Jul 17 2007

Is New York City As Lost As Iraq?

Published by at 8:01 am under All General Discussions

Those who deny things are changing dramatically in Iraq need to sit down and ask themselves why they are hanging onto defeat at all costs. The signs abound that Iraq is stabilizing. The massacres of Muslims that al-Qaeda and the Mahdi Malitia inflict are because Iraq is the primary front in the global war against Islamo Fascism. The mass killings of Muslims would be going on whether we were there or not, just as they did in Jordan and Egypt. The Islamo Fascists only know base brutality as their form of political expression.

Look at al-Qaeda’s current ‘strategy’ – kill as many Muslims as they can so as to cower the country back into submission. The brutality of al-Qaeda did something in the Middle East most predicted was impossible – they caused the Muslim street to rise up and ally with America. Take yesterday’s brutal bombings:

Bombings killed at least 76 people in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk on Monday, police said, the worst such violence there in recent memory.

Ethnic tensions have been building in Kirkuk, a city with a mixed population of Turkmens, Sunni and Shiite Arabs, and Kurds, as it approaches a referendum on its future required by the Iraqi Constitution.

No one claimed responsibility for the bombings, but some residents and observers blamed militants linked to Al Qaeda in Iraq who are attempting to sabotage the political process by bringing sectarian tensions to a boil.

This incident is in addition to two schools being destroyed in Iraq and terrorists in Iraqi Army uniforms killing 29 in Dilaya Province. More killing of Muslim women and children here. Yet the SurrenderMedia refuses to recognize that this is not Muslim sectarian violence but a deliberate and bloody effort by al-Qaeda to create civil war in the absence of one. Why does the media continue to admit they are wrong? Armchair ‘experts’ with large audiences seem to always feel their success equates to their omnipotence. But it is a fragile arrogance it seems, one where admitting a mistake is not possible.

It is clear what impact these attacks are having on the people of Iraq. They are shunning al-Qaeda and turning them into authorities every chance they get. More and more we see stories like this one, where tips led to the capture of Islamo Fascists preparing to kill more Iraqis:

Soldiers of 4th Battalion, 31st Infantry Regiment, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry) out of Fort Drum, N.Y., and 4th Battalion, 4th Brigade, 6th Iraqi Army Division, joined forces to clear the villages near al-Owesat and al-Thobat, Iraq, July 14.

During Polar Tempest, tipsters gave the Coalition Forces viable information.

The night began with Soldiers clearing houses, when an Iraqi man who claimed to know where several terrorists lived in the area led them to various places.

The Iraqi man guiding the Soldiers said he believed they had encountered the lead element of a larger group of anti-Iraqi forces. As the U.S. and IA forces continued clearing houses in the area, the man pointed out one of the residents as a terrorist.

In another house a male claimed to know where a high-value target lived. As Coalition Forces followed him, several local residents began to flee in vehicles. They were stopped and detained.

When citizens are swarming to turn in the brutal animals living amongst them this is not sectarian violence – this is moderate Muslims battling the Islamo Fascists. In fact, the fascists are so bad that former allies who once dreamed of Jihad turned on al-Qaeda when faced with it in all its cruel reality:

In the pursuit of an elusive enemy the US loosely labels AQI (Al Qaeda in Iraq), US Green Berets and soldiers in this remote corner of Iraq have enlisted the help of a new ally that they have christened LRF, the “Legitimate Resistance Force.”

It includes ex-insurgents, police dropouts with checkered backgrounds, and former Al Qaeda-linked fighters – all united by a desire to rid Diyala Province of the network’s influence, say US officers.

“A lot of them are former Al Qaeda operatives … but when they saw the stealing, murder, and terrorism, they realized it was not the way forward for Iraq,” says Maj. John Woodward of San Antonio.

The SurrenderMedia continues on in this story to create fictional alternatives as opposed to simply admitting the brutality of al-Qaeda is too much for many who once dreamed of Muslim glory – not of killing Muslim women and children. It seems the only ones who can still stomach al-Qaeda is the news media. Just about everyone else has seen them as the animals they are and provide them little to no credibility as an ‘alternative’ life style.

The Iraqi people, in combination with our military’s own amazing efforts, have turned the tide in Iraq. Jack Kelley notes how our forces are actually not engaging much at all with the enemy in Anbar – once the capitol of al-Qaeda’s operations in Iraq and its center of the modern caliphate they planned to create.

One call was from “Bruce in Upland,” whose son is a soldier currently serving in Iraq.

“I will speak for my son who right now is bored out of his mind in Ramadi, because he hasn’t heard a shot fired in combat now in about six or seven weeks,” Bruce said.

There were about 22 enemy incidents per week in Ramadi in April, said Marine Major Jeff Pool. That’s declined to “about two per week.” (An enemy incident is any type of direct or indirect fire, from a sniper to a mortar or an IED attack.) Throughout Anbar province, the number of “incidents” has dropped from about 400 last December to 155 last week, said Maj. Pool, the public affairs chief for U.S. forces in western Iraq.

“Though these numbers are a substantial drop, I believe them to be artificially high,” Maj. Pool said. The increased operational tempo resulting from the troop surge has increased exposure to the enemy as it has increased the number of al Qaida operatives killed or captured, he said.

“Anbar is returning to a state of normalcy, so I consider the soldier in Ramadi being bored a true measure of progress,” he said.

The Surge is working. Anyone but a stubborn fool can see that.

I like to find comparisons so I can gauge things against a known example. So I decided to look at NY City’s violent crime statistics and see how things compare. Here is what I found. In 2003 (a low crime year after 9-11) NY City suffered 597 murders and 31,253 aggravated assaults. No, they did not suffer any car bombs (though they have had one in their past and who can forget 9-11). But NY City is, thankfully, a ways away from the front in the war with Islamo Fascism. But if we combine these numbers and divide by 12 we find NY City is quite violent when compared to Anbar. The number of ‘incidents’ per month in NY City (and this is NOT counting rapes, robberies and theft) is 2,654. Anbar is 155. Anbar is smaller in population and the 155 incidents include a lot of deaths. More than NY City’s 50 per month – but not a lot more. (note: here is other data with slightly lower numbers from NY City itself)

So as Anbar settles down into a state of violence that is not too far away from that in one of our largest city (and I would wager similar to many large cities in the world, including Moscow and others) are we really going to continue to pretend Iraq is not turning the tide? Are we going to continue to pretend al-Qaeda’s bloodlust is what is behind all the Muslim killings? Are we going to pretend and the Muslim street is NOT turning against al-Qaeda?

Why are people so wedded to their egos (to salvage their predictions) they would allow al-Qaeda to avoid its imminent demise by quitting right here at the end of our efforts? Life and death decisions should NEVER be made in a fit of frustration or anger. Mature professional people know this. No doctor would be halfway through a long an tough surgical procedure and just say ‘its been too long, I am outta here’ out of frustration. Anger is not the basis on deciding when to end a surgical procedure. What makes people think this is any different? Have the talking heads made everything now a Mob-Mentality choice? We started this and we are on the verge of succeeding. And those who keep trying to quit need to ask who are they truly quitting for: America or their ego? I will end this with comments by Micheal Yon and Iraqis in the areas now cleared by The Surge:

It’s really slowed down here in Baquba,” Mr. Yon told Mr. Hewitt in a telephone interview Thursday. “I was just in the TOC (tactical operations center) about 15 minutes before I came on the show, and they were like the Maytag repairmen here.”

U.S. intelligence thought there were about 1,000 al Qaida in Baquba when Operation Arrowhead Ripper began June 19. Those who haven’t fled have been killed or captured.

The smaller part of the reason for the dramatic improvement in Ramadi and Baquba is the change in strategy embodied by the surge. The larger part is the change of heart of most of al Qaida’s former allies.

Mr. Yon was with U.S. troops in the Spring of 2005, when they fought insurgents in the Baquba suburb of Buhritz. Among “the most proficient at killing our people,” he said, were the 1920s Revolution Brigades.

In April the 1920s Revolution Brigades attacked al Qaida and asked for U.S. help. Last week Mr. Yon returned to Buhritz with a leader of the group, “Abu Ali.”

Mr. Yon asked Abu Ali why his group switched sides. “Al Qaida is an abomination of Islam,” he replied. “Cutting off heads, stealing peoples money, kidnapping…every type of torture they have done.”

Sheikh Abdul Sattar al Rishawi, founder of the Anbar Salvation Council, gave similar reasons for his change of allegiance.

The animals of 9-11 have not changed their stripes. It is simply the world is waking up to the depth of their evil. An evil so depraved Jihadists cannot stomach it as it is played out on their own people. It seems, sadly, that the last to come to the realization of how bad the Islamo Fascists are are those people in DC and the SurrenderMedia who fail to understand what is going on and are calling it quits. Bush knew the depth of the evil and that if we faced it, exposed it, brought it out into the open, it would repulse the Middle East. He was right.

19 responses so far

19 Responses to “Is New York City As Lost As Iraq?”

  1. lurker9876 says:

    Harry Reid, Pelosi, and their democrats are just as lost, especially with their so-called “slumber party”.

  2. BarbaraS says:

    The dems are running out of time to lose this war. That’s why they are strenuously trying so hard now. Traitors all.

  3. BackOnEarth says:

    SurrenderMedia?

    Islamo Fascism? (try Islamic Fascism)

    You then provide a single anecdotal example of where violence has diminished and then claim “The Surge is working. ” Amateur hour.

    Then you really up the ante, proving yourself to be supremely ignorant:
    Comparing 155 attacks on troops (in a single WEEK), to the 2100 incidents of agravated assault (per MONTH) in New York? What is this supposed to prove? What the hell was going on in your mind as you wrote that? Amateur hour.

    Let’s see: 155/week times 4 weeks = 620 incidents PER MONTH

    Population of NY: 8 Million
    Population of Anbar: 1.2 Million

    soooo 620/1.2 = 516 events per million
    and 2654/8 = 331 events per million

    So let’s see Einstein, using your own numbers, we can see that you are more likely to get blown up in Anbar than to suffer aggravated assault in NY.

    So yeah, I’d say things look pretty f*ing bad in Anbar, especially when you consider that your crass comparison was between two completely f*ing different stats, One stat was on crime, the other on actual attacks on troops. One case of aggravated assualt (punching your neighbor in the face) isn’t even comparable to a roadside bomb. Twit.

    You are sooooo lame.

  4. AJStrata says:

    BOE,

    LOL! One example? Oh, I have posted more than one.

    But it is clear you are concerned about your inner desire to wish AQ could win. Clearly this bothers you.

    It should. But that is between your ego and conscience.

    I never said Anbar was as safe as NYC. In fact I noted the differences in population. Did you MISS that?

  5. jschultz410 says:

    Anbar has a population of about 1.2 million people. NYC has a population of about 8.2 million people. You need to divide the respective incident counts to get a per capita count to make a meaningful comparison. You allude to this in your post but you don’t actually do the math.

    You state that Anbar has more than NYC’s 50 deaths per month. Per capita you need to multiply that by 8.2 / 1.2 ~= 6.8 times. So the murder/death rate is at least seven times as high as NYC.

    Also, your comparison of the number of aggravated assaults in NYC versus Anbar is a bit ridiculous. The level of police activity and documentation is much lower and the level of lawlessness is much higher in Anbar. I really doubt that people are going to go running to the police every time they get beat up in Iraq. They are much more likely to tell their local militia or sheik, if anyone, if they need / want help.

  6. jschultz410 says:

    Anbar has a population of about 1.2 million people. NYC has a population of about 8.2 million people. You need to divide the respective incident counts to get a per capita count to make a meaningful comparison. You allude to this in your post but you don’t actually do the math.

    You state that Anbar has more than NYC’s 50 deaths per month. Per capita you need to multiply that by 8.2 / 1.2 ~= 6.8 times. So the murder/death rate is at least seven times as high as NYC! And yet you say, “So as Anbar settles down into a state of violence that is not too far away from that in one of our largest city.” Since when is nearly an order of magnitude “not too far away”?!!!

    Also, your comparison of the number of aggravated assaults in NYC versus attacks on coalition troops in Anbar is a bit ridiculous as BackOnEarth pointed out. The level of police activity and documentation is much lower and the level of lawlessness is much higher in Anbar. I really doubt that people are going to go running to the police every time they get beat up in Iraq. They are much more likely to tell their local militia or sheik, if anyone, if they need / want help.

  7. Roberto says:

    Those who point out the folly of the Iraq War “want AQ to win”.

    Using that same hatrack you are using: Those who think America will be attacked by Islamofacists must want America to be attacked by Islamofacists.

    Why do you want that, Mr. America Hater?

  8. lurker9876 says:

    We do not want to be attacked by Islamofascists.

  9. Roberto says:

    We do not want AQ to win.

  10. AJStrata says:

    Folks,

    I KNOW Anbar is smaller in population than NYC. I mentioned that fact (not the actual numbers because I do have a day job) in the post. So, divide 2,654 incidents per month by 8 and you get 331 incidents per day – or twice the Anbar terrorist incidents.

    But talk about getting lost in the details. The point is Anbar is getting close to levels not uncommon for violence in our own cities and is doing this WHILE being the front line battleground.

  11. Nietz195 says:

    If you are going by “incidents” against US troops, then you need the troop population.

    The population of NYC is about 100 times higher than the US troops in Anbar, so if they both had similar rates of violent crime, there should only be 6 troops dead a year in Anbar (6 is 1/100th of 600).

    Going by the troop casualty rate alone, NYC is about 50 times safer than Anbar. Of course, the death rate of civilians is far higher.

    As soon as Iraq becomes ordered enough to actually start counting assaults, then we can include those.

  12. AJStrata says:

    The ‘incidents’ are all terrorist acts, whether aimed at US troops or Iraqis.

  13. Terrye says:

    It is also true that more Americans between the ages of 18 and 24 die in our inner cities than die in uniform in Iraq. It is also true that out of a population of about 25 million Iraq’s overall murder rate is not that different from a lot of other countries. In fact the country with the highest murder rate is South Africa.

  14. Terrye says:

    If the US had not gone into Iraq, do people think that place would be peaceful today? Do they think that Saddam and his sons and their guest Zarqawi and his terrorist friends from the training camps of Afghanistan would all be gainfully employed and doing good things?

    What would they have done about Saddam? Sit back and watch him slaughter his people, rebuild the programs he had mothballed, continue to shoot at planes and rip off the UN?

    I did not want a war, but I also know that there are some people who do not respond to anything other than force. Saying it is just folly without beginning to deal with the realities of the situation is not an alternative plan, it is a fantasy.

  15. BackOnEarth says:

    “So, divide 2,654 incidents per month by 8 and you get 331 incidents per day”

    No, you don’t.

    To get incidents per day, from incidents per month, you would divide by 30 or 31, not 8.

    What you calculated was 331 incidents per million people per month in NYC (since there are roughly 8 million in NYC).

    Anbar has 155 per week x 4 weeks per month / 1.2 million = 517 incidents per million people per month in Anbar.

    Anbar is STILL MORE DANGEROUS… 517 to 331.

    And this is comparing fistfights in NYC to gunfights and roadside bombs in Anbar.

    Dood, u need to check ur maths.

  16. dhunter says:

    The Mainstream media, the Dims, and a few rinos remind me of what’s his name? “Baghdad Bob” standing on the steps of a palace in Baghdad saying there are no US troops in Iraq as they are in fact about 30 meters away and have the place surrounded after having taken the rest of the country by storm. They have come to believe their own propaganda as it is so necesary for them to believe it or realize that they have made a tragic mistake by siding against their own military and it’s success in the GWOT. Unfortunately those who get their news from the msm and only there , are dumbed down to the point of not being able to tell if it’s raining or if someone is pissing on their boots.

  17. The Macker says:

    Obsessing on the difficulties and minimizing the successes in Iraq are a formula for defeat. The Left has been using this tactic from the beginning.

    I believe they are genuinely afraid our effort will succeed and Bush will get the credit and they will be seen for what they are.

    AJ,
    ignore the statistical nitpickers. They can’t understand comparable orders of magnitude.

  18. Nietz195 says:

    It’s hard to say it is statistical nitpicking. The homicide rate of relatively protected soldiers is 50 times higher than the homicide rate of New Yorkers. Civilians are obviously going to be living at least as dangerously.

    The attempt to equate a mass killing as a single “incident” equal to the common assault in New York is nonsense.

  19. […] What kind of idiot protests that the surge is working? “AJStrata,” for one, who wrote this charming piece of tripe which I cannot help but “fisk.” So, let’s get into it: The signs abound that Iraq is stabilizing. The massacres of Muslims that al-Qaeda and the Mahdi Malitia [sic] inflict are because Iraq is the primary front in the global war against Islamo Fascism. […]