Dec 04 2006
The New Litvinenko Timeline
Update:More reporting on the fact that Russia’s sole Polonium-210 reactor has been idle for two years and a review of stocks and transports of nuclear material in Russia show no missing material.
Major Update: Breaking news says the hunt is on for more contamination sites in hotels. I was about to predict this (and should have) when compiling this post. If we have a smuggling ring that Lugovoi coordinates (he has been to London 12-13 times in the last year meeting with Litvinenko and possibly Berezovsky some number of times) then we would expect to see these hot spots in hotels where the material was being divided and distributed. This would probably put the nail in the assassination theories if more hotel sites were identified as hot spots and we find Litvinenko and Lugovoi associated with these spots. – end update
It is clear the Polonium trail spans several days from Oct 25th to Nov 3rd (which appears to be traces of Polonium coming into Russia and then traces outbound with Lugovoi). And there appears to be locations Litvinenko did not visit which were contaminated (the Hotel Rooms at the Sheraton Park). And there seems to be two hot spot hotels and numerous men ferrying between Russia and London associated with these hot spots. One would almost say there was a smuggling ring, and one would have to realize that the smuggling may have been intended to be INTO Russia to establish enough Polonium-210 for Chechen terrorists there. One thing is for sure, the amount of Polonium 210 we are seeing in Litvinenko and Scaramella alone is probably on the order of $50+ million dollars worth of material, and I would not be surprised if the total traces found could add up to twice that amount. With that much valuable material in play, anything is possible.
So Let’s look at the new Timeline as reporting in the last few days has attempted to lay it out.
October 25th – 28th: First is the earliest confirmed contamination at the Sheraton Park Lane Hotel,plus contamination possibly on flights coming from or going to Moscow:
…Mr Lugovoi says he returned to London on a BA flight on October 25. He again met Mr Litvinenko at the Sheraton Park Lane hotel. He returned to Moscow on October 28,…
It seems the Sheraton Park Lane Hotel is one of these major hot spots:
Police have also linked Mr Lugovoi to several locations across London which tested positive for polonium 210.
He visited the offices of security firm Erinys on October 16. They tested positive.
He is believed to have stayed at the Sheraton Park Lane hotel. The eighth floor was sealed off last week after it tested positive.
It is rumored that s many five rooms were contaminated as much of the 8th floor was cordoned off:
On the eighth floor of the Sheraton a policeman last week stood guard just outside the lift. To the left, the entire corridor was sealed off by a barrier. Behind it investigators were hard at work.
According to a note given to guests at the hotel, police had discovered traces of polonium-210 in five rooms.
Lugovoi and Litvinenko had many meetings during this trip (per the last link), according to Lugovoi:
“In the evening [of the next day] I met with Litvinenko in the lobby of the hotel and we had a drink together at the bar,†he said.
He met Litvinenko again in the hotel bar on the following evening. “Then early in the morning the next day October 28] I flew back to Moscow on BA, the flight which leaves either at 8 or 9am.â€
If this was a smuggling effort which was being coordinated by Lugovoi for Berezovsky and others, and Berezovsky used Litvinenko as a messenger and mule for most contacts with Lugovoi then this could be an earlier transaction to move Polonium-210. The key here is the five rooms. There is no need to have that much movement of a material you are trying to keep secret for an assassination. I cannot see Lugovoi going from room to room showing off his secret assassin’s weapon. But I can envision a shipment of Polonium-210 being split apart so it could travel in smaller amounts to where it was suppose to go (it could be going to multiple ‘customers’). Update: Reader Crosspatch (who knows his chemistry for sure) notes that it is possible this was a location to combine small amounts being smuggled by many people as well. Point taken. – end update. One thing is for sure, if Lugovoi wanted to kill Berezovsky and Litvinenko, he had an opportunity during this trip which he would not have again when he came in for the Arsenal – CSKA Moscow soccer game on November 1.
There is some confusion as to when Lugovoi met with Berezovsky, but it seems he may have been the initial person leaving traces of Polonium-210 around London – not Litvinenko. Per the last link again:
A further mystery arises because of conflicting evidence about Berezovsky’s Mayfair office, which is near the Sheraton. One source last week claimed that Lugovoi had visited the office during his trip to London between October 25 and 28. But another well-informed source said that Lugovoi had visited it on October 31 or November 1.
The timing is important, because whenever Lugovoi did visit the office he appears to have been strongly radioactive — traces have been found there.
He and Berezovsky greeted each other with a hug and Lugovoi sat on a sofa while they drank white wine. The source said: “When investigators later tested for radioactivity, the maximum activity was on the cream-coloured sofa where Lugovoi was sitting while he drank wine.â€
I am sure many people sat on that couch, including Litvinenko. Berezovsky’s office still remains a key element of this puzzle. Recall the Goldfarb has already confirmed Litvinenko visited the office, supposedly after the meeting with Scaramella. It seems many of the new people of interest are associated with the Sheraton Park and this initial period of contamination.
October 31st – November 1st: This is the period we all focused our attention on up until recently because of the remnants of the assassination theory which began when Thallium was the suspected poison. While many continue to follow that line of thinking, the dual contamination sites (and the shear amount and expense of the Polonium in question) seems to continuously erode that theory. But it is still hanging on and cannot be dismissed. During this period we get our second hotspot, and it is also in a hotel where Lugovoi is staying:
…[Lugovoi] flew to London three days later with his wife and son to watch the Arsenal-CSKA Moscow match on November 1. They stayed at the Millennium Hotel, opposite the US embassy in Grosvenor Square, and met Mr Litvinenko there again on November 1. They returned to Moscow along with several Russian acquaintances on November 3.
And again Litvinenko seems to be ‘checking in’ on Lugovoi while he slides in a last minute request for a meeting with Scaramella:
ON the morning of November 1 Litvinenko was given a lift into the centre of London by car. No trace of polonium has been found in that vehicle — an indicator that Litvinenko had not yet been poisoned.
Given the high radiation he suffered, he would have fallen ill rapidly. “It would have been within hours, a day at most,†said a source at the HPA. It was the evening of November 1 that he first became sick.
His movements that day are the subject of dispute. According to Oleg Gordievsky, a friend of the victim and former KGB officer, Litvinenko met Lugovoi and Kovtun in the morning.
Lugovoi and Kovtun, however, say this is not so: they met in the afternoon.“In the morning my family went off on a London tour,†said Lugovoi. “Dimitri and I went to a business meeting. I had spoken to Litvinenko and we had agreed to meet that day. He told me that he was first seeing an Italian acquaintance.â€
Again we see conflicts as to when Litvinenko met Lugovoi and when either or both met Berezovsky. It is important to note Litvinenko spent hours retracing his steps that fateful day. And cell phone records and CCTV cameras will have outlined much of his movements. And it seems evidence shows Litvinenko visited and contaminated Berezovsky’s office – and note the confirming witness present:
The documents passed between Scaramella and Litvinenko at Itsu also appear to have been contaminated.
After the meal, the Russian hurried to Berezovsky’s nearby office where he appeared, according to a well-informed source, in an “agitated†state.
He showed the documents to Berezovsky, who skimmed through them and passed them to a colleague. Litvinenko then photocopied them. Tests later found traces of radiation on the photocopying machine.
The Millenium hotel, as I mentioned, was the second hot spot found. What is interesting is we find these hot spots in Hotels which cater or are hosting a lot of Russians at the time of the contamination. Again this looks more like a smuggling effort to divide up a Polonium shipment amongst multiple folks. So did Litvinenko meet Lugovoi before he met Scaramella and that is when the ‘spill’ happened in the Millenium Hotel room? There was not enough time after the Scaramella meeting (ended around 3:45 PM) to go to Berezovsky’s office and then be at the Millenium hotel at 4:30.
Add to this one more important fact – apparently Russia stopped producing Polonium-210 two years ago and there is no missing Polonium-210 from their stocks presumably (which would be recorded and monitored by the IAEA). So we need to re-assess which path the Polonium-210 was transversing. Was it coming from Russia or going into Russia? And we should never forget Polonium-210’s use in crude nuclear bomb triggers. It is therefore considered a key element to a nuclear bomb. One of the few which needs to constantly be replaced given its short 138 day half life.
It’s a spill!
Are we still guessing about the contamination?
What if there was a broken vial. (You’d have to be a chemistry teacher, able to warn a classroom full of teenagers, “to be careful.”) In other words, so far none of the victims were trained scientists.
WHAT IF? What if there was a spill? And, a worry. That you’d have to substitute something else in a hurry? Let alone all the “spin stories.” Where a dying man does a McGuffin. (The Alfred Hitchkock trick of adding something useless; that keeps you busy figuring out the WRONG conclusion. Before the “conclusion.”)
No smell. No taste. And, people with a problem because “one of the vials leaked.”
So my two-cents? They built a substitute … but then they had to break seals. And, open bottles. Tossing substances about. That they were told were harmless. No need to fear contamination. Your Geiger Counter, nearby wasn’t “clicking,” either.
What a story! The TRUTH turns out to be better than fiction.
And, it is interesting to think that a product made in Iran, got trans-shipped through England, to go back to Russia. (With a pass at the McGuffin of “blaming” putin. Just as he’s being photographed with Bush. At a global main event function.)
The Pink Panther has nothing on this whopper. Oh, how well Peter Sellers could play this role.
First? You take CLUELESS.
Then a dab of macabre.
As to destinations? Always the schools. The Wahhabists are famous for hating schools! And, small kids. Because they represent the “next” generation.
Imagine exposures where kids don’t know it. And, they they lose their hair.
Credit absolutely must go to the Health agency (American), that sorts through the clues of diseases.
The story has legs.
AJ thank you thank you for organizing this – the 25 or so people in the world obssessed with this story would be quite miserable without you.
It may also be consistent, I think, with a hypothesis that (a) the polonium was used in some admixture or aerosolized form and (b) there were two attempts to kill Litvinov.
As for the Russian claim that they don’t make it any more, I think the email from my scientist friend indicates it could be crudely produced in a nuclear energy facility..and I think there is one in Krasnodarsk where first reports indicated the Brits had traced it.
In any event, from my research on the Plame case, I think all these international monitoring programs are not working terribly well on keeping track of this stuff.
Schools are vulnerable.
The terrorists hate schools. Because the kids represent the future. And, they don’t want kids to learn anything.
Imagine what it would be like if kids (after being exposed to something tasteless, and odorless, losing their hair? Who would know what happened?)
Is it possible that putin is finally on board a terror outcome that affects Moscow, as well as the West?
From Iran, perhaps? Meeting the spies in England. And, transporting things TO the Chechnyan’s?
With Litvenenko, (or his publicist, more likely), spinning this to touch putin. Just when bush and putin meet at a global gala. If TIMING is everything. The “boogymen” messed up!
What if they were aware of the spill? And, all this exposure was done to “mix something into the vials?” Even if they were using Geiger Counters for protection? The Alpha particles went unnoticed. Maybe, they thought they were safe? And, “smarter than springtime?”
The other question? Has what had been planned, been curtailed? Because the terrorirsts love to expose children. At schools. And, here? Kids could come home, and their hair doesn’t fall out for weeks.
How are we ever gonna get a handle on the terrorists, when the saudis are never punished for the crap they’ve exported around the world? Islam wasn’t always like this. But now? Wall to wall spread of Wahhabism. Maybe? Bush won’t be able to deliver a protection policy to them? Too any People are awake. And, listening.
per the Sky NEws link just for the record and not counting the new places:
Mr Reid also revealed traces of radiation have been found at 12 locations. Just 11 have been named.
They are: Itsu sushi restaurant in Piccadilly, the Millennium Hotel in Grosvenor Square, Mr Litvinenko’s north London home, Barnet General Hospital, University College Hospital, 25 Grosvenor Street, 58 Grosvenor Street, 7 Down Street, the Sheraton Hotel in Park Lane and the two grounded BA aircraft at Heathrow.
The Russian Claim that they no longer produce Polonium-210 can’t be serious. I don’t think Polonium-210 is used just for crude nuclear triggers. Here is what a Yale professor had to say on Polonium-210.
http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=13132
Anyhow, wherever there is a nuclear arsenal, there’s polonium-210. It has a half-life of 138 days, which means if you start with ten grams, in 138 days it will be down to five grams and in another 138 days it will be down to 2.5. It will be effectively gone in three and a half years. So they have to keep manufacturing it.
NIo: Do all nuclear states manufacture polonium?
KKT: Everyone uses polonium-210. People quickly realized they needed an initiator, and polonium-210 is the initiator of choice for a lot of reasons.
NIo: Does it make a difference if you manufacture a uranium bomb versus a plutonium bomb?
KKT: All of them need something to provide neutrons to initiate the reaction.
SBD
The Russians didn’t say they don’t produce it. They say that nuclear plant doesn’t produce it. They export 6 to 8 grams a month to the US.
Also, AJ, this is key … it is in your timeline but for some reason in the October 25 section:
“He visited the offices of security firm Erinys on October 16. They tested positive.”
There was a meeting between him at Litvinenko on the 17th, I believe, also at Erinys, according to one report. But with the quality of reporting we are getting, there could be some confusion of 16/17.
Also, AJ, the path might be in the opposite direction. Rather than a shipment being split up among several customers, it could be a shipment being COMBINED from multiple sources.
SBD,
Polonium is a poor choice for triggers because it needs to be replenished so much. I would guess it is not used anymore (given submarines are underwater for 6 months plus you can deduce Polonium is not used on their warheads). The Russians used it for the spacecraft for a time, but have moved onto non-nuclear designs. Polonium-210 is not used very much anymore from what I understand – only in fledgling nuclear powers (India and Pakistan?)
I just had a thought. What if this is a smuggling cartel and they decided to get rid of Litvinenko because he was planning a blackmail scheme on his own and they felt it would backfire on them? Or the killed him for being a genuine ass. What if chummy Lugovoi brought Litvinenko a Russian treat or even a bottle of genuine Russian vodka that he couldn’t get anywhere else and put polonium in it. Maybe he gave Litvinenko the whatever at a meeting that morning (which is why he denies there was a meeting). Maybe Litvinenko offered Scaramella a small sample of whatever thereby poisoning both of them. If this polonium is coming from Iran it probably cost the cartel nothing to use this poison. If this polonium is large enough to be divided and put some in a vodka bottle then the scale of this organization is huge and extremely scary.
Goldfarb is a biologist FYI from ST. Petersburg times that I can’t find now:
Goldfarb, who holds a doctorate in biology, said he had been briefly questioned by police. “But of course I can’t share any information. I only arrived in England 13 days after the poisoning,†he said.
Also, it’s possible the men were aware that one vial, worth $50 million to them, “got broken.”
Tasteless. Odorless. And, you’re in possession of other vials. Would you look to make a substitute? Would you open other vials, thinking the material was safe (as you’ve been told it doesn’t even travel through tissue paper). And, that’s how this stuff got airborne. Contaminating other places. Because the bottle themselves carried particles ON THE OUTSIDE. The more they “mixed.” The more they’d contaminate.
A “supply side” problem. Gone awry.
Why did Drudge link, yesterday, to four greek men? Also contaminated?
And, “travel.” I remember this summer, when Bulgaria STOPPED a truck from entering her borders. That travelled from England. To France. With radioactive matieral. What Bulgaria exposed by this “find” is that the E/U community is WIDE OPEN. While the “paperwork” was still WITH the truck driver! After travelling through Bulgaria? The paper trail would have been GONE.
IF there’s a sudden scourge. Where kids get exposed up ahead? And, their hair falls out? Exactly what would the outcome be? What would be considered a “breach?” … where what you DO, as a nation, ISN’T considered PRE-EMPTIVE. Bush in Iraq did something “PRE-EMPTIVE. It gives the Belgians all sorts of chances of arresting a country’s leaders. To be put on trial for “crimes against humanity.”
Where are we now?
Polonium is used mainly in industry at places such as textile mills, ammunition plants, grain mills, etc. to keep potentially explosive dust down and for other uses such as special brushes designed to remove dust.
The alpha particles neutralize any buildup of electrons from static electricity. Each alpha particle “wants” two electrons to become a helium atom. So they act like little electron sponges. It is also used to ionize or “charge” particles. An alpha particle striking a grain of dust would give it a “positive” charge causing it to be attracted to any surfaces nearby and being pulled out of the air. Similar principle to things such as the “Ionic Breeze” air freshener which uses electonic ionization. Polonium is better in an environment where a spark might cause an explosion and an electric unit might be unsuitable.
I believe Goldfarb is the source of the tea in the morning at the Millenium story but I sure can’t find the original article right now.
Whatever is going on , it seems the Brits have a rather good idea of the movement in London of everyone they are concerned about. And these news spots follow closely their interview with Shvets.
‘‘Italians find it hard to see Prodi as James Bond’’
Prodi announced his decision to sue on Thursday after newspapers published excerpts from intercepted phone calls between Scaramella and Paolo Guzzanti, a senator in Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and chairman of the Mitrokhin Commission. The conversations appear to reveal that Scaramella was tapping his sources among former officers of the KGB, and its successor FSB, for evidence of Prodi’s Soviet links.
“There’s no information that Prodi equals KGB agent, but we’re talking about friendly relations, cultivation, contacts,” Scaramella reportedly told Guzzanti last February. Guzzanti apparently welcomed the news as “a thermonuclear bomb” and passed it on to his own boss, Berlusconi. He warned the then prime minister that they would need proof that was capable of standing up in court but was allegedly reassured by a gung-ho Berlusconi: “Hang on a moment, in the meantime we force them to defend themselves.”
At the other end of the political spectrum, Guzzanti was equally furious. A parliamentarian carrying out his democratic duties had been spied upon and his private conversations published in the papers. The Mitrokhin chairman said he welcomed Prodi’s lawsuit.
“Let’s give the Italians a Christmas present. Let’s have a trial and give the Italians a piece of the truth that has been hidden from them. If Prodi comes to court we will be able to discuss the many obscure aspects of his career.”
One of them, according to Guzzanti, involves a claim made by Alexander Litvinenko himself to the Mitrokhin consultant Mario Scaramella. Discussing a possible bolt-hole in the West with an FSB colleague prior to his defection in 2000, Litvinenko was allegedly warned not to go to Italy. The country was full of KGB men, he was allegedly told, and one of them was Romano Prodi.
Other commentators have suggested that the description of a KGB agent in Professor Christopher Andrew’s book on the Mitrokhin Archive – a hoard of secret service documents smuggled out of Russia by Vasili Mitrokhin in 1992 – could tally with elements of Prodi’s personal biography.
“Probably the most important Line X agent at the end of the 1970s and beginning of the 1980s was Uchitel Teacher, who taught at a major university and was controlled by Anatoli Kuznetsov,” Andrew wrote. Uchitel had produced valuable intelligence on military aircraft, including Nato’s Tornado fighter, helicopters and airborne guidance systems, the Cambridge academic wrote.
Prodi is a university professor and was often referred to in political circles as the teacher.
Just a side note, it pretty ironic that Berlusconi also falls ill around the same time his buddy Scaramella falls ill as well.
SBD
Goldfarb is a lwyer. He might also be a biologist.
The tea was supposed to have been with Lugovoi.
here’s the source for the biology degree:
http://www.sptimes.ru/index.php?action_id=2&story_id=19601
Goldfarb, who holds a doctorate in biology, said he had been briefly questioned by police. “But of course I can’t share any information. I only arrived in England 13 days after the poisoning,†he said.
he may of course also be a lawyer
“AJ thank you thank you for organizing this – the 25 or so people in the world obssessed with this story would be quite miserable without you. ”
Agreed.
The idea of a smuggling group poisoning Litvinenko and Scaramella makes some sense to me, Scaramella has stopped shipments before and maybe Litvinenko worked with Western intelligence agencies in some way. On the other hand Scaramella’s previous success could have been a fraud if he’s actually connected with the smugglers
I still think the expense argument against assassination is irrelevant if a government is involved in the Po production. Also, Russia might take a different view toward Iran'[s nuclear development plans if they were diverting Po that was used for a dirty bomb to be detonated in Moscow.
Man, I am starting to get a really bad feeling about all of this. If this is smuggling and terrorists are involved, the potential is really scary. Worse than any “dirty bomb”.
It is equally possible that Scaramella or Scaramella and Litvinenko were investigating the smuggling operation themselves and therefore became targets for assassination, isn’t it? If Litvinenko suspected Lugovoi or any of his pals, he’d be wise to buddy up with them and keep track of their comings and goings.