Jun 03 2007
Guest Worker Program Still Shows Support
The gnashing of teeth and pulling of hair and the cries of imminent doom and disaster from the far righyt have not been able to kill popular support for the immigration bill and the guest worker program so many immigration hypochondriacs fear to the point of proposing sticking with our current mess even longer. While down a bit, they proposal is not out by a long shot. And support springs back once some simple corrections are proposed.
A slim majority believe in creating a pathway to citizenship, with younger people and Democrats far more open to the idea than Republicans and those over 55.
The number in favor of a guest worker program is almost identical — 53 percent — but on this issue, almost as many Republicans as Democrats back the concept. Those in the Western part of the nation are most supportive of it (65 percent), as are those in urban areas.
…
In the interviews, respondents to the survey also seemed conflicted over whether Congress should substantially increase the number of guest workers permitted in the United States.
The plan was supported by slightly more that half, but approval increased to 64 percent when a suggestion was offered: that the program be limited to industries where a shortage of workers has been identified by the government.
So support springs right back to the 2-1 numbers supporting Bush and his proposals once something is proposed that negates the fear-mongering theories. The Dems and media want to let the far right tarnish conservatism, which the far right is more than happy to do. But the immigration problem is so pervasive and without any easy answer (despite all those proffered by the far right, like enforce the laws – which got us into this state). Americans know this and understand perfection nor Nirvana are going to be coming out of DC. Watch for more polls to come confirming the obvious. This is our last chance to make changes for years to come on this decades old problem. Only those who rampaged against the status quo situation for years are the ones now calling for it to be salvages so that nothing is passed at all. An nobody is really buying that twisted logic.
More here on the poll and the new confidence the bill will pass the Senate
After a week at home with their constituents, the Senate architects of a delicate immigration compromise are increasingly convinced they will hold together this week to pass an overhaul of the nation’s immigration laws, with momentum building behind one unifying theme: Today’s immigration system is too broken to go unaddressed.
…
Public opinion polls seem to support Kyl’s contention that Americans are far more open to the deal than the voices of opposition would indicate. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll released today, 52 percent of Americans said they would support a program giving illegal immigrants the right to stay and work in the United States if they pay a fine and meet other requirements. Opposition to that proposal was 44 percent.
The opposition is waning as the far right goes into hysterical fits. This is not coincidence. The over the top rhetoric has repulsed the nation – who knows something must be done. And a lot just simply don’t want to be associated with the tone and anger on the right. The far right broke one too many times with their ‘partners’ in the conservative coalition. Now that their only answer is to be a poison pill, they have marginalized themselves. Credibility is not something you can win back quickly. Bush is still very credible. His detractors on the right have none left. Watch as the bill passes, and America DOESN’T come to a crashing end.
Aj,
Has anyone bothered to ask as part of the question about a guest worker program “Should a guest worker program be implemented now or should the border be secured first”
I think you would find that there is broader support for implementing the border security before the guest worker program.
I realize there are some that have been rabid about this issue and I think it hurts conservatism as whole being portrayed this way. I will admit that after the President insulting those of us that disagree I was angry, having said that I choose my words carefully and I feel the best way to make a point is in a civil way with facts on our side. In this case the facts and history are on the side against this bill.
Seems like Kyl is on someone’s sh!t list:
http://www.nbpc.net/Miscellaneous/kyl_letter_amnesty.pdf
Woa! That was one powerful letter. I may have to borrow parts of it tomorrow when I hit the phone again.
Thanks for the link Retire.
On a related note to the the people that are upset at Bush. There under no circumstances can there be a scorched earth policy toward Bush at this critical point. Besides the fact that we are at WAR there is something else looming
We COULD have a Supreme Court Vacancy this Summer. THis seat is piviotal because it could put the Court firmly in conservative hands but we must all be united and not weaken the President.
I highly suspect that Judge Stevens will want to go out under a Republican since he was appointed by one. This is his last chance to do it knowing that will happen. DC is already abuzzed that the WHite HOuse is preparing for this possibility. JUst keep that in mind.
Actually AJ, IF we’re telling the absoulty truth here, the “over the top rhetoric” has been coming from you, and your fellow supporters of this bill, including President Bush, sadly enough!
From your latest post “immigration hypochondriacs “, you’re “FU O’Reilly” post; your attacks on Peggy Noonen and Charles Krautman; you’re attacks on everyone here who has not only ask you legitimate questions, but just had the temerity to only disagree with you!
DaleinAtlanta
As to Bush he has to respond. What Bush did was to send a sign he was going to fight back this time. THe right such as National Review and other conservative organs of thought never tried to rein in the dawgs on those that went after Republicans that supported Comprehensive Reform or were a part of the gang of 14(Which worked out well) or on other issues. Rep Cannon among others and Especally Bush were accused of alot of things and had their integrity questioned.
That being said I am ready for the temperature to cool on all sides of this and for all sides from the President and supporters and to those that oppose his vision of immigration reform to setr some ground rules in this.
Brandon said –
Has anyone bothered to ask as part of the question about a guest worker program “Should a guest worker program be implemented now or should the border be secured firstâ€
Why yes someone has. Rasmussen asked a question precisely like that. I am having trouble finding it right now. But I remember very clearly reading it. When I find it, I will post it.
Until I manage to find it, you can enjoy some of the other Rasmussen polls.
–begin quote–
Support for an enforcement first policy on immigration tops the 60% mark in all but one of 33 states polled by Rasmussen Reports over the past month (see State-by-State Immigration Data).
Massachusetts is the sole exception, but even in Ted Kennedy’s state a solid majority (58%) say that the U.S. should enforce existing laws and control the border before considering new reforms (The Bay State also boasts the lowest percentage of voters who believe that tax cuts help the economy).
Wyoming, at 78%, boasts the highest percentage favoring an enforcement first policy.
–end quote–
source for the above – http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/immigration_views
This is an interesting one too.
–begin quote–
A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey conducted Monday and Tuesday night shows that just 26% of American voters favor passage of the legislation. Forty-eight percent (48%) are opposed while 26% are not sure. The bi-partisan agreement among influential Senators and the White House has been met with bi-partisan opposition among the public. The measure is opposed by 47% of Republicans, 51% of Democrats, and 46% of those not affiliated with either major party.
The enforcement side of the debate is clearly where the public passion lies on the issue. Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters say it is Very Important for “the government to improve its enforcement of the borders and reduce illegal immigration.†That view is held by 89% of Republicans, 65% of Democrats, and 63% of unaffiliated voters.
Advocates of “comprehensive†reform have taken to arguing that those who want an enforcement-only policy must explain how they would deal with the 12 million illegal aliens already living in the country. The public reaction to that question appears to be “Why?†Only 29% of voters say it is Very Important for “the government to legalize the status of illegal aliens already in the United States.â€
–end quote–
source for the above –
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/just_26_favor_senate_immigration_plan
But please keep this information confidential. Do NOT tell AJ. He is convinced that those who are opposed to this legislation are the minority.
AJ,
I do have optimism. I think the last major Posion pill we have passed. I think this baby is getting out of the Senate.
The political dynamic is a bill gets passed. Immigration issues as we see here are fought out in major ways rarely for a reason. It brings out the bad and the good and is very emotional and messy. I don’t think either party wants this to go much longer.
On the GOP side, even though the correct things will be said the “base” I am pretty sure that the main contenders want Bush to get something Done to put some Finality on this issue so they don’t have to do it. THey rather be talking FOreign Policy, Fair Tax, etc. SO their words will be moderated.
On the Dem side they have dangers too with their own interest groups and having a GOP President as cover and some of the leading Conservatives in the GOP with them gives them cover to make some hard choices.
I suspect at the end of the day the untold hero of this will be Our Secretary of Commerce that has done the Lord’s work on this.
http://tinyurl.com/323hjm
What we need is a different analogy. Suppose you were to go on a picnic, and had the misfortune of placing your blanket near an ant hill. Immediately you notice ants climbing over your blanket in an effort to reach the basket full of potato salad, fried chicken, and biscuits. What is to be done? You really bear the ants no ill-will, so you take some of the food out and place it to the side, hoping to satisfy the ants by giving them some of what they want so they leave your picnic basket alone. What happens next? Instead of a dozen ants you have hundreds swarming over your entire blanket. They are not satisfied with the morsels set out for them, but come to take it all.
This is exactly what happened when we tried amnesty before; by letting these lawbreakers off the hook, by actually rewarding their efforts, it became obvious that America was a great picnic basket waiting to be fed upon. Their numbers increased exponentially when we fed them.
Unbeleivable, heres John McCain, in some kind of townhall meeting telling a questioner that we might have riots like France if we don’t pass the immigration bill here! What a complete ass. How can you be of that opinion and still want to bring in tens of millions more? Video link here:
http://hotair.com/archives/2007/06/03/mccain-without-amnesty-we-might-have-riots-here/
Here’s another related story over at American Thinker, Su Casa Mi Casa, (Your house is my house).
http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/06/su_casa_es_mi_casa.html
BIGLSU, why does it have to be scorched earth. Bush asked for this fight from his own side. Those of us who believe that this immigration bill is a disaster are going to fight like hell to stop it. If we lose, there is no republican majority in the near future for anything anyway. Remember those who said this was a bad idea in 65 and 86, we were right the last TWO times on this, and now you’re just trying to do the same thing even harder. We will not be quiet, we will not shut up, I’m sending email and faxes and letters to anyone in congress I can. I don’t think this bill will get through the house, Reps are lining up to blue slip it in the house and kill it on procedural rules because all bill with tax law have to be originated in the house. I don’t think it would pass an open vote anyway.
Brandon,
I’m still looking for that poll, but while looking at found this one. And it TOO GOOD to not share.
There was one particular sentence that jumped off the page and made me laugh out loud. I’ll bold that sentence.
And I will bold one other sentence which I consider to be extremely important for some people to read.
–begin quote–
There’s a simple reason the immigration bill being debated by the U.S. Senate is unpopular with voters—the general public doesn’t believe it will reduce illegal immigration. And, in the minds of most voters, that’s what immigration reform is all about.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 16% of American voters believe illegal immigration will decline if the Senate bill is passed. Seventy-four percent (74%) disagree. That figure includes 41% who believe the Senate bill will actually lead to an increase in illegal immigration.
…
Overall, despite a major push by the President and others over the past week, support for the Senate bill has not increased at all. In polling conducted last night (Tuesday, May 29), 26% of voters favor passage of the bill. That’s unchanged from the 26% support found in polling conducted the previous Monday and Tuesday. Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters remain opposed.
…
Some supporters of the bill have tried to suggest it is politically popular by citing polling data for selected features of the bill. However, President Bush yesterday implicitly acknowledged the strong public opposition to the bill by stating that elected officials will need political “courage†to pass the measure. Senator Jon Kyl (R), a major supporter of the legislation, acknowledged in interviews that the lack of support measured by Rasmussen Reports is an accurate reflection of the public mood.
–end quote–
source for the above –
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/just_16_believe_senate_bill_will_reduce_illegal_immigration
And just for the record – you can count me in that group of 41% who believe that this bill will increase illegal immigration.
Well shoot. I can’t find it. 🙁
It is late and I am tired. If I run across it later, I will post it. But the result was as you would expect – secure the border first.
My apologies for not having found it.
Reality check from a commenter on another blog
Hey, I know… Since these illegal aliens are supposed to “get at the end of the line”, that’s great! Based on our CURRENT quota based immigration limits (approximately 25,620 persons per year from each country)…
That means that if you believe the (LOW) estimate of 12 MILLION illegal aliens are here (and that MOST of them are from Mexico), AND we’re only processing 25,620 per year, then it will be about 468 YEARS before anyone who applies AFTER the 12 Million illegals get processed, will be considered for a “green card”. Is THAT what you mean by “compromise”?
If you don’t believe that uncontrolled excess immigration can and will change your society as a whole, please consult with any native american indian tribe for their viewpoint.
With help from A.J. and lately LSUFan, I’ve upgraded myself from gravely pessimistic to guardedly optimistic that comprehensive reform will get cranked through the sausage machine. I feel the beginnings of exhaustion brought on by the Enforcers’ relentless bellowing, 8500 word minimum responses, microscopic examinations of every hair on the pig’s butt, and one prediction of doom after another.
A.J., you closed with something I’m already secretly wondering about… what will the Grim Reapers say when imm reform passes and the world doesn’t end and America doesn’t turn into a writhing leper colony? I wonder how many of these folks still have their Y2K stashes left over… and what’s the shelf life of an MRE anyway?
Back to my other point.
Even if the z card route to citizenship is taken, there is still the bottleneck of green card limits. Thus even those who opt to try for citizenship will still have a multi year wait for processing even if accepted in competition with other new applicants.
Therefore only a small percentage of even the z card holders would reach their citizenship goal, unless future legislation significantly alters the number of green cards authorized.
So all the z cards, H visas L visas and Guest workers end up essentially in the same bucket.
The basic structure for a good law is there, but the specific details of how it is set up defy logic and do not as currently configured really address a true solution to the problem.
“Bush asked for this fight from his own side. Those of us who believe that this immigration bill is a disaster are going to fight like hell to stop it. If we lose, there is no republican majority in the near future for anything anyway. Remember those who said this was a bad idea in 65 and 86, we were right the last TWO times on this, and now you’re just trying to do the same thing even harder. We will not be quiet, we will not shut up, I’m sending email and faxes and letters to anyone in congress I can. I don’t think this bill will get through the house, Reps are lining up to blue slip it in the house and kill it on procedural rules because all bill with tax law have to be originated in the house. I don’t think it would pass an open vote anyway. ”
We shall see. I suspect the blue slip option has been researched by the White House and all those on supporting the bill. Not fearful there
As to passing the House. Prepare yourself to possibily be shocked.
Actually all the convoluted path to citizenship numbers in this bill will almost be a moot point.
The bill as structured and the authorized chain migration per the bill will result in simply bypassing the green card issue simply through the automatic granting of citizenship status to all the anchor babies of the guest workers, z card holders, new illegals following up despite this bill and those who wont “come out of the shadows”.
It is strictly demographics and birth rates that are well documented by the census bureau.
The bill as structured and the authorized chain migration per the bill will result in simply bypassing the green card issue simply through the automatic granting of citizenship status to all the anchor babies of the guest workers, z card holders, new illegals following up despite this bill and those who wont “come out of the shadowsâ€.
It is strictly demographics and birth rates that are well documented by the census bureau.
THe only way to get rid of what is called the “anchor babY” or birthright citizenshop problem is a COnst amendment. I dont see that happening