Mar 10 2007

Another al Qaeda Leader Nabbed!

Published by at 10:11 am under All General Discussions,Iraq

Update: Seems this is another false alarm – but we should be getting closer. – end update

I posted last weekend, as we headed out for vacation, that it appeared a key al Qaeda leader ws captured. It turned out to be one of his key deputies, so I pondered could the big guy be far behind? Seems that was not so bad a guess after all:

he leader of the al-Qaida-affiliated Islamic State of Iraq has been captured in a raid west of Baghdad, an Iraqi military spokesman said Friday.

Abu Omar al-Baghdadi was captured Friday in a raid in Abu Ghraib on the western outskirts of Baghdad, said Brig. Gen. Qassim al-Moussawi, spokesman of the Baghdad security operation. U.S. officials had no confirmation of the capture.

“One of the terrorists who was arrested with him confessed that the one in our hands is al-Baghdadi,” al-Moussawi said.

Al-Baghdadi has been identified in statements posted on Islamic extremist Web sites as the head of the Islamic State, which was proclaimed last year after the death of the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

The surge, which still is not at full strength, is gaining some momentum. There were (and still are) a wide range of possible results from the surge. In the wildest hopes of the liberals here in the US was the possibility things would continue to spiral downward and America would experience a crushing defeat (and the death and mayhem that goes with that). In the middle was the possibility it would not do anything. And on the more optimistic end (when I clearly reside) the surge would start to turn things around. But their is a wildly optimistic side no one will voice yet with any confidence – but it is as a real a possibility as any other and probably not that different in terms of probability to happen as any other. And that is we do not get a domino effect as we see now, where arrests run up Islamo Fascist organizations and groups and slowly turn up key leaders. That is typically called the ‘domino’ effect.

But we could also see the ‘snow ball’ effect, where things accelerate more than expected as support crumbles out from under the terrorists. This is a real possibility because the terrorists have only been able to kill Iraqis for the most part. And Iraqis of all stripes and backgrounds are getting sick of the useless death and destruction. We have seen hints of it. And we can actually measure it if we need to. The latest leader for al Qaeda in Iraq will be replaced, just as this one replaced Zarqawi after his death. It took us years to find Zarqawi. It took us less than a year to get his replacement. If we nab the next one in the span of months or weeks, or if al Qaeda refuses to name a new leader for their campaign in Iraq, then we will be seeing much more than a domino effect.

10 responses so far

10 Responses to “Another al Qaeda Leader Nabbed!”

  1. Snapple says:

    I don’t understand this. I thought that this Islamic state that was set up was some puppet of Iran. Now it seems that it was something to do with Al Qaeda.

  2. Dc says:

    There is an Islamic party in Iraq that is a political party. Most countries in that region..even more democratic ones (if you want to call it that), courts are based in some part upon islamic law. For instance, in can even executed for the crime of converting from Islam to another religion…or…converting someone who is from islam to another religion. That carries the death penalty.

    The Islamic state is an area of land within Iraq (including Bagdhad and surrounding sunni provinces)…that Alqueda and this org have declared or claimed as a state within a state on behalf of themsleves and their cause..for which they have appointed their own current ruler (this Bagdhadi guy). It’s the beggining of a caliphate that Bin Laden and others have talked about for years..and for which all the jihadi recruiting info speaks of (driving all western influence out of the area, bringing down the Kufar govs of the ME and retoring the great arab/islamic empire based on their brand of Islam).

  3. Snapple says:

    Thanks for your explanation, but am I right that Iran is helping this proto-Caliphate?

    Is this just to make trouble for us? I thought Iran had issues with Al Qaeda, which are Sunni.

  4. Snapple says:


    You have a bad link on your “another false alarm.”

    On another topic, I saw that the Russians put that FSB lawyer M. Trepashkin , who tried to investigate the apartment bombings, into even a stricter prison regime. He had followed the trail back to the FSB so they planted a gun on him and put him in prison for revealing state secrets. But he was connected with other regime critics that are now dead and sometimes managed to send out information from prison. The apartment bombings gave Putin an excuse to go into Chechnya. Now they will probably kill Trepashkin in prison. Litvinenko had claimed the KGB trained Zawahiri, among other things.

    See this from 2005:

    And this from March 9, 2007 (won’t be full story)

  5. mrmeangenes says:

    Al Qaeda is going beserk over the announcement: promising the faithful they will see al Baghdadi very soon. Yes, indeed. Very soon !

  6. Dc says:

    Yes, Iran not generally supporting those sunni/AlQueda types. They are supporting shite miltias and groups…such as Sadr against the sunni militias/baathists and AlQueda types. As well, Iran has agents and Quds special ops operating inside of Iraq. They are/were also using the diplomatic offices as a front for helping operations as well as supplying arms/money, new weapons and expertise. There have been iranian gov forces inside Iraq..who have killed US soliders (which technically puts us at a state of war).

    They could possibly align with such sunni groups temporarily on any given issue…it just depends. They are all basically a murderous lot. Neither one has any qualms about killing (each other, themselves or americans). But in general…those “sectarian” killings you hear about…are Mookie Sadrs milita and other Iran backed Shiah militias…going after the sunni/baathists.

    Obviously, with the vast majority of the people in Iraq being shiah…they stand to inherent Iraq under any situation that is remotely democratic. The sunni’s know this too. While Iraq is mostly shiah..not all of them are aligned with Iran. Mookie Sadr is aligned with Iran…but his following is very small (in the larger scheme of things). What they lack in numbers..they make up for in violence/ruthlessness. But, they even go after Sistani’s people.

  7. Dc says:

    I should add to that..there are shiah groups fighting each other as well. (and Iran taking sides on that too).

  8. Snapple says:

    He is some stuff I found out about possible connections of the Russian FSB (KGB) to Zawahiri, Osama Bin Laden’s sidekick.

    The FSB lawyer M Trepashkin who investigated those apartment bombings in Russia and said the FSB did it and not the Chechen separatists was in an amazing 1998 press conference with Litvinenko and is now getting real rough treatment.

    I don’t consider what I have found out the last word, but it is good to see what led up to this polonium poisoning and its POSSIBLE connections to Al Qaeda.

  9. crosspatch says:

    Anyone notice anything interesting about these “Baghdad Bodies” reports for March from Reuters?

    03/10/07 BAGHDAD – The bodies of 15 people were found shot dead in different parts of Baghdad on Saturday, a police source said.

    03/09/07 BAGHDAD – Ten bodies were found shot dead in different parts of Baghdad on Friday, apparent victims of sectarian death squads, a police source said.

    03/07/07 Baghdad – Police found 10 corpses all over the capital in the following neighborhoods: 3 in Amil, 2 in Baia, 1 in Mansour, 1 in Taji, 2 in Dora and 1 in Saidiyah.

    03/06/07 BAGHDAD – 25 bodies were found shot dead on Monday in different districts of Baghdad, police said.

    03/05/07 BAGHDAD – The bodies of 20 people were found shot dead and some showing signs of torture on Sunday in the western half of Baghdad known as Karkh, police said.

    03/04/07 BAGHDAD – A total of 10 bodies were found shot dead on Saturday in different districts of Baghdad, police said

    03/01/07 BAGHDAD – The bodies of 15 people were found shot dead in different parts of Baghdad in the past day, a police source said.

  10. crosspatch says:

    The answer is … every single one of those reports (and those are the total of all reports out so far for March) is an exact multiple of 5. 10 bodies, 15 bodies, 20 bodies … never 13 or 17 or 22. Odd that those reports should always be a multiple of 5. Just another indication to me that they could be manufactured.