May 28 2005

Dems Losing Their Middle

The WashPost today has an article that reinforces my position regarding the nominee games going on in the Senate and their potential impact on the 2006 Senate races.

The democrats will continue to lose senate seats if they cannot attract the non-aligned, independent voters from the middle of the electorate in a manner that doesn’t send their far left liberal fringe base into the hands of the Green Party. Note the irony in the label “centris group” to an organization that calls itself “Third Way” – a label no conservative would use. Despite the normal bias of the MSM, the article does show there are signs that this is becoming a real issue inside the party itself:

This is the kind of headline Democrats have come to expect from their opponents: “Middle Class Voters Reject Democrats at the Ballot Box.” But this time, the charge comes from inside the party, in a new report issued by the centrist group known as Third Way.

The 45% of voters who make up the middle class — those with household incomes between $30,000 and $75,000 — delivered healthy victories to George Bush and House Republicans in 2004.”
The study is based on Third Way’s analysis of 2004 exit polls. Among the five principal findings are that white middle-income voters supported President Bush by 22 percentage points. The study concluded that the “economic tipping point — the income level above which white voters were more likely to vote Republican than Democrat — was $23,700.”

Black voters supported the presidential candidacy of Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) and House Democrats by significant margins regardless of their income levels, but white middle-class voters tended to vote more like wealthy voters. “Democrats were not competitive at all among the white middle class,” according to the study.

The report also contained alarming news for Democrats about Hispanic voters. The more Hispanics move into the middle class, the less they vote Democratic.

The democrats cannot afford to lose anymore moderates. But what would a middle class moderate think about them expending all their energies filibustering nominees and not taking care of important issues? We shall see soon, in VA and NJ governor races. Normally I do not see these as real precursors, but the margins of winning (if they stay true to their normal alignment) will tell us which side is gaining or losing ground. Of course a blow out in VA and a tight race or win in NJ for the reps would indicate another massive movement away from the democrats.

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