasonous nutbag “Bootlicker’s” so-called FACTS are more “feces in, feces out”, is that if you go to his own Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi favorite website, Antiwar.org, and follow the links to their DEFINITIVE source for Iraqi casualties during the war, which by the way, is NOT from the completely and thorougly discredited Lefist British Propaganda effort, the co-called Lancet Report; you see that: http://www.iraqbodycount.org/
and the REAL numbers are: 71,302 – 77,852 Min/Max estimated Iraqi Casualties from the War; the VAST majority I might add, over 90%, and probably as much as 97%, have been inflicted by their own fellow Muslims on themselves!
Of course, even one innocent civilian, being killed, by our troops, or the Jihadis, is too many; but again, they are the overwhelming reason why their own people are dying, not us!
Of course, since “Bootlicker” inhabits an Anti-American Leftist Nutbag Lalal-land, where no one is responsible for their own actions, and that White, Christian, Anglo-Saxon, Heterosexual American Males (except himself of course, beacause he’s a dedicated treasonous atheistic Anti-American) are responsible for ALL the evils and ills of the world, even when other people do it to each other, well hey, it all makes perfectly good sense now, doesn’t it?
Infantile insults from the statistically challenged.
Violence is down? Only if you go by the Pentagon’s Enron-style accounting. Example gratia:
The Pentagon says sectarian deaths in Iraq were sharply down in August. But the military’s definition of what constitutes a sectarian murder has narrowed:
And right along with the gullible media are the foolish Strataspheristas – who actually believe Pentagon statistics. Keep living in your fantasy world, folks.
“Infantile insults from the statistically challenged.”
Well, nooooooooo, I’ll do it s…..l……o………w……….l………y for you; I know you have a hard time hearing, with your single-bar football helmet on, and the beep, beep, beep of the “short-bus” outside your door…
An “insult” is when you call someone a bad name, or something that’s not true, etc.
Whe I call you an “Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi Leftist Nutbag”, etc., that is EXACTLY describing what you are; hence, it is the Truth, and calling someone what they truly are, cannot, by definition, be an “insult”!
As is also obvious, you cannot in any way, not one single, solitary iota, refute the “statistics” that I related above; so you as is the usual pattern with Ignorant, Taqiyah practicing Leftists such as yourself, when confronted with FACTS, you immedidately move the goal-posts so to speak, and then throw out a completely unsourced, bogus report about the Pentagon supposedly not counting the Yezidi murders, blah, blah, blah…
Typical of a Factually-challenged Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi Leftist Nutbag!
“And right along with the gullible media are the foolish Strataspheristas …”
….and that is pretty hilarious; AJ probably despises me more than any other poster on this board; he won’t even talk to me any more, and I’m no fan at all of his, in my opionion, misdirected interpretation of the ILLEGAL immigration issue; so to label me a “Strataspherista”, is laughable on it’s face!
But keep spinning, even a pig can find an acorn in a pile of dung, on occasion….you may actually get lucky some day, and say something that might actually come close to being correct!
I wouldn’t bet money on it, and I wouldn’t hold my breath, but hell, even a thousand hydrocephalic simian Leftists (an oxymoron, I know, but it works!), if they sat in front of typewriters and banged away for a millenium or two, could churn out the collected works of Al Franken!
Good to see you to stay on top of copperhead. Diagnosis confirmed: Extreme BDS. Prognosis? Not good. Treatment: Ship him out of the country.
Dale:
Hundred of words of invective. $50.00
Total inability to refute my numbers. Priceless.
As for your infantile logic: a completely unsourced, bogus report about the Pentagon supposedly not counting the Yezidi murders
The clearly designated source is former Army Col. Doug McGregor, aka Dr. Douglas A. Macgregor, an independent defense and foreign policy consultant who retired from the Army on 1 June 2004 after 28 years of service, including Gulf War I, Kosovo and Iraq.
A real person, unlike Special-Secret-Agent-wanna-be-Dale-in-Spudlanta.
Bootlicker:
Sigh……….
Hundred of words of invective. $50.00
Not “invective”, Truth: $100.00
Total inability to refute my numbers. Priceless.
Ah, I not only refuted your bogus numbers, but I provided the REAL numbers, that you cannot even comment on: Priceless.
“The clearly designated source is former Army Col. Doug McGregor, aka Dr. Douglas A. Macgregor, an independent defense and foreign policy consultant who retired from the Army on 1 June 2004 after 28 years of service, including Gulf War I, Kosovo and Iraq.”
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH!
You copied that self-servingquote directly off of McGregor’s OWN WEBSITE!
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!
McGregor is such a “genius”, after 28 years in the US Army, he couldn’t even make General, which most Army Officers make at the 21 year mark!
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!
One of the most-self-important, delusional, self-serving, Anti-Bush, NON-independent, politicized, Leftist Nutbag supporters out there, from the DOD.
A complete and utter, self-aggrandizing, self-appointed “expert”; who’s been wrong every step of the way about the Iraq War, the Surge, etc.!
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!
PRICELESS!
PS: stand by for the “hebephrenic” comment, from “Bootlicker”; it’s coming….
Hahahahaha….
What a pathetic, predictable, Moron!
Hahahahahaha….
self-aggrandizing, self-appointed “expertsâ€; who’ve been wrong every step of the way about the Iraq War, the Surge
Wait — you’ve got to be talking about:
George “AWOL” Bush and Dick “5 Deferments” Cheney!!
Gee, I missed soothie’s response.
Soothie you idiot, there is not one medical school backing that report, including John Hopkins. The fact that some PhD with an agenda used the Lancet to launch a report so ridiculous on its face that he became a laughing stock in his own field is bad enough without you showing your ignorance be believing it. If I remember correctly he told them that if they could not publish it before the election in 2004 not to publish it all. I guess he did not want to destroy his reputation for no good reason. I tell you what, if those figures are correct then there has to be physical evidence to back it up. And none has ever been produced.
The truth is you are so gullible that some antiAmerican dictator loving fascist with a pud job for the UN or some such could come along and tell you the US military had wiped out half the population of Iraq and no doubt you would believe it. Common sense be damned.
I am calling you a liar. And I am calling the people who did that study misery pimps who live off of the suffering of others.
BTW, it has been established that Saddam {your hero} killed a lot more people and you don’t give a damn about them so why should I believe you care now?
You tell him Dale.
Dale:
I don’t speak for AJ, but I think that is a safe bet there is someone AJ dislikes more than he dislikes you.
I don’t dislike you, I just think you get a little overheated with the rhetoric on the illegal immigration. And that remark by Newt the other day on the subject was tacky and stupid and not even close to being true.