Dec 08 2006

Order Of Contamination

Major Update: Bumping this to the top. As I predicted if this was a smuggling ring exposed by and accidental (and severe) contamination event the Russians involved would start to get seriously ill. We can now add Lugovoi to the list of those with a heavy dose of Polonium. It would seem he and Kuvton were close enough to the event that killed Litvinenko to get a serious contamination themselves. Did they get it at the event or from seeing Litvinenko right after the event. In any case it makes three seriously poisoned people and I would bet more will succumb soon. Now also should consider the scenario were there was more Polonium than just what exposed these people. Did it travel from the hotels and the multiple rooms to points elsewhere? Or was it combined into a single larger stash that is sitting someplace and possibly still contaminating people. This is the problem with this kind of substance – you sort of have to know the trail to detect the traces. So will Berezovsky or someone else show signs of poisoning to further trace the trail? Will someone at the security firms visited by Litvinenko or Lugovoi succumb? More later.

Update: It seems Kuvton is gravely ill and will easily become the second most contaminated victim of this incident. Now the police will need to retrace all his steps on Nov 1 as well. I think they will find he and Litvinenko at the Millenium Hotel sometime prior to the Scaramella meeting. – end update

I am taking a stab at the degree of contamination found to date on people and at locations to give some idea of the distance of a person or place from what I call ground zero, which is where Litvinenko may have been at the center of an accident handling the Polonium. First the human list from worst to least:

(1) Litvinenko with 50-100 times the lethal dose
(2) Kovtun who took ill and could be anywhere from 10-20 times the lethal dose (comparing him to Litvinenko and Scaramella)
(3) Lugovoi has taken ill and seems to be only slighty less contaminated the Kovtun
(4) Scaramella with 5 times the lethal dose, now out of hospital
(5) Marina Litvinenko – not hospitalized like Scaramella, possibly less than a lethal dose
(6) Millenium Bar Staff

This story notes the Millenium bar staff were many 1,000th’s the level found in Litvinenko. If he had 50 times the lethal dose, then they have s than 5% of a lethal dose.

Totally independentally we have contaminated sites in order of a completely “guestimated” contamination level based on how long they were shutdown (or are still shutdown)

(1) Millenium Hotel Room (Oct 30-Nov 3 Period)
(2) Millenium Hotel Bar
(3) Litvinenko Home
(4) Zakayev Car
(5) Sheraton Hotel Room (Oct 25-28 Period)
(6) Sushi Bar
(7) Berezovsky’s office
(8) Parkes Hotel in Knightsbridge (Oct 16-18 Period)
(9) 25 Grosvenor Street
(10) 58 Grosvenor Street
(11) RISC Management on Cavendish Place
(12) 3 2 Airplanes
(13) British Embassy
(14) Arsenal Stadium

These are just my estimates but they are helpful in determining who may bave been contaminated when. For example, I believe Kovtun and Litvinenko are the two prime vectors who were present at the incident in the Hotel room at the Millenium Hotel which appears to be a large, accidental contamination. They in turn trailed Polonium and infected secondary people like Scaramella and possibly Lugovoi. As time passed from the initial incident (which had to happen prior to the meeting with Scaramella) then potency of the trail detoriated. That is why the Millenium Bar staff and Litvinenko’s wife have fractions of a lethal dose and Scaramella as a 5 times a lethal dose.

For the record, I cannot see how all 7 bar staff at the Millenium Hotel Bar could have sniffed ‘vapours’ from Litvinenko’s drink. That seems a bit far fetched that each and every nose made it over his beer. But with Litvinenko, Kovtun and probably Lugovoi all trailing Polonium 210 then there is a more likely scenario for the contamination. I am wondering if these folks all worked behind the bar or serving on the floor (as opposed to in the back). Probably so.

Update: Well that question was answered fast.

Seven workers at a London hotel visited by ex-spy Alexander Litvinenko on the day he was poisoned have tested positive for low levels of radiation.

The Health Protection Agency said the staff who were working at the Pine Bar at the Millennium Hotel in Grosvenor Square on November 1 “appear to have been exposed to low levels of polonium-210”.

A statement said: “There is no health risk in the short term and in the long term the risk is judged to be very small on the basis of initial tests.”

The HPA said it is also testing staff who were working at the bar on October 31 and November 2.

Note they were exposed to low levels. If everyone at the bar was exposed to low levels as well then the poisoning event could not have taken place at the Millenium Bar (which I would wager is what we will find to be the case).

80 responses so far

80 Responses to “Order Of Contamination”

  1. topsecretk9@AJ says:

    Maybe like me they can’t see it. I didn’t think it went through.–

    Sue, I can’t yet…but it will show sooner or later.

  2. crosspatch says:

    I am still thinking they all realized they had contaminated themselves in the course of smuggling. They realized they probably had some time before any symptoms manifested themselves. They gave Litvinenko a HUGE dose so he would would develop symtoms first, they provided the smuggled letters to provide a cover story and a scapegoat, and they didn’t believe the contamination on the airliners and in the hotel rooms, etc. would ever be detected. The killed Litvinenko so they themselves could seek treatment without exposing their smuggling operation.

    If they died from the result of exposure from smuggling, there might be problems with insurance and other assetts. If they died from being contaminated from Litvinenko being murdered by some mysterious Russian group of ex-KGB, they were probably okay in legal financial terms.

    I still think they killed Litvinenko to provide cover for their own contamination and blamed it on the mysterious Russians. What is interesting is Scaramella. Anyone have a timeline of his activities before and after meeting with Litvinenko? Also, if Scaramella doesn’t come down seriously ill then it points to Scaramella being contaminated well AFTER Litvinenko was. If Scaramella was exposed to a much smaller dose later, testing on him could show a level of contamination that if the doctors assumed he got it on November 1, would lead them to believe he was exposed to a lot more than he really was. In other words, doctors would assume he had been eliminating the material over the course of a month so a small amount in urine in December would mean a larger amount in November.

  3. Enlightened says:

    I think Howard Dean has some ‘splainin to do. What a coincidence that he has met with Socialists in the EU – exactly what the reports have stated.

    Plus – I see some lefty bloggers starting to backpedal – “Talking isn’t a bad thing!. It’s a GOOD thing!”

    This is gonna get good.

    PS: Litvinenko was assassinated – staying on topic.

  4. Weight of Glory says:

    I have posted this before, but I have never posed a question to those leaning towards assassination. The following is a portion of a press release by the FBI regarding its creation of the WMD division, the very same division that is over in England helping with the investigation:

    “Added to the NSB will be the new Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Directorate, which consolidates WMD and counterproliferation initiatives. This new Directorate will study the consequences of a WMD attack, increase our level of preparedness, and coordinate the Government’s response in the event of a WMD attack in the continental United States. The WMD Directorate will be headed by Assistant Director Vahid Majidi. Dr. Majidi comes to the FBI from the Los Alamos National Laboratory where he headed the Chemistry Division, including such strategic programs as nuclear weapons-related research and non/counter-proliferation. He previously served as Chief Science Advisor to the Department of Justice.”

    My question is this: Why would our domestic federal law enforcement branch, which has been created to research our domestic preparedness in the event of a WMD attack within the continental U.S., be sent to England if this was nothing more than an assassination?

  5. Weight of Glory says:

    The reason why I post this question is because sometimes the characters involved in the investigation are as important as the characters at the other end of the investigation, when trying to determine what happened. And just as we are all trying to place the bad guys/victims in the right context, we must also find the proper places for the good guys. To ignore that is to miss half the equation.

  6. crosspatch says:

    “Why would our domestic federal law enforcement branch, which has been created to research our domestic preparedness in the event of a WMD attack within the continental U.S., be sent to England if this was nothing more than an assassination?”

    To learn more about polonium and how contamination is spread around in case of a release here?

  7. Enlightened says:

    WoG – A WMD was used in the crime – No matter if it was accidental or planned – I see nothing unusual about the FBI WMD division looking into the event.

  8. crosspatch says:

    In other words, if Litvinenko wasn’t killed, all of these guys were going to show up in hospitals dying of radiation poisoning and people were going to start wondering why and investigating THEM. If it is made to look like some mysterious hit on Litvinenko, then it is simple cross-contamination and nobody digs too deeply into their past activity … until contamination is discovered going back to October 16. That is the part I don’t think they planned on and will be their undoing.

  9. Lizarde1 says:

    CP why is Luguvoi still maintaining through his lawyer and telephone calls that he is relatively fine? Why doesn’t he exploit his own contamination and that of Kovtun? Why does he say the reports on Kovtun are probably incorrect? I am not understanding his reaction.

  10. crosspatch says:

    “why is Luguvoi still maintaining through his lawyer and telephone calls that he is relatively fine? ”

    Relative to what? Relative to Litvinenko he probably is fine. Relative to you, he is probably very sick. Read the links at the top of the thread.

    MOSCOW (Reuters) – Andrei Lugovoy, a contact of poisoned Russian ex-spy Alexander Litvinenko, is suffering from radiation poisoning, Interfax news agency said on Friday, quoting medical sources.

    “Disruption in the functioning of some organs affected by radiation nuclides has been found,” the agency quoted a source as saying. It said it had more than one source for the information, which came from Lugovoy’s medical notes.

    That doesn’t exactly sound “fine” to me.

  11. crosspatch says:

    But it is from Interfax, so take it with a grain.

  12. crosspatch says:

    We will know soon. It is much harder to get “conflicting reports” about one’s condition if they are dead.

  13. Enlightened says:

    Sorry but OT again – Ethics committee finds no wrongdoing in Foley scandal – just “negligence”.

  14. crosspatch says:

    I thought of that scenario while driving last night. I couldn’t for the life of me figure out why Scaramella would call this meeting out of the blue and show Litvinenko this document that really wasn’t all that important and could have been emailed. It told Litvinenko the same thing the same person had alreay told him 4 years earlier. Interesting that he ends up being “hit” the same day he is shown the “hit list”. It gave Litvinenko someone to blame while he was ill before he died. Also accounts for Boris’ PR effort too. Part of the smoke screen. Litvinenko might have very well thought the mysterious ex-KGB guys did it. But apparently he also suspected Scaramella of poisoning him.

    Scaramella had more poison, according to UK doctors, than could be obtained from “casual contact” with Livinenko.

  15. crosspatch says:

    More importantly, why would Scaramella to to London from Italy in oder to personally show this? I could see possibly running it over if he happened to be “in the neighborhood” but it doesn’t make sense to make a trip just for something that could have been emailed and discussed over the phone. I don’t see a reason why it had to be personally delivered.

  16. sammy small says:

    Assuming that this is a smuggling operation gone bad, I have two questions:
    1. Where is the remaining PO-210 left over from the accident,
    2. Who provided it and from what facility.

  17. AJStrata says:


    Apparently Scaramella was “in the neighborhood” at a conference IIRC.

  18. crosspatch says:

    Sammy, those are the $64K questions. Where did it come from, is there any more of it, do any more people have access to it. Those are more important questions than “who killed Litvinenko”.

  19. AJStrata says:


    My concern is the FBI are involved to help trace where the remaining PO-210 went.

  20. crosspatch says:


    Have you seen anything that documents Scaramella’s movements before and after the sushi bar meetings? Any contamination that can be attributed to Scaramella? I am seeing all these other people leaving a trail of contamination everywhere they go but not Scaramella even though he himself is supposed to be contaminated.

    Wonder if Scaramella slipped Litvinenko a package of a favorite brand of cigarettes while he met.