Dec 01 2006

AJStrata’s Litvinenko Theory

OK, I am still of the mind this is not a botched assasination attempt but a botched nuclear contraband effort. I hate to defy the wisdom of my readers and I finally have had a personal breakthrough to understand the conflicting reporting. First off, for my theory to be right nuclear material should be coming into the UK not going out. This is important in establishing the flow of the material. Second, I think a majority of the contamination came from the source Polonium as it travelled with Litvinenko and others. Only certain spots seemed to show signs of contamination from bodily fluids, and only in urine. So here we go:

The first clue I got was when I read the Lugovoi apparently knew Berezovsky and was on good enough terms to ask him if he could have seats to the Arsenal- CSKA Moscow game. This led me to conclude that Lugovoi and someone in his entourage probably would be involved in any contraband activity.

Then we have the massive doses found in one of the Russian’s hotel room at the Millenium Hotel, as if a container had dropped and broken its seal. This led me to believe maybe this was the point where the contamination began, a night or two before November 1st when two fo the three Russians arrived.

Then I thought about the fact that an airline seat and overhead had been contaminated and that we have no indication it was on the in-bound or out-bound flights. If on the inbound flight this could be another point where the container seal failed (due to the pressure changes which can deplete a contact eye case of all fluid during a flight).

Then we have this story where Scaramella notes that Litvinenko had a meeting earlier in the morning (not day) with some people. Litvinenko, living off of Berezovsky’s nickle, was probably forced to do something to earn his keep besides right whiney books. My guess is he spent a lot of time confirming logistics and meeting points (check the cell phone records) for his days activities before heading out.

Finally we have reporting that claims Litvinenk met with the Russians before and after the Sushi meeting. So let’s just say both are right and go from there.

It is possible Litvinenko’s early morning meeting was with some of the Russians and he was there to pick up a package for Berezovsky. Lugovoi probably asked if he could get seats to the game at this stage, as an extra bonus. Sadly for all, the container had been breached the night or day before and was now leaking Polonium-210. So the contamination began in the Hotel the day before and made its first leap to Litvenko in the midday meeting at the Millenium Hotel.

Litvinenko then goes to the meeting with Scaramella. At sometime between the hotel and during the meeting Litvinenko inhales or ingests the lealing Polonium. Scaramella also ingests or inhales the substance at the Sushi Bar.

Litvinenko then goes to Berezovsky’s office and/or meets him someplace else where the container and the contamination makes its way into Berezovsky’s offices. This is key because under this theory the Polonium is still in London and still a threat. It is possible at this stage the damaged container is noticed and precautions or corrections are made to end the trail from the prime source. But clearly Litvinenko gets the OK from someone that the contraband is recieved and good and, sadly, no seats are available for the game that evening.

Litvinenko meets the Russians again at 4:00 PM in the Millenium Hotel Bar to confirm the deal, possibly pass on some electronic payment details, etc. He takes time to relieve himself in the bathroom, providing the contamination for that site. The Russians head of to the game. Note: The early morning meeting could have taken place anywhere – including Grosvenor 58, the one site still not firmly in the timeline or connected with an individual. That site also could have been contaminated by someone other than Litvinenko. Anyway, Litvinenko has at least one more stop to make.

We know Litvinenko went to Grosvenor 25 and contaminated that site before going home. This could have been residue on him or bodily fluids. Litvenko may have stopped at Grosvenor 58 at as well before heading home.

Scaramella and the Russians head out the UK over the next days un aware of the situation. When it becomes clear Litvinenko is ill and the contraband could be the source Berezovsky brings in his PR group and begins planning ways to divert attention towards Putin

Wild you say? Of course. I truly enjoy these kinds of puzzles. But like a good scientist this theory can predict some outcomes that will prove or disprove it in short order. If I am right then one of the Russians will become poisoned (the one whose room had the ‘spill’) and someone in the UK who ended up with the leaky container will succumb as well. If I am wrong only the Russian might show signs of illness. One thing I am sure authorities are checking is money transfers from the UK to Russia or somewhere neutral – a sign of payment for contraband services rendered. As I say – we shall see.

20 responses so far

20 Responses to “AJStrata’s Litvinenko Theory”

  1. Lizarde1 says:

    I am only worried that we won’t hear another peep about the Russians who are now back in Russia – if it suits Boris’ purpose we will hear via Goldfarb – if not, will the Russians tell us?

  2. Lizarde1 says:

    Ok they are getting more worried about the location at the Millenium and the sushi bar: Anyone who was at the Itsu restaurant, the Pine Bar or restaurant of the Millennium Hotel in London’s West End on November 1 is urged to ring NHS Direct on 0845 4647. Sky News
    The article also claims his symtoms are different: Sky’s Crime Correspondent Martin Brunt says Mr Scaramella has not shown the same symptoms as Mr Litvinenko, who suffered vomiting and loss of hair.

    In a statement the Health Protection Agency confirmed the environmental professor has a large amount of isotope in his body.

  3. crosspatch says:

    I would buy accidental contamination as a possible, even probable scenario. Bottom line is, though, where the hell is the polonium. That is what needs to be nailed down. That stuff MUST be located and secured.

    Accidental contamination or intentional contamination to “send a message” are what I would consider most likely. I could even see the other Russian in Ireland being poisoned after Litvinenko’s death being a ploy to cast more suspicion on Russia if the release is accidental and a result of nuclear materials trafficking gone wrong. A country attempting to build nuclear weapons detonators would pay nearly any price for that stuff and go to nearly any length to protect its sources of it. The stuff is perishable (it decays quickly) and detonators using polonium need regular refreshing with new material so a constant source of it is needed until they develop tritium detonators.

    Regardless of the drama surrounding the stuff, though, the source of it needs to be located quickly.

  4. jerry says:

    This seems the simplest explanation, assuming the players are motivated in this way and absolutely no one, over a period of several days, would be satisfied to never test for contamination. The vial would have to go through customs leaking (don’t know if this is possible), it would have to be taken through the airport leaking, it would have to be taken to the hotel and hidden without anyone worrying, it would have to be given to Litvinenko with him trusting it was safe (safe enough to take with him for lunch!), he’d have to carry it around London without setting off any radiation detectors, it would have to be take to BorisBadenough’s lair without anyone ever worrying about or testing for leakage, and Sasha would have to then happily go off to meet his friends and son without any worry that he had been contaminated sometime during a day of carrying around one of the most toxic things imaginable, then over the next days no one would ever notice that things had been contaminated. There’d also be one extremely contaminated jacket or pair of pants at home (even more contaminated than what bit killed Sasha) spreading more radiation all over things there. The alternative is that he was poisoned at the hotel or sushi restaurant, carried around all the radiation internally and unknowingly, with occasional contamination of friends and buildings he visited, as well as excreting large amounts of radiation in the toilet. This isn’t as simple because we don’t yet know much of anything about who would have done the poisoning.

  5. Lizarde1 says:

    Fox says hotel being evacuated that I posted about below so they can test it – may have been Scaramello’s hotel

  6. Lizarde1 says:

    Crosspatch – I read that any amount of polonium in a container or something over even 1/2 of gram (perhaps less) would heat up really really hot – for what that’s worth – in other words nobody has it in their pocket right now as it would have burned a hole in it

    The hotel is in East Sussex that has been evacuated per Fox

  7. Lizarde1 says:

    Tests have confirmed that a member of his family is now positive for a small amount of the substance per Fox just crossing wall – an adult – his wife?

  8. Lizarde1 says:

    make that wire not wall
    Those Russians have got to be contaminated….this is getting bigger by the minute – hotel evacuated – there will be a big plane scare in Italy etc etc

  9. crosspatch says:

    Yes, it would heat up hot unless diluted. It would probably be transported in solution, say polonium chloride or polonium nitrate or even polonium citrate. In other words, you dissolve the polonium in an acid to create a soluble salt and transport it in solution, not in the metalic form.

    The metalic form would be bad anyway because polonium is volitile and will evaporate into the air on you. In other words, the stuff in metalic form gives off poisonous fumes. I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near it outside of a lab setting designed to contain it. Even if you don’t get a dose strong enough to kill you outright, any exposure enough to be detected in urine or other body fluids would probably be a death sentance from eventual cancer. Polonium is also one of the worst carcinogens known to man.

  10. Enlightened says:

    Scaramella tested positive for a “significant amount” of P210 and he is now in a life threatening situation? Drudge reporting.

  11. crosspatch says:

    Also, such a solution of a poloium salt mixed with a penetrating agent such as DMSO or other even more effective ones can result in the material being passed through the skin. So this notion that it is not hazardous though skin contact is somewhat misleading. Yes, it its native form that is true, but anyone with access to a hardware store can make it much deadlier.

  12. crosspatch says:

    Oh, oh, I just had a bad thought. Remember a while bad the police in the UK did a big raid where they were looking for some kind of aerosol dispersal apparatus and didn’t find it? A polonium salt solution dispersed as a mist would be a nasty thing. Easily held in suspension in air, easily inhaled, would get all over everything and many of those not killed outright would die over the years from cancers. Lots of lung cancer in that scenario.

    I am really not going to be comfortable until they nail down the source of that polonium.

  13. Lizarde1 says:

    those Russians have got to be contaminated and remember GOLDFARB has refused to be tested.

  14. scotman says:

    Maybe a coincidence, but some of the contaminated sites are on Grosvenor Square, which is home to the US Embassy at one end, the Canadian Embassy at the other end, and the headquarters of the US Naval Forces in Europe.

  15. clarice says:

    Lugovoy says he met with Litvinenko to get some contacts for his security business. That’s at least as probable as a handoff to him of a container of polonium. Now, Lugovoy or one of his colleagues may have been working for the dark side. And the spill in one of those rooms suggest they had the stuff..What I’m saying is either theory still fits what facts we do know.

  16. crosspatch says:

    “he’d have to carry it around London without setting off any radiation detectors”

    This is alpha radiation which is easily shielded. If, for example, he had a vial of a polonium salt solution that had only leaked a drop inside his pocket, the fabric of his pants would shield the radiation. An alpha particle (the nucleus of a helium atom) is pretty big and as soon as it obtains electrons (which pretty much happens as soon as it touches something), it becomes an atom of helium.

  17. jerry says:

    Except AJs theory is that is was leaking, leaving a deadly path of particles around London, eventually killing Litvinenko and contaminating Scaramella.

  18. Snapple says:

    I read in a paper today that the Britsh have traced the polonium to a facility in Russia. Sorry but I don’t remember the link.

  19. Masters says:

    AJStrata’s Litvinenko theory has potential, but I think I see a flaw. If the theory is right, then: either (a) Litvinenko knew something about the nuclear material smuggling (and presumably that it was Polonium so that he did not worry about external exposure to the radiation); or (b) he did not know and he was just a runner.

    If (a), then when Litvinenko became ill, he would have realised he was suffering from radiation poisoning. For his own self-preservation, he would have told the hospitals the cause of his illness. It took the hospitals three weeks to identify the cause, which suggests he did not tell them anything. So (a) seems unlikely.

    If (b), then Litvinenko was being very naive. I doubt that the FSB employed people who were naive.