Mar 28 2007

End Game For Iran

Published by at 8:48 am under All General Discussions,Iran

All sides in the Middle East are being backed into their respective corners. Iran is dug in on their desire for nuclear weapons and have made a series of acts of aggression (and acts of war) with regards to coalition members and Iraq – the latest of which was the abduction of UK Sailors and Marines in Iraqi waters searching an Iraqi boat. This escalation towards war has been all the responsibility of Iran – as noted by the media in from its last supporter in the West – Russia:

There are many indications that in the past 12-13 months, Iran has been intentionally escalating the military tensions surrounding its nuclear program.

The rhetoric of the Iranian political and military elite has become much tougher; Tehran has been flexing its military muscle over the same issue, and has ostentatiously turned down the IAEA and UN Security Council proposals to return to the negotiating table in order to resolve the problem; and finally, the Iranian Navy captured 15 British sailors before the Security Council adopted its latest resolution on tougher sanctions against Tehran.

Many experts believe that Tehran unequivocally declared its claims to regional leadership after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president in the summer of 2005. More than a year ago, he demanded that the world community recognize Iran as a “regional superpower.” Positioning itself like this, Tehran placed its bets primarily on nuclear technologies, strong anti-Israeli rhetoric, and Arab support throughout the Middle East.

Tehran did not conceal its intention to reduce American prestige in Arab eyes, if not to oust the United States from the region altogether. It was convinced that the U.S. had gotten stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan, and would not bother about Iran. This was an ideal chance to portray the Big Satan as a miserable paper tiger.

Tehran, however, has clearly overestimated its potential.

That is a precise statement of Iran’s foolhardy efforts of late. And like many Iran mistunderstood American resolve and resiliency. They confused polls and democrat cries of panic as the core of America. They are not. And the signs are everywhere this may finally be coming to a head. Because the US to is backed into a corner of sorts. It has to pull out all the stops to win this thing or lose it to al Qaeda’s cheerleaders on the political left here. The Democrats’ calls for surrender are actually forcing our hand. And we still have quite a hand to slap Iran upside the head with:

American warplanes screamed off two aircraft carriers Tuesday as the U.S. Navy staged its largest show of force in the Persian Gulf since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, launching a mammoth exercise meant as a message to the Iranians.

The maneuvers with 15 warships and more than 100 aircraft were sure to heighten tensions with Iran, which has frequently condemned the U.S. military presence off its coast and is in a faceoff with the West over its nuclear program and its capture of a British naval team.

Clearly the arrival of the latest aircraft carrier to the region was not a response to the abduction of the UK servicemen and women. The orders to move the carrier task force were cut weeks if not months ago. But it looks like the foresight behind those orders was quite prescient.

The other indication this may be coming to the final act is news from Russia regarding troop movements on the Iraq-Iran border

Russian military intelligence services are reporting a flurry of activity by U.S. Armed Forces near Iran’s borders, a high-ranking security source said Tuesday.

“The latest military intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran,” the official said, adding that the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched.

He said the Pentagon is looking for a way to deliver a strike against Iran “that would enable the Americans to bring the country to its knees at minimal cost.”

He also said the U.S. Naval presence in the Persian Gulf has for the first time in the past four years reached the level that existed shortly before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

Iran’s saber rattling reminds me of that classic scene in Indiana Jones where the Muslim warrior flashes his huge scimitar at Jones who calmly pulls out his gun and shoots the guy. Iran has no defense against our air power and precision bombs. It tooks us three weeks to take out Iraq’s army – the samy one Iran fought for years to a stalemate. And we have no intention or need to invade Iran.

Is this a show of force – you bet it is. And Iran needs to think we will use it to be effective. Which means we will use it if we must. The question now is, as I have said before, is Iran the next Jim Jones on a state level? Are the Mad Mullahs and Ahmedinejad ready to suicide a nation to be with Allah? Saldy I think they are.

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